The optimal allocation of investment between antivirals and vaccines for influenza pandemic preparedness planning

2008 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi, Jennifer Wang
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Preparedness Planning

scholarly journals Original Article .The Optimal Allocation of Investment between Antivirals and Vaccines for Influenza Pandemic Preparedness Planning

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-33
Author(s):  
Yi Wang ◽  
Yu-yuan Li ◽  
Wen Guo
Keyword(s):  
Attack Rate ◽  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Reproductive Number ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Fixed Amount ◽  
Post Vaccination ◽  
Preparedness Planning ◽  
Mathematic Modeling ◽  
Fixed Budget

Abstract Objectives To investigate that given a fixed amount of financial resources, what is the optimal combination of vaccine and antiviral stockpiles in terms of minimizing the attack rate. Methods Mathematic modeling was used to simulate the dynamics that with fixed influenza pandemic budget. Different budget conditions were observed if the combination changed. Framework between vaccines and antivirals was introduced by taking into account the uncertainty in vaccine and antiviral efficacy. Results Given a fixed budget, different budget allocations between vaccines and antivirals stockpile gave different attack rates. When the price of vaccine was lower than or similar with the antivirals, the attack rate increased with increasing investment in antiviral. But if the price of the vaccine was higher than the antivirals, the attack rate may not decrease with increasing investment in vaccine. Fixed the vaccine effectiveness, higher effectiveness of antiviral got a lower attack rate.When both antiviral and vaccine were with 50% probability of effectiveness, the attack rate changed by antiviral stockpile with a same pattern as they were with 100% efficacy probability, even it has a higher attack rate. Conclusions Assume the antivirals have 100% probability to be effective, budget was limited to a fix number, then in any event, population should stockpile a small amount of antivirals such that if the post-vaccination reproductive number turns out to be near 1, the additional intervention may further reduce the reproductive number to <1 and prevent the epidemic. Under the fixed budget, the price of the vaccines and antivirals will strongly affect the strategy of the stockpile allocation. When the price of vaccine is comparative lower, more investment of vaccine is better for the pandemic control, but if the vaccine price is too high then more investment in antiviral may be better. We found that attack rates and the optimal budget allocation depend on the probability to be effective of vaccine and antivirals.

scholarly journals The influenza pandemic preparedness planning tool InfluSim

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Eichner ◽  
Markus Schwehm ◽  
Hans-Peter Duerr ◽  
Stefan O Brockmann
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Planning Tool ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Preparedness Planning

scholarly journals Influenza pandemic: preparedness planning in Germany

2002 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-5 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Fock ◽  
H Bergmann ◽  
H Bußmann ◽  
G Fell ◽  
E J Finke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Preparedness Plan ◽  
Federal States ◽  
Preparedness Planning ◽  
Spanish Flu ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness Plan

The following conceptual framework formed the basis for a common decision made by the health ministers of Germany's 16 federal states to set up an influenza pandemic preparedness plan. The worst case scenario was used, on the basis of the data from the pandemic of 'Spanish flu', in 1918-20. The priority groups for vaccination were assessed, as well as the potentially available antiviral treatments. National policies could be highly improved by a common European view.

scholarly journals Securing circulation pharmaceutically: Antiviral stockpiling and pandemic preparedness in the European Union

2014 ◽  
Vol 45 (5) ◽  
pp. 440-457 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefan Elbe ◽  
Anne Roemer-Mahler ◽  
Christopher Long
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Scientific Evidence ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Policy Option ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Public Controversy ◽  
Preparedness Planning ◽  
Antiviral Medications

Governments in Europe and around the world amassed vast pharmaceutical stockpiles in anticipation of a potentially catastrophic influenza pandemic. Yet the comparatively ‘mild’ course of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic provoked considerable public controversy around those stockpiles, leading to questions about their cost–benefit profile and the commercial interests allegedly shaping their creation, as well as around their scientific evidence base. So, how did governments come to view pharmaceutical stockpiling as such an indispensable element of pandemic preparedness planning? What are the underlying security rationalities that rapidly rendered antivirals such a desirable option for government planners? Drawing upon an in-depth reading of Foucault’s notion of a ‘crisis of circulation’, this article argues that the rise of pharmaceutical stockpiling across Europe is integral to a governmental rationality of political rule that continuously seeks to anticipate myriad circulatory threats to the welfare of populations – including to their overall levels of health. Novel antiviral medications such as Tamiflu are such an attractive policy option because they could enable governments to rapidly modulate dangerous levels of (viral) circulation during a pandemic, albeit without disrupting all the other circulatory systems crucial for maintaining population welfare. Antiviral stockpiles, in other words, promise nothing less than a pharmaceutical securing of circulation itself.

H5N1 planning concerns for local governments

2009 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 65 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert O. Schneider, PhD
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Public Education ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Public Health Surveillance ◽  
Ethical Issues ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
Health Surveillance ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Preparedness Planning

The objectives of this essay are two-fold. First, it will review the very real threat an avian influenza pandemic poses to local communities. Second, it will identify several unaddressed but critical concerns that require the attention of local governments as they refine their pandemic preparedness planning. It is concluded that greater coordination with the private sector, improved public health surveillance efforts, planning for public education, and greater attention to ethical issues are essential concerns that should be on the agenda of local governments as they proceed with their preparations.

scholarly journals European Pandemic Influenza Preparedness Planning: A Review of National Plans, July 2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 13 (03) ◽  
pp. 582-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maaike Droogers ◽  
Massimo Ciotti ◽  
Peter Kreidl ◽  
Angeliki Melidou ◽  
Pasi Penttinen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Pandemic Influenza ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Small Population ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Preparedness Planning ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
Robust Planning ◽  
2009 Influenza Pandemic ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPandemic influenza A (H1N1) commenced in April 2009. Robust planning and preparedness are needed to minimize the impact of a pandemic. This study aims to review if key elements of pandemic preparedness are included in national plans of European countries. Key elements were identified before and during the evaluations of the 2009 pandemic and are defined in this study by 42 items. These items are used to score a total of 28 publicly available national pandemic influenza plans. We found that plans published before the 2009 influenza pandemic score lower than plans published after the pandemic. Plans from countries with a small population size score significantly lower compared to national plans from countries with a big population (P &lt;.05). We stress that the review of written plans does not reflect the actual preparedness level, as the level of preparedness entails much more than the existence of a plan. However, we do identify areas of improvement for the written plans, such as including aspects on the recovery and transition phase and several opportunities to improve coordination and communication, including a description of the handover of leadership from health to wider sector management and communication activities during the pre-pandemic phase. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2019;13:582-592)

scholarly journals Does influenza pandemic preparedness and mitigation require gain-of-function research?

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 306-310
Author(s):  
Dillon C. Adam ◽  
Daniel Magee ◽  
Chau M. Bui ◽  
Matthew Scotch ◽  
C. Raina MacIntyre
Keyword(s):  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Gain Of Function
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