scholarly journals Impact of Budget Deficit on Private Consumption inWAEMU Countries: Evidence from Pooled Mean Group Estimation

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaya Keho
Keyword(s):  
Private Consumption ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically investigates the impact of budget deficit on private consumption in seven member countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU), namely Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Niger, Senegal and Togo. It applies the pooled mean group estimation method to annual data covering the period 1970 to 2013. The results show that budget deficit and per capita GDP have long run positive effects on household consumption whereas inflation rate is detrimental to private consumption. This suggests that private consumption cannot be held responsible for any crowding-out effects that budget deficit might have on long run aggregate demand and economic growth in WAEMU countries. Therefore, restricting the size of budget deficits is costly for the development of WAEMU countries.

scholarly journals The Impact Of Budget Deficits On Macro-Economic Variables In The Nigerian Economy (1981 – 2012)

2014 ◽  
Vol 2 (11) ◽  
pp. 164-183
Author(s):  
B.O Osuka ◽  
Achinihu Joy Chioma
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Economic Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study examined the impact of budget deficits on macro-economic variables in the Nigerian economy for theperiod 1981-2012. This study sought to find out if there is a long-run relationship between budget deficits and other macro-economic variables in Nigeria. The study used the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) methods for finding out the presence of unit root in all variables and found that they are stationary at first differencing; they are 1(1). We also used Johansen Cointegration test to check for the cointegration of the variables and found that the variables in the study are all cointegrated of order one showing the presence of long-run relationship between budget deficits and our selected macro-economic variables ( GDP, interest rate, nominal exchange rate and inflation rate). The Granger Causality results reveal that there is a uni-directional Granger-causality between Budget deficits and GDP with GDP granger causing budget deficit. However, the test for causality showed that there exists no causality between deficits and interest rate, budget deficits and inflation and budget deficit and nominal exchange rate. We thereby concluded that budget deficits exert significant impact on the macro-economic performance of the Nigerian economy. The study recommend that since budget deficits could crowd-in investment through its reducing effects in interest rate, but emphasis should be placed on capital goods expenditure to make it have positive effect on GDP and thereby contribute to economic growth and development.

scholarly journals Budget Deficit and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: A PMG Approach

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Gbenga Oladapo Awolaja ◽  
Ikponmwosa Osagie Esefo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Sub Saharan

The relationship between budget deficit and economic growth remains one of the widely debated topics among policy makers and economists in both developed and developing countries of the world. This paper empirically investigated the long run and short run relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa countries from 1991 to 2018 using Panel data for twenty (20) sub-Saharan Africa Countries. The estimation technique employed in the study was the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) estimation method and the regression results revealed that in the long run, budget deficit has a negative and significant relationship with economic growth whereas in the short run, it has a positive and significant relationship with economic growth. The study concluded that government should reduce the overall recurrent expenditure as it will help to mitigate the problem of budget deficit that leads to debt accumulation in sub-Saharan Africa countries and increase expenditure on developmental projects.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

Determinants of Budget Deficit in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Maimuna M Shehu ◽  
Ibrahim M Adamu
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Cointegrating Vector ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test ◽  
The Government ◽  
One Year ◽  
High Level

This paper investigates the factors governing the determination of budget deficit in Nigeria from 1981q1 through 2016q4. Our methodology is based on Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction model (VECM) approach. The result from the Johansen cointegration test suggests one cointegrating vector, which indicates the existence of a long run cointegrating relationship. Evidence from the long run and short run parameters suggest that exchange rate, interest rate and one year lag of budget deficit are the major determinants of budget deficit. Therefore, to achieve a realistic fiscal surplus, the government should determine a high level of accountability in its fiscal operations. In addition, any fiscal surplus should be channeled into productive investments to diversify the economy and reduce the likelihood of potential budget deficits.

scholarly journals HIGHER EDUCATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH A CASE STUDY OF PAKISTAN

2010 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tariq Mahmood
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Public Expenditures ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Unequal Distribution ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Education And Economic Growth

This paper highlights the role of higher education for the economic growth inPakistan. We explore the impact of increase in enrolment at tertiary level on thegrowth rate of income per worker. Estimating a growth model developed byMankiv et. al. (1992), using the annual data of Pakistan, we find a robustrelationship between higher education and economic growth in the long run. Themodel has also shown that investment in fixed capital has positive impact oneconomic uplift. Applying Johansen’s cointegration test, we show that the longrun elasticity of income with respect to capital stock is different from its share inGDP, and increase in the enrolment per unit of effective worker helps inbolstering economic growth. But, like earlier literature we also find statisticallyinsignificant relationship between higher education and GDP per worker. Thereare some fundamental reasons concerning to the ambiguous impact of investingin human capital on economic growth, particularly in the short run in case ofPakistan. First, the sharp increase in enrollment, recently, has been damaging thequality of education. Second, the unequal distribution of educational services hasheld back the efficiency of public expenditures, particularly before the reformsundertaken by higher education commission. Third, the low private return ofeducation has limited the demand for higher education in Pakistan for almost fiftyyears.

scholarly journals Inflationary Impact of Funding Options for Budget Deficits in Nigeria

2021 ◽  
pp. 41-51
Author(s):  
Apinran Martins ◽  
Ogiji Patrick ◽  
Laniyan Chioma ◽  
Usman Nuruddeen
Keyword(s):  
Federal Government ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Optimal Choice ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Government Bonds ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Government Deficits ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the inflationary impact of the various financing options for the federal government budget deficit which has accumulated overtime. Using Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology and quarterly data over the period 2000Q1 to 2017Q2, the study found significant relationship between inflation and the current financing options of the Government. Overall, the result of our ARDL model affirm that the impact of fiscal spending in Nigeria on inflation is captured more in the short-run since none of the variables is significant in the long-run. In addition, the use of Banking System Financing to fund government deficits has better potentials as the optimal choice because its impact on inflation is insignificant. Federal Government Bonds as a tool for financing budget deficits is also considered an optimal choice because though it causes inflation to rise by the second quarter, but its impact on inflation is expected to fizzle out in the long-run. Ways and Means Advances on the other hand, was shown to have the highest inflationary impact and as such, its use as a tool for financing government deficit should be discouraged. We, therefore, recommend a couple of appropriate policy options for financing budget deficits in Nigeria namely monetary financing and the issuance of federal government bonds. On the policy side, more efficient public expenditure management. Capital market, co-financing arrangements with pension funds and issuance of project-tied bonds, would be beneficial.

scholarly journals Do Budget Deficit Crowds out Private Investment: A Case of Tanzanian Economy

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-18
Author(s):  
Samwel Mwigeka
Keyword(s):  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Data Generation ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Theoretical Predictions ◽  
High Government ◽  
Johansen Cointegration Test

The existing high budget deficit in Tanzanian economy has created an immense concern among economic policy analysts. The study investigates whether budget deficits crowd out or crowd in private investment in Tanzania, using annual data covering the period from 1970 to 2012.  Using the Johansen cointegration test suggests there is at least one cointegration vector among these variables. Under such circumstances, we employed a vector error correction model (VEC), since it offers more and better information compared to other data generation processes. The results point to a close long–term relationship between private investment, and other variables included in the study. Results suggest that budget deficits significantly crowds out private investment. These results substantiate the theoretical predictions and are also supported by previous studies. The paper recommends that government should redirect it fiscal policy that would favor the private investor by discouraging high government expenditure and maintaining a low fiscal deficit. Also, to avoid crowding out effect, capital market should be used to finance budget deficit. JEL Classifications Code: H6

scholarly journals Budget Deficits and Economic Growth: A Vector Error Correction Modelling of South Africa

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 215-223
Author(s):  
Kagiso Molefe ◽  
Andrew Maredza
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run

The primary motivation behind this study was to explore the consequential effects of budget deficit on South Africa`s economic growth. Six variables were used, namely: real GDP, budget deficit, real interest rate, labour, gross fixed capital formation and unemployment. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was used to estimate the long-run equation and also measure the correction from disequilibrium of preceding periods. Using annual time series data spanning the period 1985 to 2015, empirical evidence from the study revealed that budget deficits and economic growth are inversely related. It was therefore concluded that high levels of budget deficit in South Africa have detrimental effects on the growth of the economy. The estimate of the speed of adjustment coefficient found in this study revealed that about 29 per cent of the variation in GDP from its equilibrium level is corrected within one year. The results obtained in this study are favourably similar to those in the literature and are also sustained by previous studies.

scholarly journals Foreign Direct Investment and Trade Components in Context of Pakistan

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (34) ◽  
pp. 384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Akram Gilal ◽  
Khadim Hussain ◽  
Muhammad Ajmair ◽  
Sabahat Akram
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Investment Liberalization ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Objective of this paper was to evaluate the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on trade components (exports and imports) of Pakistan using annual data from 1975 to 2013. Engle and Granger two step cointegration method was used for conducting the analysis. This method was adopted because all the variables of interest were non stationary in level and stationary at first difference. Results provide evidence of long run cointegrating relationship as well as short run relationship between FDI and trade components. A rise in FDI causes both exports and imports to increase. Based on these empirical findings, we strongly recommend Government of Pakistan to focus on the strategy of investment liberalization as well as trade openness.

scholarly journals Fiscal and Monetary Policy of Economic Development

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 42
Author(s):  
Igor Chugunov ◽  
Mykola Pasichnyi ◽  
Valeriy Koroviy ◽  
Tetiana Kaneva ◽  
Andriy Nikitishin
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Functional Model ◽  
Policy Coordination ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fiscal And Monetary Policy

Fiscal and monetary policy coordination should focus on increasing public welfare and maintaining long-term macroeconomic stability. This article aims to enhance the theoretical and methodological basis of fiscal and monetary policy formation and determine the priority areas for improving their coordination to ensure sustainable economic development. We developed an institutional approach to study the fiscal-monetary mix. It is advisable to create favorable monetary conditions for fiscal measures and form a balanced budget for monetary regulation. The authors proposed the structural-functional model that highlights both fiscal and monetary policies’ impact on aggregate demand. The results showed no positive effects of general government expenditures on the GDP per capita growth in 19 emerging economies from 1995 to 2018. The influence of public spending on economic growth depends on institutions’ quality, the composition of expenditures, and fiscal architecture. The expediency of increasing the share of productive expenditures that positively affect stimulating the economy is substantiated. In the long-run, monetary policy should ensure a comprehensive combination of inflation targeting conditions, the adaptive use of tools to achieve intermediate and final targets.

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