scholarly journals On Parameter Identification of Time Series Models Using Fuzzy Random Data Obtained as Vague Perceptions

2000 ◽  
Vol 2000 (0) ◽  
pp. 135-140
Author(s):  
Tokuo Fukuda
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Parameter Identification ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Random Data ◽  
Fuzzy Random

Fuzzy Autocorrelation Model with Confidence Intervals of Fuzzy Random Data

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-203 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoshiyuki Yabuuchi ◽  
◽  
Junzo Watada ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Confidence Intervals ◽  
Fuzzy Time Series ◽  
Economic Systems ◽  
Random Data ◽  
Human Behaviors ◽  
Section Data ◽  
Tick Data ◽  
Economic Analyses ◽  
Fuzzy Random

Economic analyses are typical methods based on timeseries data or cross-section data. Economic systems are complex because they involve human behaviors and are affected by many factors. When a system includes such uncertainty, as those concerning human behaviors, a fuzzy system approach plays a pivotal role in such analysis. In this paper, we propose a fuzzy autocorrelation model with confidence intervals of fuzzy random timeseries data. These confidence intervals play an essential role in dealing with fuzzy random data on the fuzzy autocorrelation model that we have presented. We analyze tick-by-tick data of stock transactions and compare two time-series models, a fuzzy autocorrelation model proposed by us, and a new fuzzy time-series model that we propose in this paper.

Time-Series Models in Marketing: Some Recent Developments

Marketing ZFP ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 32 (JRM 1) ◽  
pp. 24-29
Author(s):  
Marnik G. Dekimpe ◽  
Dominique M. Hanssens
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Recent Developments

A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN UNIVARIATE AND BIVARIATE TIME SERIES MODELS FOR CRUDE PALM OIL INDUSTRY IN PENINSULAR MALAYSIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 374
Author(s):  
Pauline Jin Wee Mah ◽  
Nur Nadhirah Nanyan
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Palm Oil ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Peninsular Malaysia ◽  
Time Series Models ◽  
Crude Palm Oil ◽  
Univariate Time Series ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Bivariate Time Series

The main purpose of this study is to compare the performances of univariate and bivariate models on four time series variables of the crude palm oil industry in Peninsular Malaysia. The monthly data for the four variables, which are the crude palm oil production, price, import and export, were obtained from Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) and Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC). In the first part of this study, univariate time series models, namely, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), fractionally integrated autoregressive moving average (ARFIMA) and autoregressive autoregressive (ARAR) algorithm were used for modelling and forecasting purposes. Subsequently, the dependence between any two of the four variables were checked using the residuals’ sample cross correlation functions before modelling the bivariate time series. In order to model the bivariate time series and make prediction, the transfer function models were used. The forecast accuracy criteria used to evaluate the performances of the models were the mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results of the univariate time series showed that the best model for predicting the production was ARIMA  while the ARAR algorithm were the best forecast models for predicting both the import and export of crude palm oil. However, ARIMA  appeared to be the best forecast model for price based on the MAE and MAPE values while ARFIMA  emerged the best model based on the RMSE value.  When considering bivariate time series models, the production was dependent on import while the export was dependent on either price or import. The results showed that the bivariate models had better performance compared to the univariate models for production and export of crude palm oil based on the forecast accuracy criteria used.

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