scholarly journals Applications of Agent-Based Modelling Techniques to Studies of Historical Epidemics: The 1918 Flu in Newfoundland and Labrador

2015 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 265-296
Author(s):  
Jessica Dimka ◽  
Carolyn Orbann ◽  
Lisa Sattenspiel
Keyword(s):  
Newfoundland And Labrador ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Social Institutions ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Historical Research ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Modelling Techniques ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Computer Simulation Models

The purpose of this article is twofold. First, the study addresses questions related to the spread and impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic in a small Newfoundland community, focusing on the role of large social institutions including an orphanage, school, and churches. Records indicate, for example, that residents of the orphanage in St. Anthony, our study community, experienced an increased risk of infection at different times during the epidemic than did members of the general community. Further, archival sources show that a variety of public health measures including closure of public gathering spaces were implemented throughout Newfoundland, but evidence suggests that the success of these measures varied. Second, this paper presents an argument for the important role computer simulation models can play in historical research, which is demonstrated using results from simulations focusing on social, demographic, and cultural factors, including behaviours and interactions of community residents. These examples highlight how modelling techniques can be used in historical research to address gaps in archival sources and help direct future research paths, and to test counterfactual scenarios to identify important factors influencing observed outcomes.

scholarly journals Modeling the spread of the 1918 Influenza pandemic in a Newfoundland community

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jessica Lea Dimka
Keyword(s):  
Newfoundland And Labrador ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Human Populations ◽  
Adult Women ◽  
Using Data ◽  
1918 Influenza ◽  
Disease Epidemics ◽  
Computer Simulation Models

Infectious disease epidemics have played and continue to play important roles in human populations. At different geographical levels, the spread of epidemics are affected by multiple demographic, social, cultural, political, economic, and other factors. Variation in these factors often produces different local or regional outcomes, so it is important for researchers to understand how individual behaviors and interactions can produce and explain larger patterns of disease spread. In small, traditional communities, important factors include settlement and household organization, daily behaviors, and relationships among residents. This research uses two computer simulation models to test the relative impact of these factors on disease spread in a small study community in Newfoundland and Labrador in the early 20th century, using data from the 1918 flu pandemic and other archival sources. In the agent-based model, which emphasizes movement to important social spaces, schoolchildren drive the size and timing of epidemics. In the social network model, which reflects important relationships among community residents, epidemics begun by adult women tend to be slower and smaller than epidemics begun by other types of individuals. These results demonstrate that, based on their roles in the community, members of different age and sex groups can strongly affect epidemic outcomes. Further, because simulation models are often used to develop or recommend public health policies or intervention strategies, the different results of the two models indicate the importance of selecting appropriate design features to ensure the best possible recommendations.

scholarly journals History of Cesarean Section Associated with Childhood Onset of T1DM in Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-6 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Phillips ◽  
N. Gill ◽  
K. Sikdar ◽  
S. Penney ◽  
L. A. Newhook
Keyword(s):  
Birth Weight ◽  
Gestational Age ◽  
Newfoundland And Labrador ◽  
Conditional Logistic Regression ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Large For Gestational Age ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Health Care Planning ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Chi Square Analysis

Objectives. Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) has one of the highest incidences of Type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) worldwide. Rates of T1DM are increasing and the search for environmental factors that may be contributing to this increase is continuing.Methods. This was a population-based case control design involving the linkage of data from a diabetes database with live birth registration data. 266 children aged 0–15 years with T1DM were compared to age- and gender-matched controls. Chi-square analysis and multivariate conditional logistic regression were carried out to assess maternal and infant factors (including maternal age, marital status, education, T1DM, hypertension, birth order, delivery method, gestational age, size-for-gestational-age, and birth weight).Results. Cases of T1DM were more likely to be large-for-gestational-age (P=0.024) and delivered by C-section (P=0.009) as compared to controls. C-section delivery was associated with increased risk of T1DM (HR 1.41,P=0.015) when birth weight and gestational age were included in the model, but not when size-for-gestational-age was included (HR 1.3,P=0.076).Conclusions. Birth by C-section was found to be a risk factor for the development of T1DM in a region with high rates of T1DM and birth by C-section. These findings may have an impact on health practice, health care planning, and future research.

A Silenced Population

Crisis ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (6) ◽  
pp. 433-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Gryglewicz ◽  
Melanie Bozzay ◽  
Brittany Arthur-Jordon ◽  
Gabriela D. Romero ◽  
Melissa Witmeier ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Depressive Symptomatology ◽  
The United States ◽  
Future Research ◽  
At Risk Youth ◽  
Peer Relationship ◽  
Student Records ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Method Student

Abstract. Background: Given challenges that exceed the normal developmental requirements of adolescence, deaf and hard-of-hearing (DHH) youth are believed to be at elevated risk for engaging in suicide-related behavior (SRB). Unfortunately, little is known about the mechanisms that put these youth potentially at risk. Aims: To determine whether peer relationship difficulties are related to increased risk of SRB in DHH youth. Method: Student records (n = 74) were retrieved from an accredited educational center for deaf and blind students in the United States. Results: Peer relationship difficulties were found to be significantly associated with engagement in SRB but not when accounting for depressive symptomatology. Limitations: The restricted sample limits generalizability. Conclusions regarding risk causation cannot be made due to the cross-sectional nature of the study. Conclusion: These results suggest the need for future research that examines the mechanisms of the relationship between peer relationship difficulties, depression, and suicide risk in DHH youth and potential preventive interventions to ameliorate the risks for these at-risk youth.

Laboratory study and computer model development related to gross solids' movement in combined sewers

1996 ◽  
Vol 33 (9) ◽  
pp. 39-47 ◽  
Author(s):  
John W. Davies ◽  
Yanli Xu ◽  
David Butler
Keyword(s):  
Computer Simulation ◽  
Pipe Flow ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Simulation Models ◽  
Laboratory Studies ◽  
Pilot Model ◽  
Sewer Systems ◽  
Flow Quality ◽  
Computer Simulation Models ◽  
Theoretical Considerations

Significant problems in sewer systems are caused by gross solids, and there is a strong case for their inclusion in computer simulation models of sewer flow quality. The paper describes a project which considered methods of modelling the movement of gross solids in combined sewers. Laboratory studies provided information on advection and deposition of typical gross solids in part-full pipe flow. Theoretical considerations identified aspects of models for gross solids that should differ from those for dissolved and fine suspended pollutants. The proposed methods for gross solids were incorporated in a pilot model, and their effects on simple simulations were considered.

The Energy Politics of India

2020 ◽  
pp. 532-561
Author(s):  
Lydia Powell
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Models ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Economic Power ◽  
Political Will ◽  
Political Factors ◽  
Academic Literature ◽  
Social Perspectives ◽  
Energy Politics ◽  
Social Structural ◽  
Poor Outcomes

While it is not surprising that political factors shape the Indian energy landscape, few systematic attempts have been made to address exactly what interests most heavily influence energy choices and the precise nature of their impacts. Available research suggests that scholars need to move beyond simplistic explanations, such as lack of political will or capacity constraints, and recognize a broader set of interacting social, structural, institutional, and political agency variables. The technocratic analyses and projections based on simulation models that dominate the academic literature neglect political and social perspectives as unscientific, esoteric, or theoretical. Thus this chapter argues that future research should focus on political and economic power relations at the national, regional, and domestic levels when tracking poor outcomes of energy choices and policies. In the future, an emphasis on theoretically informed analysis will deepen understanding of hard choices related to the equitable distribution of energy in India and also facilitate implementation of more progressive energy policies.

Accounting for natural disasters from a historical perspective: A literature review and research agenda

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-204
Author(s):  
Massimo Sargiacomo ◽  
Stefania Servalli ◽  
Serena Potito ◽  
Antonio D’Andreamatteo ◽  
Antonio Gitto
Keyword(s):  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Economic History ◽  
Research Agenda ◽  
Historical Research ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Research Topics ◽  
Open Research ◽  
Emerging Themes ◽  
Published Research ◽  
Selection Of

This study offers an analysis of published historical research on accounting for natural disasters. Drawing on the insights provided by an examination of 35 accounting/business/economic history and generalist journals, 11 articles have been selected and analysed. The analysis conducted on the scattered literature identified the emerging themes, disasters investigated, periods of time explored and main contributions of published research. The analysis is extended by the examination of some key conferences of interdisciplinary history associations, and of the eventual journals/issues where the papers presented were published. The investigation has also been complemented by a brief selection of books showing historical analyses of diverse disasters, typologies and periods of investigation. The stimuli provided by the study have helped to portray the main features of an open research agenda, highlighting possible future research topics and suggesting ancient and recent disasters’ loci to be investigated worldwide.

scholarly journals Defining a research agenda for youth sport specialisation in the USA: the AMSSM Youth Early Sport Specialization Summit

2021 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 135-143
Author(s):  
Stephanie A Kliethermes ◽  
Stephen W Marshall ◽  
Cynthia R LaBella ◽  
Andrew M Watson ◽  
Joel S Brenner ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Research Agenda ◽  
Sport Participation ◽  
Youth Sport ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Medical Society ◽  
Current Evidence ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Usa

Sport specialisation is becoming increasingly common among youth and adolescent athletes in the USA and many have raised concern about this trend. Although research on sport specialisation has grown significantly, numerous pressing questions remain pertaining to short-term and long-term effects of specialisation on the health and well-being of youth, including the increased risk of overuse injury and burnout. Many current elite athletes did not specialise at an early age. Methodological and study design limitations impact the quality of current literature, and researchers need to prioritise pressing research questions to promote safe and healthy youth sport participation. The American Medical Society for Sports Medicine hosted a Youth Early Sport Specialization Summit in April 2019 with the goal of synthesising and reviewing current scientific knowledge and developing a research agenda to guide future research in the field based on the identified gaps in knowledge. This statement provides a broad summary of the existing literature, gaps and limitations in current evidence and identifies key research priorities to help guide researchers conducting research on youth sport specialisation. Our goals are to help improve the quality and relevance of research on youth sport specialisation and to ultimately assure that opportunities for healthy and safe sport participation continue for all youth.

Ethnic Differences in the Smoking-Related Risk of Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniele Piovani ◽  
Claudia Pansieri ◽  
Soumya R R Kotha ◽  
Amanda C Piazza ◽  
Celia-Louise Comberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Inflammatory Bowel Disease ◽  
Latin American ◽  
Bowel Disease ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Inflammatory Bowel

Abstract Background and aims The association between smoking and inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) relies on old meta-analyses including exclusively non-Jewish White populations. Uncertainty persists regarding the role of smoking in other ethnicities. Methods We systematically searched Medline/PubMed, Embase and Scopus for studies examining tobacco smoking and the risk of developing IBD, i.e., Crohn’s disease (CD) or ulcerative colitis (UC). Two authors independently extracted study data and assessed each study’s risk-of-bias. We examined heterogeneity and small-study effect, and calculated summary estimates using random-effects models. Stratified analyses and meta-regression were employed to study the association between study-level characteristics and effect estimates. The strength of epidemiological evidence was assessed through prespecified criteria. Results We synthesized 57 studies examining the smoking-related risk of developing CD and UC. Non-Jewish White smokers were at increased risk of CD (29 studies; RR: 1.95, 95% CI: 1.69‒2.24; moderate evidence). No association was observed in Asian, Jewish and Latin-American populations (11 studies; RR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.83–1.13), with no evidence of heterogeneity across these ethnicities. Smokers were at reduced risk of UC (51 studies; RR: 0.55, 95% CI: 0.48–0.64; weak evidence) irrespectively of ethnicity; however, cohort studies, large studies and those recently published showed attenuated associations. Conclusions This meta-analysis did not identify any increased risk of CD in smokers in ethnicities other than non-Jewish Whites, and confirmed the protective effect of smoking on UC occurrence. Future research should characterize the genetic background of CD patients across different ethnicities to improve our understanding on the role of smoking in CD pathogenesis.

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