The modelled liquid water balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Abstract. Recent studies indicate that the surface mass balance will dominate the Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) contribution to 21st century sea level rise. Consequently, it is crucial to understand the liquid water balance (LWB) of the ice sheet and its response to increasing surface melt. We therefore analyse a firn simulation conducted with SNOWPACK for the GrIS and over the period 1960–2014 with a special focus on the LWB and refreezing. An indirect evaluation of the simulated refreezing climate with GRACE and firn temperature observations indicate a good model performance. Results of the LWB analysis reveal a spatially uniform increase in surface melt during 1990–2014. As a response, refreezing and runoff also indicate positive trends for this period, where refreezing increases with only half the rate of runoff, which implies that the majority of the additional liquid input runs off the ice sheet. However, this pattern is spatially variable as e.g. in the southeastern part of the GrIS, most of the additional liquid input is buffered in the firn layer due to relatively high snowfall rates. The increase in modelled refreezing leads to a general decrease in firn air content and to a substantial increase in near-surface firn temperature in some regions. On the western side of the ice sheet, modelled firn temperature increases are highest in the lower accumulation zone and are primarily caused by the exceptional melt season of 2012. On the eastern side, simulated firn temperature increases more gradually and with an associated upward migration of firn aquifers.