How Vertical Wind Shear Affects Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change: An Overview

Abstract The influence of a uniform flow on the structural changes of a tropical cyclone (TC) is investigated using the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). Idealized experiments are performed on either an f plane or a β plane. A strong uniform flow on an f plane results in a weaker vortex due to the development of a vertical wind shear induced by the asymmetric vertical motion and a rotation of upper-level anticyclone. The asymmetric vertical motion also reduces the secondary circulation of the vortex. On a β plane with no flow, a broad anticyclonic flow is found to the southeast of the vortex, which expands with time. Similar to the f-plane case, asymmetric vertical motion and vertical wind shear are also found. This beta-induced shear weakens the no-flow case significantly relative to that on an f plane. When a uniform flow is imposed on a β plane, an easterly flow produces a stronger asymmetry whereas a westerly flow reduces it. In addition, an easterly uniform flow tends to strengthen the beta-induced shear whereas a westerly flow appears to reduce it by altering the magnitude and direction of the shear vector. As a result, a westerly flow enhances TC development while an easterly flow reduces it. The vortex tilt and midlevel warming found in this study agree with the previous investigations of vertical wind shear. A strong uniform flow with a constant f results in a tilted and deformed potential vorticity at the upper levels. For a variable f, such tilting is more pronounced for a vortex in an easterly flow, while a westerly flow reduces the tilt. In addition, the vortex tilt appears to be related to the midlevel warming such that the warm core in the lower troposphere cannot extent upward, which leads to the subsequent weakening of the TC.

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Effect of TC–Trough Interaction on the Intensity Change of Two Typhoons

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf836.1 ◽

2005 ◽

Vol 20 (2) ◽

pp. 199-211 ◽

Cited By ~ 16

Author(s):

Hui Yu ◽

H. Joe Kwon

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Wind Shear ◽

Large Scale ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Eddy Flux ◽

Upper Troposphere ◽

Shallow Layer ◽

Upper Level

Abstract Using large-scale analyses, the effect of tropical cyclone–trough interaction on tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change is readdressed by studying the evolution of upper-level eddy flux convergence (EFC) of angular momentum and vertical wind shear for two TCs in the western North Pacific [Typhoons Prapiroon (2000) and Olga (1999)]. Major findings include the following: 1) In spite of decreasing SST, the cyclonic inflow associated with a midlatitude trough should have played an important role in Prapiroon’s intensification to its maximum intensity and the maintenance after recurvature through an increase in EFC. The accompanied large vertical wind shear is concentrated in a shallow layer in the upper troposphere. 2) Although Olga also recurved downstream of a midlatitude trough, its development and maintenance were not strongly influenced by the trough. A TC could maintain itself in an environment with or without upper-level eddy momentum forcing. 3) Both TCs started to decay over cold SST in a large EFC and vertical wind shear environment imposed by the trough. 4) Uncertainty of input adds difficulties in quantitative TC intensity forecasting.

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A Balanced Tropical Cyclone Test Case for AGCMs with Background Vertical Wind Shear

Monthly Weather Review ◽

10.1175/mwr-d-14-00366.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 143 (5) ◽

pp. 1762-1781 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Fei He ◽

Derek J. Posselt ◽

Colin M. Zarzycki ◽

Christiane Jablonowski

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Wind Shear ◽

General Circulation ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Circulation Model ◽

Background Field ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Test Case ◽

The Impact

Abstract This paper presents a balanced tropical cyclone (TC) test case designed to improve current understanding of how atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) configurations affect simulated TC development and behavior. It consists of an analytic initial condition comprising two independently balanced components. The first provides a vortical TC seed, while the second adds a planetary-scale zonal flow with height-dependent velocity and imposes background vertical wind shear (VWS) on the TC seed. The environmental flow satisfies the steady-state hydrostatic primitive equations in spherical coordinates and is in balance with other background field variables (e.g., temperature, surface geopotential). The evolution of idealized TCs in the test case framework is illustrated in 10-day simulations performed with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 5.1.1 (CAM 5.1.1). Environmental wind profiles with different magnitudes, directions, and vertical inflection points are applied to ensure that the technique is robust to changes in the VWS characteristics. The well-known shear-induced intensity change and structural asymmetry in tropical cyclones are well captured. Sensitivity of TC evolution to small perturbations in the initial vortex is also quantitatively addressed to validate the numerical robustness of the technique. It is concluded that the enhanced TC test case can be used to evaluate the impact of model choice (e.g., resolution, physical parameterizations) on the simulation and representation of TC-like vortices in AGCMs.

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Computing Deep-Tropospheric Vertical Wind Shear Analyses for Tropical Cyclone Applications: Does the Methodology Matter?

Weather and Forecasting ◽

10.1175/waf-d-13-00147.1 ◽

2014 ◽

Vol 29 (5) ◽

pp. 1169-1180 ◽

Cited By ~ 20

Author(s):

Christopher S. Velden ◽

John Sears

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Wind Shear ◽

Environmental Influence ◽

Traditional Approach ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Vertical Wind ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Wind Fields ◽

Wind Structure ◽

Vector Difference

Abstract Vertical wind shear is well known in the tropical cyclone (TC) forecasting community as an important environmental influence on storm structure and intensity change. The traditional way to define deep-tropospheric vertical wind shear in most prior research studies, and in operational forecast applications, is to simply use the vector difference of the 200- and 850-hPa wind fields based on global model analyses. However, is this rather basic approach to approximate vertical wind shear adequate for most TC applications? In this study, the traditional approach is compared to a different methodology for generating fields of vertical wind shear as produced by the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (CIMSS). The CIMSS fields are derived with heavy analysis weight given to available high-density satellite-derived winds. The resultant isobaric analyses are then used to create two mass-weighted layer-mean wind fields, one upper and one lower tropospheric, which are then differenced to produce the deep-tropospheric vertical wind shear field. The principal novelty of this approach is that it does not rely simply on the analyzed winds at two discrete levels, but instead attempts to account for some of the variable vertical wind structure in the calculation. It will be shown how the resultant vertical wind shear fields derived by the two approaches can diverge significantly in certain situations; the results also suggest that in many cases it is superior in depicting the wind structure's impact on TCs than the simple two-level differential that serves as the common contemporary vertical wind shear approximation.

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Tropical Cyclone Intensity Evolution Modeled as a Dependent Hidden Markov Process

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-19-0027.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 32 (22) ◽

pp. 7837-7855 ◽

Cited By ~ 2

Author(s):

Renzhi Jing ◽

Ning Lin

Keyword(s):

Tropical Cyclone ◽

Large Scale ◽

Hidden Markov ◽

Storm Track ◽

Vertical Wind Shear ◽

Intensity Change ◽

Tropical Cyclone Intensity ◽

Cyclone Intensity ◽

Storm Intensity ◽

Intensity Evolution

Abstract A hidden Markov model is developed to simulate tropical cyclone intensity evolution dependent on the surrounding large-scale environment. The model considers three unobserved (hidden) discrete states of storm intensity change and associates each state with a probability distribution of intensity change. The storm’s transit from one state to another is described as a Markov chain. Both the intensity change and state transit components of the model are dependent on environmental variables including potential intensity, vertical wind shear, relative humidity, and ocean feedback. This Markov Environment-Dependent Hurricane Intensity Model (MeHiM) is used to simulate the evolution of storm intensity along the storm track over the ocean, and a simple decay model is added to estimate the intensity change when the storm moves over land. Data for the North Atlantic (NA) basin from 1979 to 2014 (555 storms) are used for model development and evaluation. Probability distributions of 6- and 24-h intensity change, lifetime maximum intensity, and landfall intensity based on model simulations and observations compare well. Although the MeHiM is still limited in fully describing rapid intensification, it shows a significant improvement over previous statistical models (e.g., linear, nonlinear, and finite mixture models).

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