scholarly journals Assessment of Broad-Leaved Forest Stand Management

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 365-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yasushi Suzuki ◽  
Tetsuhiko Yoshimura
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
Japanese Cedar ◽  
Charcoal Production ◽  
Fast Growing ◽  
Stand Management ◽  
Growing Stock ◽  
Large Trees ◽  
Quercus Glauca

There are many broad-leaved forests in Japan that were formerly managed for charcoal production, which have been abandoned for decades. Appropriate thinning can revitalize these forests if the cost balance of the management is positive. Two critical elements are the construction of spur roads to facilitate mechanized harvesting operations and management planning that considers stand properties such as the growing stock, species, and tree size distribution. We surveyed three abandoned former broad-leaved coppice stands; one coastal, one cool temperate and one warm temperate. The stock in all three stands exceeded 300 m3 ha-1, two- to three-fold the official forest registry data estimates. The dominant species in terms of tree numbers are Castanopsis sieboldii, Pieris japonica, and Quercus glauca. Medium-sized trees involve those well suited for firewood, i.e., Quercus acuta, Quercus glauca, Quercus serrata, etc. Each plot contained a few large trees that potentially have a high market value, e.g., Cinnamomum camphora, Zelkova serrata, Abies firma, etc. The average income from harvested trees was estimated to be 10200 JPY (Japanese Yen) m-3, whereas the thinning costs would be 3200 to 5400 JPY m-3, with the additional spur road construction costs. The management cost balance of a broad-leaved stand in a 60 year rotation was evaluated with both Net Present Value (NPV) (for interest rates of 1, 2, 3, and 4%) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). This balance was compared with that of a typical plantation stand of Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) and of a fast-growing plantation stand of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata). The estimated NPVs were largest for the fast-growing plantation stand, second largest for the typical plantation stand, and lowest for the broad-leaved stand with a NPV interest rate of 1 + %. However, the IRR of the broad-leaved stand was the highest, followed by that of the fast-growing plantation stand, while the IRR of the typical plantation stand was the lowest. This order was the same for NPVs assuming higher interest rates. 1 JPY=0.0086 € on April 29, 2019.

A dynamic programming algorithm for optimization of uneven-aged forest stands

1994 ◽  
Vol 24 (9) ◽  
pp. 1758-1765 ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Anderson ◽  
B. Bruce Bare
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Programming ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Dynamic Programming Algorithm ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Management Problem ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Stand Management ◽  
The Impact

A deterministic dynamic programming formulation of the transition uneven-aged stand management problem is presented. Using a previously published northern hardwoods growth model, a forward recursive, discrete, two-state problem that maximizes the net present value of harvested trees at each stage is developed. State variables represent the total number of trees and the total basal area per acre. A neighborhood storage concept previously published is used to reduce the number of states considered at each stage. Two harvest allocation rules are used to assign the harvested basal area to individual diameter classes. Terminal end point conditions and stage to stage sustainability are not required. Results from four base runs of the model are presented and compared with previously published results. Each run produces significantly different optimal paths, with one showing a higher net present value than any previously published. Sensitivity runs illustrate the impact of changes in interest rates, width of neighborhood storage class, and initial conditions. Dynamic programming offers promise for analyzing uneven-aged stand management problems.

scholarly journals Economic viability of cerrado vegetation management under conditions of risk

CERNE ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 141-149
Author(s):  
Simão Corrêa da Silva ◽  
Antonio Donizette de Oliveira ◽  
Luiz Moreira Coelho Junior ◽  
José Luiz Pereira de Rezende
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Planning Horizon ◽  
Vegetation Management ◽  
Minas Gerais ◽  
Wood Charcoal ◽  
Economic Viability ◽  
Charcoal Production ◽  
Cerrado Vegetation ◽  
Additional Information

Cerrado vegetation is Brazil's second largest biome, comprising about 388 municipalities in Minas Gerais state alone and serving as an important source of natural resources. A large share of the wood charcoal produced in Minas Gerais is sourced from Cerrado vegetation. The objective of this work is to assess the economic viability of Cerrado vegetation management for wood charcoal production, under conditions of risk. The study site is a fragment of Cerrado subjected to five levels of intervention as to basal area removal. For risk analysis, the Monte Carlo method was applied, using charcoal price, interest rate and land value as input variables, and using Net Present Value as output variable over an infinite planning horizon. It was concluded that introducing risk in the economic analysis of the various Cerrado management regimes helped provide additional information to that obtained by deterministic analysis, improving understanding and ensuring safety in decision-making about the economic viability of such regimes. For all treatments, the probability of VPL being negative increases with increasing cutting cycle lengths. For all treatments, the optimal cutting cycle is ten years. Treatments where a larger volume of wood was removed proved less prone to risks of economic inviability since they secure more revenue than treatments where less wood was removed.

scholarly journals ANALISA FINANSIAL PROYEK PEMBANGUNAN JALAN TOL AA DI JAWA TIMUR

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 40
Author(s):  
Adham Indra Kusuma, Marjono, Fauziah S.C.S Maisarah
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
Influential Factors ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Maintenance Cost ◽  
Cost Ratio ◽  
Toll Road ◽  
Investment Cost

One attempt to create a good transport system is the construction of new roads toll roads. A toll road construction soon to be implemented is AA segment a which is of  investment oriented and expected to give profits to the investors. According to the plan, the toll road is 40.5 km long development is divided into 4 sections. Data required to perform financial analysis is the cost of investment, operation and maintenance cost, traffic volume, and the toll rate plans. These data to find the values of the parameters used to calculate the financial analysis include the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), and Payback Period (PP). The financial analysis will use two funding alternatives, alternative I using 100% equity, alternative II using 30% equity and 70%  loan. The purpose of this study is to determine the results of the financial analysis of the parameter values of highway construction project feasibility and determine the most influential factors after a sensitivity analysis has been made. Based on the financial analysis the investment cost results in IDR 3,827,698,222,645. The financial analysis NPV parameters alternative I results in IDR 661,439,934,962 and alternative II in IDR 230,334,925,350 which means they are feasible because both NPVs are greater than 0; both the IRR of 14.18% for alternative I and 13.02% for alternative II are greater than Minimum Attractive Rate Of Return (MARR) value of 12.42%; so, they are feasible; the value of BCR of alternative I is of 1.13 and alternative II is of 1.04; so, they are feasible because the value of BCR is greater than 1. While the PP of alternative I in the period of 12.1 years and alternative II in the period of 13.5 years. The sensitivity analysis of alternatives I and II result in  the most influential alternative—when construction period experiences ≥ 3 years backwards.Keywords: investment cost, financial analysis, sensitivity analysis.

Effect of decision variable definition and data aggregation on a search process applied to a single-tree simulator

2001 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 1057-1066 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peder Wikström
Keyword(s):  
Tabu Search ◽  
Data Aggregation ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Planning Horizon ◽  
Solution Technique ◽  
Search Process ◽  
Decision Variable ◽  
Stand Management ◽  
Harvest Timing ◽  
Execution Times

This paper focuses on how computer execution times and net present value (NPV) are affected by different groupings of tree-selection harvest controls, different procedures to determine harvest timing, and tree data aggregation. The problems related to stand management are viewed as a hierarchy, where the main problem is determining harvest periods and the subordinate problem is determining what trees to cut in a given set of harvest periods. The solution technique is a derivative-free search process, and the objective is to maximize the NPV of harvest revenues for a stand over a given planning horizon. The tree-selection harvest controls are based on diameter and species groupings. The procedure to determine harvest timing is based on Tabu search and fixed cutting cycles, respectively. Sensitivity analysis is performed for a selection of stands in southern Sweden, where each stand is represented by a set of inventoried plots. Both even-aged and uneven-aged management are considered. Solutions improved with the number of decision variables. The Tabu search procedure proved very efficient at determining harvest periods for the even-aged problems. For the uneven-aged problems, fixed cutting cycles approximated the harvest timing problem, but at considerably shorter execution times. It is suggested that aggregated data be used for determining harvest timing, after which, using the original nonaggregated data, the tree-selection problem for a given set of harvest periods can be resolved.

scholarly journals VIABILIDADE ECONÔMICA DA PRODUÇÃO DE CARVÃO VEGETAL EM DOIS SISTEMAS PRODUTIVOS

FLORESTA ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 143 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aylson Costa Oliveira ◽  
Thiago Taglialegna Salles ◽  
Bárbara Luísa Corradi Pereira ◽  
Angélica De Cássia Oliveira Carneiro ◽  
Camila Soares Braga ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Analysis ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Planning Horizon ◽  
Economic Viability ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Charcoal Production ◽  
Average Annual Production ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Benefit Cost

O objetivo deste trabalho foi analisar a viabilidade econômica da produção de carvão vegetal em dois sistemas produtivos: oito fornos de superfície acoplados a uma fornalha para queima de gases e dez fornos do tipo “rabo-quente” sem sistema de queima de gases. Para análise econômica, definiu-se uma produção anual média igual a 1.571 metros cúbicos de carvão (mdc) e horizonte de planejamento de 12 anos, sendo propostos 2 cenários. No primeiro cenário, após a colheita da madeira, realiza-se o plantio de uma nova floresta, permanecendo o custo da madeira constante em todo o planejamento; no segundo cenário, após a colheita, considerou-se a condução da brotação, reduzindo os custos na 2ª rotação e consequentemente os custos da madeira. A análise econômica foi realizada através da determinação dos seguintes indicadores: Valor Presente Líquido (VPL), Valor Anual Equivalente (VAE), Razão Benefício/Custo (B/C) e Lucratividade. Os indicadores calculados demonstraram a viabilidade dos dois sistemas produtivos avaliados em ambos os cenários propostos, porém o sistema fornos-fornalha apresentou melhores valores para os indicadores. Conclui-se que a produção de carvão vegetal nos sistemas avaliados foram viáveis economicamente, com o sistema fornos-fornalha gerando maior lucro ao produtor de carvão.Palavras-chave: Fornos de alvenaria; análise determinística; valor presente líquido. Abstract Economic viability of charcoal production in two production systems. The objective of this study was to analyze the economic viability of charcoal production in two conversion technologies: eight surface kilns coupled to a furnace for burning gases (kilns-furnace system) and ten "rabo-quente" or traditional charcoal kilns without burning gases system. An average annual production of 1571 cubic meters of charcoal (mdc) was used to perform the economic analysis. A planning horizon of 12 years and two scenarios were proposed. In the first scenario, after harvesting the wood, the planting of a new forest was performed, and the cost of wood remained constant throughout the planning horizon. In the second scenario, after the harvest, the conduction of shooting was considered, which reduced costs in the second rotation and consequently the cost of wood. The economic analysis was performed by determining the following indicators: Net Present Value (NPV), Equivalent Annual Value (EAV) and Benefit - Cost Reason (B/C). Calculated indicators demonstrated the viability of producing charcoal in the two production systems in both scenarios proposed, but kilns-furnace system presented better values. As conclusion, production of charcoal in the evaluated systems were economically viable. Kilns-furnace system was able to generate more profit to charcoal producer.Keywords: Kilns; deterministic analysis; net present value.

scholarly journals Using Simple Marginal Analysis and Density Management Diagrams for Prescribing Density Management

2002 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 85-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas J. Dean ◽  
S.Joseph Chang
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Loblolly Pine ◽  
Site Occupancy ◽  
Basal Area ◽  
Planting Density ◽  
Land Value ◽  
Marginal Analysis ◽  
Rotation Length ◽  
Growing Stock

Abstract This article presents a procedure to produce management regimes that not only maximize land value but also reflect stand development with simple marginal analyses of the accumulation and control of growing stock. An upper limit of growing stock is determined by translating management objectives into a future desired structure, and with this value as a guide for thinning age, marginal analysis is used to determine the planting density and the residual basal area after thinning. The procedure is demonstrated for a hypothetical loblolly pine plantation growing on land with a site index of 65 ft at 25 yr. The effects of various interest rates for a fixed rotation length and various rotation lengths for a fixed interest rate on initial planting density and residual growing stock after low thinning are analyzed. Optimal planting density decreased with increasing interest rate and rotation length. Thinning ages increased as initial planting density decreased, which caused optimal residual growing stock to increase with increasing interest rate and rotation age. According to this study, maximum land value is achieved when the growing stock limits are set to approximately the lower limit of full-site occupancy and the threshold of self-thinning. In terms of relative density, the ideal limits in growing stock for maximizing land value identified in this study are 35 and 55% of maximum SDI. South. J. Appl. For. 26(2):85–92.

On the economics of optimal timber production in boreal Scots pine stands

2013 ◽  
Vol 43 (8) ◽  
pp. 719-730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olli Tahvonen ◽  
Sampo Pihlainen ◽  
Sami Niinimäki
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Scots Pine ◽  
Rotation Period ◽  
Stand Density ◽  
Optimization Methods ◽  
Growth Conditions ◽  
Maximum Sustainable Yield ◽  
Pattern Search ◽  
Stand Management ◽  
Volume Yield

This study analyzes the optimal management of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) stands by applying recent developments in numerical optimization methods and forest production ecology. Our approach integrates a process-based, stand-level growth model and a detailed economic description of stand management. The variables optimized include the initial stand density, the number, timing, type, and intensity of thinnings, and the rotation period. A generalized pattern search is used to maximize the present value of net timber revenue over an infinite time horizon. The model adopts quality pricing, which takes branch size and quality into account, to differentiate among five different timber assortments. The analysis also covers five different site types. The results demonstrate the necessity of optimizing all of the management variables simultaneously. Given a low interest rate, optimized thinning significantly increases the rotation period, volume yield, and economic outcome. At higher interest rates, optimal rotation may be shortest under the least fertile growth conditions. The inclusion of a detailed price structure reveals that previous results concerning sensitivity to timber price and the relationship between maximum sustainable yield and economic solutions do not hold true in models that provide a more realistic description of forest management.

scholarly journals Financial and risk analysis of African mahogany plantations in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Vol 42 (2) ◽  
pp. 148-158
Author(s):  
Andressa Ribeiro ◽  
Carolina Souza Jarochinski e Silva ◽  
Antonio Carlos Ferraz Filho ◽  
José Roberto Soares Scolforo
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Financial Analysis ◽  
Initial Density ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Financial Return ◽  
African Mahogany ◽  
Management Regimes ◽  
Wood Demand ◽  
Growth And Yield Modeling

ABSTRACT Wood demand is increasing in quality and quantity, and economic studies are fundamental to analyze the feasibility of forest projects. These researches are in line with management and silvicultural studies, highlighting growth and yield modeling. This paper proposes an economic evaluation of implementation of African mahogany stands in Brazil under different perspectives of forest management. Data are from plantations ranging from 1.1 to 15 years old in different Brazilian regions. Financial analysis was undertaken using Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and Equal Annual Equivalent (EAE) for a 20-year period considering three thinning management regimes (A - unthinned, B - one thinning at age 10 years remaining 150 trees ha-1 and C - two thinnings, first at age 8 remaining 150 trees ha-1 and second at age 15 years remaining 75 trees ha-1) considering an initial density of 278 trees ha-1. A Monte Carlo simulation was performed considering six risk variables. Results showed that the discount rate is the variable that most influences the viability of the project. All site indexes in all management regimes lead to a feasible financial return, with NPV values ranging from 25,053 to 125,780 Brazilian reais per hectare, being regimes B and C the best ones. The probability for an unfeasible investment is almost zero, highlighting African mahogany as a great forest investment opportunity, providing high interest rates values (14% to 25%), superior to most available market rates of return.

scholarly journals STUDI KELAYAKAN EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN UNDERPASS PADA SIMPANG JL. GATOT SUBROTO-JL. AHMAD YANI DI KOTA DENPASAR

1970 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lina Sarasdevi Santosa ◽  
P. Alit Suthanaya ◽  
I B. Rai Adnyana
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Economic Feasibility ◽  
City Government ◽  
Primary Data ◽  
Cost Ratio ◽  
Benefit Cost Ratio ◽  
Direct Benefits ◽  
The City

Abstract : Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) of Bali in 2013, the population density in the Metropolitan area SARBAGITA (Denpasar-Badung-Gianyar-Tabanan) was 1.057 inhabitants/km2 with an area of 1.753,63 km2 and population was 1.853.017 inhabitants. Availability of facilities and adequate transportation infrastructure is needed, but in fact the performance of roads in the city center has declined. It is characterized by an increase in travel delay problem. Traffic delay problems in the City of Denpasar commonly occur on the stretch of Gatot Subroto street. To minimize the existing problems, Denpasar City Government plans to develop an underpass at the intersection of Gatot Subroto street and Ahmad Yani street. The aim of this study was to analyze the direct benefits of underpass for road users, to analyze the costs necessary to realize and operate the underpass, and to analyze the economic feasibility of the underpass development investment. Based on primary data and secondary data were obtained from government agencies, the method of analysis in this study used the technique of Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). Economic analysis conducted in this study used three criteria (NPV, BCR and IRR) with three interest rates (12%, 15% and 18% per year) stating that the construction of an underpass was economically feasible. For example in the second scenario where the interest rate 15% gain on the analysis of value NPV, BCR and IRR respectively is Rp. 233.462.340.102,00; 1,948 and 30,81%. Suggestions can be submitted from this research is the need to contemplate the effect of changes in land use in areas close to the area around the underpass and needed further study that takes into account the needs of additional traffic lanes.

scholarly journals Investment Appraisal At Imperfect Capital Markets

2011 ◽  
Vol 6 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Schuster
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Time Value Of Money ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Investment Appraisal ◽  
Imperfect Capital Markets ◽  
Return Method ◽  
Value Of Money

Investment decisions are of vital importance to all companies. Thus, effective appraisal methods are most important tools to support the decision-making. Among the most popular methods are the Net Present Value Method, the Internal Rate of Return Method and the Annuity Method, which explicitly consider the time value of money and can be characterized by the assumption of a uniform rate and are connected with the assumption of a perfect capital market.Aiming at a decision-making process closer to real business life we describe an investment appraisal method that assumes different credit and debtor interest rates, i.e., that is usable in imperfect capital markets. We exemplify investment appraisal in this market form with a method which visualizes any financial implications in an environment with a high number of different credit and debt interest rates, borrowing lines and other restrictions. The usage of this method is shown at examples and the appraisal of single investment projects and the comparison of mutually exclusive projects are described.

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