International Real Estate Review

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 435-492
Author(s):  
Kuang-Liang Chang ◽  
◽  
Nan-Kuang Chen ◽  
Charles Leung ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Asset Returns ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
External Finance ◽  
Simulation Based ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Competing Models ◽  
Imperfect Capital Markets

This paper revisits the relationships among macroeconomic variables and asset returns. Based on recent developments in econometrics, we categorize competing models of asset returns into different "Equivalence Predictive Power Classes" (EPPCs). During the pre-crisis period (1975-2005), some models emphasize that imperfect capital markets outperform an AR(1) for the forecast of housing returns. After 2006, a model that includes both an external finance premium (EFP) and the TED spread "learns and adjusts" faster than competing models. Models that encompass GDP experience a significant decay in predictive power. We also demonstrate that a simulation-based approach is complementary to the EPPC methodology.

A Study on Investment Decision of Investors With Reference to Penetration of Mutual Funds in India

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ratish C Gupta ◽  
Dr. Manish Mittal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Mutual Funds ◽  
Capital Markets ◽  
Mutual Fund ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Investment Decision ◽  
Fund Industry ◽  
Mutual Fund Industry ◽  
The Impact

The Indian mutual fund industry is one of the fastest growing and most competitive segments of the financial sector. The extent of under-penetration in the market is a sore point with the financial services industry, with a large amount of savings being channelized into fixed deposits, gold and real estate rather than the capital markets. The mutual fund industry is yet to spread its reach beyond Tier I cities. The top fifteen cities contribute to 85% of the pie, with the remaining 15% distributed among other cities. The study seeks to determine the impact of decision making of investors on current situation of mutual fund industry.

The Determinants of the Ex Ante Risk Premiumin Commercial Real Estate

2019 ◽  
Vol 41 (3) ◽  
pp. 411-441
Author(s):  
El i Beracha ◽  
Julia Freybote ◽  
Zhenguo Lin
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Predictive Power ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Switching Regression ◽  
Risk Premiums ◽  
Debt Capital ◽  
Ex Ante

We investigate the determinants of the ex ante risk premium in commercial real estate. Using a 20-year time series and Markov-switching regression, we find that the ex ante risk premium is affected by fundamental and non-fundamental determinants, albeit not symmetrically when risk premiums are increasing and decreasing. In particular, we find that changes in debt capital market conditions have a higher predictive power for changes in the ex ante risk premium when it is increasing, while changes in stock market volatility and commercial real estate market returns have a higher predictive power when the risk premium is on the decline. In addition, changes in commercial real estate sentiment and NAREIT returns can predict changes in the ex ante risk premium; however, the predictive power of these variables varies across property types and risk premium (risk perception) states.

The Role of Financial Innovation in EU Market Integration and the Capital Markets Union

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilios Avgouleas
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Risk Sharing ◽  
Market Integration ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Capital Markets Union ◽  
Critical Overview ◽  
The Eu

This chapter offers a critical overview of the issues that the European Union 27 (EU-27) will face in the context of making proper use of financial innovation to further market integration and risk sharing in the internal financial market, both key objectives of the drive to build a Capital Markets Union. Among these is the paradigm shift signalled by a technological revolution in the realm of finance and payments, which combines advanced data analytics and cloud computing (so-called FinTech). The chapter begins with a critical analysis of financial innovation and FinTech. It then traces the EU market integration efforts and explains the restrictive path of recent developments. It considers FinTech's potential to aid EU market integration and debates the merits of regulation dealing with financial innovation in the context of building a capital markets union in EU-27.

Capital Market Imperfections and the Sensitivity of Investment to Stock Prices

2009 ◽  
Vol 44 (3) ◽  
pp. 551-578 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexei V. Ovtchinnikov ◽  
John J. McConnell
Keyword(s):  
Capital Markets ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Debt Overhang ◽  
Capital Market Imperfections ◽  
Investment Opportunities ◽  
Imperfect Capital Markets ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
External Equity

AbstractPrior studies argue that investment by undervalued firms that require external equity is particularly sensitive to stock prices in irrational capital markets. We present a model in which investment can appear to be more sensitive to stock prices when capital markets are rational, but subject to imperfections such as debt overhang, information asymmetries, and financial distress costs. Our empirical tests support the rational (but imperfect) capital markets view. Specifically, investment–stock price sensitivity is related to firm leverage, financial slack, and probability of financial distress, but is not related to proxies for firm undervaluation. Because, in our model, stock prices reflect the net present values (NPVs) of investment opportunities, our results are consistent with rational capital markets improving the allocation of capital by channeling more funds to firms with positive NPV projects.

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