scholarly journals The Aftermath of the Tariff War on China

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Nicholas Bitar
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Shed Light ◽  
Trump Administration

Will the US sustain its economy after the tariff war with China, or will the economy regress? This paper offers a conceptual framework, based on the tenets of New-Keynesian theory, to answer this question. I anticipate that the tariff will have a positive effect on the GDP of the US economy in the short run while prices will rise. When adding the most recent reforms of interest cut by the Fed to 1.75% in September (2019) the model concludes a better outcome. Followed by an expansionary monetary policy by reducing the interest rate, the aftermath of the tariff war on China seems to have a positive impact on the US income and productivity. Obviously, some critics to the Trump Administration indeed shed light on the curtailed global and US social welfare that is caused by the inflationary effect of the tariff war, in addition to the deteriorating conditions for some trading sectors in the US which would certainly lead to unemployment. But the benefits to the US economy that are translated by the New-Keynesian theoretical framework show a positive impact on US production, employment, and GDP.

scholarly journals A Predictive Model for the US Non-profit Market; A Macro to a Micro Perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-9
Author(s):  
Francisco J Quevedo ◽  
Andrea Katherine Quevedo-Prince
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Government Failure ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
Confirmatory Factor ◽  
The Us ◽  
Significance Levels ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Effect

The Non-Profit Sector contributes almost $1 trillion to the US economy, representing 5.4% of GDP, and generating over 12 million jobs in 2017. Researchers suggest that a better understanding of the factors that affect fundraising would be of great interest to policymakers and fundraisers. However, the workings of the sector are subject of much debate. Some relate its size to the Theory of Government Failure, while others propose that government funding does have a positive effect on revenues. Some have suggested they swing with Gross Domestic Product (GDP), but others contradict this view and contend that macroeconomic variables do not affect short-run dynamics. Some research found that non-profit revenues react more to economic upswings than downturns, but nationwide organizations relate the ups-and-downs to certain events, as they influence public awareness. Predictive modeling overall has focused on big-donor analytics, aimed at identifying potential sponsors. Our research set out instead to define a working model for the US Non-Profit Sector. After an exhausting search, we located complete time series for an emblematic segment, the environmental cause, Factor Analysis allowed us to pinpoint the independent variables. We found that Non-Profit Revenues (NPR) depend largely on Public Awareness, as measured by TV coverage, and on Disposable Personal Income (DPI), specifically: NPR = -4401.542 + 528.327(DPI) +23.121(TVCoverage) + Ɛ We replicated prior research, which sought out relationships between macro-economic variables and NPR. That study had discarded the correlation between GDP and NPR as obvious, but did not explore DPI as the determining factor, and stuck to single variable searches, finding a correlation between the Standard & Poors index and lagged NPR figures, with a correlation coefficient of 0.636. Our model’s Pearson's R came up to 0.935, with perfect significance levels. Confirmatory Factor Analysis reaffirmed the fit of our equation, with an R² of 0.87.

scholarly journals Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What Has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?

2002 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas M. Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Shed Light

The monetary implications arising from EMU for Swiss monetary policy show up primarily in the exchange rate. As of yet, fluctuations in the Swiss franc against the euro have been surprisingly moderate. The Swiss franc has thus tracked the euro's decline against the US dollar without experiencing strong inflationary pressures and a convergence in the interest-rate differential: a paradoxical result for a small open economy. This paper examines critically whether the recent record reveals information about a change in SNB monetary policy. It also attempts to shed light on the SNB's ability to implement an independent monetary policy with the new landscape defined by EMU. Four hypotheses of euro tracking are considered.

scholarly journals The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound

2017 ◽  
Vol 107 (7) ◽  
pp. 1971-2006 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher Gust ◽  
Edward Herbst ◽  
David López-Salido ◽  
Matthew E. Smith
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Bayesian Methods ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Slow Recovery ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Empirical Implications

Using Bayesian methods, we estimate a nonlinear DSGE model in which the interest-rate lower bound is occasionally binding. We quantify the size and nature of disturbances that pushed the US economy to the lower bound in late 2008 as well as the contribution of the lower bound constraint to the resulting economic slump. We find that the interest-rate lower bound was a significant constraint on monetary policy that exacerbated the recession and inhibited the recovery, as our mean estimates imply that the zero lower bound (ZLB) accounted for about 30 percent of the sharp contraction in US GDP that occurred in 2009 and an even larger fraction of the slow recovery that followed. (JEL C11, C32, E12, E23, E32, E43, E52, G01)

scholarly journals Limited Participation in Equity Markets and Business Cycles

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (026) ◽  
pp. 1-79
Author(s):  
Juan M. Morelli ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Equity Markets ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Monetary Policy Shocks ◽  
Limited Participation ◽  
Macroeconomic Shocks ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
The Individual

This paper studies how the rise in US households' participation in equity markets affects the transmission of macroeconomic shocks to the economy. I embed limited participation into a New Keynesian framework for the US economy to analyze the individual and aggregate effects of higher participation. I derive three main results. First, participants are relatively more responsive to shocks than nonparticipants. Second, higher participation reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. Third, with higher participation the economy becomes less volatile. I contrast key predictions of my model with new micro-level empirical evidence on the response of consumption to monetary policy shocks.

The Role of Different Channels in Transmitting Monetary Policy into Output and Price in Vietnam

2015 ◽  
pp. 20-40
Author(s):  
Vinh Nguyen Thi Thuy
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rate Channel

The paper investigates the mechanism of monetary transmission in Vietnam through different channels - namely the interest rate channel, the exchange rate channel, the asset channel and the credit channel for the period January 1995 - October 2009. This study applies VAR analysis to evaluate the monetary transmission mechanisms to output and price level. To compare the relative importance of different channels for transmitting monetary policy, the paper estimates the impulse response functions and variance decompositions of variables. The empirical results show that the changes in money supply have a significant impact on output rather than price in the short run. The impacts of money supply on price and output are stronger through the exchange rate and credit channels, but however, are weaker through the interest rate channel. The impacts of monetary policy on output and inflation may be erroneous through the equity price channel because of the lack of an established and well-functioning stock market.

scholarly journals On the Limits of Macroprudential Policy

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcin Kolasa
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Output Volatility ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Collateral Constraints ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Additional Stabilization ◽  
The Interest Rate

AbstractThis paper studies how macroprudential policy tools applied to the housing market can complement the interest rate-based monetary policy in achieving one additional stabilization objective, defined as keeping either economic activity or credit at some exogenous (and possibly time-varying) levels. We show analytically in a canonical New Keynesian model with housing and collateral constraints that using the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio, tax on credit or tax on property as additional policy instruments does not resolve the inflation-output volatility tradeoff. Perfect targeting of inflation and credit with monetary and macroprudential policy is possible only if the role of housing debt in the economy is sufficiently small. The identified limits to the considered policies are related to their predominantly intertemporal impact on decisions made by financially constrained agents, making them poor complements to monetary policy, which also operates at an intertemporal margin. These limits can be overcome if macroprudential policy is instead designed such that it sufficiently redistributes income between savers and borrowers.

scholarly journals The integrative force of political institutions? Direct democracy and voter turnout across ethnic and nativity groups

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anita Manatschal
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Direct Democracy ◽  
First Generation ◽  
The Us ◽  
Alternative Measures ◽  
Hispanic Voters ◽  
Democratic Elections ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Shed Light

AbstractMuch has been written on the positive effect of direct democracy (initiatives, referendums) on voter turnout. However, we have limited knowledge about potential differential effects on voters belonging to various ethnic groups. The paper argues that depending on a group’s responsiveness to the political context, direct democracy can (dis-)integrate voters (from) into the electorate. Empirical analysis of Current Population Survey (CPS) voting supplement survey data, together with data on the absolute use of direct democracy across US states, corroborates this theoretical expectation, however lending more support for the disintegrating assumption. Frequent direct democratic elections further widen the negative voting gap between first-generation Asian voters and voters living in the US for three generations or longer, whereas they tend to diminish this voting gap for first-generation Hispanic voters. The disintegrative pattern for first-generation Asian voters remains even significant when excluding California from the state sample, yet not the integrative tendency for first-generation Hispanics. Additional analyses using alternative measures of direct democracy and voting, and applying statistical adjustments to address causality concerns, confirm the robustness of these findings, which shed light on the so-far underexplored (dis-)integrative potential of political institutions.

CHALLENGES OF DEVELOPMENT OF AN ANTI-CRISIS STRATEGY TO OVERCOME THE CORONOVIRUS PANDEMIC AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

2020 ◽  
pp. 68-83
Author(s):  
Elena Lutskaya ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Federal Reserve ◽  
Financial System ◽  
Global Markets ◽  
Federal Reserve System ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
Reserve System

The article examines the views of Western researchers on overcoming the COVID-19 crisis and its consequences. The main focus is on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve system - the most developed financial system that affects both the US economy and global markets.

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY AND TELECOMMUNICATION OUTPUT IN NIGERIA

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 62-73
Author(s):  
John Abiodun Akinde ◽  
Elijah Oludayo
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Negative Influence ◽  
Favourable Effect ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Positive Effect

Different policies impact on the growth of the telecommunication sector in Nigeria. One of these policies which influence the expansion or contraction of the telecommunication output is monetary policy. To this end, this research examined the effect of monetary policy on telecommunication output in Nigeria. For the purpose of analysis, time series secondary data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin covering the periods1986 to 2018. Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) technique was employed after examining the stationarity of the data series using Augmented Dickey-Fuller technique. The bound co-integration test revealed that there is long run equilibrium between the monetary policy variables employed and telecommunication output. The ARDL result revealed that money supply had significant and positive effect on telecommunication output in the short and long run; liquidity ratio produced an insignificant and negative relationship with telecommunication output in the short run and insignificant positive effect in the long run; exchange rate had insignificant negative effect in the short run and a significant positive effect on telecommunication output in the long run; consumer price index had significant negative influence on telecommunication outputboth in the short run and long run. The study concluded that monetary policy stimulates telecommunication output in Nigeria. Thus, it was recommended that the monetary authority should pursue an expansionary monetary policy to sustain the positive influence of money supply on telecommunication output in Nigeria while rolling out policy to reduce the liquidity ratio of banks in the short run but increase it in the long run so that the long term favourable effect of liquidity ratio can be felt on telecommunication output.  

scholarly journals INFLASI DARI SUDUT PANDANG MONETER DAN FISKAL (STUDI KASUS SUMATERA BARAT)

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 131
Author(s):  
Zul Azhar ◽  
Alpon Satrianto ◽  
Nofitasari Nofitasari
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
Descriptive Research ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Effect

This study aims to analyze the effect of money supply M2, interest rate, government spending and local tax on the inflation in West Sumatera. This type of research is descriptive research and secondary datain the form of time-series from quartely 1 2007 to 2017 quartely 4 using the method of Autoregresive Distributed Lag analysis. The results of this study indicate that money supply in the long run have a significant and positive effect on inflation West Sumatera. In the short run  and long run the interest rate has a significant and positive effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Government spending in the Long run has a significant and negative effect on inflation in West Sumatera. Based on the result of this study can be concluded that there is inflation in West Sumatera is monetery of phenomenon in the long run. 

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