scholarly journals Examining the Degree of Foreign Trade Dependence and Its Influence on GDP Growth

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 71
Author(s):  
Senija Nuhanović ◽  
Mirnesa Baraković Nurikić
Keyword(s):  
International Economic ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Basic Goal

Contemporary international economic environment registers an increasing relationship and interdependence of countries regardless of the degree of their development. In the open economy, the development of foreign trade mainly implies the growth of gross domestic product (GDP). The basic goal of this paper is to examine the influence and effects of trade dependence on GDP. Trade dependence is used to describe a country for which exports and imports are very important. This coefficient also shows the degree of national economy openness. The analysis included the area of Bosnia and Herzegovina for the period 2010-2018, whereby the relevant statistical data were processed for export, import, GDP, as well as the selected coefficient of foreign trade dependence. The results showed the existence of a short-term or long-term relationship between GDP and the total export and import, as well as between GDP and export.

scholarly journals PORT LOGISTICS VIABILITY ANALYSIS

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 34-50
Author(s):  
Alphonse Hounsounou ◽  
Hito Braga De Moraes ◽  
Maamar El Robrini
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Viability Analysis ◽  
Port Logistics ◽  
Multicriteria Method ◽  
Port Infrastructure ◽  
Quality Infrastructure

This article aims to perform the logistic viability analysis of PAC for West Africa using the AHP multicriteria method. This port contributes largely in the country's economy through customs and tax revenues, the formation of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and also in international trade. Four criteria (quality of infrastructure and services, equipment productivity, and logistics cost of cargo) were modeled. With the result, the port infrastructure criterion is most important, followed by the port equipment criterion. Showing the importance of each port logistics viability criterion (infrastructure, service, equipment, cost), the alternative long-term logistics viability is preferable to the medium-term and short-term. The application of the AHP shows in its result that for long-term port logistics viability, it is preferable to invest more in modern and quality infrastructure and equipment.

scholarly journals Credit Cycles: Econometric Analysis and Evidence for Russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 113-122
Author(s):  
N. V. Artamonov ◽  
D. V. Artamonov ◽  
V. A. Artamonov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Russian Federation ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Credit Cycles ◽  
Real Gdp

One of the principal problem in contemporary macroeconomics is concerned with factors increasing or decreasing economic dynamics. The mainstream approach is based on neoclassical assumptions, but recently new approaches appear mostly based on new Keynesian concepts. In present time the influence of monetary market and credit instruments become more and more significant. Credit resources of banking and financial structures can affect and distort to reallocation of resources for national and even for global economic. In present paper an empiric and econometric analysis for some macroeconometric and monetary indices for Russian Federation is done. An econometrical models describing the influence of credit variables onto real GDP is estimated. It is shown that in short-term periods changes in credit variables do influence significantly onto GDP. It is shown that on short-term periods changes in money aggregate M2 brings influence (through credit variables) onto national output. As well it is shown that changes in short-term interest rate brings significant negative influence onto real output. Impulse response functions for GDP on shocks of credit variables, monetary base and short-term interest rate are evaluated. For the present study of credit cycles and their impact to real business cycles statistical data (quarterly time series) on the following factors for Russian Federation are collected: nominal and real GDP, monetary base M2, short-term interest rate, long-term interest rate (10-year treasuries bill rate), total debt outstanding. All time series are seasonally adjusted and collected for the period 2004 Q1 - 2013 Q2. All interest rates are adjusted for inflation (i.e. we deal with real interest rates). The investigation of long-term relationship for the factors under consideration are based on integration. It is important to note that in the present paper all econometric models are estimated on "pure" statistical data, while in many research papers on business and credit cycles all evaluations and inferences are based on "filtered" time series (mostly filtered by Hodrick-Prescott's method). In present paper "causality" always means "Granger causality". All estimations are made in gretl, an open-source multiplatform econometric software.

scholarly journals Imbalance of the public finance in the context of Keynesian and Non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy limitation

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 27-32
Author(s):  
Joanna Stawska
Keyword(s):  
Public Finance ◽  
Economic Growth ◽  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
Methods Of Analysis ◽  
Restrictive Policy

The purpose of this article is to point out the importance of the size of public debt and deficit in the context of Keynesian and non-Keynesian effects of fiscal policy limitation. To achieve this objective primarily were used methods of analysis of the available literature and presentation of statistical data. Considerations include, among others, the presentation of public debt and deficit in the context of economic growth. Expansionary fiscal policy often caused by economic fluctuations contributes to the deepening of public finance imbalance with frequent decline in GDP growth. The restrictive policy has an influence on improving the situation of the public finance sector in the long-term with at least moderate economic growth.

scholarly journals Revisiting the effects of relevant factors on Pakistan's agricultural products export

2020 ◽  
Vol 66 (No. 12) ◽  
pp. 527-541
Author(s):  
Zaid Ashiq Khan ◽  
Mansoor Ahmed Koondhar ◽  
Noshaba Aziz ◽  
Uzair Ali ◽  
Liu Tianjun
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
National Economy ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Agricultural Products ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag

Pakistan is an agriculture-based country, so the agricultural sector is known as the backbone of the national economy. Considering the national economy and the agricultural industry, it is necessary to focus on earnings through agricultural products export to improve the livelihood of local farmers. Therefore, the current study aimed to analyse the short-term and long-term factors affecting agricultural products export. The annual time series of 1976–2016 were collected from World Bank indicators, the Food and Agriculture Organization, and the Statistical Bureau of Pakistan. An autoregressive distributed lag, along with a vector error correction model, was employed. A cointegration test showed long-term associations between the selected variables. While the autoregressive distributed lag model confirmed the short-term correlation between area sown and crop production towards agricultural products export, there is no long-term relationship between the selected variables. In addition, the bidirectional correlation between employment in agriculture and agricultural products export was confirmed by the vector error correction model. Therefore, it is essential to increase agricultural production with the available natural resources to increase foreign earnings.

scholarly journals Analysis and forecasting of performance indicators of air transport facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 291 ◽  
pp. 08009
Author(s):  
Elena Kochkina ◽  
Elena Radkovskaya ◽  
Kseniya Denezhkina
Keyword(s):  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Statistical Data ◽  
Development Trend ◽  
Quality Characteristics ◽  
Air Transport ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Significant Growth ◽  
Passenger Traffic

Aviation is one of the most significant growth drivers not only for the transportation infrastructure, but also for country’s economy as it contributes to both industrial and social progress of society. The paper focuses on Sheremetyevo International Airport, one of the largest Russian airports and analyzes it in terms of short-term and long-term perspectives. Using real statistical data, the article presents the models for forecasting essential performance indicators of airports, namely, passenger traffic and revenue. By comparing quality characteristics, most suitable models were selected and checked for adequacy. Forecasts of the probable changes in the values of the performance indicators were made under the assumption of maintaining the previously formed development trend.

scholarly journals Analysis of The Effect of Gross Domestic Product, Exchange Rate, and Inflation on Balance of Payments in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (10) ◽  
pp. 361-374
Author(s):  
Muammar Rinaldi ◽  
Shinta Arida Hutagalung ◽  
Muhammad Fitri Rahmadana
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
The Exchange Rate

This study aims to analyze the effect of the short and long term gross domestic product, exchange rate, and inflation on Indonesia's balance of payments. The data used in this study are secondary data which is obtained indirectly with the period of 1995 to 2015. Data sources were obtained from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The data collection method used in this study with the indirect method is documentation through recording or copying data from Bank Indonesia and the Central Bureau of Statistics. The analysis model used is Error Correction Mechanism (ECM). The results of this study indicate that the regression model of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the long term and Error Correction Model (ECM) regarding the effect of independent variables such as Interest Rates, Gross Domestic Product and Inflation Against the Dependent dependent variable in Indonesia, then it can some conclusions are presented, namely from several independent variables that are tried and included in the savings equation in Indonesia using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) for the long term and Error Correction Model (ECM) for the short term, namely the gross domestic product variable, the inflation rate, and exchange rate. In the long run there are 2 (two) significant variables, namely gross domestic product and the exchange rate. While inflation is not significant. For the short term, there is 1 (one) significant variable, namely the exchange rate. Thus, only exchange rate variables are significant in both the short and long term. With only 1 (one) significant independent variable both in the long term and short term, it can be concluded that the exchange rate in the long term and short term is the main determining factor that affects the Balance of Payments in Indonesia. In the long run, Independent variables such as Gross Domestic Product and the exchange rate on the dependent variable Balance of Payments in Indonesia have a significant effect on the dependent variable Balance of Payments. Whereas in the short run, the exchange rate variable has a significant effect, and for other independent variables such as the GDP variable and the inflation rate does not have a significant effect.

scholarly journals PENGARUH INFLASI, JUB, SBI, SERTA CADANGAN DEVISA TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TAHUN 2017-2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 60-72
Author(s):  
Duwik Tri Utami ◽  
Fitrah Sari Islami
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Exchange Reserves ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Indonesia's economy refers to an open economy. In conducting international trade, countries must compare their currencies with currencies belonging to other countries. Where, the United States currency, namely the dollar, is still the standard of world exchange rates and is used in international transactions. The effect of fluctuations in the exchange rate of the rupiah with the dollar is the occurrence of depreciation or appreciation which will affect Indonesia's economic activities. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of inflation, the money supply (M2), the SBI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves on the rupiah exchange rate in the short and long term. The variables that are thought to be able to influence changes in the rupiah exchange rate are the inflation rate, the money supply (M2), the SBI interest rate, and foreign exchange reserves. This research was conducted during January 2017 to December 2020, using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The result is a long-term and short-term relationship. In the short term, foreign exchange reserves and the money supply (M2) significantly affect the exchange rate. Meanwhile, in the long term, the SBI interest rate, money supply (M2), and foreign exchange reserves significantly affect the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Foreign Trade Liberalisation and Economic Growth: The Case of the Republic of Srpska

ECONOMICS ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 99-108
Author(s):  
Goran Popović ◽  
Ognjen Erić ◽  
Srđa Popović
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Total Trade ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This paper assesses the impact of trade liberalisation on the economic growth of the Republic of Srpska (RS). The aim of the research is to prove the hypothesis that trade liberalisation and export orientation positively impact on GDP growth. RS has characteristically small and open economies. The degree and character of the connections between the observed variables was determined by means of regression analysis. Regression analysis indicates that there is a positive connection between the total trade and GDP growth. Further, there is a marked positive correlation between export and GDP, that is, export growth contributes to GDP growth. Foreign trade deficit stands in a negative correlation with GDP. Lastly, regression analysis points to the connection between the Republic of Srpska economic growth and openness of its economy. However, uncontrolled opening and exposure to foreign competitiveness can also bring about problems which in certain circumstances lead to long-term macroeconomic instability.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document