scholarly journals Cointegration Approach to the Estimation of the Long-Run Relations between Exchange Rates and Trade Balances in Visegrad Countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 37-57
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Behavior Patterns ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Exchange Rate Uncertainty ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Visegrád Countries

The paper deals with the relationship between exchange rates and foreign trade. The aim of this paper is to reveal the long-term effects of the level of exchange rates on the trade balances of the Visegrad Countries. As the different product categories are characterized by different price elasticity, exchange rate uncertainty sensitivity and countries are differentiated by consumer and producer behavior patterns, this paper uses territorial and commodity structuring of foreign trade data. An empirical analysis is performed for the period 1999

scholarly journals Product-level analysis of relationship between Czech koruna and Czech foreign trade

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jana Šimáková
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Bilateral Trade ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Commodity Trade ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Product Categories ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Level Analysis

Paper is aimed to evaluate effects of exchange rates on the Czech bilateral trade divided into product categories. Paper assumes that different traded product categories are characterized by different price elasticity and every market consists of different consumer and producer behavior patterns, so the study applies territorial and commodity approach to foreign trade disaggregation. Long term effects are assessed by Johansen cointegration and short term effects by vector error correction model. Analysis for the period 1999 -2014 on the SITC 1 and 2 digit data shows that bilateral and majority of commodity trade balances are cointegrated with bilateral exchange rate.

Long run apartment price dynamics in Swedish and German cities

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sviatlana Engerstam
Keyword(s):  
Banking Sector ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Price Dynamics ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Price Elasticities ◽  
Long Run ◽  
German Cities

PurposeThis study examines the long term effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on apartment price dynamics in major metropolitan areas in Sweden and Germany.Design/methodology/approachThe main approach is panel cointegration analysis that allows to overcome certain data restrictions such as spatial heterogeneity, cross-sectional dependence, and non-stationary, but cointegrated data. The Swedish dataset includes three cities over a period of 23 years, while the German dataset includes seven cities for 29 years. Analysis of apartment price dynamics include population, disposable income, mortgage interest rate, and apartment stock as underlying macroeconomic variables in the model.FindingsThe empirical results indicate that apartment prices react more strongly on changes in fundamental factors in major Swedish cities than in German ones despite quite similar development of these macroeconomic variables in the long run in both countries. On one hand, overreactions in apartment price dynamics might be considered as the evidence of the price bubble building in Sweden. On the other hand, these two countries differ in institutional arrangements of the housing markets, and these differences might contribute to the size of apartment price elasticities from changes in fundamentals. These arrangements include various banking sector policies, such as mortgage financing and valuation approaches, as well as different government regulations of the housing market as, for example, rent control.Originality/valueIn distinction to the previous studies carried out on Swedish and German data for single-family houses, this study focuses on the apartment segment of the market and examines apartment price elasticities from a long term perspective. In addition, the results from this study highlight the differences between the two countries at the city level in an integrated long run equilibrium framework.

MERGE OF THE TECHNİCAL ANALYSİS TYPES GİVES THE BEST RESULTS İN CRYPTOCURRENCY MARKET

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (14) ◽  
pp. 89-97
Author(s):  
MUSTAFA ÖZYEŞİL ◽  
MOHAMMAD AL-TARIFI
Keyword(s):  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Investment Strategy ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Market Capitalization ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Peer Network ◽  
Tangible Asset ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Peer To Peer Network

Cryptocurrencies are a modern kind of financial instrument (Hudson & Urquhart, 2019), the first cryptocurrency is Bitcoin , proposed by who called Satoushi Nakamato (2008), as The open source was created on the proof-of-concept principle that transactions can be securely treated on a decentralized peer to peer network without the need for a central clearinghouse, which appeared 2009 ( Heid, 2013). The success of the bitcoin blazes a trail to what called ‘Altcoin” this expression means all the cryptocurrencies that set in motion after the victory of the bitcoin, these coins sell themselves as the best alternatives for the bitcoin (FRANKENFIELD, 2020) . There are many types for the altcoin. The third type of the cryptocurrency is called Tokens Unlike Bitcoin and Altcoins, tokens are not able to activate independently and are dependent on the grid of another cryptocurrency. That means they do not have their own core DLT or blockchain, but instead, are built on top of an existing cryptocurrency’s blockchain (Types of cryptocurrencies: explaining the major types of cryptos, 2019). The worth of bitcoin doesn’t depend on any tangible asset or economies of the countries while it is based upon the security of an algorithm which traces all transactions (Hudson & Urquhart, 2019). The studies determine the number of the bitcoin price development in the long -run (Ciaian, Rajcaniova, & Kancs, 2018): • Market forces of the Bitcoin supply and demand • The bitcoin’s attractiveness for the investors • The influence of global macro-financial developments If you're forming an investment strategy designed to help you trail long-term financial intentions, understanding the relationship between company size, return potential, and risk is vital. (Market cap—or market capitalization—refers to the total value of all a company's shares of stock, 2017) .Hence , Manifested importance a cryptocurrency’s market capitalization as the total values of all coins currently in circulation. the cryptocurrency’s market cap contains what’s called Bitcoin Dominance that is the ratio between the market cap of bitcoin to other coins of the cryptocurrency markets (jacobcanfield, 2019) . Cryptocurrency trade is attractive type of investment. this market treated the same of the foreign exchange and stock market ( Radityo, Munajat, & Budi, 2017). The investors using the same basic in investment (buy low, sell high) but they need to calculating the risks

scholarly journals Emotional Tagging and Belief Formation: The Long-Lasting Effects of Experiencing Communism

2019 ◽  
Vol 109 ◽  
pp. 567-571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Laudenbach ◽  
Ulrike Malmendier ◽  
Alexandra Niessen-Ruenzi
Keyword(s):  
Formation Process ◽  
Crucial Role ◽  
Underlying Mechanism ◽  
Memory Formation ◽  
Belief Formation ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Long Run

Growing evidence in macrofinance suggests long-lasting effects of personally experienced outcomes on beliefs. To understand the underlying mechanism we turn to the neurological foundations of memory formation. We propose that emotional tagging plays a crucial role in assigning weights in the belief formation process. We use exposure to communism as well as variation in its emotional tagging to predict long-run beliefs. We show that living under communism has long-term effects on beliefs about its benefits. In addition, positive and negative emotional tags strongly affect the (pro- or anti-communist) direction of beliefs, providing anchors to memory that seem hard to reverse.

scholarly journals Scorpion Envenomation of Lactating Rats Decreases the Seizure Threshold in Offspring

Toxins ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (12) ◽  
pp. 853
Author(s):  
Marina de Oliveira Rodrigues Barbosa ◽  
Maria Eliza F. do Val de Paulo ◽  
Ana Leonor Abrahão Nencioni
Keyword(s):  
Perinatal Period ◽  
Postnatal Period ◽  
Seizure Threshold ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Crude Venom ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Few Data ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Convulsive Threshold

Few data are available in the literature describing the long-term effects of envenoming in the perinatal period. In this study, the relationship between envenoming of lactating rats and possible behavioral changes in the mother and in her offspring were investigated. Lactating Wistar rats received a single dose of T. serrulatus crude venom on postnatal days 2 (V2), 10 (V10) or 16 (V16), and had their maternal behavior evaluated. The seizure threshold was evaluated in adulthood offspring. A decrease in maternal care during envenoming was observed in V2 and V10 groups. The retrieval behavior was absent in the V2 group, and a lower seizure threshold in the adult offspring of all groups was observed. During envenoming, mothers stayed away from their offspring for a relatively long time. Maternal deprivation during the early postnatal period is one of the most potent stressors for pups and could be responsible, at least in part, for the decrease in the convulsive threshold of the offspring since stress is pointed to as a risk factor for epileptogenesis. Furthermore, the scorpionic accident generates an intense immune response, and inflammation in neonates increases the susceptibility to seizures in adulthood. Therefore, maternal envenoming during lactation can have adverse effects on offspring in adulthood.

scholarly journals The effects of carbon emissions, rainfall, temperature, inflation, population, and unemployment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia: An ARDL investigation

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. e0248743
Author(s):  
Md Mazharul Islam ◽  
Majed Alharthi ◽  
Md Wahid Murad
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Carbon Emissions ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Unemployment Problem

Objective While macroeconomic and environmental events affect the overall economic performance of nations, there has not been much research on the effects of important macroeconomic and environmental variables and how these can influence progress. Saudi Arabia’s economy relies heavily on its vast reserves of petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, gold, and copper, but its economic growth trajectory has been uneven since the 1990s. This study examines the effects of carbon emissions, rainfall, temperature, inflation, population, and unemployment on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. Methods Annual time series dataset covering the period 1990–2019 has been extracted from the World Bank and General Authority of Meteorology and Environmental Protection, Saudi Arabia. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration has served to investigate the long-run relationships among the variables. Several time-series diagnostic tests have been conducted on the long-term ARDL model to check its robustness. Results Saudi Arabia can still achieve higher economic growth without effectively addressing its unemployment problem as both the variables are found to be highly significantly but positively cointegrated in the long-run ARDL model. While the variable of carbon emissions demonstrated a negative effect on the nation’s economic growth, the variables of rainfall and temperate were to some extent cointegrated into the nation’s economic growth in negative and positive ways, respectively. Like most other nations the short-run effects of inflation and population on economic growth do vary, but their long-term effects on the same are found to be positive. Conclusions Saudi Arabia can achieve both higher economic growth and lower carbon emissions simultaneously even without effectively addressing the unemployment problem. The nation should utilize modern scientific technologies to annual rainfall losses and to reduce annual temperature in some parts of the country in order to achieve higher economic growth.

scholarly journals CAN FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT REDUCE UNEMPLOYMENT IN HOME COUNTRIES? ANALYSIS FOR ASEAN COUNTRY

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 143
Author(s):  
ELSA WIDIA ◽  
ENDRIZAL RIDWAN ◽  
FAJRI MUHARJA
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Direct Foreign Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asean Country

Direct Foreign Investment (FDI) has been considered as one of the important strategies in long-term economic development. FDI is seen not only as a capital transfer but also has an important effect on increasing the host economy. FDI then became popular in many countries, so it was interesting to analyze the effects produced, both positive and negative. This research focuses on countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) with the aim of conducting empirical studies on opportunities for employment creation by FDI. However, due to limited data in several countries, this study only involved Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Thailand. The type of data used in this study is annual data covering from 1980-2017. Using estimation Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) allows to see short-term and long-term effects. The test results prove that the influence between variables is more visible in the long run

The Relationship Between Adverse Childhood Experiences and Recidivism in a Sample of Juvenile Offenders in Community-Based Treatment

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (11) ◽  
pp. 1210-1242 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin T. Wolff ◽  
Michael T. Baglivio ◽  
Alex R. Piquero
Keyword(s):  
Juvenile Offenders ◽  
Adverse Childhood Experiences ◽  
Life Outcomes ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Childhood Experiences ◽  
Adverse Childhood ◽  
Juvenile Justice Policy ◽  
The Relationship

Adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been identified as a key risk factor for a range of negative life outcomes, including delinquency. Much less is known about how exposure to negative experiences relates to continued offending among juvenile offenders. In this study, we examine the effect of ACEs on recidivism in a large sample of previously referred youth from the State of Florida who were followed for 1 year after participation in community-based treatment. Results from a series of Cox hazard models suggest that ACEs increase the risk of subsequent arrest, with a higher prevalence of ACEs leading to a shorter time to recidivism. The relationship between ACEs and recidivism held quite well in demographic-specific analyses. Implications for empirical research on the long-term effects of traumatic childhood events and juvenile justice policy are discussed.

scholarly journals Short-Term and Long-Term Effects of Off-Job Activities on Recovery and Sleep: A Two-Wave Panel Study among Health Care Employees

2018 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 2044 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jan de Jonge ◽  
Akihito Shimazu ◽  
Maureen Dollard
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Sleep Quality ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Negatively Associated ◽  
Health Care Employees ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Job Activities

This study examined whether particular recovery activities after work have a positive or negative effect on employee recovery from work (i.e., cognitive, emotional, and physical detachment) and sleep quality. We used a two-wave panel study of 230 health care employees which enabled looking at both short-term and long-term effects (i.e., two-year time interval). Gender, age, marital status, children at home, education level, management position, and working hours were used as control variables. Hierarchical multiple regression analyses showed that work-related off-job activities were negatively associated with cognitive and emotional detachment in both the short and long run, whereas low-effort off-job activities were positively related to cognitive detachment in the short run. Moreover, household/care off-job activities were positively related to sleep quality in the long run, whereas physical off-job activities were negatively associated with sleep quality in the long run. The long-term findings existed beyond the strong effects of baseline detachment and sleep quality. This study highlights the importance of off-job recovery activities for health care employees’ detachment from work and sleep quality. Practical implications and avenues for further research are discussed.

Long-Term Effects

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Judith G. Kelley
Keyword(s):  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Considerable Time ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Administrative Framework

This chapter compares how several countries respond to recommendations by monitors in the long run, and whether the overall quality of elections improves throughout multiple monitored elections. Most monitoring efforts aim not simply to deter overt cheating in a single round of elections, but to bring changes in the long run. This is one reason many organizations invest considerable time on the ground. More than half of monitored elections have at least one pre-election visit by an organizational delegation, and in about 40 percent of elections at least one organization arrived a month or more in advance. Most importantly, international election monitors usually include many recommendations in their reports. These recommendations call attention to current problems in the legal and administrative framework for elections and often make concrete suggestions about how to address them.

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