scholarly journals Prescription surveillance for early detection system of emerging and reemerging infectious disease outbreaks

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 523-525 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tamie Sugawara ◽  
Yasushi Ohkusa ◽  
Hirokazu Kawanohara ◽  
Miwako Kamei
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Early Detection ◽  
Detection System ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

scholarly journals Quantifying the hidden costs of imperfect detection for early detection surveillance

2019 ◽  
Vol 374 (1776) ◽  
pp. 20180261 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander J. Mastin ◽  
Frank van den Bosch ◽  
Femke van den Berg ◽  
Stephen R. Parnell
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Early Detection ◽  
Test Performance ◽  
Performance Test ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Phytophthora Ramorum ◽  
Detection Methods ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

The global spread of pathogens poses an increasing threat to health, ecosystems and agriculture worldwide. As early detection of new incursions is key to effective control, new diagnostic tests that can detect pathogen presence shortly after initial infection hold great potential for detection of infection in individual hosts. However, these tests may be too expensive to be implemented at the sampling intensities required for early detection of a new epidemic at the population level. To evaluate the trade-off between earlier and/or more reliable detection and higher deployment costs, we need to consider the impacts of test performance, test cost and pathogen epidemiology. Regarding test performance, the period before new infections can be first detected and the probability of detecting them are of particular importance. We propose a generic framework that can be easily used to evaluate a variety of different detection methods and identify important characteristics of the pathogen and the detection method to consider when planning early detection surveillance. We demonstrate the application of our method using the plant pathogen Phytophthora ramorum in the UK, and find that visual inspec-tion for this pathogen is a more cost-effective strategy for early detection surveillance than an early detection diagnostic test. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’. This theme issue is linked with the earlier issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’.

scholarly journals Infectious disease outbreaks in the African region: overview of events reported to the World Health Organization in 2018

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Mboussou ◽  
P. Ndumbi ◽  
R. Ngom ◽  
Z. Kassamali ◽  
O. Ogundiran ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Onset ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
World Health ◽  
African Region ◽  
Regional Office ◽  
Member States ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
The World

Abstract The WHO African region is characterised by the largest infectious disease burden in the world. We conducted a retrospective descriptive analysis using records of all infectious disease outbreaks formally reported to the WHO in 2018 by Member States of the African region. We analysed the spatio-temporal distribution, the notification delay as well as the morbidity and mortality associated with these outbreaks. In 2018, 96 new disease outbreaks were reported across 36 of the 47 Member States. The most commonly reported disease outbreak was cholera which accounted for 20.8% (n = 20) of all events, followed by measles (n = 11, 11.5%) and Yellow fever (n = 7, 7.3%). About a quarter of the outbreaks (n = 23) were reported following signals detected through media monitoring conducted at the WHO regional office for Africa. The median delay between the disease onset and WHO notification was 16 days (range: 0–184). A total of 107 167 people were directly affected including 1221 deaths (mean case fatality ratio (CFR): 1.14% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07%–1.20%)). The highest CFR was observed for diseases targeted for eradication or elimination: 3.45% (95% CI 0.89%–10.45%). The African region remains prone to outbreaks of infectious diseases. It is therefore critical that Member States improve their capacities to rapidly detect, report and respond to public health events.

scholarly journals Statistical methods for the prospective detection of infectious disease outbreaks: a review

2011 ◽  
Vol 175 (1) ◽  
pp. 49-82 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steffen Unkel ◽  
C. Paddy Farrington ◽  
Paul H. Garthwaite ◽  
Chris Robertson ◽  
Nick Andrews
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Statistical Methods ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks

scholarly journals Dot map cartograms for detection of infectious disease outbreaks: an application to Q fever, the Netherlands and pertussis, Germany

2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (26) ◽  
Author(s):  
Loes Soetens ◽  
Susan Hahné ◽  
Jacco Wallinga
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
The Netherlands ◽  
Q Fever ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Point Pattern ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Public Health Professionals ◽  
Potential Source ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
And Control

Geographical mapping of infectious diseases is an important tool for detecting and characterising outbreaks. Two common mapping methods, dot maps and incidence maps, have important shortcomings. The former does not represent population density and can compromise case privacy, and the latter relies on pre-defined administrative boundaries. We propose a method that overcomes these limitations: dot map cartograms. These create a point pattern of cases while reshaping spatial units, such that spatial area becomes proportional to population size. We compared these dot map cartograms with standard dot maps and incidence maps on four criteria, using two example datasets. Dot map cartograms were able to illustrate both incidence and absolute numbers of cases (criterion 1): they revealed potential source locations (Q fever, the Netherlands) and clusters with high incidence (pertussis, Germany). Unlike incidence maps, they were insensitive to choices regarding spatial scale (criterion 2). Dot map cartograms ensured the privacy of cases (criterion 3) by spatial distortion; however, this occurred at the expense of recognition of locations (criterion 4). We demonstrate that dot map cartograms are a valuable method for detection and visualisation of infectious disease outbreaks, which facilitates informed and appropriate actions by public health professionals, to investigate and control outbreaks.

scholarly journals SurvNet Electronic Surveillance System for Infectious Disease Outbreaks, Germany

2007 ◽  
Vol 13 (10) ◽  
pp. 1548-1555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gérard Krause ◽  
Doris Altmann ◽  
Daniel Faensen ◽  
Klaudia Porten ◽  
Justus Benzler ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Surveillance System ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Electronic Surveillance ◽  
Infectious Disease Outbreaks
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