scholarly journals Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian L Althaus
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Outbreak Detection ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Net Reproduction

In 2014, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases. I fitted an EVD transmission model to data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 = 5.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.0-6.7). The model suggests that the net reproduction number Rt fell below unity 28 days (95% CI: 25-34 days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This illustrates that early outbreak detection and rapid implementation of control interventions are crucial for preventing wider spread of EVD in rural areas.

scholarly journals Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian L Althaus
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Outbreak Detection ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Net Reproduction

In 2014, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases. I fitted an EVD transmission model to data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction number R0 = 5.2 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.0-6.7). The model suggests that the net reproduction number Rt fell below unity 28 days (95% CI: 25-34 days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This illustrates that early outbreak detection and rapid implementation of control interventions are crucial for preventing wider spread of EVD in rural areas.

scholarly journals Rapid drop in the reproduction number during the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo

PeerJ ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. e1418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian L. Althaus
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Net Reproduction ◽  
Rapid Drop

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) experienced a confined rural outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) with 69 reported cases from July to October 2014. Understanding the transmission dynamics during the outbreak can provide important information for anticipating and controlling future EVD epidemics. I fitted an EVD transmission model to previously published data of this outbreak and estimated the basic reproduction numberR0= 5.2 (95% CI [4.0–6.7]). The model suggests that the net reproduction numberRtfell below unity 28 days (95% CI [25–34] days) after the onset of symptoms in the index case. This study adds to previous epidemiological descriptions of the 2014 EVD outbreak in DRC, and is consistent with the notion that a rapid implementation of control interventions helped reduce further spread.

scholarly journals Real-time projections of Ebola outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use in Équateur, Democratic Republic of Congo, as of May 27, 2018

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Daniel Kelly ◽  
Lee Worden ◽  
Rae Wannier ◽  
Nicole A. Hoff ◽  
Patrick Mukadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Model ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Credible Interval ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Outbreak Size

AbstractBackgroundAs of May 27, 2018, 54 cases of Ebola virus disease (EVD) were reported in Équateur Province, Democratic Republic of Congo. We used reported case counts and time series from prior outbreaks to estimate the current outbreak size and duration with and without vaccine use.MethodsWe modeled Ebola virus transmission using a stochastic branching process model with a negative binomial distribution, using both estimates of reproduction number R declining from supercritical to subcritical derived from past Ebola outbreaks, as well as a particle filtering method to generate a probabilistic projection of the future course of the outbreak conditioned on its reported trajectory to date; modeled using 0%, 44%, and 62% estimates of vaccination coverage. Additionally, we used the time series for 18 prior Ebola outbreaks from 1976 to 2016 to parameterize a regression model predicting the outbreak size from the number of observed cases from April 4 to May 27.ResultsWith the stochastic transmission model, we projected a median outbreak size of 78 EVD cases (95% credible interval: 52, 125.4), 86 cases (95% credible interval: 53, 174.3), and 91 cases (95% credible interval: 52, 843.5), using 62%, 44%, and 0% estimates of vaccination coverage. With the regression model, we estimated a median size of 85.0 cases (95% prediction interval: 53.5, 216.6).ConclusionsThis outbreak has the potential to be the largest outbreak in DRC since 2007. Vaccines are projected to limit outbreak size and duration but are only part of prevention, control, and care strategies.

scholarly journals Challenges of ongoing Covid and Ebola epidemics amidst violence and other epidemics in DR Congo

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
A Amorim Tomaz ◽  
F I P M Bastos ◽  
R S Santos ◽  
M Mossoko
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Emerging Diseases ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Conflict Zone

Abstract The world has seen outbreaks of emergency and re-emergency of infectious diseases very often in the past years, many of them with devastating consequences for low-income countries with fragile or nonexistent health system, covid-19 being by now the last of a long series of global challenges. Although it is a huge challenge for the whole world, one country is facing it together with a current Ebola outbreak plus violence and some other diseases. The Democratic Republic of Congo is facing the immediate effects of both epidemics as illness and death, however its consequences at the political and economic level are usually more complex and may be protracted. Following the debate on why poor countries remain poor, it is maybe useful to rethink poverty and inequality keeping in mind Amartya Sen's seminal concepts: development must comprise freedom and respect for human rights and institutions at the price of fostering a vicious circle of (re)emerging diseases and structural violence. Ebola epidemics, that usually face some challenges when they happen alone, now together with malaria, measles, plague and covid, on top of violence in some areas, the disease sees its protocols harmed: for covid the orientation is to stay isolated, for Ebola the response includes tracking contacts. What means coming with a team to field to do the mapping in the middle of a confinement. The surveillance for such many epidemics on top of violence and humanitarian crisis makes the Democratic Republic of Congo one of the most worrying countries in terms of consequences of the Covid outbreak. Key messages Study of the association between the Covid, Ebola virus disease outbreak and the at-risk population living in the conflict zone in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. The study presents the difficulties that the population encountered in the face of restrictions imposed by armed groups to reach health services during an Ebola outbreak, in a conflict zone.

scholarly journals 2017 Outbreak of Ebola Virus Disease in Northern Democratic Republic of Congo

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justus Nsio ◽  
Jimmy Kapetshi ◽  
Sheila Makiala ◽  
Frederic Raymond ◽  
Gaston Tshapenda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Ebola Virus Disease ◽  
Republic Of Congo

Ebola virus outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo, and the potential for further transmission through commercial air travel

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashleigh R Tuite ◽  
Alexander G Watts ◽  
Kamran Khan ◽  
Isaac I Bogoch
Keyword(s):  
Ebola Virus ◽  
Democratic Republic ◽  
Democratic Republic Of Congo ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Time Frame ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Republic Of Congo ◽  
Final Destination ◽  
North Kivu

Abstract Background The 2018–2019 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in North Kivu and Ituri provinces, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), continues to spread. The recent discovery of cases in Uganda and in Goma, a major city in the eastern DRC, raises concern for potential EVD transmission in distant locales via commercial air travel. Methods We examined air travel patterns from the affected region with itinerary-level data from the International Air Transport Association for the year 2018 between July and October, inclusive. We focused on three scenarios: (i) travel from Beni airport, (ii) travel from Beni, Goma and Bunia airports and (iii) travel from Beni, Goma and Bunia, and Kigali airports. We evaluated country-level Infectious Disease Vulnerability Index (IDVI) scores for traveller destinations. Results There were 2255 commercial air passengers departing from Beni Airport during the specified time frame, all with domestic destinations, and 55% of which were to Goma. A total of 29 777 passengers travelled from Beni, Bunia and Goma airports during this time frame, with most travel (94.6%) departing from Goma Airport. A total of 72.4% of passengers’ final destination from these three airports were within the DRC, primarily to Kinshasa. There were 166 281 outbound passengers from Beni, Bunia, Goma and Kigali airports with the majority (82.1%) of passengers departing from Kigali. The most frequent destinations from these airports were Nairobi, Kinshasa and Entebbe. Eight of the 10 destinations with greatest passenger volumes are to countries with IDVI scores less than 0.4. Conclusion There is little commercial airline connectivity from the current EVD-affected area; however, larger cities in DRC and throughout East Africa should be aware of the low potential for EVD importation through this route. Most countries at greatest risk for EVD importation have limited capacity to manage these cases.

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