scholarly journals Real exchange rate and trade balance of Pakistan: an empirical analysis

2013 ◽  
Vol 01 (01) ◽  
pp. 44-51
Author(s):  
Muhammad Bilal Saeed ◽  
Ijaz Hussain
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Balance Error

This study evaluates the relationship between real exchange rate and trade balance prevailed in Pakistan during the 1985-2010 period. Engel Granger residual based and Johansen Juselius tests have been used to inquire into the long term connection between exchange rate and trade balance. Error correction model is then employed to study the short term connection. It has been discovered that there exists a connection between real exchange rate and trade balance in long as well as short run. The evidences set forth lead to a decisive conclusion that Marshall Lerner Condition and J curve effect both hold in case of Pakistan.

scholarly journals The Impact of Exchange Rate on Market Fundamentals: A Case Study of J-curve Effect in Vietnam

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nguyen Quang My ◽  
Mustafa Sayim ◽  
Hamid Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect

This study examines if there is an equilibrium relationship between gross domestic product (GDP), exchange rate fluctuation and trade balance in long-term and short-term in Vietnam. The results show that the short-term and long-term exchange rate fluctuations impact the trade balance in Vietnam; both ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) and ECM (Error Correction Model) methodologies implied that exchange rate has a statistically negatively impact on the trade balance. Particularly, Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) utilized to test the long -term impact, shows the trade balance deficit becomes worse when the REER (real effective exchange rate) increases. ECM (Error Correction Model) equation based on the long-term cointegration equation and impulse response, reveals that the domestic currency devaluation could not improve the trade balance, indicating that the J-curve effect does not hold on the dong, the currency of Vietnam.

The Effect of Exchange Rates on Trade Balance: An Empirical Study of Morocco

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 01-10
Author(s):  
Hicham Sadok
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Foreign Trade ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Strong Impact ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The Relationship

Objective - This paper aims to examine the relationship between exchange rates and trade balance in Morocco, to investigate whether the Marshall-Lerner condition and J-curve exist. Methodology/Technique - This paper attempts to identify the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade balance in Morocco between 2000 an 2015. Findings - Historically, exchange rates have had a strong impact on foreign trade in Morocco. Novelty - This study concludes that the fluctuation of exchange rates has no notable impact on the rate of foreign trade. Type of Paper: Empirical. Keywords: Exchange Rates; Trade Balance; Exports; Imports; Morocco. JEL Classification: D51, D59.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Persistence of j Curve Phenomenon in the Bilateral Trade between Bangladesh and USA: The ARDL Bounds Testing Approach and Granger Causality Analysis

2021 ◽  
pp. 74-81
Author(s):  
Subroto Dey ◽  
Homamul Islam
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Short Run

Most of the previously examined studies that investigated the repercussion of the trade balance to exchange rate mutation relied on the assumption that appreciation and depreciation behave symmetrically, recently several works have been conducted using the asymmetric analysis. In this work, we exhibited a model employing the disaggregated data (bilateral) of trade balance with the USA. In our pursuit, we endeavored to disclose a phenomenon of the J curve, is this pattern present in our trade balance and exchange rate bearing? In this article, first, we checked the stationary of data set and discovered the stationary employing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, Phillips Peron then applying the ARDL bounds test of cointegration apropos to find out the long run co integrated equations and last of all, tried to investigate the short-run and long-run relationship among the variables, while we used the ECM (error correction model). The Toda-Yamamoto Procedure for Granger Causality in a VAR framework has been applied to detect the causal direction. In our model, we have blazoned the negative short-run rapport between the exchange rate and trade balance in the bilateral data, whereas we have remarked a discrepant bearing in the long run and we did receive the evidence of the appearance of j pattern in the relationship between exchange rate and trade balance. Dispensing the error correction model, we found domestic higher price level hinders the trade balance in the short run, did not find any evidence of foreign income stimulate the export. Toda-Yamamoto Procedure for Granger Causality reveals the unidirectional causal effect from exchange rate to trade balance of Bangladesh with the USA.

Investigating the Relationship between Trade Balance and the Exchange Rate: The Case of Laos’ Trade with Thailand

2018 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 590-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Phouphet Kyophilavong ◽  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Ijaz Ur Rehman ◽  
Somchith Souksavath ◽  
Sengchanh Chanthasene
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Policy ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
The Real ◽  
J Curve ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

We investigate the nexus between Laos’ trade balance and its real exchange rate with Thailand. We apply the combined cointegration approach and find that the trade balance and the real exchange rate have cointegration. The devaluation of Laos’ Kip improves the trade balance, but there is no evidence of the J-curve phenomenon. Laos’s economic growth causes its trade balance to deteriorate. A rise in Thai income increases the trade balance of Laos. This study presents new insights for policymakers who seek to sustain trade with Thailand by designing a comprehensive trade policy.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE INDONESIAN SYARIAH STOCK INDEX (ISSI) ON THE INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE (IDX)

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 26
Author(s):  
Siska Angriani Hasibuan ◽  
Armin Rahmansyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Variable Amount ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI) is an indicator that can be used by investors to know the movements of the sharia stock market. This research aims to analyze the effect of the Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI) on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). The analysis uses equations by the method of Error Correction Model (ECM). This study analyzed the relationship between the dependent and independent variables in both the short term and long term. Estimation results show that in the long term and the short term, the variable amount of the inflation was a positif and significant in the short term but not significant in the long term affect the Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI). The variable amount of the BI rate and exchange rate was a negative and significant in the short term but not significant in the long term affect the Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI). These results show that inflation, BI rate and exchange rate was significant in the short term affect the Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI) on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX).

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING THE INDONESIAN SYARIAH STOCK INDEX (ISSI) ON THE INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE (IDX)

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siska Angriani Hasibuan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Variable Amount ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Independent Variables ◽  
The Relationship

The Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI) is an indicator that can be used by investors to know the movements of the sharia stock market. This research aims to analyze the effect of the Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI) on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX). The analysis uses equations by the method of Error Correction Model (ECM). This study analyzed the relationship between the dependent and independent variables in both the short term and long term. Estimation results show that in the long term and the short term, the variable amount of the inflation was a positif and significant in the short term but not significant in the long term affect the Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI). The variable amount of the BI rate and exchange rate was a negative and significant in the short term but not significant in the long term affect the Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI). These results show that inflation, BI rate and exchange rate was significant in the short term affect the Indonesian Syariah Stock Index (ISSI) on the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX).

scholarly journals Associative Study on Government Spending, Inflation, Trade Balance, and Gross Domestic Product

2020 ◽  
Vol 15 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Agus Eko Sujianto ◽  
Muhammad Fajar Ulil Azmi
Keyword(s):  
Government Spending ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Negative Slope ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Macroeconomic Indicators ◽  
Short Run

Specifically, this study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic indicators namely government spending, inflation and trade balance on PDB. The observation period from 1981-2017 is based on International Monetary Fund (IMF) documentation. Data analysis using the Error Correction Model (ECM). The results of the study: (1) in the short term and long term government spending significantly influence PDB; (2) in the short-run and long-run inflation affects PDB in the opposite way; (3) in the short term PDB is not affected by the trade balance, whereas in the long run the trade balance variable also has no effect on PDB with a negative slope and (4) the results of simultaneous tests of government expenditure, inflation, and the trade balance affect PDB.

Turkish tourism, exchange rates and income

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-77 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gokhan H. Akay ◽  
Atilla Cifter ◽  
Ozdemir Teke
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
J Curve ◽  
Curve Effect ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Maximum Likelihood Technique

This study examines the effects of the exchange rate and income on Turkish tourism trade balance (TB) using quarterly data for the period 1998–2011. The authors use tourism trade-weighted exchange rate indices and foreign income derived from country-based tourism trade. They employ Johansen’s maximum likelihood technique to estimate the long-run effects of the exchange rate and income on tourism, and employ an error correction model to analyse the short-run effects. The empirical results suggest that income is the most significant variable in explaining tourism TB in the long run. The exchange rate and foreign income positively affect the TB, while domestic income negatively influences it. In the short-run, however, domestic income is the only significant factor. The authors also find no evidence of a J-curve effect in the Turkish tourism TB. These findings are robust to using nominal values.

scholarly journals DAMPAK PENERAPAN INDONESIA-JAPAN ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA KE JEPANG

Media Ekonomi ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Izma Khairanisa Harahap ◽  
Astrid Maria Esther
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Significant Influence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Economic Partnership Agreement ◽  
Economic Partnership ◽  
Partnership Agreement ◽  
The Relationship

<em>This thesis is discussing about the effect of Indonesia Japan Economic Partnership agreement application for Indonesia's export to Japan in the period from 1991:1 until 2013:4. The variables which used is export, GDP, REER FDI exchange rate between Indonesia and Japan. The method which used in this thesis is Error Correction Model (ECM) model. The purpose of this research is to know about the relationship between export, GDP, REER and FDI also the influence of that variables in short term or long term. In addition, the purpose of this research also to know about how far the influence of Indoesia’s participation in Indonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement Indonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement. The result from ECM method, obtained that Indonesia's participation in Indonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement Indonesia Japan Economic Partnership Agreement doesn't have influence in short term or long term. And Japan's GDP variables that have the most significant influence in Indonesia's export to Japan develop</em>

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan-Ochir Doojav
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J-curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk. JEL Classification: C32, C51, F14, F32

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