THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF STRENGTH AND WEIGHT IN PROCESSING NEW INFORMATION IN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING MARKET

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-28
Author(s):  
Greg Durham ◽  
Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan
Keyword(s):  
San Antonio ◽  
College Football ◽  
Price Formation ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
State University ◽  
Montana State University ◽  
New Information ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Football Betting ◽  
Insight Into

Griffin and Tversky (1992) suggest that individuals, when formulating posterior probabilities based on the available evidence, tend to overreact to a new piece of evidence’s strength while underreacting to the relative importance of its weight.  We test this prediction using the college football betting market, a market that is commonly employed in tests for efficiency and rationality.  Using average points in excess of the spread and streak against the spread as measures for strength and weight, respectively, we find that bettors overreact to strength and underreact to weight.  These results are consistent with the predictions of Griffin and Tversky, as well as with the findings of Sorescu and Subrahmanyam (2006) and Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny (1998) in financial market settings.  Our work also provides insight into how behavioral biases might affect price-formation processes in other markets.The authors thank Tod Perry, Omar Shehryar, and Kumar Venkataraman for their careful feedback and thoughtful suggestions.  The authors are also grateful for comments from seminar participants at the 2008 Midwest Finance Association meetings in San Antonio and 2008 Southwestern Finance Association meetings in Houston, as well as from seminar participants at Montana State University.  (The authors are responsible for any outstanding errors in this paper.)

Team Travel Effects and the College Football Betting Market

2015 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 388-425 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Jay Coleman
Keyword(s):  
Market Efficiency ◽  
College Football ◽  
Temperature Elevation ◽  
Home Team ◽  
Late Season ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Time Zones ◽  
Football Betting

This research examines whether the college football betting line and over/under accurately assimilate travel effects on visiting teams, including time zones traversed; direction and distance traveled; and temperature, elevation, and aridity changes. We investigate the market’s accuracy at predicting winners, point differentials, and points scored and examine its market efficiency, that is, whether travel affects the chance the home team covers the spread or the chance that an “over” bet wins. The betting market is found to be an inaccurate and inefficient processor of travel effects, most consistently for late-season games involving an underdog with a 1-hr time deficit versus its opponent.

scholarly journals Progressive Damage Modeling of Fiberglass/Epoxy Composites with Manufacturing Induced Waves Common to Wind Turbine Blades

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jared W. Nelson ◽  
Trey W. Riddle ◽  
Douglas S. Cairns
Keyword(s):  
Turbine Blades ◽  
Progressive Damage ◽  
State University ◽  
Damage Modeling ◽  
Wind Turbine Blades ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Discrete Method ◽  
Manufacturing Defects ◽  
Montana State University ◽  
Insight Into

Abstract. As part of the Blade Reliability Collaborative, the Montana State University Composites Group has investigated the effects of manufacturing defects. To better understand and predict these effects, various progressive damage modeling approaches were investigated. While the use of damage modeling has increased with improved computational capabilities, they are often performed for worst-case scenarios where damage or defects are replaced with notches or holes. To contribute to the establishment of a protocol understanding and quantifying the effects of these defects, a three-round study was performed using continuum, discrete, and combined damage modeling. This approach relied on a systematically comparing consistency, accuracy and predictive capability for each model. These models were constructed to match the coupons from, and compare the results to, the characterization and material testing study. A standard defect case was chosen and initially used for each modeling approach to perform the qualitative and quantitative comparisons. It was found that while each model was able to show certain attributes, the most consistent, accurate, and predictive model was based on a combined continuum/discrete method. Overall, the results indicate that this combined approach may provide insight into blade performance with known defects when used in conjunction with a probabilistic flaw framework.

scholarly journals MEASURING THE EXTENT OF INSIDE TRADING IN HORSE BETTING MARKETS

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 21-41
Author(s):  
Adi Schnytzer ◽  
Martien Lamers ◽  
Vasiliki Makropoulou
Keyword(s):  
Insider Trading ◽  
Private Information ◽  
Inside Trading ◽  
Price Setting ◽  
Optimal Price ◽  
Potential Value ◽  
New Information ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Betting Markets ◽  
Football Betting

This paper develops a theoretical framework for and models optimal price setting by on-course bookmakers in the racetrack betting market. This framework suggests that opening prices should include a premium that compensates bookmakers for the risk that insiders will account for private information and exploit any mis-pricing made by the bookmakers. The model is an extension of the model developed by Makropoulou and Markellos (2007) for football betting to the racetrack betting market. Using an extensive dataset and performing Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the potential value of new information, we measure insider trading in the Australian racetrack betting market.

The “Large-Firm” Effect? Bettor Preferences and Market Prices in NCAA Football

2013 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rodney Paul ◽  
Andrew P. Weinbach ◽  
Eric Higger
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Small Firm ◽  
Small Firms ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
College Football ◽  
Market Prices ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Football Betting ◽  
Firm Effect

Abstract: NCAA football has a clear classification of “large” (AQ) and “small” (non-AQ) conferences.  This setting lends itself to the testing of the “small-firm” effect found in financial markets in the college football betting market.  The “small-firm” effect occurs when small cap firms outperform large cap firms; typically attributed to difficulty and costs in finding information on small firms.  In college football, AQ-teams win more than implied by efficiency against non-AQ teams.  At the same time, AQ teams receive a disproportionate share of bets on these games.  The likely rationale behind these findings is the incentives created by the BCS system which leads the point spread to not be a true random variable within this market.

THE IMPACT OF SENTIMENT ON POINT SPREADS IN THE COLLEGE FOOTBALL WAGERING MARKET

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Greg Durham ◽  
Tod Perry
Keyword(s):  
Financial Management ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
College Football ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
State University ◽  
Arizona State University ◽  
Montana State University ◽  
Management Association ◽  
Natural Analogues ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates whether sentimental bettors affect the point-spread-formation process in the college football wagering market, as well as whether this market is efficient.  Following Avery and Chevalier (1999), this study focuses solely on sources of sentiment that have natural analogues in the stock market, such as predictions of so-called experts, momentum in teams’ performances, teams that are highly visible, and teams with high fan avidity.  Sentiment relating to expert picks, even though the picks are uninformative, nonetheless is related to intraweek changes in spreads.  Also, bettors’ sentiment for recent performance against the spread, for teams in major conferences, and for teams with high fan avidity appears to be related to spreads moving during the week.  However, betting strategies designed to exploit any anticipated sentimental betting are marginally profitable at best, suggesting that rational arbitrageurs serve to correct most biases in spreads.The authors express thanks to Bruno Deschamps, Michael Hertzel, Michael Lemmon, J. Spencer Martin, Federico Nardari, Rodney Paul, and Mukunthan Santhanakrishnan for careful feedback and thoughtful suggestions.  The authors are also grateful for comments from seminar participants at the UC Riverside Conference on Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets, at the Financial Management Association meetings in Toronto, at Arizona State University, and at Montana State University.  Greg Durham expresses a special thanks to Jim Harmon for providing historical data related to the Harmon Forecast.  (The authors are responsible for any outstanding errors in this paper.)

In search of the source of informed trader information in the college football betting market

2005 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 143-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
William H. Dare ◽  
John M. Gandar ◽  
Richard A. Zuber * ◽  
Robert M. Pavlik
Keyword(s):  
College Football ◽  
Betting Market ◽  
Football Betting

Small rodent communities (Muridae) in Gabonese savannas: species diversity and biogeographical affinities

Mammalia ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean-François Mboumba ◽  
Maxime R. Hervé ◽  
Véronique Guyot ◽  
Frederic Ysnel
Keyword(s):  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Abundant Species ◽  
Small Rodent ◽  
Small Rodents ◽  
South West ◽  
New Information ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Mus Minutoides ◽  
Insight Into ◽  
Coastal Basin

Abstract The study contributes to the knowledge of species composition and biogeographical affinities of savannas rodent in Gabon. Unlike small rodents in Gabonese forests, there is little data on the diversity of small rodents in Gabonese savannas. The diversity and distribution of rodent murid communities was studied in four different types of savanna in Gabon: Coastal Basin (South-West), Lopé/Okanda (in the Center), Batéké Plateaux (Southeastern) and Ngougnié/ N’yanga (in the South). A total of 428 individuals representing six species were captured over 11,920 trap nights. Trap success was highly variable (2.2–6.9 %). The most abundant species were Mus minutoides (69%) followed by Lemniscomys striatus (21.5%). Indices of species richness varied from 2 to 5 and diversity (Shannon and Weaver) was low in the four savannas with the highest value at Ngougnié/N’yanga (H′ = 1.2). Species distributions show that Gabonese savanna small rodents conform to four distribution types, with one species known from Zambesian savannas exhibiting austral affinities (Pelomys campanae: occurs in three southern savannas). This new information provides important insight into the biogeography of small rodents at a local and regional level. Moreover, the correspondence analysis highlighted an influence of local ecological factors on population abundance.

Preliminary investigations into the life cycle of Ventruia inaequalis (Cooke) WINT. in South Australia.

1953 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 415 ◽  
Author(s):  
MW Jeffery
Keyword(s):  
Life Cycle ◽  
Primary Infection ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
New Information ◽  
One Year

Investigation into the possible sources of primary infection by the fungus Ventruia inaequalis (Cooke) Wint. in spring has been carried out. The results present new information on the life cycle of the pathogen under South Australian conditions. Sources of primary infection, such 'as lesions on one-year-old wood or overwintering superficial conidia on the trees, do not appear important. Bud-scale infection of dormant buds has been shown, and its relative importance is discussed. Ascospores are the most important source of primary infection. Their period of discharge extends to a later date than previously reported for South Australia and is considered in relation to leader shoot and late summer spot infection.

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