scholarly journals Study of the stable components in extended-range forecasting for the coming 1030 days during the snow storm event in January 2008

2012 ◽  
Vol 61 (10) ◽  
pp. 109201
Author(s):  
Wang Kuo ◽  
Feng Guo-Lin ◽  
Sun Shu-Peng ◽  
Zheng Zhi-Hai
Keyword(s):  
Storm Event ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Snow Storm ◽  
Extended Range Forecasting

Robustness of Relations between the MJO and U.S. Tornado Occurrence

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (11) ◽  
pp. 3873-3884 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael K. Tippett
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Madden Julian Oscillation ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Tropical Variability ◽  
Extended Range ◽  
Leading Mode ◽  
Tornado Outbreaks ◽  
Extended Range Forecasting

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of tropical variability on subseasonal time scales and has predictable impacts in the extratropics. Whether or not the MJO has a discernible influence on U.S. tornado occurrence has important implications for the feasibility of extended-range forecasting of tornado activity. Interpretation and comparison of previous studies is difficult because of differing data periods, methods, and tornado activity metrics. Here, a previously described modulation of the frequency of violent tornado outbreaks (days with six or more tornadoes reported rated EF2 or greater) by the MJO is shown to be fairly robust to the addition or removal of years to the analysis period and to changes in the number of tornadoes used to define outbreak days, but is less robust to the choice of MJO index. Earlier findings of a statistically significant MJO signal in the frequency of days with at least one tornado report are shown to be incorrect. The reduction of the frequency of days with tornadoes rated EF1 and greater when MJO convection is present in the Maritime Continent and western Pacific is statistically significant in April and robust across varying thresholds of reliably reported tornado numbers and MJO indices.

Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting (DERF) at the National Meteorological Center

1989 ◽  
Vol 117 (7) ◽  
pp. 1604-1635 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Steven Tracton ◽  
Kingtse Mo ◽  
Wilbur Chen ◽  
Eugenia Kalnay ◽  
Robert Kistler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extended Range ◽  
Extended Range Forecasting
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