scholarly journals An uncertain future for woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou): The impact of climate change on winter distribution in Ontario

Rangifer ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Masood ◽  
Thomas M. Van Zuiden ◽  
Arthur R. Rodgers ◽  
Sapna Sharma
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus Caribou ◽  
Woodland Caribou ◽  
Linear Features ◽  
The Impact

Habitat alteration and climate change are two important environmental stressors posing increasing threats to woodland caribou, Rangifer tarandus caribou, in Ontario. Our first objective was to identify the importance of linear features, habitat, and climate on the occurrence of woodland caribou during the winter season using over 30 years of records (1980-2012). Our second objective was to forecast the impacts of climate change on the future occurrence and range of woodland caribou. Woodland caribou occurrence and environmental data collected during 1980 to 2012 were obtained from the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources (OMNR). Logistic regression models were used to identify the importance of linear features, habitat, and climate on woodland caribou. We then forecast future caribou occurrences using 126 future climate projections. Woodland caribou preferred coniferous forests and mixed forests that tended to be associated with increased lichen coverage, and regions with colder winters. Woodland caribou also avoided anthropogenically disturbed regions, such as areas associated with high road density or developed areas. Caribou range extent was projected to contract by 57.2-100% by 2050 and 58.9-100% by 2070. Furthermore, all 126 climate change scenarios forecast a range loss of at least 55% for woodland caribou in Ontario by 2050. We project complete loss of woodland caribou in Ontario if winter temperatures increase by more than 5.6°C by 2070. We found that woodland caribou in Ontario are sensitive to changes in climate and forecasted that an average of 95% of Ontario’s native wood­land caribou could become extirpated by 2070. The greatest extirpations were projected to occur in the northernmost regions of Ontario as well as northeastern Ontario, while regions in western Ontario were projected to have the lowest rates of extirpation. This underscores the importance of mitigating greenhouse gases as a means to protect this iconic species.

scholarly journals Urban Geometry Optimization to Mitigate Climate Change: Towards Energy-Efficient Buildings

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Hatem Mahmoud ◽  
Ayman Ragab
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Thermal Efficiency ◽  
Energy Demand ◽  
Building Blocks ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Urban Geometry ◽  
Outdoor Spaces ◽  
The Impact

The density of building blocks and insufficient greenery in cities tend to contribute dramatically not only to increased heat stress in the built environment but also to higher energy demand for cooling. Urban planners should, therefore, be conscious of their responsibility to reduce energy usage of buildings along with improving outdoor thermal efficiency. This study examines the impact of numerous proposed urban geometry cases on the thermal efficiency of outer spaces as well as the energy consumption of adjacent buildings under various climate change scenarios as representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 climate projections for New Aswan city in 2035. The investigation was performed at one of the most underutilized outdoor spaces on the new campus of Aswan University in New Aswan city. The potential reduction of heat stress was investigated so as to improve the thermal comfort of the investigated outdoor spaces, as well as energy savings based on the proposed strategies. Accordingly, the most appropriate scenario to be adopted to cope with the inevitable climate change was identified. The proposed scenarios were divided into four categories of parameters. In the first category, shelters partially (25–50% and 75%) covering the streets were used. The second category proposed dividing the space parallel or perpendicular to the existing buildings. The third category was a hybrid scenario of the first and second categories. In the fourth category, a green cover of grass was added. A coupling evaluation was applied utilizing ENVI-met v4.2 and Design-Builder v4.5 to measure and improve the thermal efficiency of the outdoor space and reduce the cooling energy. The results demonstrated that it is better to cover outdoor spaces with 50% of the overall area than transform outdoor spaces into canyons.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Manashi Paul ◽  
Sijal Dangol ◽  
Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽  
Amy R. Sapkota ◽  
Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

scholarly journals Estimating the potential impact of climate change on sunflower yield in the Konya province of Turkey

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-13
Author(s):  
Hudaverdi Gurkan ◽  
Vakhtang Shelia ◽  
Nilgun Bayraktar ◽  
Y. Ersoy Yildirim ◽  
Nebi Yesilekin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of climate change on agricultural productivity is difficult to assess. However, determining the possible effects of climate change is an absolute necessity for planning by decision-makers. The aim of the study was the evaluation of the CSM-CROPGRO-Sunflower model of DSSAT4.7 and the assessment of impact of climate change on sunflower yield under future climate projections. For this purpose, a 2-year sunflower field experiment was conducted under semi-arid conditions in the Konya province of Turkey. Rainfed and irrigated treatments were used for model analysis. For the assessment of impact of climate change, three global climate models and two representative concentration pathways, i.e. 4.5 and 8.5 were selected. The evaluation of the model showed that the model was able to simulate yield reasonably well, with normalized root mean square error of 1.3% for the irrigated treatment and 17.7% for the rainfed treatment, a d-index of 0.98 and a modelling efficiency of 0.93 for the overall model performance. For the climate change scenarios, the model predicted that yield will decrease in a range of 2.9–39.6% under rainfed conditions and will increase in a range of 7.4–38.5% under irrigated conditions. Results suggest that temperature increases due to climate change will cause a shortening of plant growth cycles. Projection results also confirmed that increasing temperatures due to climate change will cause an increase in sunflower water requirements in the future. Thus, the results reveal the necessity to apply adequate water management strategies for adaptation to climate change for sunflower production.

scholarly journals Sustainability of water uses in managed hydrosystems: human- and climate-induced changes for the mid-21st century

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 3129-3147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie Fabre ◽  
Denis Ruelland ◽  
Alain Dezetter ◽  
Benjamin Grouillet
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Management ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Environmental Flows ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Modeling Framework ◽  
Induced Changes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Water Uses

Abstract. This paper assesses the sustainability of planned water uses in mesoscale river basins under multiple climate change scenarios, and contributes to determining the possible causes of unsustainability. We propose an assessment grounded in real-world water management issues, with water management scenarios built in collaboration with local water agencies. Furthermore, we present an analysis through indicators that relate to management goals and present the implications of climate uncertainty for our results, furthering the significance of our study for water management. A modeling framework integrating hydro-climatic and human dynamics and accounting for interactions between resource and demand was applied in two basins of different scales and with contrasting water uses: the Herault (2500 km2, France) and the Ebro (85 000 km2, Spain) basins. Natural streamflow was evaluated using a conceptual hydrological model. A demand-driven reservoir management model was designed to account for streamflow regulations from the main dams. Human water demand was estimated from time series of demographic, socioeconomic and climatic data. Environmental flows were accounted for by defining streamflow thresholds under which withdrawals were strictly limited. Finally indicators comparing water availability to demand at strategic resource and demand nodes were computed. This framework was applied under different combinations of climatic and water use scenarios for the mid-21st to differentiate the impacts of climate- and human-induced changes on streamflow and water balance. Results showed that objective monthly environmental flows would be guaranteed in current climate conditions in both basins, yet in several areas this could imply limiting human water uses more than once every 5 years. The impact of the tested climate projections on both water availability and demand could question the water allocations and environmental requirements currently planned for the coming decades. Water shortages for human use could become more frequent and intense, and the pressure on water resources and aquatic ecosystems could intensify. The causes of unsustainability vary across sub-basins and scenarios, and in most areas results are highly dependent on the climate change scenario.

scholarly journals Global distribution of Sapindus habitats under current and future climate change scenarios

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiming Liu ◽  
Lianchun Wang ◽  
Caowen Sun ◽  
Benye Xi ◽  
Doudou Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Environmental Data ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Suitable Habitats

Abstract Sapindus (Sapindus L.) is a widely distributed economically important tree genus that provides biodiesel, biomedical and biochemical products. However, with climate change, deforestation, and economic development, Sapindus germplasm resources have been lost. Therefore, utilising historical environmental data and future climate projections from the BCC-CSM2-MR global climate database, we simulated the present and future global distributions of suitable habitats for Sapindus using a Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model. The estimated ecological thresholds for critical environmental factors were: a minimum temperature of 0–20°C in the coldest month, soil moisture levels of 40–140 mm, a mean temperature of 2–25°C in the driest quarter, a mean temperature of 19–28°C in the wettest quarter, and a soil pH of 5.6–7.6. The total suitable habitat area was 6059.97 × 104 km2, which was unevenly distributed across six continents. As greenhouse gas emissions increased over time, the area of suitable habitats contracted in lower latitudes and expanded in higher latitudes. Consequently, surveys and conservation should be prioritised in southern hemisphere areas which are in danger of becoming unsuitable. In contrast, other areas in northern and central America, China, and India can be used for conservation and large-scale cultivation in the future.

Impacts and uncertainties of climate change on streamflow of the Johor River Basin, Malaysia using a CMIP5 General Circulation Model ensemble

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 676-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mou Leong Tan ◽  
Darren L. Ficklin ◽  
Ab Latif Ibrahim ◽  
Zulkifli Yusop
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Efficiency Coefficient ◽  
Monthly Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) on streamflow in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia was assessed. Eighteen GCMs were evaluated, and the six that adequately simulated historical climate were selected for an ensemble of GCMs under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; 2.6 (low emissions), 4.5 (moderate emissions) and 8.5 (high emissions)) for three future time periods (2020s, 2050s and 2080s) as inputs into the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. We also quantified the uncertainties associated with GCM structure, greenhouse gas concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5), and prescribed increases of global temperature (1–6 °C) through streamflow changes. The SWAT model simulated historical monthly streamflow well, with a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.66 for calibration and 0.62 for validation. Under RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5, the results indicate that annual precipitation changes of 1.01 to 8.88% and annual temperature of 0.60–3.21 °C will lead to a projected annual streamflow ranging from 0.91 to 12.95% compared to the historical period. The study indicates multiple climate change scenarios are important for a robust hydrological impact assessment.

scholarly journals Using ultrasound measurements of rump fat to assess nutritional condition of woodland caribou in northern British Columbia, Canada

Rangifer ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 249 ◽  
Author(s):  
David D. Gustine ◽  
Katherine L. Parker ◽  
Douglas C. Heard
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Nutritional Condition ◽  
Invasive Technique ◽  
Rangifer Tarandus Caribou ◽  
Woodland Caribou ◽  
Portable Ultrasound ◽  
Ultrasound Machine ◽  
Non Invasive

Body reserves (fat and protein) of cervids are important to the reproductive success of individuals, and therefore may limit productivity of populations. We used a portable ultrasound machine to measure thickness of rump fat for 39 woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) captured in the winters (January–February) of 2003 and 2004. We compared thickness of rump fat between pregnant and non-pregnant individuals in the Besa-Prophet drainage of northern British Columbia, Canada. Thirty-eight of the 39 females captured in British Columbia were adults and 34 of the adult caribou were pregnant (89.5 ± 5.1%, x– ± binomial SE). Pregnant individuals had more rump fat (0.60 ± 0.067 cm) than nonpregnant animals (0.20 ± 0.029 cm). Recognizing that deposition and mobilization of fat vary with age and possibly across the winter season, ultrasonography can be used as a non-invasive technique in the field to assist in estimating body fat of caribou.

scholarly journals Analysis of Streamflow Response to Changing Climate Conditions Using SWAT Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Han Thi Oo ◽  
Win Win Zin ◽  
Cho Cho Thin Kyi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Dry Season ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Wet Season ◽  
The Impact

The understanding of climate change is curial for the security of hydrologic conditions of river basins and it is very important to study the climate change impacts on streamflow by analyzing the different climate scenarios with the help of the hydrological models. The main purpose of this study is to project the future climate impact on streamflow by using the SWAT model. The multi-model projections indicated that Upper Ayeyarwady River Basin is likely to become hotter in dry season under low rainfall intensity with increasing temperature and likely to become wetter but warmer in both rainy and winter season because of high rainfall intensity with increased temperature in future. The impact of climate change scenarios is predicted to decrease the annual streamflow by about 0.30 to 1.92% under RCP2.6, 5.59 to 7.29% under RCP4.5 and 10.43 to 11.92% under RCP8.5. Based on the change in high and low flow percentage with respect to the baseline period, the difference between high and low flow variation range will increase year by year based on future scenarios. Therefore, it can be concluded that it may occur more low flow in the dry season which leads to increase in water scarcity and drought and more high flow in the wet season which can cause flooding, water insecurity, stress, and other water-related disasters.

scholarly journals Potential Impacts of Future Climate Change Scenarios on Ground Subsidence

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio-Juan Collados-Lara ◽  
David Pulido-Velazquez ◽  
Rosa María Mateos ◽  
Pablo Ezquerro
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Subsidence ◽  
Ground Subsidence ◽  
Lower Percentage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Fine Grained ◽  
Fine Grained Material ◽  
The Impact

In this work, we developed a new method to assess the impact of climate change (CC) scenarios on land subsidence related to groundwater level depletion in detrital aquifers. The main goal of this work was to propose a parsimonious approach that could be applied for any case study. We also evaluated the methodology in a case study, the Vega de Granada aquifer (southern Spain). Historical subsidence rates were estimated using remote sensing techniques (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar, DInSAR). Local CC scenarios were generated by applying a bias correction approach. An equifeasible ensemble of the generated projections from different climatic models was also proposed. A simple water balance approach was applied to assess CC impacts on lumped global drawdowns due to future potential rainfall recharge and pumping. CC impacts were propagated to drawdowns within piezometers by applying the global delta change observed with the lumped assessment. Regression models were employed to estimate the impacts of these drawdowns in terms of land subsidence, as well as to analyze the influence of the fine-grained material in the aquifer. The results showed that a more linear behavior was observed for the cases with lower percentage of fine-grained material. The mean increase of the maximum subsidence rates in the considered wells for the future horizon (2016–2045) and the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario 8.5 was 54%. The main advantage of the proposed method is its applicability in cases with limited information. It is also appropriate for the study of wide areas to identify potential hot spots where more exhaustive analyses should be performed. The method will allow sustainable adaptation strategies in vulnerable areas during drought-critical periods to be assessed.

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