scholarly journals Hierarchical multistate models from population data: An application to parity statuses

Author(s):  
Robert Schoen

Hierarchical models are characterized by having N living states connected by N–1 rates of transfer. Demographic measures for such models can be calculated directly from counts of the number of persons in each state at two nearby points in time. Exploiting the ability of population stocks to determine the flows in hierarchical models expands the range of demographic analysis. The value of such analyses is illustrated by an application to childbearing, where the states of interest reflect the number of children a woman has born. Using Census data on the distribution of women by age and parity, a parity status life table for U.S. Women, 2005-2010, is constructed. That analysis shows that nearly a quarter of American women are likely to remain childless, with a 0-3 child pattern replacing the 2-4 child pattern of the past.

PeerJ ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. e2535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Schoen

Hierarchical models are characterized by havingNliving states connected byN− 1 rates of transfer. Demographic measures for such models can be calculated directly from counts of the number of persons in each state at two nearby points in time. Exploiting the ability of population stocks to determine the flows in hierarchical models expands the range of demographic analysis. The value of such analyses is illustrated by an application to childbearing, where the states of interest reflect the number of children a woman has born. Using Census data on the distribution of women by age and parity, a parity status life table for US Women, 2005–2010, is constructed. That analysis shows that nearly a quarter of American women are likely to remain childless, with a 0–3 child pattern replacing the 2–4 child pattern of the past.


2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Schoen

Hierarchical models are characterized by having N living states connected by N–1 rates of transfer. Demographic measures for such models can be calculated directly from counts of the number of persons in each state at two nearby points in time. Exploiting the ability of population stocks to determine the flows in hierarchical models expands the range of demographic analysis. The value of such analyses is illustrated by an application to childbearing, where the states of interest reflect the number of children a woman has born. Using Census data on the distribution of women by age and parity, a parity status life table for U.S. Women, 2005-2010, is constructed. That analysis shows that nearly a quarter of American women are likely to remain childless, with a 0-3 child pattern replacing the 2-4 child pattern of the past.


1971 ◽  
Vol 31 (3) ◽  
pp. 570-590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maris A. Vinovskis

Systematic demographic analysis of early America has been neglected until quite recently. As the interest in and need for demographic data on pre-1800 America have increased during the last five years, efforts have been made to remedy this situation.The most recent studies are utilizing such new techniques as family reconstitution to avoid the problems created by the lack of reliable census data and vital statistics. But these techniques yield results very slowly, and in any case their results are subject to methodological limitations that make it necessary to check them against larger aggregates. For these reasons we need to reexamine the usefulness and accuracy of earlier studies on colonial population that were based on aggregate data. Unfortunately, this latter task has not been adequately carried out during the recent burst of activity among demographers of early America.


2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix Zur Nieden ◽  
Bettina Sommer

The Federal Statistical Office’s 2010/12 general life table is the first to provide results on life expectancy based on census data for reunified Germany. This article therefore examines the question of how the revisions of the population figures from the 2011 census affected the measured life expectancy. To do so, we analysed both the official life tables based on the old intercensal population updates before the census and those based on the population data from the 2011 census. The method used to calculate the census-adjusted 2010/12 general life table was also transferred to separate life tables drawn up for the German and the foreign population. In this way, findings on the so-called “healthy migrant effect” can be discussed, ruling out possible errors in the intercensal population updates. These errors had previously been cited as the main causes for a distinctly longer life expectancy among the foreign population compared with the German population. As expected, a census-based calculation for the total population and for the German population resulted in only minor revisions to the life expectancy figures. The use of the census results does, however, distinctly alter the life expectancy of foreign women and men. An advantage of over 5 years in life expectancy at birth, measured on the basis of the old population data, needs to be revised to about 2.9 years for men and 2.1 years for women based on the 2011 census. The healthy migrant effect therefore cannot be traced back solely to data artefacts from the old intercensal population updates – even with revised data, the foreign population shows marked survival advantages.


1990 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 375-395
Author(s):  
Ian Timæus

ABSTRACTThe determinants of the number of children in local authority care in England are examined using methods that distinguish the implications of current flows into and out of care from the continuing impact of past decisions. In the long term, the decline in the admission rate and the time that children can expect to spend in care between 1977 and 1986 would produce a 39 per cent fall in the number of children in care from that implied by flows into and out of care in 1977–8. These changes have been compounded by an 11 per cent decline in the size of the child population. In fact, though, the higher level of admissions in the past means that the number in care fell by only 29 per cent during this period. If admissions and rates of leaving care have remained at their 1985–6 levels since then, the number of children in care will drop by around 8,300 to under 59,000 in 1991.


Author(s):  
Brian Foley ◽  
Tony Champion ◽  
Ian Shuttleworth

AbstractThe paper compares and contrasts internal migration measured by healthcard-based administrative data with census figures. This is useful because the collection of population data, its processing, and its dissemination by statistical agencies is becoming more reliant on administrative data. Statistical agencies already use healthcard data to make migration estimates and are increasingly confident about local population estimates from administrative sources. This analysis goes further than this work as it assesses how far healthcard data can produce reliable data products of the kind to which academics are accustomed. It does this by examining migration events versus transitions over a full intercensal period; population flows into and out of small areas; and the extent to which it produces microdata on migration equivalent to that in the census. It is shown that for most demographic groups and places healthcard data is an adequate substitute for census-based migration counts, the exceptions being for student households and younger people. However, census-like information is still needed to provide covariates for analysis and this will still be required whatever the future of the traditional census.


2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Frédéric Courtois ◽  
Sandrine Péneau ◽  
Benoît Salanave ◽  
Valentina A. Andreeva ◽  
Marie Françoise Roland-Cachera ◽  
...  

Abstract Background France has one of the lowest rates in the world regarding breastfeeding initiation and duration. Few studies have explored breastfeeding practices in France since the middle of the twentieth century, or following from initiation to cessation. The purpose of our study was to determine trends in breastfeeding over the past decades regarding public health recommendations, and to examine mothers’ perceptions about factors known to have an impact on breastfeeding support and cessation. Methods From the NutriNet-Santé cohort, 29,953 parous women (launched in 2009 to study relation between nutrition and health), were included in the present study. Using web-questionnaires, they were asked retrospectively if they had breastfed their youngest child or not, and if so, the duration of exclusive and total breastfeeding. For those who had breastfed, we investigated their perceptions about support at initiation and during the entire breastfeeding period and reasons for breastfeeding cessation. We also asked those who did not breastfeed about their perceptions and reasons for infant formula feeding their youngest child. Analyses were weighted according to the French census data. Results In the NutriNet-Santé cohort, 67.3% of mothers breastfed their youngest child. The proportion of breastfed children increased over the past few decades, from 55.0% (95% CI 54.3, 55.6) in the 1970s to 82.9% (82.4, 83.4) in the 2010s. Total and exclusive breastfeeding duration went from 3.3 months and 2.4 months respectively in the 1970s to 5.9 months and 3.2 months respectively in the 2010s. Most mothers felt supported at initiation and during the breastfeeding period. A reported desire to have breastfed longer than two months was 59.5%. Mothers who did not breastfeed did it by choice (64.3%). They did not feel guilty (78.2%) and did not perceive a problem not to breastfeed (58.8%), but almost half of them would have liked to have breastfed (45.9%). Conclusion Breastfeeding duration has increased in the past decades but did not reach the public health recommendations threshold. Targets other than mothers have to be considered for breastfeeding education, like the partner and her environment, to increase breastfeeding practices. Trial registration The study was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT03335644).


1989 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 377-430
Author(s):  
Maureen Anne MacFarlane

Within the past few years a number of children have been excluded from attending public school because they are linked to AIDS. School boards have justified their decisions to exclude these children on the basis that protecting the public's health, safety and welfare outweighs the rights of these children. Most courts have rejected this justification and have held that either under the equal protection clause of the Constitution or section 504 of the Rehabilitaiton Act of 1973, children cannot be excluded from the classroom solely because they are linked to AIDS.This Note discusses both section 504 and equal protection analyses used by the courts. When analyzing a school board's decision to exclude an AIDS-linked child from the classroom, most courts have used a higher level of scrutiny and individualized inquiry in order to ensure that the rights of both the AIDS-linked child and his or her uninfected classmates and teachers are protected.After applying these analyses to a hypothetical case, this Note concludes that both section 504 and the equal protection clause ensure that AIDS-linked children will not be barred from the classroom unless the presence of additional factors increases the risk of these children transmitting the virus to others.


Author(s):  
Nurkhalik Wahdanial Asbara

Technological developments and changes in government systems are developing rapidly. Both of these lead to efforts to carry out duties, protect functions and serve the community. This encourages the government to take various adjustment steps quickly in line with the dynamics of development that occur. One of them is through a population census. The population census is an important issue that must be handled properly. The population census in this study takes population data in an area based on the number of male population, female population, ratio, and population density. The data was taken and submitted to the Makassar City Statistics Agency. Population Census is a presentation of information that has the ability to present accurate information, and helps facilitate the search for a population census data. The population census is carried out every 5 years which is carried out by census officers to carry out data collection to each resident's house, the data collection process is carried out by conventional recording and submitting it to the central statistics agency for database entry. With this application, it is expected to provide convenience to Population census officers to perform the process of inputting population data and the data is directly stored in the database without having to return to the office to input again.


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