Structural Break, Nonlinearity and the Hysteresis hypothesis: Evidence from new unit root tests.

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Zarina Oflaz
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Tests

A revisit of the unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth and Inflation of Pakistan: Whether Structural break or unit root?

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 80-92
Author(s):  
Sara Muhammadullah ◽  
Amena Urooj ◽  
Faridoon Khan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators

The study investigates the query of structural break or unit root considering four macroeconomic indicators; unemployment rate, interest rate, GDP growth, and inflation rate of Pakistan. The previous studies create ambiguity regarding the stationarity and non-stationarity of these variables. We employ Zivot & Andrews (1992) unit root test and Step Indicator Saturation (SIS) method for multiple break detection in mean. GDP growth and inflation rate are stationary at level whereas unit root tests fail to reject the null hypothesis of the unemployment rate and interest rate at level. However, Zivot and Andrew unit root test with a single endogenous break indicates that the unemployment rate and interest rate are stationary at level with a single endogenous break. On the other hand, the SIS method reveals that the series are stationary with multiple structural breaks. It is inferred that it is inappropriate to take the first difference of the unemployment rate and interest rate to attain stationarity. The results of this study confirmed that there exist multiple breaks in the macroeconomic variables considered in the context of Pakistan.

scholarly journals GROWTH SLOWDOWNS AND MIDDLE-INCOME TRAP: EVIDENCE FROM NEW UNIT ROOT FRAMEWORK

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-17
Author(s):  
FUMITAKA FURUOKA ◽  
KIEW LING PUI ◽  
CHINYERE EZEOKE ◽  
RAY I. JACOB ◽  
OLAOLUWA S. YAYA
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Testing Procedure ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Middle Income Countries ◽  
Middle Income Trap ◽  
High Possibility

This paper suggests a new testing procedure to systematically examine the middle-income trap (MIT). To empirically demonstrate this procedure, one high income and 14 middle-income countries are examined using newly developed unit root tests — Fourier ADF with structural break (FADF-SB) and Seemingly Unrelated Regressions Fourier ADF (SUR-FADF). The FADF-SB test incorporates unknown nonlinearity and smooth break in the time-series, while the SUR-FADF test accounts for cross-sectional dependency. The empirical findings produced mixed results: 10 countries have a relatively high possibility of facing the MIT problem, while only one country has a relatively low possibility of facing the problem. For the remaining three countries, it is uncertain whether they will face the problem of MIT. These empirical findings have significant policy implications.

Joint hypothesis specification for unit root tests with a structural break

2006 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 196-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre ◽  
Andreu Sansó
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Tests

Fixed and Recursive Right-Tailed Dickey–Fuller Tests in the Presence of a Break under the Null

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Robert Sollis
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Null Hypothesis ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Size Distortion ◽  
Asset Price Bubbles ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Fixed Sample ◽  
Drift Parameter

AbstractRight-tailed Dickey–Fuller-type unit root tests against the explosive alternative have become popular in economics and finance for detecting asset price bubbles. This paper studies the size properties of fixed sample and recursive right-tailed Dickey–Fuller tests if the relevant series contains a unit root, but a structural break in the drift parameter occurs. It is shown that positive size distortion and therefore spurious rejections of the unit root null hypothesis in favour of the explosive alternative can be a problem for both types of test. Some possible solutions to this problem are briefly discussed.

scholarly journals Smooth Break Detection and De-Trending in Unit Root Testing

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 371
Author(s):  
Furkan Emirmahmutoglu ◽  
Tolga Omay ◽  
Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad ◽  
Safwan Mohd Nor
Keyword(s):  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Smooth Transition ◽  
Unit Root Testing ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Power Comparisons ◽  
Fourier Function ◽  
Unexpected Outcomes

This study explores the methods to de-trend the smooth structural break processes while conducting the unit root tests. The two most commonly applied approaches for modelling smooth structural breaks namely the smooth transition and the Fourier functions are considered. We perform a sequence of power comparisons among alternative unit root tests that accommodate smooth or sharp structural breaks. The power experiments demonstrate that the unit root tests utilizing the Fourier function lead to unexpected results. Furthermore, through simulation studies, we investigate the source of such unexpected outcomes. Moreover, we provide the asymptotic distribution of two recently proposed unit root tests, namely Fourier-Augmented Dickey–Fuller (FADF) and Fourier-Kapetanios, Shin and Shell (FKSS), which are not given in the original studies. Lastly, we find that the selection of de-trending function is pivotal for unit root testing with structural breaks.

Testing the Unit Root Hypothesis When the Alternative is a Trend Break Stationary Process: An Application to Tourist Arrivals in Fiji

2005 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 351-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paresh Kumar Narayan
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Structural Change ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Stationary Process ◽  
Structural Break ◽  
Unit Root Tests ◽  
Test Statistic ◽  
Seminal Contribution ◽  
The Usa

The unit root hypothesis owes much to the work of Dickey and Fuller and has gained momentum since the seminal contribution of Perron (1989), who introduced the idea of structural breaks in unit root tests. In a recent study Sen (2003), extending the work of Zivot and Andrews (1992), recommends the F-test statistic for a unit root in the presence of a structural change in the economy. The central aim of this paper is to apply the Sen test to tourist arrivals to Fiji. The idea behind this exercise is to identify the year of the structural break and, more importantly, to examine whether the break has had a permanent or temporary effect on tourist arrivals in Fiji. Among our key results, we find that visitor arrivals in Fiji from Australia, New Zealand and the USA are stationary, implying that shocks have a temporary effect.

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