Assessing the Potential Impacts of Four Climate Change Scenarios on the Discharge of the Simiyu River, Tanzania Using the SWAT Model

10.5772/56453 ◽  
2013 ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alain Lubini ◽  
Jan Adamowski
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios

Impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality in the upper Dong Nai river basin, Vietnam

2018 ◽  
pp. 70-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Le Viet Thang ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Ho Long Phi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Quality ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Sediment Load ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Nutrient Load ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

In this study, we investigated the impact of climate change on streamflow and water quality (TSS, T-N, and T-P loads) in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model is a reasonable tool for simulating streamflow and water quality for this basin. Based on the well-calibrated SWAT model, the responses of streamflow, sediment load, and nutrient load to climate change were simulated. Climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were developed from five GCM simulations (CanESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) using the delta change method. The results indicated that climate in the study area would become warmer and wetter in the future. Climate change leads to increases in streamflow, sediment load, T-N load, and T-P load. Besides that, the impacts of climate change would exacerbate serious problems related to water shortage in the dry season and soil erosion and degradation in the wet season. In addition, it is indicated that changes in sediment yield and nutrient load due to climate change are larger than the corresponding changes in streamflow.

scholarly journals EFFECT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON POTENTIAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION IN THE UPPER BEAS BASIN OF THE WESTERN INDIAN HIMALAYA

2019 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W6 ◽  
pp. 51-57
Author(s):  
S. Rani ◽  
S. Sreekesh ◽  
P. Krishnan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Research ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Indian Agricultural Research Institute ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
Indian Himalaya ◽  
Near Future

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> Appraisal of potential evapotranspiration (PET) is needed for estimating the agricultural water requirement and understanding hydrological processes in an arena. Therefore, aim of the paper was to estimate the PET in the upper Beas basin, situated in the Western Indian Himalaya, under future climate change scenarios (by mid-21st century). Climate data (1969&amp;ndash;2010) of Manali, Bhuntar and Katrain were obtained from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI). Landsat data were used for mapping land use/land cover (LULC) conditions of the basin through decision tree technique. Elevation detail of the catchment area is derived from the Cartosat-1 digital elevation model (DEM). Simulations of PET were done by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The model was calibrated using the average monthly discharge data from Thalout station. The study found fluctuations in PET under different climate change scenarios. It is likely to increase in near future owing to the rise in temperature. The higher water demand can be met from the excess snowmelt water reaching the lower basin area during the cropping seasons. This study will be helpful to understand water availability conditions in the upper Beas basin in the near future.</p>

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change on Crop Yield and Irrigation in the Monocacy River Watershed, USA

Climate ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 139
Author(s):  
Manashi Paul ◽  
Sijal Dangol ◽  
Vitaly Kholodovsky ◽  
Amy R. Sapkota ◽  
Masoud Negahban-Azar ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yield ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Watershed ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Crop yield depends on multiple factors, including climate conditions, soil characteristics, and available water. The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of projected temperature and precipitation changes on crop yields in the Monocacy River Watershed in the Mid-Atlantic United States based on climate change scenarios. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate watershed hydrology and crop yield. To evaluate the effect of future climate projections, four global climate models (GCMs) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5, 6, and 8.5) were used in the SWAT model. According to all GCMs and RCPs, a warmer climate with a wetter Autumn and Spring and a drier late Summer season is anticipated by mid and late century in this region. To evaluate future management strategies, water budget and crop yields were assessed for two scenarios: current rainfed and adaptive irrigated conditions. Irrigation would improve corn yields during mid-century across all scenarios. However, prolonged irrigation would have a negative impact due to nutrients runoff on both corn and soybean yields compared to rainfed condition. Decision tree analysis indicated that corn and soybean yields are most influenced by soil moisture, temperature, and precipitation as well as the water management practice used (i.e., rainfed or irrigated). The computed values from the SWAT modeling can be used as guidelines for water resource managers in this watershed to plan for projected water shortages and manage crop yields based on projected climate change conditions.

Hydrologic response to climate change: a case study for the Be River Catchment, Vietnam

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 207-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Tadashi Suetsugi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
River Catchment ◽  
Calibration And Validation ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Impact

The Be River Catchment was studied to quantify the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow using a multi-model ensemble approach. Climate change scenarios (A1B and B1) were developed from an ensemble of four GCMs (general circulation models) (CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1 and HadCM3) that showed good performance for the Be River Catchment through statistical evaluations between 15 GCM control simulations and the corresponding time series of observations at annual and monthly levels. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to investigate the impact on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The model was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow records. The calibration and validation results indicated that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well, with Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency exceeding 0.78 for the Phuoc Long station and 0.65 for the Phuoc Hoa station, for both calibration and validation at daily and monthly steps. Their differences in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios were also investigated. The results indicate a 1.0–2.9 °C increase in annual temperature and a −4.0 to 0.7% change in annual precipitation corresponding to a change in streamflow of −6.0 to −0.4%. Large decreases in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Future Runoff Analysis in the Mekong River Basin under a Climate Change Scenario Using Deep Learning

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daeeop Lee ◽  
Giha Lee ◽  
Seongwon Kim ◽  
Sungho Jung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Mekong River ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Runoff Prediction ◽  
Runoff Analysis

In establishing adequate climate change policies regarding water resource development and management, the most essential step is performing a rainfall-runoff analysis. To this end, although several physical models have been developed and tested in many studies, they require a complex grid-based parameterization that uses climate, topography, land-use, and geology data to simulate spatiotemporal runoff. Furthermore, physical rainfall-runoff models also suffer from uncertainty originating from insufficient data quality and quantity, unreliable parameters, and imperfect model structures. As an alternative, this study proposes a rainfall-runoff analysis system for the Kratie station on the Mekong River mainstream using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model, a data-based black-box method. Future runoff variations were simulated by applying a climate change scenario. To assess the applicability of the LSTM model, its result was compared with a runoff analysis using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The following steps (dataset periods in parentheses) were carried out within the SWAT approach: parameter correction (2000–2005), verification (2006–2007), and prediction (2008–2100), while the LSTM model went through the process of training (1980–2005), verification (2006–2007), and prediction (2008–2100). Globally available data were fed into the algorithms, with the exception of the observed discharge and temperature data, which could not be acquired. The bias-corrected Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios were used to predict future runoff. When the reproducibility at the Kratie station for the verification period of the two models (2006–2007) was evaluated, the SWAT model showed a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) value of 0.84, while the LSTM model showed a higher accuracy, NSE = 0.99. The trend analysis result of the runoff prediction for the Kratie station over the 2008–2100 period did not show a statistically significant trend for neither scenario nor model. However, both models found that the annual mean flow rate in the RCP 8.5 scenario showed greater variability than in the RCP 4.5 scenario. These findings confirm that the LSTM runoff prediction presents a higher reproducibility than that of the SWAT model in simulating runoff variation according to time-series changes. Therefore, the LSTM model, which derives relatively accurate results with a small amount of data, is an effective approach to large-scale hydrologic modeling when only runoff time-series are available.

scholarly journals Climate change impacts on nutrient loads in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment (UK)

2002 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Bouraoui ◽  
L. Galbiati ◽  
G. Bidoglio
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Nutrient Loads ◽  
Nitrogen And Phosphorus ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This study assessed the impact of potential climate change on the nutrient loads to surface and sub-surface waters from agricultural areas and was conducted using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The study focused on a 3500 km2 catchment located in northern England, the Yorkshire Ouse. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using sets of five years' measurements of nitrate and ortho-phosphorus concentrations and water flow. To increase the reliability of the hydrological model predictions, an uncertainty analysis was conducted by perturbing input parameters using a Monte-Carlo technique. The SWAT model was then run using a baseline scenario corresponding to an actual measured time series of daily temperature and precipitation, and six climate change scenarios. Because of the increase in temperature, all climate scenarios introduced an increase of actual evapotranspiration. Faster crop growth and an increased nutrient uptake resulted, as did an increase of annual losses of total nitrogen and phosphorus, however, with strong seasonal differences. Keywords: SWAT model, climate change, nutrient loads

scholarly journals EVALUATING THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON STREAMFLOW IN SREPOK WATERSHED

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 18-32
Author(s):  
Khoi Nguyen Dao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Large Decrease ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Delta Change ◽  
Water Assessment ◽  
Soil And Water ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

In this paper, the author investigated the effects of climate change on streamflow in Srepok watershed. The climate change scenarios were built by downscaling method (delta change method) based on the outputs of MIROC 3.2 Hires GCM. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was used to investigate the impacts on streamflow under climate change scenarios. The calibration and validation results showed that the SWAT model was able to simulate the streamflow well. Their difference in simulating the streamflow under future climate scenarios was also investigated. Results indicated a 1.3-3.9oC increase in annual temperature and a -4.4 to -0.5% decreases in annual precipitation corresponded to a decrease in streamflow of about -7.6 to -2.8%. The large decrease in precipitation and runoff are observed in the dry season.

scholarly journals Coupling Remote Sensing and Hydrological Model for Evaluating the Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow in Data-Scarce Environment

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (24) ◽  
pp. 14025
Author(s):  
Fazlullah Akhtar ◽  
Usman Khalid Awan ◽  
Christian Borgemeister ◽  
Bernhard Tischbein
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Streamflow Data ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The Kabul River Basin (KRB) in Afghanistan is densely inhabited and heterogenic. The basin’s water resources are limited, and climate change is anticipated to worsen this problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of data to measure the impacts of climate change on the KRB’s current water resources. The objective of the current study is to introduce a methodology that couples remote sensing and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for simulating the impact of climate change on the existing water resources of the KRB. Most of the biophysical parameters required for the SWAT model were derived from remote sensing-based algorithms. The SUFI-2 technique was used for calibrating and validating the SWAT model with streamflow data. The stream-gauge stations for monitoring the streamflow are not only sparse, but the streamflow data are also scarce and limited. Therefore, we selected only the stations that are properly being monitored. During the calibration period, the coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were 0.75–0.86 and 0.62–0.81, respectively. During the validation period (2011–2013), the NSE and R2 values were 0.52–0.73 and 0.65–0.86, respectively. The validated SWAT model was then used to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on streamflow. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4-4) was used to extract the data for the climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) from the CORDEX domain. The results show that streamflow in most tributaries of the KRB would decrease by a maximum of 5% and 8.5% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, streamflow for the Nawabad tributary would increase by 2.4% and 3.3% under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. To mitigate the impact of climate change on reduced/increased surface water availability, the SWAT model, when combined with remote sensing data, can be an effective tool to support the sustainable management and strategic planning of water resources. Furthermore, the methodological approach used in this study can be applied in any of the data-scarce regions around the world.

scholarly journals Assessment of Water Supply Stability for Drought-Vulnerable Boryeong Multipurpose Dam in South Korea Using Future Dry Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 2403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim ◽  
Lee ◽  
Kim ◽  
Kim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Dry Conditions ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Multipurpose Dam

This study assessed the water supply stability for Boryeong multipurpose dam by applying future dry climate change scenarios and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). CMCC-CM, INM-CM4, and IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were selected as the future dry conditions using Runs theory and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). For historical (1980–1999), present (2000–2019), and future periods (2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s) of the 6 scenarios, SWAT model was used to simulate the future dam water supply stability. The stability was evaluated in terms of reliability (RT), resilience (RS), and vulnerability (V) based on the monthly target storage. The results showed that the future RT can be decreased to 0.803 in 2050s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 8.5 scenario from present 0.955. The future RS and V showed the minimum value of 0.003 and the biggest value of 3567.6 × 106 m3 in 2070s IPSL-CM5A-MR RCP 4.5 scenario. The future RT, RS, and V showed that the dam has low resilience and is vulnerable to future drought scenarios.

scholarly journals Simulated Impacts of Climate Change on Surface Water Yields over the Sondu Basin in Kenya

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 161-173
Author(s):  
Stephen Kibe Rwigi ◽  
Jeremiah N. Muthama ◽  
Alfred O. Opere ◽  
Franklin J. Opijah ◽  
Francis N. Gichuki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Assessment Tool ◽  
Swat Model ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Fourth Generation ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Time Step ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Potential impacts of climate change on surface water yields over the Sondu River basin in the western region of Kenya were analysed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with climate input data obtained from the fourth generation coupled Ocean-Atmosphere European Community Hamburg Model (ECHAM4) using the Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) model. Daily time step regional climate scenarios at a spatial grid resolution of 0.44Ëš over the Eastern Africa region were matched to the Sondu river basin and used to calibrate and validate the SWAT model.Analysis of historical and projected rainfall over the basin strongly indicated that the climate of the area will significantly change with wetter climates being experienced by 2030 and beyond. Projected monthly rainfall distribution shows increasing trends in the relatively dry DJF and SON seasons while showing decreasing trends in the relatively wet MAM and JJA seasons. Potential changes in water yields resulting from climate change were computed by comparing simulated yields under climate change scenarios with those simulated under baseline conditions. There was evidence of substantial increases in water yields ranging between 88% and 110% of the baseline yields by 2030 and 2050 respectively. Although simulated water yields are subject to further verification from observed values, this study has provided useful information about potential changes in water yields as a result of climate change over the Sondu River basin and in similar basins in this region.

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