scholarly journals Estimating the short-term economic impact of COVID-19 pandemic: A regional perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol 94 (3) ◽  
pp. 441-457
Author(s):  
Zizi Goschin ◽  
Daniela-Luminita Constantin
Keyword(s):  
National Level ◽  
Vulnerability Index ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Economic Decline ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Travel Restrictions ◽  
Regional Specialisation

Given the economic crisis related to the current COVID-19 pandemic, decision makers need to better understand how to effectively allocate their limited resources to support the most severely affected regions. In this context our research seeks to identify the regions that are economically vulnerable, as well as those that are more resilient, using information on the industries negatively impacted by travel restrictions and social distancing measures. With this aim in view, we propose a vulnerability index calculated using regions’ location coefficients by activity and the forecasted decline of these activities at national level and test it for the Romanian economy. We argue that regional specialisation itself is not the source of the current problems, but the high dependence of many regional economies on economic activities directly affected by measures designed to mitigate the epidemic impact is the root cause of future economic decline.

Developing Regional Input-Output Models from the U.N. Format Adopted by the U.S. in the New 1972 Input-Output Model

1980 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 143-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis DiPietre ◽  
Rodney L. Walker ◽  
David R. Martella
Keyword(s):  
Regional Growth ◽  
National Level ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Specific Information ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Input Output ◽  
The People ◽  
Local Decision ◽  
Local Decision Makers

Since the mid-1940s, interest in the interrelationships of subnational economies has been growing. Part of this interest flows from a realization of the need to manage regional growth and mitigate the effects of economically unstable components of regional economies on the welfare of the people within the region. Aggregated macroeconomic models applied at the national level commonly provide insufficient information about their components, the regional economies. This lack has led to the development of state and regional macro models which can provide specific information relevant to state or local decision makers. Such information includes the availability of regional resources necessary to support and expand regional production and the impacts of changes in demand on the welfare of local inhabitants. These models are also useful in estimating the impacts of national policy on regional economies. The development of regional input-output models is an example of the trend toward fuller understanding of regional economies. State or regional input-output models can be constructed either by survey or by estimation from the national input-output model. Time and money constraints have increased the popularity of the latter approach among regional economists.

scholarly journals Analysis of 220 Years of Floodplain Population Dynamics in the US at Different Spatial Scales

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 141
Author(s):  
Firoza Akhter ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Luigia Brandimarte
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
National Level ◽  
State Level ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Protection Measures ◽  
Management Planning ◽  
The Us ◽  
Over Time

In this study, we explore the long-term trends of floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales in the contiguous United States (U.S.). We exploit different types of datasets from 1790–2010—i.e., decadal spatial distribution for the population density in the US, global floodplains dataset, large-scale data of flood occurrence and damage, and structural and nonstructural flood protection measures for the US. At the national level, we found that the population initially settled down within the floodplains and then spread across its territory over time. At the state level, we observed that flood damages and national protection measures might have contributed to a learning effect, which in turn, shaped the floodplain population dynamics over time. Finally, at the county level, other socio-economic factors such as local flood insurances, economic activities, and socio-political context may predominantly influence the dynamics. Our study shows that different influencing factors affect floodplain population dynamics at different spatial scales. These facts are crucial for a reliable development and implementation of flood risk management planning.

scholarly journals Chameleonic knowledge: a study of ex ante analysis in large infrastructure policy processes

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Dorren ◽  
Wouter Van Dooren
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Policy Outcomes ◽  
Knowledge Use ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Substantive Content ◽  
Infrastructure Policy ◽  
Decision Outcomes ◽  
Ex Ante

AbstractUsing ex ante analysis to predict policy outcomes is common practice in the world of infrastructure planning. However, accounts of its uses and merits vary widely. Advisory agencies and government think tanks advocate this practice to prevent cost overruns, short-term decision-making and suboptimal choices. Academic studies on knowledge use, on the other hand, are critical of how knowledge can be used in decision making. Research has found that analyses often have no impact at all on decision outcomes or are mainly conducted to provide decision makers with the confidence to decide rather than with objective facts. In this paper, we use an ethnographic research design to understand how it is possible that the use of ex ante analysis can be depicted in such contradictory ways. We suggest that the substantive content of ex ante analysis plays a limited role in understanding its depictions and uses. Instead, it is the process of conducting an ex ante analysis itself that unfolds in such a manner that the analysis can be interpreted and used in many different and seemingly contradictory ways. In policy processes, ex ante analysis is like a chameleon, figuratively changing its appearance based on its environment.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and Its Impact on the Indian Economy

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292198912
Author(s):  
Vikas Barbate ◽  
Rajesh N. Gade ◽  
Shirish S. Raibagkar
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Windfall Gain ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Tree Approach ◽  
Silver Lining

Pessimism looms large all over. COVID-19 has been projected as worse than the Great Depression of 1930. Everyday analyst and agency reports are diving into new bottoms of a fall-down in economic activities. Indian economy, however, has a slightly different story to tell at this hour of crisis. The silver lining for the Indian economy comes from a steep fall in the crude oil prices from around $70 per barrel to a record 18 years low of $22 per barrel. This windfall gain can, to some extent, offset the direct losses due to COVID-19. At the same time, dreams like a $5 trillion economy no longer look even a remote possibility. This article takes stock of the likely impact of COVID-19 on the Indian economy in the short term and the long term. A decision-tree approach has been adopted for doing the projections.

scholarly journals Development of the reproduction number from coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data in Germany and implications for political measures

BMC Medicine ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sahamoddin Khailaie ◽  
Tanmay Mitra ◽  
Arnab Bandyopadhyay ◽  
Marta Schips ◽  
Pietro Mascheroni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
National Level ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Federal State ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Time Varying ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Robert Koch Institute ◽  
Federal States

Abstract Background SARS-CoV-2 has induced a worldwide pandemic and subsequent non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to control the spread of the virus. As in many countries, the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in Germany has led to a consecutive roll-out of different NPIs. As these NPIs have (largely unknown) adverse effects, targeting them precisely and monitoring their effectiveness are essential. We developed a compartmental infection dynamics model with specific features of SARS-CoV-2 that allows daily estimation of a time-varying reproduction number and published this information openly since the beginning of April 2020. Here, we present the transmission dynamics in Germany over time to understand the effect of NPIs and allow adaptive forecasts of the epidemic progression. Methods We used a data-driven estimation of the evolution of the reproduction number for viral spreading in Germany as well as in all its federal states using our model. Using parameter estimates from literature and, alternatively, with parameters derived from a fit to the initial phase of COVID-19 spread in different regions of Italy, the model was optimized to fit data from the Robert Koch Institute. Results The time-varying reproduction number (Rt) in Germany decreased to <1 in early April 2020, 2–3 weeks after the implementation of NPIs. Partial release of NPIs both nationally and on federal state level correlated with moderate increases in Rt until August 2020. Implications of state-specific Rt on other states and on national level are characterized. Retrospective evaluation of the model shows excellent agreement with the data and usage of inpatient facilities well within the healthcare limit. While short-term predictions may work for a few weeks, long-term projections are complicated by unpredictable structural changes. Conclusions The estimated fraction of immunized population by August 2020 warns of a renewed outbreak upon release of measures. A low detection rate prolongs the delay reaching a low case incidence number upon release, showing the importance of an effective testing-quarantine strategy. We show that real-time monitoring of transmission dynamics is important to evaluate the extent of the outbreak, short-term projections for the burden on the healthcare system, and their response to policy changes.

Representing Social Construction in Consumer Activities: Single-Period and Multi-Period Activity Production

1994 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 139-156
Author(s):  
Steven D. Silver
Keyword(s):  
Social Construction ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Maximization Problem ◽  
Activity Levels ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Subsequent Period ◽  
Single Period ◽  
The Social ◽  
Endogenous Variables

Consumers are seen as limited decision makers who set short-term activity levels from their budgets, stocks of experience, and values following a preference-maximizing heuristic. Disturbances to activity levels in their evolution by exogeneties of social and economic environments, and the feedback of activity levels which agents have no systematic ability to anticipate, reset stock and value levels through the interactive relationships among endogenous variables. Agents then solve the maximization problem for a subsequent period using stock and value levels as modified by the evolutionary process. The dependence of a single-period decision on the stock and value constructs is examined and forms for the dynamic evolution of stock and value constructs that represent the feedback of activity levels to stock and value levels are also introduced. Implications of these forms for the social construction of activities are discussed.

scholarly journals Company Changing Status and Its Linking to Competitiveness

2015 ◽  
Vol 53 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
Dragana Radenković-Jocić ◽  
Ivan Barun
Keyword(s):  
Mergers And Acquisitions ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Economic Interests ◽  
Eu Legislation ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Right ◽  
A Company ◽  
The Eu

Abstract The authors present the issues and challenges related to the changes in status of a company and its impact on competitiveness. Status changes of companies, mostly mergers and acquisitions of companies, are one of the ways in which capital owners and management direct economic activities with the aim of maximizing profits. In order to make the right and justified decision, in terms of achieving the economic interests of the company, it is essential to know the laws and regulations in this area. This paper should provide answers on various questions which will be presented to decision makers in every company, considering status changes. Bearing in mind that the question of status changes often associated with an international element, the authors will pay special attention on the EU legislation and current legal framework in the Republic of Serbia.

94 Short-term use of therapeutic opioids for children and future opioid use disorders: A systematic review and qualitative study of decision-maker information needs

2021 ◽  
Vol 26 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. e68-e68
Author(s):  
Malema Ahrari ◽  
Samina Ali ◽  
Michele Dyson ◽  
Lisa Hartling
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Qualitative Study ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
Opioid Use ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Short Term Exposure ◽  
Evidence Summary

Abstract Primary Subject area Emergency Medicine - Paediatric Background Healthcare visits, hospitalizations, and deaths due to opioid-related harms continue to rise for children, despite an overall decline in opioid prescriptions. Decision-makers (including patients and families, clinicians, and policy-makers) require high quality syntheses to inform decisions regarding opioid use. Previous research has found that how systematic review (SR) results are presented may influence uptake by decision-makers. Evidence summaries are appealing to decision-makers as they provide key messages in a succinct manner. Objectives 1) To conduct an SR examining the association between short-term therapeutic exposure to opioids in children and development of opioid use disorder, and 2) To gain perspectives from policy decision-makers on the usability and presentation of results through the form of an evidence summary. Design/Methods We conducted an SR following methods recommended by Cochrane. A medical librarian conducted a comprehensive search and two authors were involved in study selection, data extraction and quality assessment. Studies were eligible if they reported primary research in English or French, and study participants had therapeutic exposure to opioids before age 18 years. Results were described narratively. Decision makers were recruited through purposive and snowball sampling methods, and they participated in interviews to discuss an evidence summary based on the SR. Interviews were transcribed and data were analyzed using content analysis. Ethics approval was obtained for the qualitative study. Results Nineteen American studies involving 47,191,990 participants were included. One study demonstrated that short-term therapeutic exposure may be associated with opioid abuse. Four others showed an association without specifying duration of exposure. Fourteen studies provided information on prevalence or incidence of opioid misuse following therapeutic exposure, median 27.8% [interquartile range 21.4% – 30.7%]; notably, 12 of them did not specify duration of therapeutic exposure. Identified risk factors were contradictory and remain unclear. Decision makers had mixed preferences for the presentation of evidence, depending on their degree of involvement in research versus practice. A majority preferred having methods and key characteristics of studies included in the first page of the evidence summary. They noted that the summary should not be text-heavy and details should be appended. Conclusion A number of studies suggest there is an association between lifetime therapeutic opioid use (unknown duration) and future nonmedical opioid use; however, there is limited evidence to determine whether short-term exposure is specifically associated with these outcomes. Policy and decision-makers prefer a succinct evidence summary for this SR, with study-specific details provided as an appendix. PROSPERO Registration: 122681.

scholarly journals Religious Engagement and the Migration Issue: Towards Reconciling Political and Moral Duty

Religions ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 236
Author(s):  
Joanna Kulska
Keyword(s):  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Religious Communities ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Nation States ◽  
Religious Engagement ◽  
The Face ◽  
Religious Actors

The increasingly acknowledged post-secular perspective has resulted in the emergence of some new approaches theorizing this phenomenon. One such approach has been the concept of religious engagement, which calls for the redefinition of the perception of religious non-state actors towards including them as important partners in the process of identifying and realizing political goals. According to this view, due to the multidimensional role played by religious communities and non-state religious actors, they need to be recognized as pivotal in creating a new form of knowledge generated through encounter and dialogue of the political decision-makers with these subjects. Among numerous others, the challenge of migration calls for enhanced debate referring to both political and ethical issues. When such a perspective is applied, the question is raised of the duties and limits of nation-states using more or less harsh political measures towards refugees and migrants based on the concept of security, but also short-term political goals. In the face of a state’s lack of will or capacity to deal with the problem of migration, the question of religion serving not only as the service-provider but also as the “trend-setter” with regard to fundamental ethical questions needs to be considered.

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