scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2012 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Heeho Kim ◽  
◽  
SaeWoon Park ◽  
Sun Hye Lee ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
High Price ◽  
Subprime Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Price Escalation ◽  
Housing Submarket

This paper studies the abnormal price behavior of Kangnam, a premium (high price) housing submarket in Seoul, Korea, which addresses the correlation between house prices, bank lending, and other factors, including income. Kangnam experienced the most dramatic price escalation during the study period (1999-2009) despite Korean government policies to stabilize house prices in 2005 and the U.S. subprime crisis in 2008. The empirical result shows that even though the house price in a premium market is, to some degree, positively influenced by income, it is not affected by bank lending in the short-run while negatively affected in the long-run. This suggests that a premium housing submarket has a peculiar price dynamics of its own unlike the other submarkets which seem to comply more or less with our notion of a general economic theory, especially in terms of house prices and bank lending.

Housing Prices and Money Demand: Empirical Evidence in Selected MENA Countries

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadia Mbazia ◽  
Mouldi Djelassi
Keyword(s):  
Money Demand ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Demand Model ◽  
Mena Countries ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Dynamic Relationships

Abstract This paper examines the links between housing and money empirically in a money demand framework for a panel of five Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries using quarterly data from 2007Q3 to 2014Q4 with the inclusion of house prices as a variable representing the developments in housing markets. We applied the Pool Mean Group Estimation technique to estimate the long-run and short-run dynamic relationships in money demand model. Empirical results provide the evidence that higher house prices lead to a rise in M2 demand in long-run and short-run estimations. This finding may explain the importance influence of the house price developments on monetary policy in MENA countries. The results confirm that the cross-country heterogeneity of money holdings is also connected with structural features of the housing market.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of House Price Bubble: A Case Study on Malaysia

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 127
Author(s):  
Fong Kean Yan ◽  
Yap Lya Keng ◽  
Kwek Kien Teng
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Price Bubble ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Residential Properties ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
House Price Bubble

The main objective of this research is to investigate the relationship between house price with macroeconomics variables - Gross Domestic Product per capita, inflation rate, Base Lending Rate and amount of household loan disbursed for purchase of residential properties. We try to use these variables to examine if they could trigger a housing bubble to burst in Malaysia. Granger Causality results show that there is univariate relationship from house price to Gross Domestic Product per capita. Though house price and other macroeconomics variables do not Granger–cause each other in short run, but these variables are cointegrated in the long run, i.e. there is no evidence of house price bubble in Malaysia. We suggest that soaring house prices in Malaysia is being supported by the large inflow of foreign funds into the housing sector and the unresponsive supply of houses.

Housing Bubble in Penang Prediction and Determinants

2015 ◽  
Vol 73 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Loh Yun Lu ◽  
Janice YM Lee ◽  
Usama Al-mulali ◽  
Nurul Afiqah Ahmad ◽  
Izran Sarrazin Mohammad
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
House Price ◽  
Decomposition Analysis ◽  
Ordinary Least Squares ◽  
Housing Bubble ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

House prices in Malaysian cities increased drastically in the past few years, notably in the state of Penang.  The existence of a housing bubble is speculated by major property players. This paper ascertains whether a housing bubble exists in Penang and explores the long-run and short-run determinants of Penang residential prices. Quarterly data (2000Q1 to 2012Q2) of House Price Index is the dependent variable and Gross Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Base Lending Rate (BLR) and Housing Supply as independent variables. Econometric model together with fully modified Ordinary Least Squares regression were used to detect the presence of housing bubble in Penang. The determinants of Penang house prices are based on Granger causality and variance decomposition analysis using the vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The results show no evidence of housing bubble in Penang housing market. CPI has both long-run and short run causality relationship with house prices while CPI and BLR explain a large part of housing price variance. Results show changes in inflation and cost of borrowing will greatly affect Penang house prices.  

scholarly journals Understanding the short- and long-run relationship between vacant allotment and established house prices

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 200-217 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Rossini ◽  
Valerie Kupke
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Land Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
A Site ◽  
Urban Land Market

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to address a key issue fundamental to the operation of land and housing markets, that is, the relationship between land and house prices. The study identifies possible causation between established house and vacant allotment prices using the metropolitan area of Adelaide, Australia as a case study. Design/methodology/approach – A key outcome of the study is the construction of a Site Adjusted Land Price Index against which a Quality Adjusted House Price Index is compared. Findings – The results show that there is a lagged effect of land prices on house prices and that this is significant at an interval of eight lag periods. The results also imply that the lead lag relationship between established house and vacant allotment prices is not unidirectional. This suggests that, while a change in house prices leads to a change in land prices in the short-run, the long-run position is for increasing land prices to lead to a delayed increase in house prices. Research limitations/implications – Rising house prices do not simply and solely reflect a shortage of land. There are suggested effects both immediate from house to land and delayed from land to house, particularly in a rising market. Originality/value – The lead lag relationships of both indexes are tested using Granger causality estimates to assess whether theoretical Ricardian concepts still hold in a modern urban land market.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 65-106
Author(s):  
Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee ◽  
◽  
Seyed Ghodsi ◽  
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Asymmetric Effects ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The U.S

Since oil is used as an input in the production and delivery process, any change in its price can affect almost all sectors of an economy. Researchers have tried to assess the impact of the rising price of oil on domestic production, inflation, investment, the stock market, etc. In order to determine if inflationary effects of rising oil prices have spread to house prices in the U.S., unlike previous research, we investigate the link between oil prices and house prices by using data from each state of the U.S. Furthermore, for the first time, we engage in asymmetry analysis and find short-run asymmetric effects in almost all of the states but short-run cumulative effects or asymmetric impact in 15 states. Although we also find significant long-run asymmetric effects in 26 states, the results reveal that an increase in oil prices has contributed to house price increase in only 11 states and a decrease in oil prices lowered house prices in only three states.

scholarly journals U.K. House Prices: Bubbles or Market Efficiency? Evidence from Regional Analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 54 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Wu ◽  
Nicole Lux
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
House Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Price Bubbles ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Price Growth ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Recent Financial Crisis

This paper studies U.K. regional house prices across nine regions from January 2005 to December 2017 to identify regional versus national effects on house prices and potential house price bubbles. It uses a version of the Gordon dividend discount model, modelling house prices as the present value of imputed rents as a measure of fundamentals. It differentiates between long-term and short-term effect using pooled mean group (PMG) and mean group estimation (MG) to determine variations in regional house prices during different periods relating to the most recent financial crisis. The results confirm that the crisis had differentiating effects in the short term, but there is reversion back to long-run fundamentals. Regional trend analysis shows that the house price growth in the regions has been affected differently in the short run and each region has varying long-run fundamentals. Residential property values in London have shown strongest short-run momentum.

scholarly journals Differing house price linkages across UK regions: A multi-dimensional recursive ripple model

Urban Studies ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 55 (8) ◽  
pp. 1636-1654 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Hudson ◽  
John Hudson ◽  
Bruce Morley
Keyword(s):  
House Prices ◽  
Complex Structure ◽  
House Price ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The aim of this study is to determine the nature of the relationship between house prices of different types of housing across the UK regions. We use an Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach to determine the long-run relationships between house prices as well as an error correction model to estimate the short-run dynamics between house prices. The data include house prices across the regions of Great Britain and for new, old and modern houses. The results suggest that house price shocks ripple across regions, although the nature of the relationship varies across housing types. We further simulate the impact of house price shocks and reveal a complex structure whereby a house price shock in region A impacts upon prices in other regions, which in turn feedback into region A in a recursive ripple.

scholarly journals House Price Forecasting from Investment Perspectives

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (10) ◽  
pp. 1009
Author(s):  
Song Shi ◽  
Vince Mangioni ◽  
Xin Janet Ge ◽  
Shanaka Herath ◽  
Fethi Rabhi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Market Dynamics ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Investment Theory ◽  
Investment Demand ◽  
Long Run

Housing market dynamics have primarily shifted from consumption- to investment-driven in many countries, including Australia. Building on investment theory, we investigated market dynamics by placing investment demand at the center using the error correction model (ECM). We found that house prices, rents, and interest rates are cointegrated in the long run under the present value investment framework. Other economic factors such as population growth, unemployment, migration, construction activities, and bank lending were also important determinants of the housing market dynamics. Our forecasting results show that the Sydney housing market will continue to grow with no significant price decline in the foreseeable future.

Dampak Insentif Pajak Perumahan Terhadap Potensi Penerimaan Pajak Negara Dan Peningkatan Pendapatan Masyarakat : Kasus Provinsi Papua

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-22
Author(s):  
Towaf Totok Irawan
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Tax Incentives ◽  
High Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Primary Input ◽  
State Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

Until now the government and private sector have not been able to address the backlog of 13.5 million housing units for ownership status and 7.6 million units for residential status. The high price of land has led to the high price of the house so that low-income communities (MBR) is not able to reach out to make a home purchase. In addition to the high price of land, tax factors also contribute to the high price of the house. The government plans to issue a policy for the provision of tax incentives, ie abolish VAT on home-forming material transaction. This policy is expected to house prices become cheaper, so the demand for housing increases, and encourage the relevant sectors to intensify its role in the construction of houses. It is expected to replace the lost tax potential and increase incomes. Analysis of the impact of tax incentives housing to potential state revenue and an increase in people's income, especially in Papua province is using the table IO because in addition to looking at the role each sector can also see the impact on taxes (income tax 21 Pph 25 Pph, VAT), and incomes (wage). Although in the short-term impact is still small, but very rewarding in the long run. Keywords: Backlog, Gross Input, Primary Input, Intermediate Input

scholarly journals Money and credit during normal times and house price booms: evidence from time-frequency analysis

Empirica ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 47 (4) ◽  
pp. 835-861
Author(s):  
Maciej Ryczkowski
Keyword(s):  
Great Recession ◽  
House Prices ◽  
House Price ◽  
Industrialized Countries ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Price Boom ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run

Abstract I analyse the link between money and credit for twelve industrialized countries in the time period from 1970 to 2016. The euro area and Commonwealth Countries have rather strong co-movements between money and credit at longer frequencies. Denmark and Switzerland show weak and episodic effects. Scandinavian countries and the US are somewhere in between. I find strong and significant longer run co-movements especially around booming house prices for all of the sample countries. The analysis suggests the expansionary policy that cleans up after the burst of a bubble may exacerbate the risk of a new house price boom. The interrelation is hidden in the short run, because the co-movements are then rarely statistically significant. According to the wavelet evidence, developments of money and credit since the Great Recession or their decoupling in Japan suggest that it is more appropriate to examine the two variables separately in some circumstances.

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