scholarly journals Impact of Oil Price Fluctuation on the Economy of Nigeria, the Core Analysis for Energy Producing Countries

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jelilov Gylych ◽  
Abdullahi Ahmad Jibrin ◽  
Bilal Celik ◽  
Abdurrahman Isik
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
Level Of Significance ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation ◽  
Empirical Analyses

The study aims to find the short-run empirical analyses of the impact of oil price fluctuation on the monetary instrument (Exchange rate, Inflation, Interest rate) in Nigeria. We explored the frequently used Toda–Yamamoto model (TY) model, by adopting the TY Modified Wald (MWALD) test approach to causality, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs).The study covered the period 1995 to 2018 (monthly basis), and our findings from MWALD test indicated that there is a uni-directional causality of the log of oil price (lnoilpr) to log of the exchange rate (lnexchr) at 10% level of significance, also there is a contemporaneous response of log of consumer price index (lncpi) to log of exchange rate (lnexchr) and log of interest rate (lnintr), and jointly (lnoilpr, lncpi and lnintr) granger cause lncpi. Also at 5% level of significance lnintr responded due to positive change in lnoilpr and lnexchr, and jointly causes lnintr at 5% level of significance. This is complimented with our findings in FEVDs, and IRFs. The empirical analyses shows that oil price is a strong determining factor of exchange rate, cost of borrowing and directly influences inflationary or deflationary tendencies in Nigeria..

scholarly journals Money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price influence on inflation in South Africa

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 594-605 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphael Tabani Mpofu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Development Strategy ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Policy Framework ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables

Price stability is critical for South Africa’s economic development strategy, and, based on previous studies, to effectively achieve this, requires a good understanding of the relationship between inflation and selected macroeconomic variables of broad money supply, interest rate, exchange rate and oil price. Monthly data are employed from January, 1999 through September, 2010. To determine this relationship, the independent variables were tested for multicollinearity, and thereafter a multiple regression model was developed. The findings from the study show that approximately 97% of the consumer price index movement is explained by the four macroeconomic variables. The study confirms that money supply and exchange rates have a strong positive relationship with inflation and have to be managed. Interest rates and oil price, on the other hand, have a significant negative relationship with inflation and should be part of a macroeconomic policy framework. This requires managing the delicate balance between a desirable level of inflation in support of economic growth and development and an unacceptable level of inflation that leads to price instability.

scholarly journals Macroeconomic Effects of Global Food and Oil Price Shocks to the Pakistan Economy: A Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) Analysis.

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (4II) ◽  
pp. 491-511 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Arshad Khan ◽  
Ayaz Ahmed
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Food Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

This study examines the transmission channels through which the global food and oil price shocks affects selected macroeconomic variables including inflation rate, output, money balances, interest rate and real effective exchange rate for Pakistan using monthly data over the period 1990M1-2011M7. An empirical analysis is carried out by employing structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) framework. Generalised Impulse Response Functions and Generalised Forecast Variance Decompositions are employed to track the impact of oil and food price shocks to Pakistan‘s economy. Results suggest that oil price shock affects industrial production, appreciates real effective exchange rate negatively and affect inflation and interest rate positively. Whereas, following food price shocks, industrial output increases. Similarly, interest rate and inflation rate responds positively following food price shocks. However, the variation in interest rate due to food price shock is relatively larger than that of oil price shocks. Generalised impulse response functions reveal that real effective exchange rate is most important source of disturbances following either oil price or food price shocks. Generalised forecast variance decompositions analysis also supports the findings based on generalised impulse response functions. The result clearly reveals that oil and food price shocks significantly affect output, short-term interest rate, inflation rate and real effective exchange rate. However, among all, real effective exchange rate has seen a dominant source of variations in Pakistan. This implies that supply-side and demand-side disturbances originated by external shocks are the major sources of inflation (stagflation) in Pakistan. Keywords: Oil and Food Price Shocks, SVAR, GIRFs, GFEVDs, Pakistan

The impact of international crude oil price fluctuation on the exchange rate of petroleum-importing countries: a summary of recent studies

2018 ◽  
Vol 95 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 227-239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Qiang ◽  
Aimei Lin ◽  
Chao Zhao ◽  
Zhenhua Liu ◽  
Manzhi Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Price Fluctuation ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Oil Price Fluctuation

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

scholarly journals Factors Affecting the Performance of Kuwait Stock Market

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 23
Author(s):  
Ebrahim Merza ◽  
Sayed-Abbas Almusawi
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Insurance Sector

<p>This paper aims at finding the effective factors that influence three sectors in Kuwait stock exchange market (KSE) in addition to the whole stock market. The three sectors are banking, real estate and insurance sectors. The paper measures KSE performance through the average share prices calculated on a quarterly basis starting from 2005 until first quarter of 2015. It is found that each sector behaves differently towards macroeconomic variables. The most important determinants for the KSE overall market performance were found to be gold price and the deposits rate. Individually, the banking sector is influenced by consumer price index, interest rate on loans, oil price and gold price. The insurance sector is influenced by money supply, residential real estate price and oil price. The real estate sector is influenced by the exchange rate with respect to US dollars, interest rate on loans, oil price and gold price.</p>

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