scholarly journals The Effects of Short-Term Capital Flows on Exchange Rates in Intermediate and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: Empirical Evidence from Turkey

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bahar Erdal ◽  
Abuzer Pinar
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Short Term

scholarly journals International Liquidity and Exchange Rate Dynamics *

2015 ◽  
Vol 130 (3) ◽  
pp. 1369-1420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xavier Gabaix ◽  
Matteo Maggiori
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Market Model ◽  
International Liquidity ◽  
Balance Sheets ◽  
Macroeconomic Analysis ◽  
International Pricing

Abstract We provide a theory of the determination of exchange rates based on capital flows in imperfect financial markets. Capital flows drive exchange rates by altering the balance sheets of financiers that bear the risks resulting from international imbalances in the demand for financial assets. Such alterations to their balance sheets cause financiers to change their required compensation for holding currency risk, thus affecting both the level and volatility of exchange rates. Our theory of exchange rate determination in imperfect financial markets not only helps rationalize the empirical disconnect between exchange rates and traditional macroeconomic fundamentals, it also has real consequences for output and risk sharing. Exchange rates are sensitive to imbalances in financial markets and seldom perform the shock absorption role that is central to traditional theoretical macroeconomic analysis. Our framework is flexible; it accommodates a number of important modeling features within an imperfect financial market model, such as nontradables, production, money, sticky prices or wages, various forms of international pricing-to-market, and unemployment.

Negotiating the Trilemma: The Indian Experience

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 1850249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abhijit Sen Gupta ◽  
Ganesh Manjhi
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Active Management ◽  
Reserve Bank ◽  
Indian Experience ◽  
Policy Objectives ◽  
Healthy Growth

Increased integration with the global capital markets in recent years has forced India to negotiate the trilemma, balancing the objectives of monetary independence, exchange rate stability, and orderly capital flows. India’s calibrated approach towards liberalization of capital account, wherein certain flows and agents were accorded priority in the liberalization process, has helped India to deal with the trilemma. In this paper, we examine India’s experience in negotiating the trilemma during the last three decades. In doing so, we deviate from the existing literature by quantifying the various policy objectives under the trilemma. This allows us to analyze the extent to which pursuit of an objective has entailed giving up two other objectives. Using empirical methods, we find that India has been constrained by the trilemma during the last three decades. However, instead of adopting corner solutions, India has juggled the various policy objectives under the trilemma as per the demands of the macroeconomic situation. The overall policy architecture encompassed active management of capital flows, especially volatile flows and debt flows, a moderately flexible exchange rate regime with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) intervening at times to prevent excessive volatility, sterilization of these interventions through multiple instruments, and building up of a stockpile of reserves. This intermediate approach has suited India well as it has been able to maintain a healthy growth rate, targeted monetary and credit growth rates, a moderate inflation rate through most of the period, and a sustainable current account deficit.

scholarly journals What Drives Stops in Cross-Border Bond Flows?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (14) ◽  
pp. 3763
Author(s):  
Seung-Gwan Baek ◽  
Chi-Young Song
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Exchange Rate Regimes ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Regression Method ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Capital Account ◽  
Cross Border

This paper empirically explores the determinants of stop episodes driven by bond flows using quarterly data from 38 economies over the period 1995–2011. Drastic bond-led stop episodes may greatly destabilize domestic financial markets and lead to financial crisis, threatening the sustainability of the financial system. Using the complementary log–log regression method, we found that bond-led stop episodes were associated with contagion and domestic factors rather than global factors. The results of our estimation showed that the probability of bond-led stop episodes was higher in countries with larger financial markets or with more overvalued real exchange rates. The main policy implications of our results, particularly for emerging economies, are that bond-led stop episodes were less likely to occur in countries with higher levels of institutional quality, lower capital account restrictions, or more flexible exchange-rate regimes. Finally, we found that capital control played a relatively greater role in predicting bond-led stops in emerging economies than did exchange-rate regimes.

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