13. Capitalism and Financial Crises: A Long-Term Perspective

2016 ◽  
pp. 271-286
Keyword(s):  
Author(s):  
Anton Ovchinnikov ◽  
Elena Loutskina ◽  
Casey Lichtendahl ◽  
Jayson Lipsey ◽  
Brian Burke

In the early months of the 2007-08 financial crises, a loan manager faces a real estate financing decision. Should he approve a bullet structure three-year loan to a longstanding client, a legendary Texan developer? The developer, who near retirement downsized his business, is seeking financing for his only project: residential or commercial development on an attractive piece of land in suburban Houston. The loan manager considers the decision in light of the mortgage market turmoil, seeing commercial projects as safer, but also factoring that the residential market could bring higher returns if the market stabilizes soon. The manager collects the data and asks an analyst to assess the risks; that ultimately requires assessing the economics of both projects from both the bank’s and the developer’s perspectives. The bank could still change the interest rate on the loan to receive adequate compensation for the risk it carries, but the loan manager knows that doing so will change their long-term client willingness to take on the loan.


Econometrica ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 89 (3) ◽  
pp. 1361-1418
Author(s):  
Vadim Elenev ◽  
Tim Landvoigt ◽  
Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

How much capital should financial intermediaries hold? We propose a general equilibrium model with a financial sector that makes risky long‐term loans to firms, funded by deposits from savers. Government guarantees create a role for bank capital regulation. The model captures the sharp and persistent drop in macro‐economic aggregates and credit provision as well as the sharp change in credit spreads observed during financial crises. Policies requiring intermediaries to hold more capital reduce financial fragility, reduce the size of the financial and non‐financial sectors, and lower intermediary profits. They redistribute wealth from savers to the owners of banks and non‐financial firms. Pre‐crisis capital requirements are close to optimal. Counter‐cyclical capital requirements increase welfare.


2007 ◽  
Vol 52 (03) ◽  
pp. 363-402 ◽  
Author(s):  
PAUL S. L. YIP

This paper first documents the rationales behind the transitional exchange rate system reform adopted by China on 21 July 2005. It then outlines the theory behind the medium- and long-term exchange rate arrangements that could be adopted. Thereafter, the paper provides recommendations on supplementary packages that could increase the chance of a successful reform, and increase China's immunity and resilience against financial crises in the future. Finally, the paper discusses the market and economic developments after the transitional reform, and highlights that failure to check the stock market bubble and rampant property inflation could turn the initial success of the reform to an eventual failure and bring disasters to China in the longer future.


Author(s):  
Nikolaos Stoupos ◽  
Apostolos Kiohos

Traditionally, the gold has been approved as a safe-haven investment after the collapse of Breton Woods. The global investors especially prefer to rebalance their portfolios by purchasing gold or its derivatives during financial crises. This research explores realized dynamic linkages between gold and the advanced stock market indices, after the end of the 2008 economic recession. This chapter used the fractionally co-integrated ECM by utilizing intraday data from 2013 and thereafter. The empirical outcomes support that there is a negative-realized dynamics between the advanced stock markets and the gold's price in the short and in the long run. Specifically, the short-term dynamics of gold's price seems to be higher on the French and Japanese stock market indices. Lastly, the long-term dynamics of gold's price seems to be higher on the Dow Jones and the FTSE100.


2021 ◽  
pp. 131-164
Author(s):  
Jeffrey Fear ◽  
Christopher Kobrak

While the effect of financial crises on forming financial policy is well studied, less attention has been paid to how they produce ‘game changing’ turns that reinvent the context for regulatory reform, institutional design, and legitimate future conduct. The aftermath of crisis becomes an exercise in damage-limitation, but based on interpretation, debate, and narrative-building that creates a lasting memory of the crisis. We examine the contemporary perception and memory of the ‘Panic’ or ‘Founders Crisis’ of 1873 in the US and Germany, which had many common transatlantic origins. Yet the solutions could not have been more different because contemporaries created different narratives about this crisis. We highlight how the different language of legitimacy following the 1873 crisis reshaped long-term regulatory norms that discredited insiders in the US, yet encouraged committed, responsible insiders in Germany.


Author(s):  
Anton S. Ovchinnikov ◽  
Elena Loutskina

In the early months of the 2007-08 financial crises, a loan manager faces a real estate financing decision. Should he approve a bullet structure three-year loan to a longstanding client, a legendary Texan developer? The developer, who near retirement downsized his business, is seeking financing for his only project: residential or commercial development on an attractive piece of land in suburban Houston. The loan manager considers the decision in light of the mortgage market turmoil, seeing commercial projects as safer, but also factoring that the residential market could bring higher returns if the market stabilizes soon. The manager collects the data and asks an analyst to assess the risks; that ultimately requires assessing the economics of both projects from both the bank's and the developer's perspectives. The bank could still change the interest rate on the loan to receive adequate compensation for the risk it carries, but the loan manager knows that doing so will change their long-term client willingness to take on the loan.


2009 ◽  
Vol 210 ◽  
pp. 36-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell

It is useful to look at the distinction between transitory and permanent effects of a crisis. Financial crises normally bring on a recession, and the output costs can be large, as Hoggarth and Saporta (2001) discuss. In the majority of cases since 1970 in the OECD countries output returns to its trend level and there is no permanent effect. However, there may have been a permanent scar on the level of output in Japan after its crisis in the early 1990s, making the crisis and subsequent recession much more costly. This may reflect the nature and length of the crisis, as the banking sector was left to flounder for some years before its rescue toward the end of the crisis period. This appears to have left a permanent scar because risk premia were subsequently higher, and real asset prices have not fully recovered.


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