scholarly journals Building State-Level Business Cycle Tracer Tools: Evidence from a Large Emerging Economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 14
Author(s):  
Jéfferson A. Colombo ◽  
Renan X. Cortes ◽  
Fernando I. L. Cruz ◽  
Luis H. Z. Paese
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
State Level ◽  
Seasonal Adjustment ◽  
Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽  
Current State ◽  
Cross Correlation Analysis ◽  
Reliable Representation ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Socioeconomic Data

Tracing business cycle movements in a timely way can help government, firms, and consumers to allocate resources efficiently in the economy. However, analytical systems designed to monitor the business cycles are hard to find, especially in state-level economies and in emerging markets. In this paper, we present the methodology of construction of the Business Cycle Tracer of the State of Rio Grande do Sul – Brazil (BCT-RS), a tool that focuses on the visualization of a key subset of financial and socioeconomic data and allows users to analyze the interrelationships and the co-movements of those variables over time. Specifically, we discuss our methodological procedure to select leading, coincident and lagging indicators, including seasonal adjustment, cycle extraction, cross-correlation analysis and detection of turning points. We also describe the three functionalities of the BCT-RS -- time series, table of variations and macroeconomic dynamics. Overall, our proposed system offers a reliable representation of the current state of the business cycle before information about GDP becomes available. Importantly, our framework is generalizable to other states, especially in developing economies.

scholarly journals Labor Market Indicator for Colombia

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia ◽  
Manuel Dario Hernandez-Bejarano ◽  
Mario A. Ramos-Veloza
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Labor Market ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Growth Cycle ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Market Indicator

Although the unemployment rate is traditionally used to diagnose the current state of the labor market, this indicator does not reflect the existence of asymmetries, mobility costs, and rigidities which impede labor to freely flow over the business cycle. Thus, to get a better portrait of the momentum, we construct the Labor Market Indicator (LMI) focusing on the cyclical similarities of eighteen time series from the Colombian household, industrial, and opinion surveys between 2001 and 2019. Our indicator summarizes the growth cycle of the labor market and its evolution is closely related to the output and unemployment GAP. This indicator is useful for policy analysis as it is useful to forecast headline inflation, it also complements the diagnosis of the current momentum of the labor market, the general economic activity, and the characterization of economic phases and turning points.

REVIEW OF LITERATURE ON TURNAROUND STRATEGY IN BANKING

2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 10-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maryam binti Badrul Munir ◽  
Dr Muhamad Muda ◽  
Dr Ummi Salwa Ahmad Bustamam
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Keyword Search ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Recovery Process ◽  
Review Of Literature ◽  
Current State ◽  
Cost Efficiencies ◽  
Research Gap ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Conventional And Islamic Banks

Purpose of the study: The business cycle always occur in banking activities. For that reason, banks often prepare a turnaround strategy to keep banking growing during changes of business cycles during which often happen during changes in the economic situation or changes in the regulation of a country. This article reviews study on banking turnaround strategy (in conventional and Islamic banks) regarding to the model turnaround strategy by Schoenberg, Collier, and Bowman (2013) from January 1990 to December 2017, in order to identify the current state of study and research gap. The publications were classified into process-orientated strategies and content-orientated strategies. The process-orientated strategies were divided into cost efficiencies, asset retrenchment, focus on core activities and build the activities. Meanwhile, the content-orientated strategies were classified into the changes of organisational structure and culture change. Methodology: This paper focuses on peer-reviewed Economy journal, excluding book and book chapters. The keywords included ‘turnaround strategy in banking’ and ‘business cycle’. Articles were only selected if they directly addressed into turnaround banking and the business cycle. The sample was generated by applying a keyword search on Mendeley database. Main Findings: There were 122 out of 250 in the sample analysed on the banking turnaround strategy. The majority of studies were concerned with the process-oriented strategies (such as the focus on core activities and build of the activities). Applications of this study: This study can be useful for strategic management of banking Novelty/Originality of this study: The implementation of turnaround model strategy by Schoenberg, Collier, and Bowman (2013) as the management strategies during the recovery process in banking.

Predicting Turning Points of the Business Cycle: Do Financial Sector Variables Help?

2013 ◽  
pp. 63-81 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Pestova
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Choice Model ◽  
Turning Points ◽  
Financial Sector ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Macroeconomic Dynamics ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Binary Choice Model

The objective of this study is to develop a system of leading indicators of the business cycle turning points for a wide range of countries, including Russia, over a period of more than thirty years. We use a binary choice model with the dependent variable of the state of economy: the recession, there is no recession. These models allow us to assess how likely is the change of macroeconomic dynamics from positive to negative and vice versa. Empirical analysis suggests that the inclusion of financial sector variables into equation can significantly improve the predictive power of the models of the turning points of business cycles. At the same time, models with financial and real sector variables obtained in the paper outperform the "naive" models based only on the leading indicator of GDP in the OECD methodology due to either a lower level of noise (recession model) or a higher predictive power (model of the recovery from recession).

How Is Tax Policy Conducted Over the Business Cycle?

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 327-370 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos A. Vegh ◽  
Guillermo Vuletin
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Tax Policy ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Tax Rates ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
Cyclical Behavior ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Shed Light

It is well known by now that government spending has typically been procyclical in developing economies but acyclical or countercyclical in industrial countries. Little, if any, is known, however, about the cyclical behavior of tax rates (as opposed to tax revenues, which are endogenous to the business cycle and, hence, cannot shed light on the cyclicality of tax policy). We build a novel dataset on tax rates for 62 countries for the period 1960–2013 that comprises corporate income, personal income, and value-added tax rates. We find that tax policy is acyclical in industrial countries but mostly procyclical in developing countries. (JEL E32, E64, H24, H25, O11, O23)

scholarly journals Seasonal Adjustment and the Business Cycle in Unemployment

2000 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 73-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philip Hans Franses ◽  
Paul de Bruin
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Seasonal Adjustment ◽  
The Business Cycle
Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document