scholarly journals Le taux de croissance de l’offre de monnaie et arbitrage entre le taux d’inflation et le taux de chômage au Canada

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 397-410
Author(s):  
Maurice N. Marchon
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Real Output ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Trade Off ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper presents simulations results using a "Modified St. Louis Model" for Canada. These simulations identify opportunities of trade-off between inflation and unemployment rate. They reveal very slim opportunities of trade-off and demonstrate that any short-term gain in real output caused by monetary stimulus will have to be paid in term of compensating slower output growth to reduce inflationary expectations. This situation of no real trade-off shows up even if the model does not fully endogenize the exchange rate and international trade feedback of changes in money supply growth rate.

scholarly journals Analysis of Effect Macro Variable on International Trade of Indonesia

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 228
Author(s):  
Evania Rahma Octavia ◽  
Dwi Wulandari
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Macro Variables

This study aims to determine the effect of macro variables which include Indonesia's real gross domestic income, money supply, consumer price index and interest rates on international trade mediated by the exchange rate of rupiah against the dollar. This type of research is descriptive research with quantitative approach. Determination of the sample based on quarterly time series data 2010-2014. This study uses path analysis. The results showed domestic gross product, the money supply, and interest rates together  have a significant effect on the exchange rate but the consumer price index do not have significant effect on the exchange rate. The results also show that the exchange rate has no significant effect on imports and exports. 

scholarly journals PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA TAHUN 2015-2019

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 88-99
Author(s):  
Feby Kinanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of macroeconomic variables including the open unemployment rate, trade balance, inflation rate and the rupiah exchange rate against the dollar on Indonesian economic growth by using the ECM error correction model approach to see the long-term and short-term relationships that influence macro variables on economic growth. , in the long term the open unemployment rate variable, the trade balance, the inflation rate have a negative effect while the exchange rate has a positive effect, while in the short term the open unemployment rate, the inflation rate and the exchange rate have a negative effect while the trade balance has a positive effect.   Keywords: Economic Growth, Open Unemployment Rate, Trade Balance, Inflation, Exchange Rate

scholarly journals PENGARUH INFLASI, JUB, SBI, SERTA CADANGAN DEVISA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TAHUN 2017-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-72
Author(s):  
Duwik Tri Utami ◽  
Fitrah Sari Islami
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Indonesia's economy refers to an open economy. In conducting international trade, countries must compare their currencies with currencies belonging to other countries. Where, the United States currency, namely the dollar, is still the standard of world exchange rates and is used in international transactions. The effect of fluctuations in the exchange rate of the rupiah with the dollar is the occurrence of depreciation or appreciation which will affect Indonesia's economic activities. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of inflation, the money supply (M2), the SBI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves on the rupiah exchange rate in the short and long term. The variables that are thought to be able to influence changes in the rupiah exchange rate are the inflation rate, the money supply (M2), the SBI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves. This research was conducted during January 2017 to December 2020, using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The result is a long-term and short-term relationship. In the short term, foreign exchange reserves and the money supply (M2) significantly affect the exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the long term, the SBI interest rate, money supply (M2), and foreign exchange reserves significantly affect the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Stabilisation policies in Ukraine in the time of the COVID-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (3) ◽  
pp. 99-113
Author(s):  
POLYAKOVA Juliia POLYAKOVA Juliia ◽  
◽  
Solomiya SOKURENKO ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Explanatory Factors ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Stabilization Policies ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This paper aims at both theoretical and empirical assessment of stabilization policies in Ukraine in the wake of a contractionary macroeconomic shock of the COVID-19 pandemic. Various aspects of fiscal and monetary policies are analyzed within the theoretical framework of a dynamic AD–AS model with a focus on the exchange rate effects. It is demonstrated that output effects of fiscal and monetary policies depend on inflationary inertia measured as the correlation between present and lagged inflation. Depreciation of the exchange rate is inflationary and can be contractionary under both low and high inflationary inertia. For Ukraine, it is found that the supply-side recovery is of priority, in contrast to the majority of industrial countries where insufficient demand is the biggest problem. Using the 2SLS estimator, it is obtained that a non-inflationary increase in the GDP growth rate is expected under a decrease in the excessive money supply combined with the exchange rate appreciation. As the exchange rate is still undervalued due to effects of the large devaluation of 2014–2015, a combination of conservative monetary policy and moderate exchange rate appreciation should not raise any concerns. Our results reject frequent speculations that a local appreciation of the hryvna has been responsible for the GDP slowdown since the middle of 2019. Fiscal policy seems to be neutral in respect to both inflation and GDP. Among other results, it is found that an increase of the Euro area output by 1% contributes to the GDP growth rate in Ukraine by 0,6-0,7 percentage points. As suggested by a dummy variable, a deep economic slump of 2014-2015 was not caused by structural shifts in the Ukraine’s economy, with a large depreciation of the hryvna and excessive money supply being the most relevant explanatory factors.

Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Dollar Amerika Serikat Terhadap Rupiah Tahun 2000–2013

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 177-191
Author(s):  
Rizki Rahma Kusumadewi ◽  
Wahyu Widayat
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Arch Model ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Exchange rate is one tool to measure a country’s economic conditions. The growth of a stable currency value indicates that the country has a relatively good economic conditions or stable. This study has the purpose to analyze the factors that affect the exchange rate of the Indonesian Rupiah against the United States Dollar in the period of 2000-2013. The data used in this study is a secondary data which are time series data, made up of exports, imports, inflation, the BI rate, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and the money supply (M1) in the quarter base, from first quarter on 2000 to fourth quarter on 2013. Regression model time series data used the ARCH-GARCH with ARCH model selection indicates that the variables that significantly influence the exchange rate are exports, inflation, the central bank rate and the money supply (M1). Whereas import and GDP did not give any influence.

International trade: Research of the reasons for the fall

2019 ◽  
pp. 79-91 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. S. Nazarov ◽  
S. S. Lazaryan ◽  
I. V. Nikonov ◽  
A. I. Votinov
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Value Chains ◽  
Value Chains ◽  
Negative Contribution ◽  
Basic Commodity ◽  
The Impact

The article assesses the impact of various factors on the growth rate of international trade. Many experts interpreted the cross-border flows of goods decline against the backdrop of a growing global economy as an alarming sign that indicates a slowdown in the processes of globalization. To determine the reasons for the dynamics of international trade, the decompositions of its growth rate were carried out and allowed to single out the effect of the dollar exchange rate, the commodities prices and global value chains on the change in the volume of trade. As a result, it was discovered that the most part of the dynamics of international trade is due to fluctuations in the exchange rate of the dollar and prices for basic commodity groups. The negative contribution of trade within global value chains in 2014 was also revealed. During the investigated period (2000—2014), such a picture was observed only in the crisis periods, which may indicate the beginning of structural changes in the world trade.

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

العلاقة التبادلية بين سعر الصرف وأسعار الأسهم دراسة تطبيقية في سوق اسطنبول للأوراق المالية للمدة 2005-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
سعدالله ألنعيمي
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Reciprocal Relationship ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Theoretical Interpretation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate

The study aims to analyzing the reciprocal relationship between the nominal exchange rate of the Turkish lira versus the U.S. dollar and the stock prices of the companies listed on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) expressed in the general market index for the period from 2005 to 2020 with 192 monthly observations, based on the traditional theory and the theory of portfolio balance model in theoretical interpretation for that relationship, aiming to identify the effect of the exchange rate on stock prices, as well as to analyze the causal relationship between those variables and to identify which of them is the cause or which is the result, using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The research found that the exchange rate has a positive effect on stock prices in the long term, despite the emergence of the negative impact in the short term, but the long-term relationship has corrected the course of the short-term relationship with a time period not exceeding one month, in addition to proving that this relationship takes one direction. From the exchange rate towards stock prices, that is, the exchange rate is the reason and stock prices are the result, therefore the results of this research helps investors to predict future trends of stock prices depending on the exchange rate changes, and it also enables the companies, especially those with foreign transactions, to manage price risks the exchange rate in order to avoid its negative impact on its share price, as it represents an obstacle to achieving its main goal of maximizing the share price

scholarly journals Monetary Transmission Channel, Oil Price Shock and the Manufacturing Sector in Nigeria

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-113
Author(s):  
Adeleke Omolade ◽  
Philip Nwosa ◽  
Harold Ngalawa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstract Research background: The need for diversification of the Nigerian economy has been emphasized and the manufacturing sector has a major role in this. Being an oil producing country, monetary policy is an important macroeconomic policy that has always been used to manage the influence of oil price shock on the manufacturing sector. Purpose: The study examines the relationship between oil price shock, the monetary transmission mechanism and manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. Research methodology: The study applied the structural vector auto regression (SVAR) modelling technique and a descriptive analysis. Results: The results of the study show that the exchange rate is mostly affected by the oil price shock, while the monetary policy instruments and inflation rate are also very responsive to the exchange rate shock. The manufacturing sector output growth has also been shown to be strongly affected by the inflation rate and monetary policy shocks. Novelty: The study has revealed the most effective channel via which oil price shocks affect manufacturing output. The exchange rate channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism is the most significant channel through which oil price shock affects manufacturing output growth in Nigeria. This shows that effective management of the exchange rate policy via the appropriate monetary policy approach can be used to minimize the adverse effect of oil price shocks on Nigerian manufacturing output.

scholarly journals International Trade and Economic Misery in African Countries with Low Human Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 212-243
Author(s):  
Uchechukwu C. Nwogwugwu ◽  
Collins C. Umeghalu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Agreements ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Total Export ◽  
Manufacture Export ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Per Capita

Puzzled by the demeaning level of poverty most African countries continue to grapple with despite their extensive participation in international trade, the study attempts to examine the encumbrances that tend to impede African countries from optimally reaping the developmental gains inherent in partaking in international trade, which seems to also worsen the economic misery the inhabitants endlessly contend with. The System Generalized Method of Moments (System-GMM) estimation technique was used in the study which involves 17 African countries and spans from 1995 - 2018. While misery index is used to measure economic misery, the impact of international trade on economic misery is captured by means of its effect via economic misery, economic growth rate, balance of payment, total export, manufacture export and exchange rate. The results of the study reveal that balance of payments, total export, manufacture export, per capita GDP growth rate, exchange rate and lagged form of economic misery all have positive effect on economic misery. While the effects of total export, manufacture export, per capita GDP growth rate, and exchange rate on economic misery are significant, those of balance of payments and lagged form of economic misery are insignificant. While the study recommends that international trade be engaged strategically such that it results in favourable balance of payments, it also encourages the discarding of obsolete trade policies such as outright bans on importation of certain commodities. Bilateral trade agreements are recommended over multilateral trade agreements, since they are more mutually beneficial and binding on the parties involved

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