Evaluation of forest management strategies based on Triad zoning

Triad forest management was analyzed for a New Brunswick Crown License. Fifteen forest value indicators were used to describe social, economic, and environmental outcomes from forecast Triad scenarios, including 36 scenarios where reserves and intensively managed area varied in 5% increments from 10% to 35%. Some indicators were most sensitive to intensive area (e.g., silviculture cost), other to reserve area (e.g., area containing large snags), and still others to extensive area (e.g., average harvest levels). Some indicators averaged arithmetically, and could be kept constant if increases in reserves were accompanied by equal increases in intensive area. Such averaging for timber supply is often a selling point made by Triad advocates. Indeed, many different scenarios generated the same annual harvest when averaged over the 100-year forecast time horizon; however, immediate reductions in operable timber inventory resulting from reserve increases caused short-term harvest reductions, while future gains in yield from intensive area increases caused long-term harvest increases. This timing offset between losses and gains of operable volume, and its effect on harvest timing, may be impediments to Triad implementation in jurisdictions where timber supply is fully utilized. This analysis presents methods and results that may be of value to forest managers contemplating implementation of Triad zoning.