scholarly journals The Case for Gold Revisited: A Safe Haven Or A Hedge ?

2012 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudi Apak ◽  
Vedat Akman ◽  
Serkan Çankaya ◽  
Sıtkı Sonmezer
Keyword(s):  
Econometric Analysis ◽  
Canadian Dollar ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
Sample Period ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Relationship

This paper attempts to analyze the relation among gold prices and other macroeconomic and financial variables and addresses the question whether gold is a safe haven or a hedge for investors. The study investigates the relationship by using an econometric analysis for top gold exporter and importer countries, for a sample period of 11 years from 2000 to 2011. The results are twofold (i) return of silver, USD returns and change in the volatility index influences gold returns positively whereas, Swiss Franc and Canadian Dollar returns influence gold returns negatively regardless of presence of the 2008 crisis. (ii) In times of stress, our findings indicate that Swiss Franc, Norwegian Krone and Canadian Dollar function as haven whereas, on average, Swiss Franc, Canadian Dollar and 10 year US treasuries function as a hedge against gold but the results show no evidence for the US dollar.  

scholarly journals Safe Haven Currencies

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 579-591
Keyword(s):  
Financial Risk ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Japanese Yen ◽  
The Stability ◽  
Safe Haven Currency

As other safe haven assets, safe haven currencies are sought by investors to mitigate financial risk when economic turbulence hits. Three major safe haven currencies are the US dollar (USD), the Japanese yen (JPY) and the Swiss franc (CHF). The euro is now in competition as an alternative safe haven currency. US dollar will remain the best safe haven currency in the short term and the best investment currency in the medium term. In every uncertainty of the US equity market as well as in the case of a decline of the US dollar, the investor may consider investing in a safe haven currency like the yen or the Swiss franc. Given the stability of Swiss government and financial system of the country, the increased foreign demand for the currency usually pushes the Swiss franc upward. There are number of factors, characterizing the dynamics in which the investors fall, rushing to the Japanese yen during periods of global risk aversion. Traders looked for refuge in the cryptocurrency because they cannot find refuge elsewhere.

scholarly journals The US banking system: does the size of the institution matter to its economic-financial situation?

2020 ◽  
pp. 19-19
Author(s):  
José Alejandro Fernández Fernández ◽  
Virginia Vázquez ◽  
Juan Antonio Vicente Virseda
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Moral Hazard ◽  
Deposit Insurance ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Factorial Analysis ◽  
Financial Situation ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The Us ◽  
Federal Deposit Insurance ◽  
The Relationship

This paper analyzes the relationship between the size of the entities in the US banking system and their economic-financial situation. The objective of this study is to group different economic and financial variables of the entities together into factors that characterize the US banking system and identify and identify how the factors vary according to the size of the entities. To do this, we start from the values taken by 32 economic-financial and regulatory ratios, obtained directly from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), for a period between the first quarter of 1990 and the penultimate of 2016. With this data it is performed a factorial analysis that allows synthesizing the 32 variables in 7 factors and, at the same time, obtaining relationships between these variables and the size and between themselves. Finally, through a neural network, the previous factors are hierarchized according to the influence that the size of the entities exerts on them. Among the conclusions reached, it should be noted that the loan structure is the factor that best classifies the size. It also determines the existence of a negative ?profitability-solvency? relationship with larger entities, (Assets> $ 250 B.) and smaller ones (Assets <$ 100 M.), as well as demonstrating the existence of moral hazard and the need for regulation that limits said risk (because the largest entities are the least solvent and assume the most risks).

scholarly journals Performance Of Deterministic And Stochastic Trends Models In Forecasting The Behavior Of The Canadian Dollar And The Japanese Yen Against The US Dollar

2011 ◽  
Vol 5 (12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Arav Ouandlous
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Canadian Dollar ◽  
Forecast Performance ◽  
Stochastic Trends ◽  
The Us ◽  
Modeling And Forecasting ◽  
Rate Behavior ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Exchange Rate Models ◽  
Japanese Yen

The literature on modeling and forecasting exchange rate behavior shows that complex forecasting exchange rate models do not often outperform ARIMA models. We show that the same forecasting models applied to forecast the behavior of the Canadian dollar and the Japanese Yen against the US dollar produced varying forecast performance.

scholarly journals Much Appreciated? The Rise of the Canadian Dollar, 2002-2008

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Michael B. Devereux
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Real Exchange Rates ◽  
Large Change ◽  
Canadian Dollar ◽  
Historical Background ◽  
Empirical Literature ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Us Dollar

Between 2002 and 2008, the Canadian dollar appreciated in real terms against the US dollar by 60 percent. This large change in real exchange rates between such major trading partners as Canada and the US is almost unprecedented. This paper explores the historical background to the movement of the Canadian dollar during this period, discusses the most accepted explanations for the appreciation, and speculates on the implications for the Canadian economy. The discussion is placed within the framework of recent developments in the theoretical and empirical literature on exchange rates.

Quick NAFTA deal is unlikely

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
The United States ◽  
Canadian Dollar ◽  
Industrial Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Trading Partners ◽  
Us Dollar

Subject NAFTA update. Significance Negotiators from Canada, Mexico and the United States will reconvene this month to address major disagreements on critical NAFTA provisions. The meeting will give negotiators their first opportunity to take stock of their governments' respective positions in the aftermath of Mexico's elections, the recent imposition of key US import tariffs and the retaliatory measures taken by US trading partners. While the grounds for agreement exist, the chances of a rapid conclusion are remote. Impacts Trade uncertainty will hit prospects for industrial growth, earnings, cash flow and investment across North America. The Canadian dollar and the peso are likely to remain weak against the US dollar throughout 2018. The threat of new US auto tariffs may hasten agreement on NAFTA auto provisions, giving Trump an early negotiating victory.

Application of grey relational analysis and artificial neural networks on currency exchange-traded notes (ETNs)

2020 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jo-Hui Chen ◽  
John Francis T. Diaz
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Grey Relational Analysis ◽  
Stock Index ◽  
Forecasting Accuracy ◽  
Relational Analysis ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Grey Relational

AbstractThis study determines which index has the strongest influence on the exchange-trade note (ETN) returns using the grey relational analysis. Results show that the volatility index is the strongest, followed by the S&P 500 stock index, the US dollar index, the CRB index, the Trade index, and the Brent crude oil index. However, the US dollar index has the most significant effect of using the index values of currency ETNs, followed by the S&P 500 stock index, volatility index, Brent crude oil index, the CRB index, and Trade index. This study applies four types of the artificial neural network model, namely, back-propagation neural network (BPN), recurrent neural network (RNN), time-delay recurrent neural network (TDRNN), and radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) to capture the nonlinear tendencies of ETNs for better forecasting accuracy. The paper finds that the RNN and RBFNN models have stronger predictive power among the models, and provides the highest forecasting accuracy for the majority of the currency ETNs. However, the RNN model consistently shows that the low grey relational grades (GRG) variables have the strongest influence on the ETN returns, compared with combining all and high GRG variables. These findings suggest that fund managers and traders can potentially rely on both RNN and RBFNN models, particularly the former, in their applications in financial time-series modeling.

The relationship between Brazilian Real and the US Dollar after corporate governance

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 193
Author(s):  
Fabio Gallo Garcia ◽  
Ricardo Batista Cândido ◽  
Elmo Tambosi Filho
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Governance ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Relationship

scholarly journals Fluctuations in the Swiss Franc: What Has Changed Since the Euro's Introduction?

2002 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-159 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas M. Fischer
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Swiss Franc ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Shed Light

The monetary implications arising from EMU for Swiss monetary policy show up primarily in the exchange rate. As of yet, fluctuations in the Swiss franc against the euro have been surprisingly moderate. The Swiss franc has thus tracked the euro's decline against the US dollar without experiencing strong inflationary pressures and a convergence in the interest-rate differential: a paradoxical result for a small open economy. This paper examines critically whether the recent record reveals information about a change in SNB monetary policy. It also attempts to shed light on the SNB's ability to implement an independent monetary policy with the new landscape defined by EMU. Four hypotheses of euro tracking are considered.

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