scholarly journals Profitability of Banks in Lebanon: Some Theoretical and Empirical Results

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 233
Author(s):  
Samih Antoine Azar ◽  
Ali Bolbol ◽  
Alexandre Mouradian
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Fixed Effects ◽  
Ad Hoc ◽  
Estimation Procedure ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Fixed Effects Model ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate

<p>The paper, instead of relying on ad hoc measures, derives a simple theoretical model for the income of a commercial bank. This model identifies eight internal exogenous factors to the profitability of these banks. A total panel of 39 banks over the twelve-year period 2003-2014 is studied. The dependent variable is taken to be the return on average total assets (ROAA). The estimation procedure is through panel least squares.  Fixed effects and random effects are considered. The results support the cross section fixed effects model, which brings to light the heterogeneity of banks in Lebanon. Four out of the eight factors are found to be statistically highly significant, explaining about 50% of the variation in ROAA. These are: the interest rate spread, the capital adequacy ratio, the cost to income ratio, and the ratio of non-interest income to total assets. Dynamics are included in the model by adding to the regressors the first lag of the dependent variable. This makes for different short run and long run impacts, with the latter found to be higher than the former as economic theory postulates. Among other recommendations banks are advised to diversify their income towards more wealth management and investment banking, to pay particular attention to their traditional source of income, which is the interest rate spread between loans and deposits, and to manage carefully their cost structure.</p>

scholarly journals INFLASI DARI SUDUT PANDANG MONETER DAN FISKAL (STUDI KASUS SUMATERA BARAT)

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Zul Azhar ◽  
Alpon Satrianto ◽  
Nofitasari Nofitasari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of money supply M2, interest rate, government spending and local tax on the inflation in West Sumatera. This type of research is descriptive research and secondary datain the form of time-series from quartely 1 2007 to 2017 quartely 4 using the method of Autoregresive Distributed Lag analysis. The results of this study indicate that money supply in the long run have a significant and positive effect on inflation West Sumatera. In the short run  and long run the interest rate has a significant and positive effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Government spending in the Long run has a significant and negative effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Based on the result of this study can be concluded that there is inflation in West Sumatera is monetery of phenomenon in the long run. 

scholarly journals The Interest Rate, Learning, and Inventory Investment

2004 ◽  
Vol 94 (5) ◽  
pp. 1303-1327 ◽  
Author(s):  
Louis J Maccini ◽  
Bartholomew J Moore ◽  
Huntley Schaller
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Regime Switching ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The Real ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inventory Investment ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper presents a model that provides an explanation, based on regime switching in the real interest rate and learning, of why tests based on stock-adjustment models, Euler equations, or decision rules—which emphasize short-run fluctuations in inventories and the interest rate—are unlikely to uncover a negative relationship between inventories and the real interest rate. The model, however, predicts that inventories will respond to long-run movements, that is, to regime shifts in the real interest rate. Tests emphasizing cointegration techniques confirm this prediction and show a significant long-run relationship between inventories and the real interest rate.

scholarly journals Investigating the Causal Linkages among Inflation, Interest Rate, and Economic Growth in Pakistan under the Influence of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Wavelet Transformation Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 277
Author(s):  
Muhammad Azmat Hayat ◽  
Huma Ghulam ◽  
Maryam Batool ◽  
Muhammad Zahid Naeem ◽  
Abdullah Ejaz ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Wavelet Transformation ◽  
Multi Scale ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Cross Wavelet

This research is the earliest attempt to understand the impact of inflation and the interest rate on output growth in the context of Pakistan using the wavelet transformation approach. For this study, we used monthly data on inflation, the interest rate, and industrial production from January 1991 to May 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economies around the world, especially in view of the measures taken by governmental authorities regarding enforced lockdowns and social distancing. Traditional studies empirically explored the relationship between these important macroeconomic variables only for the short run and long run. Firstly, we employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration test and two causality tests (Granger causality and Toda–Yamamoto) to check the cointegration properties and causal relationship among these variables, respectively. After confirming the long-run causality from the ARDL bound test, we decomposed the time series of growth, inflation, and the interest rate into different time scales using wavelet analysis which allows us to study the relationship among variables for the very short run, medium run, long run, and very long run. The continuous wavelet transform (CWT), the cross-wavelet transform (XWT), cross-wavelet coherence (WTC), and multi-scale Granger causality tests were used to investigate the co-movement and nature of the causality between inflation and growth and the interest rate and growth. The results of the wavelet and multi-scale Granger causality tests show that the causal relationship between these variables is not the same across all time horizons; rather, it is unidirectional in the short-run and medium-run but bi-directional in the long-run. Therefore, this study suggests that the central bank should try to maintain inflation and the interest rate at a low level in the short run and medium run instead of putting too much pressure on these variables in the long-run.

scholarly journals Determinants of credit risk of Indonesian Sharīʿah rural banks

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Unggul Priyadi ◽  
Kurnia Dwi Sari Utami ◽  
Rifqi Muhammad ◽  
Peni Nugraheni
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Credit Risk ◽  
Capital Adequacy ◽  
Internal Variables ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
External Variables ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Medium Businesses

Purpose This study aims to examine the influence of internal and external factors on the credit risk (represented by nonperforming financing [NPF]) of Indonesian Sharīʿah rural banks (SRBs) – a type of Islamic bank that provides Islamic financial services especially to small and medium businesses in Indonesia. Internal variables comprise capital adequacy ratio (CAR), financing to deposit ratio (FDR), return on assets (ROA), operating expense ratio (OER), financing to value (FTV) and profit and loss sharing (PLS) financing ratio. External variables comprise inflation, economic growth and interest rate. Design/methodology/approach The study uses the annual reports of SRBs in Indonesia as secondary data for the years 2010–2019. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) is used as the analysis method to examine the short-run and long-run relationships between the variables. Findings The findings indicate that four variables experienced a lag in the short run, namely, NPF, inflation, CAR and PLS, with different results recorded for each of the variables. Furthermore, the long-run results show that CAR and ROA influence the NPF of SRBs positively, whereas inflation and PLS have a negative influence on NPF. The rest of the variables – notably economic growth, interest rate, FDR, FTV and OER – do not have an influence on NPF in SRBs. Research limitations/implications The level of NPF in SRBs exceeds the provision of the Central Bank of Indonesia. The findings are expected to have implications for SRBs and the regulator to consider and to manage the factors related to NPF properly due to the important role of SRBs in small and medium businesses’ development. Originality/value This study measures the determinants of NPF using internal and external variables, including the addition of a dummy variable, notably FTV. This study also uses ARDL to analyze the financial policies involving data at the present time and lagged time.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of Fiscal Sustainability and Optimal Level of Debt in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 282-292
Author(s):  
Sehrish Haleem ◽  
Awais Khan ◽  
Malik Adeel Ur Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Optimal Level ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate

Through the current study it’s been tried to discuss that how fiscal sustainability is impacted by the debt which is taken by countries in order to push their economy towards prosperity and growth in Pakistan. Because the economy is considering vulnerable in terms of Public debt due to huge fiscal deficit in the economy. The ARDL approach is being applied by taking GDP as dependent variable while public debt, total revenues, government expenditures and interest rate are been taken as independent variable. The findings of the study suggested that there is strong and significant relationship exist between focused variables. Public debt is negatively associated with GDP in both short run and long run, while government expenditure give positive and significant relationship with GDP and interestingly total revenue give negative significant relationship in long run that supported the argument that the high revenues in developing nations inversely affects the investment that is pillar of GDP, so it adversely affected. The interest rate is positively significant in long run but in short run its negatively related with GDP because it affects cost of capital. The findings of study attract the attention of policy makers that we need either debt reduction strategies or either to minimize the gap between public revenues and public expenditures to promote sustain economic growth in the economy.

scholarly journals An Investigation into the Interest Elasticity of Demand for Money in Developing Countries: A Panel Data Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 69 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felix S. Nyumuah
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Equatorial Guinea ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Elasticity Of Demand ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate

The issue as to whether the interest rate influences the demand for money in developing countries is still controversial. The aim of this study is to attempt to resolve this controversy. The study uses panel data from eight African countries to look at the interest elasticity of demand for money in developing countries. The countries used in the study are Angola (ANG), Equatorial Guinea (EQG), Gambia (GMB), Guinea-Bissau (GBS), Kenya (KNY), Mali (MLI), Nigeria (NGR) and Uganda (UGD). Overall, the study finds the interest rate to be inelastic in the short run but elastic in the long run. This finding suggests that monetary policy is ineffective in developing countries in the long run.

scholarly journals Dollarization of deposits in the short and long run: Evidence from CESE countries

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
Branko Urosevic ◽  
Ivana Rajkovic
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Minimum Variance ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Standard Tool ◽  
Minimum Variance Portfolio ◽  
Financial Dollarization ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Cointegration Relationship

In this paper, we study the drivers of permanent and transitory deposit dollarization for a sample of CESE countries using panel cointegration techniques. The results suggest that a positive cointegration relationship exists between permanent dollarization and Minimum Variance Portfolio (MVP) share. This provides an additional empirical validation of the MVP method as the standard tool for analyzing financial dollarization. In the long run, agents make savings decisions based on the relative volatilities of inflation and nominal depreciation rates and do not take into account the interest rate spread. Somewhat different factors affect dollarization in the short rather than in the long run. Namely, apart from MVP share, transitory deposit dollarization is driven, also, by the real interest rate spread. Our results suggest that affecting dollarization through changes in the interest rate spread may have a short term impact. In the long run, however, for dedollarization it is critical to reduce the volatility of inflation compared to the volatility of exchange rate depreciation.

scholarly journals Determination of Long and Short Run Demand for Money in the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) Countries: A Panel Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 79-97
Author(s):  
Agya Atabani Adi ◽  
Joshua Sunday Riti
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Capital Mobility ◽  
Currency Substitution ◽  
Demand For Money ◽  
Interest Rate Spread ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate

The paper examines demand for real money balances in six West Africa countries, over the 1985-2014 periods using panel Cointegration technique. The result shows that long run money demand is positively related to real income, inflation rate and inversely related to interest rate spread, real effective exchange rate and US real interest rate. Long run income elasticity is greater than unity and less than unity in short run. All variables are significant except effective exchange rate, thus; both currency substitution and capital mobility hypotheses hold in the long run while capital mobility holds only in the short run. We recommend that monetary aggregate should growth slower than economic growth to maintain price stability, countries should try to maintained stable exchange rate and ensured market driven interest rate policy. Keyword: Demand for Money; Interest Rate Spread; Capital Mobility and Currency Substitution, Panel Analysis.JEL CODE: E41, E52, C33, O11.

Effects of Government Expenditure on Private Investment in Nigerian Economy (1980–2016)

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 147-156
Author(s):  
Taiwo Akinlo ◽  
Olusola Joel Oyeleke
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Relationship

This study examined the effect of government expenditure on private investment in Nigeria during the period 1980–2016. The error correction model analysis was used in the study to analyze the relationship between the two variables. The study found that there is a long-run relationship among the variables and that the interest rate and inflation have negative but significant impact on private investment in the long run. On the other hand, government expenditure has positive but insignificant impact on private investment in the long run. In the short run, government expenditure and interest rate have a significant positive impact on private investment in Nigeria, while GDP per capita and inflation negatively impact private investment. The study concluded that there is the need for the government to increase its expenditure particularly on the provision of more infrastructural facilities as this will attract more investment from within and outside the country.

scholarly journals Money Supply and Economic Activities in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 22-30
Author(s):  
Muhamad Lokman Hakimi Suid
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Policy Tool ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Keynesian Economic ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study examined how economic activities affect the direction of money supply in Malaysia. The overnight policy rate is the interest rate set by Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) as its monetary policy tool. Based on the Keynesian Economic Theory, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was applied to analyse how the industrial production index, interest rate and consumer price index influenced money supply. The findings of this study supported the notion that economic growth significantly affected the money supply in the short run. There was no evidence of such a relationship in the long run. Maintaining a stable money supply is vital to limit adverse variations in economic activity. A stable money supply allows Malaysia to respond effectively during difficult times, especially the current covid19 pandemic.

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