scholarly journals Un modelo de perfilación para agresores sexuales desconocidos que agreden en las entradas de los edificios

Author(s):  
Heriberto Janosch González ◽  
Francisco Pérez Fernández ◽  
Juan Enrique Soto Castro

En el presente estudio pretendimos analizar las características de los autores de agresiones sexuales cuyo modus operandi es el de atacar a la víctima en portales o entradas de garaje de edificios. Nuestro estudio estuvo orientado a determinar si es posible predecir tales características a partir de los datos de la escena del crimen, analizando casos resueltos. Partiendo del contenido de sentencias judiciales condenatorias dictadas en España, y aplicando pruebas estadísticas de chi-cuadrado, odds-ratio, y regresión logística binaria, hemos obtenido resultados alentadores, en el sentido de que algunas de las variables de la escena del crimen permiten predecir algunas características de los autores. Dado que las variables de la escena del crimen utilizadas aquí son conocidas por el equipo policial al inicio de la investigación, la predicción de características del agresor sexual podría ser de utilidad a la hora de priorizar sospechosos.This paper aims at analysing the features of the perpetrators of sexual assaults whose modus operandi consists of assaulting the victim in doorways or entrances of garage and buildings. Its objective was to determine whether it is possible to predict these features moving from the information regarding the crime scene, by means of analysing solved cases. Moving from the content of convicting judgments issued in Spain, and by applying statistical tests of chi-square, odds-ratio, and binary logistic regression, we have obtained encouraging results, in that some variables in the crime scene allow to predict some features of these offenders. Since the variables of the crime scene that have been used here are known to the police team at the beginning of the investigation, prediction of the sexual offender’s features could be useful to prioritize suspects.

2020 ◽  
Vol 29 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Eva Dwiyanti Lestari ◽  
Siti Ahlan Sarmadani ◽  
Safira Hani Pratiwi ◽  
Novera Nur Fikri ◽  
Ahmad Solihin Hafi ◽  
...  

Abstract Smoking is an unhealthy behavior that causes high morbidity and mortality. In Indonesia the prevalence of smokers is still high, and the number of smokers among university students tends to increase. Smoking status among male students of Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University (UIN) Jakarta and factors related to  smoking status behavior are not yet clearly known. This study was conducted to determine the relationship of stress levels, the influence of family and peers with smoking status on  male students of UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta in 2019. This study used a cross sectional study design to determine  the smoking status of male students of UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta. A purposive sampling technique was used to select 424 male university students. Data analysis was performed using the chi square test and binary logistic regression. The Results is the prevalence of smokers among male students of UIN Jakarta was 42.2%. The results of multivariate analysis showed that family and peers were significantly related to smoking status of students (p-value <0.05), while stress levels were not related. Odds ratio (OR) associated for family influence is 1.9 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.24-2.93) and OR (95% CI) for with peer influence  is  13.6 (6.20-29.81). The Conclusion is the prevalence of smokers is still quite high among male students at UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta. The influence factor of family and peers is related to smoking status of UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta student.   Abstrak Merokok merupakan perilaku tidak sehat yang menyebabkan tingginya angka kesakitan dan kematian. Di Indonesia prevalensi perokok masih tinggi dan jumlah perokok di kalangan mahasiswa cenderung mengalami peningkatan. Status merokok mahasiswa Universitas Islam Negeri (UIN) Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta dan faktor yang berhubungan dengan status merokok belum diketahui dengan jelas. Penelitian ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui hubungan tingkat stres, pengaruh keluarga, dan teman sebaya dengan status merokok pada mahasiswa UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta Tahun 2019. Penelitian ini menggunakan desain studi cross sectional untuk mengetahui status merokok mahasiswa laki-laki UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta. Teknik purposive sampling dilakukan untuk memilih 424 responden. Analisis data dilakukan dengan menggunakan uji chi square dan binary logistic regression. Hasil menunjukan prevalensi perokok pada mahasiswa laki-laki di UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta sebesar 42,2%. Hasil analisis multivariat menunjukkan bahwa keluarga dan teman sebaya berhubungan bermakna dengan status merokok mahasiswa (p-value <0,05), sedangkan level stres tidak berhubungan. Odds ratio (OR) untuk pengaruh keluarga sebesar 1,9 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1,24-2,93) dan OR (95% CI) untuk pengaruh teman sebaya sebesar 13,6 (6.20-29.81). Kesimpulannya adalah prevalensi perokok masih cukup tinggi pada mahasiswa laki-laki di UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta. Faktor pengaruh keluarga dan teman sebaya berhubungan dengan status merokok mahasiswa UIN Syarif Hidayatullah Jakarta.  


2017 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-155
Author(s):  
Dina Fida ◽  
Ismayani Ismayani ◽  
Fajri Jakfar

Abstrak.Kopi adalah salah satu jenis tanaman perkebunan yang sudah lama dibudidayakan dan memiliki nilai ekonomi yang dapat menghasilkan keuntungan. Kopi tubruk merupakan kopi tradisional yang umumnya lebih keras karena bubuk kopi murni yang langsung diseduh dengan air  mendidih, teksturnya lebih kasar, lebih banyak mengandung ampas, aroma kopi yang lebih menyengat, serta tingkat kekentalan yang bisa disesuaikan dengan lidah penikmatnya. Loyalitas konsumen pada umumnya merupakan suatu sikap konsumen yang loyal terhadap pilihan dan penggunaan produk dalam waktu yang lama dan untuk masa yang akan datang, Sedangkan kepuasan konsumen ialah perasaan senang atau kecewa seseorang yang berasal dari perbandingan antara kesannya terhadap kinerja (hasil) sesuatu produk dengan harapannya. Pada penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi loyalitas konsumen terhadap minuman kopi tubruk di Meulaboh, Mengetahui hubungan antara tingkat kepuasan konsumen dengan loyalitas konsumen terhadap konsumsi kopi tubruk di Meulaboh.Adapun metode yang digunakan adalah Uji Validitas dan Reliabilitas,Regresi Logistik Biner dan Chi Square.Hasil Regresi Biner Logistik menunjukkan bahwa citarasa, harga, kualitas pelayanan dan lokasi merupakan faktor yang mempengaruhi loyalitas konsumen terhadap minuman kopi tubruk.Hasil Uji Chi-Square menunjukkan bahwa adanya hubungan yang signifikan antara kepuasan konsumen dengan loyalitas konsumen terhadap minuman kopi tubruk di Meulaboh.Consumer Loyality To The Consumption Of Coffee Brewed In MeulabohAbstract.Coffee is one of the plantation species has long been cultivated and have a mutually beneficial economic value.The brewed coffee is a traditional coffee are generally harder for pure coffee powder that instantly brewed with boiling water, rough texture, contains more dregs, pungent coffee aroma, as well as the level of consistency that can be adapted to the tongue of the audience.Consumer loyalty is generally a loyal consumer attitudes towards choice and use of the product for a long time and for the future.While customer satisfaction is feeling happy or disappointed someone who comes from a comparison between her impression of the performance (yield) of a product with expectations.In this study aims to determine the factors that influence consumer loyalty to the coffee beverage brewed in Meulaboh.Determine the relationship between the level of customer satisfaction and customer loyalty towards the consumption of instant coffee in Meulaboh.The methods used are validity and reliability, Binary Logistic Regression and Chi Square.Binary logistic regression results show that the simultaneous testing of the factors that influence loyalty is taste, price, service quality, and location. While testing only partially furnished variables that influence loyalty.Chi-Square test results indicate that there is a significant relationship between customer satisfaction and customer loyalty so that customer satisfaction is influenced flavors that suit the tastes of consumers. 


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yiyi Ding ◽  
Shuo Wang ◽  
Rui Guo ◽  
Aizhen Zhang ◽  
Yufang Zhu

Abstract BACKGROUND: Evidence regarding the relationship between unbound bilirubin levels and acute bilirubin encephalopathy was limited. Therefore, this study set out to investigate whether the unbound bilirubin level was independently related to acute bilirubin encephalopathy in children who underwent exchange transfusion after adjusting for other covariates. METHODS: A total of 46 neonates who underwent exchange transfusion were involved in The First People's Hospital Of Changde City in China from 2016-1-1 to 2018-12-31. The target independent variable and the dependent variable were unbound bilirubin levels measured at baseline and acute bilirubin encephalopathy respectively. Covariates involved in this study included sex, age, birth weight, blood glucose, red blood cell, hemolysis, receive phototherapy before exchange transfusion. RESULTS: The average gestational age of 46 selected participants was 38.6 ± 1.3 weeks old, the average age was 146.5 ± 86.9 hours old, 52.17% of them were male. Result of fully-adjusted binary logistic regression showed unbound bilirubin levels were positively associated with risk of acute bilirubin encephalopathy after adjusting confounders (Odds ratio = 1.41, 95% confidence intervals 1.05-1.91, P value <0.05). CONCLUSION: Unbound bilirubin levels are associated with neonatal acute bilirubin encephalopathy. The mechanism of unbound bilirubin levels leading to neonatal acute bilirubin encephalopathy needs to be further explored.


2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 32-37
Author(s):  
Dilshad Parvin ◽  
Md Nasir Uddin ◽  
Md Shahjahn Kabir ◽  
Afsana Ahmed ◽  
SM Rahat Hossain ◽  
...  

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS), a life-threatening manifestation of coronary artery disease, ranges from unstable angina (UA) to acute myocardial infarction (AMI). To reduce the morbidity and mortality resulting from acute coronary syndrome, we should have to find out some predictor or prognostic indicator. A prognostic indicator should be available at the time of initial patient’s evaluation, in order to maximize the potential benefits of early risk assessment. This study designed to evaluate plasma BNP as a prognostic tool in patients with acute coronary syndrome. A prognostic cohort study was carried out with 90 (ninety) acute coronary syndrome patients on the basis of their clinical and laboratory criteria with age range of 30 to 90 years in the department of biochemistry, BSMMU, in collaboration with department of cardiology, NICVD, BSMMU and BIRDEM. Plasma BNP concentrations were measured on enrollment and then grouping of the study subjects were done on the basis of their empirical cut off value of plasma BNP concentration. All the patients were free from heart failure, renal disease, thyroid disease and hepatic disorder. Main outcomes were mortality, morbidity and survival after hospital discharge with or without any disability. All the subjects were categorized into two and to see the significance between two groups in relation to age and sex Unpaired –t test and Chi square test were done. Finally, Binary logistic regression was done. Among 90 acute coronary syndromes patients, there were 74(82.2%) male and 16(17.8%) female with mean age of the study population 51.8 years and the age range of 30 t0 90 years. Among enrolled patients, 24 (26.7%) were NSTEMI and 66 (73.3%) were STEMI that includes 29 (32.2%) anterior MI, 21 (23.3%) inferior MI, 16 (17.8%) other varieties of MI. All the study subjects were grouped into two on the basis of empirical cut off value of plasma BNP 640pg/ml on enrollment. Group I with plasma BNP level less than 640pg/ml includes 57 (63.3%) subjects and group II with plasma BNP more than 640pg/ml includes 33 (36.7%) subjects. Among group I (n=57) good recovery, morbidity and mortality found to be in 41(71.9%), 15(26.3%) and 1(1.8%) patients and those in group II (n=33) found in 6(18.2%), 19(57.6%) and 8(24.2%) patients respectively. Keeping the group I in reference category binary logistic regression analysis done, showing odds ratio 11.5 with p- value 0.000. The odds ratio 11.5 indicates that there is 11.5 times higher chance of getting bad outcome in ACS patients having higher plasma BNP concentrations. Bangladesh Med J. 2017 May; 46 (2): 32-37


2017 ◽  
Vol 156 (3) ◽  
pp. 484-488 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdem Eren ◽  
Toygar Kalkan ◽  
Seçil Arslanoğlu ◽  
Mustafa Özmen ◽  
Kazım Önal ◽  
...  

Objective To determine the predictive value of nasal endoscopic findings and symptoms in the diagnosis of granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA). Study Design A cross-sectional study. Setting A tertiary university hospital. Subjects and Methods A total of 116 adults were enrolled in the study: 19 patients with GPA, 29 patients with other rheumatic diseases, and 68 healthy volunteers. All patients were examined with a flexible endoscope, and nasal endoscopic images were recorded and evaluated blindly. The medical history of each patient was taken by a physician blinded to the patient’s diagnosis. Results Univariate analysis indicated a statistically significant difference in rhinorrhea ( P = .002), postnasal drip ( P = .015), epistaxis ( P < .001), and saddle nose ( P = .017). However, binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that only history of epistaxis ( P = .012; odds ratio, 5.6) was statistically significant in predicting GPA. Univariate analysis showed a statistically significant difference in nasal secretion ( P = .028), nasal septal perforation ( P < .017), nasal crusting ( P < .001), nasal adhesion ( P < .001), nasal granuloma ( P = .017), and hemorrhagic fragile nasal mucosa ( P < .001). A binary logistic regression analysis demonstrated that only hemorrhagic fragile nasal mucosa ( P < .001; odds ratio, 52.9) was a statistically significant predictor of GPA. Conclusions Given the results of this study, we believe that hemorrhagic fragile nasal mucosa and history of recurrent epistaxis may put patients at risk for GPA and should be investigated accordingly.


Author(s):  
Jorge Nelson da Silva Júnior ◽  
Rafael Lima Kons ◽  
Rodolfo André Dellagrana ◽  
Daniele Detanico

This study aimed to identify types and sites of body injury, location of injury occurrence, and the mechanism and severity of injuries in novice and advanced Brazilian jiu-jitsu (BJJ) athletes. One hundred and eight BJJ athletes took part in this study separated in two groups: advanced (n = 53) and novice (n = 55). Athletes answered a questionnaire concerning regions of injury, locality of occurrence, injury severity and mechanism. Chi square test and a logistic regression analysis were used with the level of significance set at p < 0.05. The main results showed that shoulders and knees were the most injury location reported by novice and advanced athletes. Novice athletes demonstrated higher prevalence of injuries during training sessions (54.5%), whereas advanced athletes reported more injuries during competitions (66.1%). Significant associations between novice and advanced athletes were observed for major joints (p < 0.05). The odds ratio of having injury was 70-87% less for novice versus advanced athletes for the major joints cited. We concluded that BJJ athletes demonstrate high prevalence of injury mainly at knee and shoulder. While risk of injury appeared less in novice, the advanced demonstrated higher number of injuries during competitions as a consequence of injured joint keys. By contrast, novice athletes reported higher number of injuries associated with training sessions as a consequence of overuse.


PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0244257
Author(s):  
John W. Francis ◽  
Alun J. Owen ◽  
Derek M. Peters

The purposes of this study were to (i) develop a field-goal shooting performance analysis template and (ii) explore the impact of each identified variable upon the likely outcome of a field-goal attempt using binary logistic regression modelling in elite men’s wheelchair basketball. First, a field-goal shooting performance analysis template was developed that included 71 Action Variables (AV) grouped within 22 Categorical Predictor Variables (CPV) representing offensive, defensive and game context variables. Second, footage of all 5,105 field-goal attempts from 12 teams during the men’s 2016 Rio De Janeiro Paralympic Games wheelchair basketball competition were analysed using the template. Pearson’s chi-square analyses found that 18 of the CPV were significantly associated with field-goal attempt outcome (p < 0.05), with seven of them reaching moderate association (Cramer’s V: 0.1–0.3). Third, using 70% of the dataset (3,574 field-goal attempts), binary logistic regression analyses identified that five offensive variables (classification category of the player, the action leading up to the field-goal attempt, the time left on the clock, the location of the shot, and the movement of the player), two defensive variables (the pressure being exerted by the defence, and the number of defenders within a 1-meter radius) and 1 context variable (the finishing position of the team in the competition) affected the probability of a successful field-goal attempt. The quality of the developed model was determined acceptable (greater than 65%), producing an area under the curve value of 68.5% when the model was run against the remaining 30% of the dataset (1,531 field-goal attempts). The development of the model from such a large sample of objective data is unique. As such it offers robust empirical evidence to enable coaches, performance analysts and players to move beyond anecdote, in order to appreciate the potential effect of various and varying offensive, defensive and contextual variables on field-goal success.


Author(s):  
Shamima Akter ◽  
Wasim Akram

<p>The purpose of the study is to see how poverty influences child labor. To carry out the study, moderate poor people have been considered as respondents. Kalibazar and Langalband regions of Narayanganj district have been selected. Random sampling technique and Focused Group Discussion with children have been taken to conduct the study. Data has been collected from 50 Household Heads and 50 Children (male and female). For economic analysis, the Binary Logistic Regression model has been undertaken to see the relationship between poverty and child labor.  The analysis shows that the odds ratio indicates that drop-out children from school are 11.34 times more likely to go for taking the occupation of child labor due to poverty (major cause) than those children who have been dropped out due to other reasons (reference category). The study also shows that the families having no loan are 0.444 times less likely to go for child labor due to major causes (poverty) than that of the families having a loan. Moreover, the odds ratio corresponding to the children who use their income to help their families is 3.26. It means that the children who use their income for family purposes go 3.26 times more likely to take the occupation of child labor due to a major cause (poverty) than those children who do not use their income for family purposes. At the same time, the children who use their income for treatment purposes go 1.45 times more likely to take the occupation of child labor due to poverty (a major cause) than those children who do not use their income for treatment purposes.</p>


2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Bakari L Leguma ◽  
Rajabu Rocky Akarro ◽  
Amina Suleiman Msengwa ◽  
Francis Joseph Sichona

Background: In Tanzania, like in many other poor African countries, cervical cancer is a major problem facing women especially for those aged 30 years and above. This study aimed at constructing a statistical model to enable the prediction of the outcome of treatment for cervical cancer patients in Tanzania. Methods: Data were collected retrospectively from patient’s files with histological proven cervical cancer who were treated at Ocean Road Cancer Institute (ORCI) from year 2009 and followed up to year 2011. The factors considered are screening status, HIV status, disease stage, age, treatment type and the intent of the treatment. The study employed the Chi-square (χ2) test and the logistic regression model for its analysis. Results:  The Chi-square (χ2) test result showed that there was a significant relationship between outcome of treatment and the patient screening status, HIV status, disease stage and intent of treatment at 5% level of significance. On the other hand, the logistic regression results found patient disease stage and intent of the treatment to be statistically significant at 95 percent. Logistic regression results also showed that patients who attended ORCI when their disease at a late stage had an odds ratio of 0.128 less likely to have favorable outcomes compared to those patients who attended ORCI when their disease stage was at early stages. The odds ratio for cervical cancer patients who received both treatment, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy was 2.643 more likely to have favorable outcomes Conclusion:  More emphasis and campaigns should be made in order to encourage women all over the country to attend cancer centers for screening and treatment at early stages or even before any symptoms for cervical cancer and other types of cancers.


2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 61
Author(s):  
Diah Irawati Dwi Arini ◽  
Satyawan Pudyatmoko ◽  
Erny Poedjirahajoe

The Red and blue lory is an endemic parrot species from Talaud Islands, North Sulawesi. The use of existing resources is suspected that occurs of selection including the roosting trees. The research aims to identifying the characteristics of Red and Blue Lory roost tree and determining variables in its selection. We measured 14 variables to identify the characteristics and selection of roost tree. Mann-Whitney test, T-test, Chi-sqare test and Binary Logistic Regression were employed to analyze data. We detected 11 roost trees in study field, there are Gehe (Pometia coriacea Radkl) nine individual, Binsar (Ficus variegata) and Lawean (Sterculia sp) one individual. The Chi-square test identified five variables which related to roost tree selection, i.e; branch-free bole length, canopy diameter, canopy density and the number of trees around the roost tree on diameter 20 - 40 cm and > 41 cm. The Logistic regression analysis detected three variables that gave the most influence on roost tree selection, but branch-free bole length gave the most influence on roost tree selection.


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