scholarly journals Stability Analysis of Mathematical Model of a Relapse Tuberculosis Incorporating Vaccination

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 116-130
Author(s):  
O. Odetunde ◽  
◽  
M.O. Ibrahim ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Medical Attention ◽  
Infectious Individual ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Tuberculosis Disease

A general SIQRM epidemic model with vaccination and relapse possibility is proposed for analysis in this work. The idea behind the proposed model is to check the effect of immunity obtained from vaccine or treatment, quarantine effect as well as waning effect of immunity on the transmission rate of Tuberculosis within a population that is subjected to proper education without restricted access. Some other infectious diseases in this category include measles and Ebola. Two equilibrium states of the proposed model are obtained as well as the effective reproduction number(Reff). Stability analysis of the model at the Infection Free Equilibrium(I.F.E) state is established on the condition that Reff<1. Numerical simulation for the general SIQRM model was done using specific data for Tuberculosis disease and the result shows that proper education, vaccination and early diagnosis of an infectious individual for quarantining is an efficient way by which the spread of Tuberculosis can be reduced in the population while adequate medical attention yield better result for detected cases

scholarly journals DYNAMICS OF ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTIONTHROUGH VEHICLES

2020 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Nita Shah ◽  
Shreya Patel ◽  
Moksha Satia ◽  
Foram Thakkar
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Equilibrium Points ◽  
System Stability ◽  
System Stability Analysis ◽  
Almost All ◽  
Day By Day

In today’s time as air pollution is increasing day by day the use of non-polluted has to be increased in almost all nooks and corner of the countries. In this paper a mathematical model is developed to analyse environmental pollution through polluted and non-polluted vehicles. Basic reproduction number has been calculated which will the decide the behavior of the system. Stability analysis has been carried out at equilibrium points. Numerical simulation is done to analyse the result for various compartments.

scholarly journals Mathematical Assessment of the Dynamical Model of Smoking Tobacco Epidemic in Bangladesh

2020 ◽  
pp. 36-48
Author(s):  
Sk. Abdus Samad ◽  
Md. Tusberul Islam ◽  
Sayed Toufiq Hossain Tomal ◽  
MHA Biswas
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Differential Equations ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Conversion Rate ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
The World ◽  
Tobacco Epidemic ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

Bangladesh is one of the largest tobacco users in the world being troubled by smoking related issues. In this paper we consider a compartmental mathematical model of smoking in which the population is divided into five compartments: susceptible, expose, smokers, temporary quitters and permanent quitters described by ordinary differential equations. We study by including the conversion rate from light smoker to permanent quit smokers. The basic reproduction number R0 has been derived and then we found two euilibria of the model one of them is smoking-free and other of them is smoking-present. We establish the positivity, boundedness of the solutions and perform stability analysis of the model. To decrease the smoking propensity in Bangladesh we perform numerical simulation for various estimations of parameters which offer understanding to give up smoking and how they influence the smoker and exposed class. This model gives us legitimate thought regarding the explanations for the spread of smoking in Bangladesh.

MATHEMATICAL ANALYSIS OF THE ENDEMIC EQUILIBRIUM OF MALARIAHYGIENE MODEL

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oluwafemi Temidayo J. ◽  
Azuaba E. ◽  
Lasisi N. O.
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Endemic Equilibrium ◽  
The Mathematical Model ◽  
Globally Stable ◽  
Well Posed ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Invariant Principle

In this study, we analyzed the endemic equilibrium point of a malaria-hygiene mathematical model. We prove that the mathematical model is biological and meaningfully well-posed. We also compute the basic reproduction number using the next generation method. Stability analysis of the endemic equilibrium point show that the point is locally stable if reproduction number is greater that unity and globally stable by the Lasalle’s invariant principle. Numerical simulation to show the dynamics of the compartment at various hygiene rate was carried out.

scholarly journals Mathematical Analysis of Influenza A Dynamics in the Emergence of Drug Resistance

2018 ◽  
Vol 2018 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caroline W. Kanyiri ◽  
Kimathi Mark ◽  
Livingstone Luboobi
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Drug Resistance ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Critical Value ◽  
Backward Bifurcation ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
High Morbidity

Every year, influenza causes high morbidity and mortality especially among the immunocompromised persons worldwide. The emergence of drug resistance has been a major challenge in curbing the spread of influenza. In this paper, a mathematical model is formulated and used to analyze the transmission dynamics of influenza A virus having incorporated the aspect of drug resistance. The qualitative analysis of the model is given in terms of the control reproduction number,Rc. The model equilibria are computed and stability analysis carried out. The model is found to exhibit backward bifurcation prompting the need to lowerRcto a critical valueRc∗for effective disease control. Sensitivity analysis results reveal that vaccine efficacy is the parameter with the most control over the spread of influenza. Numerical simulations reveal that despite vaccination reducing the reproduction number below unity, influenza still persists in the population. Hence, it is essential, in addition to vaccination, to apply other strategies to curb the spread of influenza.

Mathematical model for smoking: Effect of determination and education

2015 ◽  
Vol 08 (01) ◽  
pp. 1550001 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anuradha Yadav ◽  
Prashant K. Srivastava ◽  
Anuj Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Smoking Behavior ◽  
Threshold Value ◽  
Educational Programs ◽  
Feasible Region ◽  
Quit Smoking ◽  
Positivity And Boundedness

We propose and analyze mathematical models to study the dynamics of smoking behavior under the influence of educational programs and also individual's determination to quit smoking. We establish the positivity and boundedness of the solutions in a biologically feasible region. A threshold value responsible for persistence of smoking is obtained and stability analysis on models is performed. We find that determination alone is not enough to eradicate smoking but it can reduce the prevalence of smoker population. Whereas the increase in education can possibly eradicate it. We performed numerical simulation for representative set of parameters to verify and discuss results obtained analytically.

scholarly journals A Mathematical Model of COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Bangkok, Thailand

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Pakwan Riyapan ◽  
Sherif Eneye Shuaib ◽  
Arthit Intarasit
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Globally Asymptotically Stable ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Next Generation Matrix ◽  
Disease Free ◽  
The Basic Reproduction Number

In this study, we propose a new mathematical model and analyze it to understand the transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangkok, Thailand. It is divided into seven compartmental classes, namely, susceptible S , exposed E , symptomatically infected I s , asymptomatically infected I a , quarantined Q , recovered R , and death D , respectively. The next-generation matrix approach was used to compute the basic reproduction number denoted as R cvd 19 of the proposed model. The results show that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R cvd 19 < 1 . On the other hand, the global asymptotic stability of the endemic equilibrium occurs if R cvd 19 > 1 . The mathematical analysis of the model is supported using numerical simulations. Moreover, the model’s analysis and numerical results prove that the consistent use of face masks would go on a long way in reducing the COVID-19 pandemic.

CONVENTIONAL MODELLING APPROACH TO PREDICT THE DYNAMICS OF COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 470-476
Author(s):  
S Bashir ◽  
I. Z. Shehu ◽  
N. Chinenye
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Stability Analysis ◽  
Basic Reproduction Number ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Modelling Approach

The study examined transmission dynamics of COVID-19 with conventional modelling approach. We developed a mathematical model for COVID-19 pandemic as SEQIR where I, the infected compartment is partitioned in to  and for reported and unreported group of infected individuals. Basic reproduction number has been obtained and the stability analysis was carried out. The results revealed that the disease may die out in time

scholarly journals Inhomogeneous Transmission and Asynchronic Mixing in the Spread of COVID-19 Epidemics

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos I. Mendoza
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Epidemiological Models ◽  
Subexponential Growth ◽  
The Public ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
Mitigation Policies

The ongoing epidemic of COVID-19 first found in China has reinforced the need to develop epidemiological models capable of describing the progression of the disease to be of use in the formulation of mitigation policies. Here, this problem is addressed using a metapopulation approach to consider the inhomogeneous transmission of the spread arising from a variety of reasons, like the distribution of local epidemic onset times or of the transmission rates. We show that these contributions can be incorporated into a susceptible-infected-recovered framework through a time-dependent transmission rate. Thus, the reproduction number decreases with time despite the population dynamics remaining uniform and the depletion of susceptible individuals is small. The obtained results are consistent with the early subexponential growth observed in the cumulated number of confirmed cases even in the absence of containment measures. We validate our model by describing the evolution of COVID-19 using real data from different countries, with an emphasis in the case of Mexico, and show that it also correctly describes the longtime dynamics of the spread. The proposed model yet simple is successful at describing the onset and progression of the outbreak, and considerably improves the accuracy of predictions over traditional compartmental models. The insights given here may prove to be useful to forecast the extent of the public health risks of the epidemics, thus improving public policy-making aimed at reducing such risks.

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