Can We Predict 4-year Graduation in Podiatric Medical School Using Admission Data?
Background: This study examined the predictive ability of educational background and demographic variables, available at the admission stage, to identify applicants who will graduate in 4 years from podiatric medical school. Methods: A logistic regression model was used to identify two predictors of 4-year graduation: age at matriculation and total Medical College Admission Test score. The model was cross-validated using a second independent sample from the same population. Cross-validation gives greater confidence that the results could be more generally applied. Results: Total Medical College Admission Test score was the strongest predictor of 4-year graduation, with age at matriculation being a statistically significant but weaker predictor. Conclusions: Despite the model’s capacity to predict 4-year graduation better than random assignment, a sufficient amount of error in prediction remained, suggesting that important predictors are missing from the model. Furthermore, the high rate of false-positives makes it inappropriate to use age and Medical College Admission Test score as admission screens in an attempt to eliminate attrition by not accepting at-risk students. (J Am Podiatr Med Assoc 102(6): 463–470, 2012)