scholarly journals Determinants of Current Account Balance in Six ASEAN Countries: A Panel Analysis Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 129
Author(s):  
Soo Xin Lin ◽  
Jerome Kueh
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Age Dependency Ratio

This paper aims to examine the potential determinants of current account balance, which has been an interesting research topic in analysis over the decade. The relationship between current account balance and several different variables, such as fiscal balance, public debt, real GDP, and age dependency ratio for old and young, are examined. In this paper, the selected time period is from 1990 to 2016, in order to include the financial crisis period in six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam). To this end, the research is based on the estimation of panel unit root, panel cointegration, panel Vector Error-Correction Model (VECM) and panel Granger causality. The findings show that all variables are cointegrated in the long-run and there are also unidirectional and bidirectional causal relationships in the short-run.

scholarly journals PENGARUH STRUKTUR KEPEMILIKAN DAN STRUKTUR MODAL TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Rani Raharjanti ◽  
Nur Setyowati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Managerial Ownership ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equity Ratio

This paper aims to investigate the short and long run behavior of ownership structure, capital structure and Indonesian Stock Price over the period from 2007 to 2016. To capture the long run relationships, we used the panel cointegration by Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004), while the short run relationship are measured by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The main findings are as follows. First, the result of most results of Pedroni’s panel cointegration tests, suggest the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. In consequence, this result suggests that there is a cointegration between stock price, managerial ownership, institutional ownership, public ownership, debt to equity ratio and earnings per share. Second, the results of VECM indicate that in the short run, only managerial ownership that will influence the stock price.

Long-run Association Between Bank Credit and Output: A Study on Districts’ Panel of West Bengal, India

2020 ◽  
pp. 097215092091844
Author(s):  
Ramesh Chandra Das ◽  
Soniya Chavan
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
West Bengal ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Bank Credit ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Data Framework ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita

In a globalized world, the financial sectors and the real sectors are interlinked. Although it is a common phenomenon to a developed economy in its national as well as provincial levels, it has hardly been tested for the low-income countries like India. It is further difficult to have such linkage effects at the provinces and district levels. This article aims to examine whether per capita commercial bank credit and per capita net district domestic product for the districts of West Bengal state in India have long-run associations for the period 1993–2014 in a panel data framework. Using the panel cointegration and Vector error correction mechanism (VECM) technique, the study reveals that both the financial and real sector indicators are cointegrated and the short-run errors are corrected significantly to establish that there is bilateral causality between credit and output in both long run and short run.

scholarly journals Effects of Public Expenditure on Gross Domestic Product in Zambia from 1980-2017: An ARDL Methodology Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2(J)) ◽  
pp. 103-111
Author(s):  
Mubanga Mpundu ◽  
Jane Mwafulirwa ◽  
Mutinta Chaampita ◽  
Notulu Salwindi
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Public Expenditure ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The paper explored the fundamental changes in public expenditure and the resulting effect on the gross domestic product using an ARDL approach for time series data over the period 1980-2017. The control variables included foreign direct investment and current account balance. The objective was to determine changes which had occurred with regard to the performance of GDP since 1980. A quantitative method approach was used to ascertain the relationship between the variables and analysed using the E-views 9 software. Cointegration results showed a long run relationship between GDP and government expenditure. In this regard, changes in government expenditure have a strong converse effect on GDP. Government expenditure, which has increased significantly in the past decade, is seen to have had negative effects both in the short run and long run. Contrary to theory, increased government expenditure may not be ideal for growing the Zambian economy. This could be due to the allocation of this public expenditure, i.e. the 2018 Budget had 24% of the expenditure directed to economic activities. Thus it is recommended that government practice increased fiscal discipline or reallocated resources as their expansionary fiscal policies are not yielding the intended results. Additionally, policies to promote private investment may be more beneficial for the Zambian economy. On the other hand, increased investment is also recommended with government encouraging more investment promoting policies as FDI is observed to have a positive impact in the short run though insignificant in the long run. These should ensure more investors are encouraged to stay longer and the impacts/externalities of their investments be accrued to the nationals to ensure long run benefits. The Zambian government should also ensure that the country diversifies its export base and enhances its external debt management to ensure positive and consistent impact of Current Account Balance in the long run.

Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Offs In ASEAN-10

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 241-256
Author(s):  
Nurul Lisani ◽  
Raja Masbar ◽  
Vivi Silvia
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Panel Cointegration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Variance Decompositions

This study empirically explores the nature of inflation-unemployment dynamic causal relationships both in the short and long-run in the ASEAN-10 over the 1989-2018 period. Based on the panel cointegration test, the study documented a long-run equilibrium between inflation and unemployment. Using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) analysis, the study found an insignificant inflation-unemployment relationship in the short-run. However, in the long-run, inflation is found to affect the unemployment rate positively. Our results from the Variance Decompositions (VDCs) analysis also supported these findings, where the unemployment responded at the more significant percentage to shocks in inflation compared to the response of inflation to shocks in unemployment. These findings only supported the relevance of the Phillips curve theory in the long-run. Overall, these findings imply that although inflation targeting policy is not relevant to the short-run, it becomes crucial and effective to reduce the unemployment rate in ASEAN-10 in the long-run.JEL Classifications: E52, E58, J64 How to Cite:Lisani, N., Masbar, R., & Silvia, V. (2020). Inflation-Unemployment Trade-Offs In Asean-10. Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi, 9(2), 241-256. https://doi.org/10.15408/sjie.v9i2.16346.

scholarly journals PENGARUH STRUKTUR KEPEMILIKAN DAN STRUKTUR MODAL TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Rani Raharjanti ◽  
Nur Setyowati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Managerial Ownership ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equity Ratio

This paper aims to investigate the short and long run behavior of ownership structure, capital structure and Indonesian Stock Price over the period from 2007 to 2016. To capture the long run relationships, we used the panel cointegration by Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004), while the short run relationship are measured by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The main findings are as follows. First, the result of most results of Pedroni’s panel cointegration tests, suggest the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. In consequence, this result suggests that there is a cointegration between stock price, managerial ownership, institutional ownership, public ownership, debt to equity ratio and earnings per share. Second, the results of VECM indicate that in the short run, only managerial ownership that will influence the stock price.

Re-examining public debt and current account dynamics: SVAR evidence from Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wondemhunegn Ezezew Melesse
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Public Investment ◽  
Government Debt ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Investment Efficiency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Current Account Dynamics ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Short Run

PurposePublic debt management is now an integral part of overall macroeconomic management in many developing and emerging market economies. Preventing unsustainable debt accumulation and maintaining healthy fiscal profile begins with understanding its key drivers both in the short and in the long run. The purpose of this paper is to analyze public debt and current account dynamics in Ethiopia.Design/methodology/approachThis study applies structural vector auto-regressive (SVAR) model on annual time series data to study general government debt and current account dynamics in Ethiopia for the period 1980–2018.FindingsBoth the impulse response and forecast error variance decomposition results confirm that fiscal balance exerts the strongest influence on both government debt and current account balance in the short run. In addition, own shock as well as shocks stemming from gross fixed capital formation and growth have significant effects on general government debt. The findings were robust to alternative data transformation, differing Choleski ordering of the model variables, and inclusion of exogenous deterministic terms that capture changes in the political landscape.Practical implicationsThe most important implication is that since fiscal balance is the strongest determinant of both public debt and current account balance, public investment efficiency is relevant here than anywhere else in the national economy. A recent study by Barhoumi et al. (2018) found that the sub-Saharan region lags behind its peers in terms of public sector investment efficiency with inefficiency gap of as large as 54% depending on the indicator variable for public investment output. Improving public investment spending efficiency would reduce government debt by enhancing productivity and growth – which has significant negative effect on public debt.Originality/valueFirst, the few studies conducted on Ethiopia are dominated by single equation specifications and do not account for the possibility of endogenous feedback effects among the model variables. Second, still equally important is the role of rising gross fixed capital formation in Ethiopia, which increased from about 13% (relative to GDP) in the 1980s to about 35% in the 2010s. Ignoring this variable amounts to a major model misspecification when analyzing short-run macro dynamics in low-income economies. Finally, the paper complements existing limited studies on Ethiopia by comparing the strength of shock propagation mechanisms using alternative data transformation techniques.

scholarly journals International Logistics and Cross-Border E-Commerce Trade: Who Matters Whom?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 1745
Author(s):  
Yugang He ◽  
Renhong Wu ◽  
Yong-Jae Choi
Keyword(s):  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run

Unlike previous papers on international logistics and cross-border e-commerce trade, this paper sets Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries as an example to explore the dynamic interaction between international logistics and cross-border e-commerce trade. The panel data for the period 2000–2018 will be employed to perform an empirical analysis via a host of econometric techniques, such as panel unit root tests, panel cointegration tests, panel causality tests and the panel vector error correction model. Incorporating with other control variables, we find that there is a long-term relationship between international logistics and cross-border e-commerce trade. Specifically speaking, in the long-run, international logistics has a positive and significant effect on cross-border e-commerce trade. However, in the short-run, international logistics has a negative and significant effect on cross-border e-commerce trade. Furthermore, the results suggest that deviation from a cointegration system of cross-border e-commerce trade and international logistics will lead to the cross-border e-commerce trade and international logistics changing within the range of approximately 2.2% to 47.2% in the next period. Therefore, referring to these findings, each OECD country’s government should take up corresponding policies to ensure the sustainable development of both international logistics and cross-border e-commerce trade.

scholarly journals From Academic Publications and Patents to the Technological Development of the Economy: Short and Long Run Causalities

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 74
Author(s):  
Marta Orviská ◽  
Ján Huňady ◽  
Peter Pisár ◽  
John Hudson
Keyword(s):  
Technological Development ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Basic Research ◽  
High Technology ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Academic Publications ◽  
Short Run

<p><strong>Purpose:</strong> The paper examines the potential effects of academic publications on patenting and the share of high technology exports. We test the short-run and the long-run causalities among high technology exports, the number of academic publications and the number of patents in three separate models.</p><p><strong>Methodology/Approach:</strong> Our sample consists of panel data for 61 countries and 20 years. The panel Granger causality and vector error correction model have been used in order to capture the short-run causalities. Furthermore, panel cointegration regressions have been applied to test for long-run causalities.</p><p><strong>Findings:</strong> Our results strongly suggest that there is a positive long-run effect of academic publications on both patenting and the share of high technology exports. This suggests that the outcomes of basic science in the form publications strongly support technological development, and thus emphasises the importance of basic research. In addition the effect of patents on high technology exports is mostly insignificant when controlling for academic publications and GDP.</p><p><strong>Research Limitation/implication:</strong> First, the variables used in the analysis are only proxies. The scope of the data has been significantly limited by the data availability. This leads also to limited the number of control variables.</p><p><strong>Originality/Value of paper: </strong>There are still only a very limited number of studies testing the effect of academic outcomes on the technological development of the economy. Our research brings new empirical insights into this problem.</p>

Are IMF Stabilization Programs in the European Union Disastrous?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Pantelis C. Kostis
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Binary Logistic Model

This chapter examines the effectiveness of Stabilizing Programs in the European Union for the time period from the Maastricht Treaty in 1993 to 2013 (the recent bailouts of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal). A binary logistic model is used which specifies binomial as the distribution and logit as the link function, using an unbalanced panel of annual data. Two main conclusions emerge: a) the probabilities of an economic recession, a high debt to GDP ratio, and a high current account deficit to GDP ratio, are greater when a Stabilization Program is adopted than without one, and b) a Stabilization Program has a negative short-run effect on the GDP growth rate, as well as negative long-run effects (8 years after the adoption) on the debt to GDP ratio and the current account deficit to GDP ratio.

scholarly journals CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, INFLATION, INDUSTRY AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT IN JORDAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 45-56
Author(s):  
Mohammad ALAWIN ◽  
Mohammad OQAILY
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Economic Model ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Domestic Inflation

In order to achieve that goal, the study presents theoretical and econometricframework for an economic model that includes the determinants of inflation wherecurrent account deficit is one of them. The study finds out that the increase in currentaccount deficit affects domestic inflation negatively in the long run. This result would beattributed to the fact that current account deficit absorbs big part of the excess in thedomestic demand, in addition to the long run flexibility of the economy to producesubstitutes for imported goods. However, in the short run, it was found that currentaccount deficit affects domestic inflation positively. It was found that for this period thereis no enough flexibility for the Jordanian economy to produce enough goods to substituteimports, which leads to inflation.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document