scholarly journals Assessing the probability of crown fire initiation based on fire danger indices

2003 ◽  
Vol 79 (5) ◽  
pp. 976-983 ◽  
Author(s):  
Miguel G Cruz ◽  
Martin E Alexander ◽  
Ronald H Wakimoto
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Logistic Models ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Research Database ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Fire Initiation ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

The initiation of crown fires in conifer stands was modelled through logistic regression analysis by considering as independent variables a basic physical descriptor of the fuel complex structure and selected components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System. The study was based on a fire behaviour research database consisting of 63 experimental fires covering a relatively wide range of burning conditions and fuel type characteristics. Four models were built with decreasing input needs. Significant predictors of crown fire initiation were: canopy base height, wind speed measured at a height of 10 m in the open, and four components of the FWI System (i.e., Fine Fuel Moisture Code, Drought Code, Initial Spread Index and Buildup Index). The models predicted correctly the type of fire (i.e., surface or crown) between 90% and 66% of the time. The C index, a statistical measure, varied from 0.94 to 0.71, revealing good concordance between predicted probabilities and observed events. A comparison between the logistic models and Canadian Forest Fire Behaviour Prediction System models did not show any conclusive differences. The results of a limited evaluation involving two independent experimental fire data sets for distinctly different fuel complexes were encouraging. The logistic models built may have applicability in fire management decision support systems, allowing for the estimation of the probability of crown fire initiation at small and large spatial scales from commonly available fire environment and fire danger rating information. The relationships presented are considered valid for free-burning fires on level terrain in coniferous forests that have reached a pseudo steady-state and are not deemed applicable to dead conifer forests (i.e., insect-killed stands). Key words: Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System, crown fire initiation, fire behaviour, fire danger indices, logistic regression

scholarly journals Forest fire danger rating in complex topography – results from a case study in the Bavarian Alps in autumn 2011

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 2157-2167 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Schunk ◽  
C. Wastl ◽  
M. Leuchner ◽  
C. Schuster ◽  
A. Menzel
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Temperature Inversion ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Complex Topography ◽  
Pressure System ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Bavarian Alps ◽  
Forest Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

Abstract. Forest fire danger rating based on sparse meteorological stations is known to be potentially misleading when assigned to larger areas of complex topography. This case study examines several fire danger indices based on data from two meteorological stations at different elevations during a major drought period. This drought was caused by a persistent high pressure system, inducing a pronounced temperature inversion and its associated thermal belt with much warmer, dryer conditions in intermediate elevations. Thus, a massive drying of fuels, leading to higher fire danger levels, and multiple fire occurrences at mid-slope positions were contrasted by moderate fire danger especially in the valleys. The ability of fire danger indices to resolve this situation was studied based on a comparison with the actual fire danger as determined from expert observations, fire occurrences and fuel moisture measurements. The results revealed that, during temperature inversion, differences in daily cycles of meteorological parameters influence fire danger and that these are not resolved by standard meteorological stations and fire danger indices (calculated on a once-a-day basis). Additional stations in higher locations or high-resolution meteorological models combined with fire danger indices accepting at least hourly input data may allow reasonable fire danger calculations under these circumstances.

scholarly journals Comparison of Methods for the Assessment of Fire Danger in the Czech Republic

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 (5) ◽  
pp. 1285-1295 ◽  
Author(s):  
František Jurečka ◽  
Martin Možný ◽  
Jan Balek ◽  
Zdeněk Žalud ◽  
Miroslav Trnka
Keyword(s):  
Czech Republic ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Special Focus ◽  
Fire Weather ◽  
Fire Event ◽  
Fire Weather Index ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

The performance of fire indices based on weather variables was analyzed with a special focus on the Czech Republic. Three fire weather danger indices that are the basis of fire danger rating systems used in different parts of the world were assessed: the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI), Australian Forest Fire Danger Index (FFDI) and Finnish Forest Fire Index (FFI). The performance of the three fire danger indices was investigated at different scales and compared with actual fire events. First, the fire danger indices were analyzed for different land use types during the period 1956–2015. In addition, in the analysis, the three fire danger indices were compared with wildfire events during the period 2001–2015. The fire danger indices were also analyzed for the specific locality of the Bzenec area where a large forest fire event occurred in May 2012. The study also focused on the relationship between fire danger indices and forest fires during 2018 across the area of the Jihomoravský region. Comparison of the index values with real fires showed that the index values corresponded well with the occurrence of forest fires. The analysis of the year 2018 showed that the highest index values were reached on days with the greater fire occurrence. On days with 5 or 7 reported fires per day, the fire danger indices reached values between 3 and 4.

Simulated fire behaviour in young, postfire lodgepole pine forests

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kellen N. Nelson ◽  
Monica G. Turner ◽  
William H. Romme ◽  
Daniel B. Tinker
Keyword(s):  
Pinus Contorta ◽  
Stand Structure ◽  
Lodgepole Pine ◽  
Pine Forests ◽  
Fuel Moisture ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fire Initiation ◽  
Moisture Conditions ◽  
Simulated Fire

Early-seral forests are expanding throughout western North America as fire frequency and annual area burned increase, yet fire behaviour in young postfire forests is poorly understood. We simulated fire behaviour in 24-year-old lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia) stands in Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, United States using operational models parameterised with empirical fuel characteristics, 50–99% fuel moisture conditions, and 1–60kmhr−1 open winds to address two questions: [1] How does fireline intensity, and crown fire initiation and spread vary among young, lodgepole pine stands? [2] What are the contributions of fuels, moisture and wind on fire behaviour? Sensitivity analysis indicated the greatest contributors to output variance were stand structure mediated wind attenuation, shrub fuel loads and 1000-h fuel moisture for fireline intensity; crown base height for crown fire initiation; and crown bulk density and 1-h fuel moisture for crown fire spread. Simulation results predicted crown fire (e.g. passive, conditional or active types) in over 90% of stands at 50th percentile moisture conditions and wind speeds greater than 3kmhr−1. We conclude that dense canopy characteristics heighten crown fire potential in young, postfire lodgepole pine forests even under less than extreme wind and fuel moisture conditions.

scholarly journals Assessment of crown fire initiation and spread models in Mediterranean conifer forests by using data from field and laboratory experiments

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. e02S ◽  
Author(s):  
Francisco Rodríguez y Silva ◽  
Mercedes Guijarro ◽  
Javier Madrigal ◽  
Enrique Jiménez ◽  
Juan R. Molina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Fire Spread ◽  
Full Scale ◽  
Research Centre ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Bench Scale ◽  
Fire Experiment ◽  
Fire Initiation ◽  
Scale Experiment

Aims of study: To conduct the first full-scale crown fire experiment carried out in a Mediterranean conifer stand in Spain; to use different data sources to assess crown fire initiation and spread models, and to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation.Area of study: The Sierra Morena mountains (Coordinates ETRS89 30N: X: 284793-285038; Y: 4218650-4218766), southern Spain, and the outdoor facilities of the Lourizán Forest Research Centre, northwestern Spain.Material and methods: The full-scale crown fire experiment was conducted in a young Pinus pinea stand. Field data were compared with data predicted using the most used crown fire spread models. A small-scale experiment was developed with Pinus pinaster trees to evaluate the role of convection in crown fire initiation. Mass loss calorimeter tests were conducted with P. pinea needles to estimate residence time of the flame, which was used to validate the crown fire spread model.Main results: The commonly used crown fire models underestimated the crown fire spread rate observed in the full-scale experiment, but the proposed new integrated approach yielded better fits. Without wind-forced convection, tree crowns did not ignite until flames from an intense surface fire contacted tree foliage. Bench-scale tests based on radiation heat flux therefore offer a limited insight to full-scale phenomena.Research highlights: Existing crown fire behaviour models may underestimate the rate of spread of crown fires in many Mediterranean ecosystems. New bench-scale methods based on flame buoyancy and more crown field experiments allowing detailed measurements of fire behaviour are needed.

Modelling canopy fuel variables for Pinus radiata D. Don in NW Spain with low-density LiDAR data

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo González-Ferreiro ◽  
Ulises Diéguez-Aranda ◽  
Felipe Crecente-Campo ◽  
Laura Barreiro-Fernández ◽  
David Miranda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pinus Radiata ◽  
Airborne Lidar ◽  
Lidar Data ◽  
Low Density ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Fuel Characteristics ◽  
Fire Initiation ◽  
Behaviour Simulation ◽  
Simulation Systems

Crown fire initiation and spread are key elements in gauging fire behaviour potential in conifer forests. Crown fire initiation and spread models implemented in widely used fire behaviour simulation systems such as FARSITE and FlamMap require accurate spatially explicit estimation of canopy fuel complex characteristics. In the present study, we evaluated the potential use of very low-density airborne LiDAR (light detection and ranging) data (0.5 first returns m–2) – which is freely available for most of the Spanish territory – to estimate canopy fuel characteristics in Pinus radiata D. Don stands in north-western Spain. Regression analysis indicated strong relationships (R2=0.82–0.98) between LiDAR-derived metrics and field-based fuel estimates for stand height, canopy fuel load, and average and effective canopy base height Average and effective canopy bulk density (R2=0.59–0.70) were estimated indirectly from a set of previously modelled forest variables. The LiDAR-based models developed can be used to elaborate geo-referenced raster files to describe fuel characteristics. These files can be generated periodically, whenever new freely available airborne LiDAR data are released by the Spanish National Plan of Aerial Orthophotography, and can be used as inputs in fire behaviour simulation systems.

Interdependencies between flame length and fireline intensity in predicting crown fire initiation and crown scorch height

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 95 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin E. Alexander ◽  
Miguel G. Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Stem Bark ◽  
Flame Length ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Surface Fire ◽  
Crown Scorch ◽  
Fire Initiation ◽  
Bark Char

This state-of-knowledge review examines some of the underlying assumptions and limitations associated with the inter-relationships among four widely used descriptors of surface fire behaviour and post-fire impacts in wildland fire science and management, namely Byram’s fireline intensity, flame length, stem-bark char height and crown scorch height. More specifically, the following topical areas are critically examined based on a comprehensive review of the pertinent literature: (i) estimating fireline intensity from flame length; (ii) substituting flame length for fireline intensity in Van Wagner’s crown fire initiation model; (iii) the validity of linkages between the Rothermel surface fire behaviour and Van Wagner’s crown scorch height models; (iv) estimating flame height from post-fire observations of stem-bark char height; and (v) estimating fireline intensity from post-fire observations of crown scorch height. There has been an overwhelming tendency within the wildland fire community to regard Byram’s flame length–fireline intensity and Van Wagner’s crown scorch height–fireline intensity models as universal in nature. However, research has subsequently shown that such linkages among fire behaviour and post-fire impact characteristics are in fact strongly influenced by fuelbed structure, thereby necessitating consideration of fuel complex specific-type models of such relationships.

Corrigendum to: Interdependencies between flame length and fireline intensity in predicting crown fire initiation and crown scorch height

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin E. Alexander ◽  
Miguel G. Cruz
Keyword(s):  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Stem Bark ◽  
Flame Length ◽  
Flame Height ◽  
Crown Fire ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Surface Fire ◽  
Crown Scorch ◽  
Fire Initiation ◽  
Bark Char

This state-of-knowledge review examines some of the underlying assumptions and limitations associated with the inter-relationships among four widely used descriptors of surface fire behaviour and post-fire impacts in wildland fire science and management, namely Byram's fireline intensity, flame length, stem-bark char height and crown scorch height. More specifically, the following topical areas are critically examined based on a comprehensive review of the pertinent literature: (i) estimating fireline intensity from flame length; (ii) substituting flame length for fireline intensity in Van Wagner's crown fire initiation model; (iii) the validity of linkages between the Rothermel surface fire behaviour and Van Wagner's crown scorch height models; (iv) estimating flame height from post-fire observations of stem-bark char height; and (v) estimating fireline intensity from post-fire observations of crown scorch height. There has been an overwhelming tendency within the wildland fire community to regard Byram's flame length–fireline intensity and Van Wagner's crown scorch height–fireline intensity models as universal in nature. However, research has subsequently shown that such linkages among fire behaviour and post-fire impact characteristics are in fact strongly influenced by fuelbed structure, thereby necessitating consideration of fuel complex specific-type models of such relationships.

scholarly journals AJUSTE E DESEMPENHO DOS ÍNDICES DE PERIGO DE INCÊNDIOS NESTEROV, FMA E FMA+ NA EMPRESA FLORESTAL MACURIJE, CUBA

FLORESTA ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 42 (4) ◽  
pp. 651 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Pedro Ramos Rodríguez ◽  
Ronaldo Viana Soares ◽  
Antonio Carlos Batista ◽  
Alexandre França Tetto ◽  
Carlos Alberto Miranda Sierra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fire ◽  
Skill Score ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Occurrence ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Del Rio ◽  
Very High ◽  
Fire Danger Indices ◽  
Success Percentage

 ResumoEsta pesquisa foi desenvolvida com os objetivos de ajustar e comparar o desempenho dos índices de Nesterov, Fórmula de Monte Alegre (FMA) e Fórmula de Monte Alegre Alterada (FMA+)na Empresa Florestal Macurije, província Pinar del Río, Cuba. Os dados meteorológicos e de ocorrência de incêndios, referentes ao período 01/01/2006 a 31/12/2011, foram fornecidos pelo Centro Meteorológico, pelo Instituto de Hydroeconomia e pelo Corpo de Guarda-Bosques da Província. Dois cenários foram considerados: um utilizando a precipitação registrada na Estação Meteorológica de Isabel Rubio e outro considerando, além dela, 11 pluviômetros distribuídos na área do estudo. Foram considerados como não indicativos de probabilidade de ocorrência de incêndios as classes de perigo Nulo e Pequeno e como indicativo da probabilidade de ocorrências as classes de perigo Médio, Alto e Muito Alto. A partir dessa definição, foram calculados os valores de skill score e porcentagem de sucesso dos índices nos dois cenários, utilizando-se as escalas atuais e ajustadas das classes do perigo. Os resultados indicaram um melhor desempenho para os três índices com as escalas ajustadas, sendo mais eficiente o índice FMA+. Para este, os valores de skill score e porcentagem de sucesso foram 0,0737 e 57,10%, respectivamente.AbstractAdaptation and performance of Nesterov, FMA and FMA+ fire indices in Macurije Forest Company, Cuba. This research aimed to adapt Nesterov, Monte Alegre Formula (FMA) fire danger indices, and Modified Monte Alegre Formula (FMA+) to the Macurije Forest Company conditions as well as to compare their performances. The meteorological and forest fire occurrences databases were provided by the Meteorological Center, Hydro-economy Institute, and Forest Guard Corps of the Pinar del Rio province. All data referred to the period from 01/01/2006 to 31/12/2011. Two different scenarios were considered: one considering the rainfall measured at the Isabel Rubio Meteorological Station and other with the inclusion of 11 pluviometers distributed throughout the focused area. The performance of indices was evaluated by skill score methodology. Null and Low fire danger classes were considered as indicative of no fire occurrence and Medium, High and Very High classes as indicative of fire occurrence. Based on this definition the skill score and the success percentages of the indices had been calculated in the two proposed scenarios. The current and the adjusted scales of the danger indices were used. The results pointed to better performance for the three indices with the adjusted scale. The FMA+ index was the most efficient to forecast the fire danger in the focused region. The skill score and the success percentage of this index were 0.0737 and 57.10%, respectively.Keywords: Fire danger index; forest fire; fire prevention.  

Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 574 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Matt Jolly ◽  
Patrick H. Freeborn
Keyword(s):  
Great Basin ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Fire Behaviour ◽  
Radiative Power ◽  
In Fire ◽  
Fire Danger Indices

Wildland firefighters must assess potential fire behaviour in order to develop appropriate strategies and tactics that will safely meet objectives. Fire danger indices integrate surface weather conditions to quantify potential variations in fire spread rates and intensities and therefore should closely relate to observed fire behaviour. These indices could better inform fire management decisions if they were linked directly to observed fire behaviour. Here, we present a simple framework for relating fire danger indices to observed categorical wildland fire behaviour. Ordinal logistic regressions are used to model the probabilities of five distinct fire behaviour categories that are then combined with a safety-based weight function to calculate a Fire Behaviour Risk rating that can plotted over time and spatially mapped. We demonstrate its development and use across three adjacent US National Forests. Finally, we compare predicted fire behaviour risk ratings with observed variations in satellite-measured fire radiative power and we link these models with spatial fire danger maps to demonstrate the utility of this approach for landscape-scale fire behaviour risk assessment. This approach transforms fire weather conditions into simple and actionable fire behaviour risk metrics that wildland firefighters can use to support decisions that meet required objectives and keep people safe.

Application of artificial neural networks and logistic regression to the prediction of forest fire danger in Galicia using MODIS data

2012 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 1025 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mar Bisquert ◽  
Eduardo Caselles ◽  
Juan Manuel Sánchez ◽  
Vicente Caselles
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Forest Fire ◽  
Land Surface Temperature ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Fire Danger ◽  
Forest Fire Danger

Fire danger models are a very useful tool for the prevention and extinction of forest fires. Some inputs of these models, such as vegetation status and temperature, can be obtained from remote sensing images, which offer higher spatial and temporal resolution than direct ground measures. In this paper, we focus on the Galicia region (north-west of Spain), and MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) images are used to monitor vegetation status and to obtain land surface temperature as essential inputs in forest fire danger models. In this work, we tested the potential of artificial neural networks and logistic regression to estimate forest fire danger from remote sensing and fire history data. Remote sensing inputs used were the land surface temperature and the Enhanced Vegetation Index. A classification into three levels of fire danger was established. Fire danger maps based on this classification will facilitate fire prevention and extinction tasks.

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