scholarly journals The modelled liquid water balance of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Author(s):  
Christian R. Steger ◽  
Carleen H. Reijmer ◽  
Michiel R. van den Broeke

Abstract. Recent studies indicate that the surface mass balance will dominate the Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) contribution to 21st century sea level rise. Consequently, it is crucial to understand the liquid water balance (LWB) of the ice sheet and its response to increasing surface melt. We therefore analyse a firn simulation conducted with SNOWPACK for the GrIS and over the period 1960–2014 with a special focus on the LWB and refreezing. An indirect evaluation of the simulated refreezing climate with GRACE and firn temperature observations indicate a good model performance. Results of the LWB analysis reveal a spatially uniform increase in surface melt during 1990–2014. As a response, refreezing and runoff also indicate positive trends for this period, where refreezing increases with only half the rate of runoff, which implies that the majority of the additional liquid input runs off the ice sheet. However, this pattern is spatially variable as e.g. in the southeastern part of the GrIS, most of the additional liquid input is buffered in the firn layer due to relatively high snowfall rates. The increase in modelled refreezing leads to a general decrease in firn air content and to a substantial increase in near-surface firn temperature in some regions. On the western side of the ice sheet, modelled firn temperature increases are highest in the lower accumulation zone and are primarily caused by the exceptional melt season of 2012. On the eastern side, simulated firn temperature increases more gradually and with an associated upward migration of firn aquifers.

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 2507-2526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christian R. Steger ◽  
Carleen H. Reijmer ◽  
Michiel R. van den Broeke

Abstract. Recent studies indicate that the surface mass balance will dominate the Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) contribution to 21st century sea level rise. Consequently, it is crucial to understand the liquid water balance (LWB) of the ice sheet and its response to increasing surface melt. We therefore analyse a firn simulation conducted with the SNOWPACK model for the GrIS and over the period 1960–2014 with a special focus on the LWB and refreezing. Evaluations of the simulated refreezing climate with GRACE and firn temperature observations indicate a good model–observation agreement. Results of the LWB analysis reveal a spatially uniform increase in surface melt (0.16 m w.e. a−1) during 1990–2014. As a response, refreezing and run-off also indicate positive changes during this period (0.05 and 0.11 m w.e. a−1, respectively), where refreezing increases at only half the rate of run-off, implying that the majority of the additional liquid input runs off the ice sheet. This pattern of refreeze and run-off is spatially variable. For instance, in the south-eastern part of the GrIS, most of the additional liquid input is buffered in the firn layer due to relatively high snowfall rates. Modelled increase in refreezing leads to a decrease in firn air content and to a substantial increase in near-surface firn temperature. On the western side of the ice sheet, modelled firn temperature increases are highest in the lower accumulation zone and are primarily caused by the exceptional melt season of 2012. On the eastern side, simulated firn temperature increases are more gradual and are associated with the migration of firn aquifers to higher elevations.


2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (6) ◽  
pp. 1191-1211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sebastian H. Mernild ◽  
Glen E. Liston ◽  
Christopher A. Hiemstra ◽  
Konrad Steffen

Abstract SnowModel, a physically based snow-evolution modeling system that includes four submodels—MicroMet, EnBal, SnowPack, and SnowTran-3D—was used to simulate variations in Greenland [including the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS)] surface snow and ice melt, as well as water balance components, for 1995–2005. Meteorological observations from 25 stations inside and outside the GrIS were used as model input. Winter and summer mass balance observations, spatial snow depth observations, and snowmelt depletion curves derived from time-lapse photography from the Mittivakkat and Zackenberg glacierized catchments in East Greenland were used to validate the performance of SnowModel. Model results compared well with observed values, confirming the robustness of the model. The yearly modeled GrIS interior nonmelt area differs from satellite observations by a maximum of ∼68 000 km2 (or ∼6%) in 2004, and the lowest uncertainties (<8000 km2, or <1%) occur for the years with the smallest (2005) and most extensive (1996) nonmelt areas. Modeled surface melt occurred at elevations reaching 2950 m MSL for 2005, while the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) fluctuates from 1640 to 600 m MSL. The modeled interannual variability in the nonmelt area also agrees with observation records (R2 = 0.96), yielding simulated GrIS nonmelt covers of 71% for 1996 and 50% for 2005. On average, the simulated nonmelt area decreased ∼6% from 1995 to 2005; this trend is similar to observed values. An average surface mass balance (SMB) storage of 138(±81) km3 yr−1, a GrIS loss of 257(±81) km3 yr−1, and a runoff contribution to the ocean of 392(±58) km3 yr−1 occurred for the period 1995–2005. Approximately 58% and 42% of the runoff came from the GrIS western and eastern drainage areas, respectively. The modeled average specific runoff from the GrIS was 6.71 s−1 km−2 yr−1, which, over the simulation period, represents a contribution of ∼1.1 mm yr−1 to global sea level rise.


2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (193) ◽  
pp. 869-878 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Fausto ◽  
Andreas P. Ahlstrøm ◽  
Dirk Van as ◽  
Sigfús J. Johnsen ◽  
Peter L. Langen ◽  
...  

AbstractSnowpack changes during the melt season are often not incorporated in modelling studies of the surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet. Densification of snow accelerates when meltwater is present, due to percolation and subsequent refreezing, and needs to be incorporated in ice-sheet models for ablation calculations. In this study, simple parameterizations to calculate surface melt, snow densification and meltwater retention are included as surface boundary conditions in a large-scale ice-sheet model of Greenland. Coupling the snow densification and meltwater-retention processes achieves a separation of volume and mass changes of the surface layer, in order to determine the surface melt contribution to runoff. Experiments for present-day conditions show that snow depth at the onset of melt, mean annual near-surface air temperature and the mean density of the annual snow layer are key factors controlling the quantity and spatial distribution of meltwater runoff above the equilibrium line on the Greenland ice sheet.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert S. Fausto ◽  
Dirk van As ◽  
Kenneth D. Mankoff ◽  
Baptiste Vandecrux ◽  
Michele Citterio ◽  
...  

Abstract. The Programme for Monitoring of the Greenland Ice Sheet (PROMICE) has been measuring climate and ice sheetproperties since 2007. Currently the PROMICE automatic weather station network includes 25 instrumented sites in Greenland.Accurate measurements of the surface and near-surface atmospheric conditions in a changing climate is important for reliablepresent and future assessment of changes to the Greenland ice sheet. Here we present the PROMICE vision, methodology,and each link in the production chain for obtaining and sharing quality-checked data. In this paper we mainly focus on thecritical components for calculating the surface energy balance and surface mass balance. A user-contributable dynamic webbaseddatabase of known data quality issues is associated with the data products at (https://github.com/GEUS-PROMICE/PROMICE-AWS-data-issues/). As part of the living data option, the datasets presented and described here are available atDOI: 10.22008/promice/data/aws, https://doi.org/10.22008/promice/data/aws (Fausto and van As, 2019).


2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 571-593
Author(s):  
Marion Donat-Magnin ◽  
Nicolas C. Jourdain ◽  
Christoph Kittel ◽  
Cécile Agosta ◽  
Charles Amory ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century.


2008 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 179-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. van den Broeke ◽  
P. Smeets ◽  
J. Ettema ◽  
C. van der Veen ◽  
R. van de Wal ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present four years (August 2003–August 2007) of surface mass balance data from the ablation zone of the west Greenland ice sheet along the 67° N latitude circle. Sonic height rangers and automatic weather stations continuously measured accumulation/ablation and near-surface climate at distances of 6, 38 and 88 km from the ice sheet margin at elevations of 490, 1020 and 1520 m a.s.l. Using a melt model and reasonable assumptions about snow density and percolation characteristics, these data are used to quantify the partitioning of energy and mass fluxes during melt episodes. The lowest site receives very little winter accumulation, and ice melting is nearly continuous in June, July and August. Due to the lack of snow accumulation, little refreezing occurs and virtually all melt energy is invested in runoff. Higher up the ice sheet, the ice sheet surface freezes up during the night, making summer melting intermittent. At the intermediate site, refreezing in snow consumes about 10% of the melt energy, increasing to 40% at the highest site. The sum of these effects is that total melt and runoff increase exponentially towards the ice sheet margin, each time doubling between the stations. At the two lower sites, we estimate that radiation penetration causes 20–30% of the ice melt to occur below the surface.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Achim Heilig ◽  
Olaf Eisen ◽  
Michael MacFerrin ◽  
Marco Tedesco ◽  
Xavier Fettweis

Abstract. Increasing melt over the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) recorded over the past years has resulted in significant changes of the percolation regime of the ice sheet. It remains unclear whether Greenland's percolation zone will act as meltwater buffer in the near future through gradually filling all pore space or if near-surface refreezing causes the formation of impermeable layers, which provoke lateral runoff. Homogeneous ice layers within perennial firn, as well as near-surface ice layers of several meter thickness are observable in firn cores. Because firn coring is a destructive method, deriving stratigraphic changes in firn and allocation of summer melt events is challenging. To overcome this deficit and provide continuous data for model evaluations on snow and firn density, temporal changes in liquid water content and depths of water infiltration, we installed an upward-looking radar system (upGPR) 3.4 m below the snow surface in May 2016 close to Camp Raven (66.4779° N/46.2856° W) at 2120 m a.s.l. The radar is capable to monitor quasi-continuously changes in snow and firn stratigraphy, which occur above the antennas. For summer 2016, we observed four major melt events, which routed liquid water into various depths beneath the surface. The last event in mid-August resulted in the deepest percolation down to about 2.3 m beneath the surface. Comparisons with simulations from the regional climate model MAR are in very good agreement in terms of seasonal changes in accumulation and timing of onset of melt. However, neither bulk density of near-surface layers nor the amounts of liquid water and percolation depths predicted by MAR correspond with upGPR data. Radar data and records of a nearby thermistor string, in contrast, matched very well, for both, timing and depth of temperature changes and observed water percolations. All four melt events transferred a cumulative mass of 56 kg/m2 into firn beneath the summer surface of 2015. We find that continuous observations of liquid water content, percolation depths and rates for the seasonal mass fluxes are sufficiently accurate to provide valuable information for validation of model approaches and help to develop a better understanding of liquid water retention and percolation in perennial firn.


2014 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 1453-1477 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Noël ◽  
X. Fettweis ◽  
W. J. van de Berg ◽  
M. R. van den Broeke ◽  
M. Erpicum

Abstract. During recent summers (2007–2012), several surface melt records were broken over the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). The extreme summer melt resulted in part from a persistent negative phase of the North-Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), favouring warmer than normal conditions over the GrIS. In addition, it has been suggested that significant anomalies in sea ice cover (SIC) and sea surface temperature (SST) may partially explain recent anomalous GrIS surface melt. To assess the impact of 2007–2012 SIC and SST anomalies on GrIS surface mass balance (SMB), a set of sensitivity experiments was carried out with the regional climate model MAR. These simulations suggest that changes in SST and SIC in the seas surrounding Greenland do not significantly impact GrIS SMB, due to the katabatic winds blocking effect. These winds are strong enough to prevent oceanic near-surface air, influenced by SIC and SST variability, from penetrating far inland. Therefore, the ice sheet SMB response is restricted to coastal regions, where katabatic winds are weaker. However, anomalies in SIC and SST could have indirectly affected the surface melt by changing the general circulation in the North Atlantic region, favouring more frequent warm air advection to the GrIS.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Topal ◽  
Qinghua Ding ◽  
István Gábor Hatvani ◽  
Thomas J Ballinger

<p><span>Despite the contribution of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) to global sea level rise, the lack of a complete understanding of its driving mechanisms largely constrains future model projections. Brief observational records limit model development efforts, however, the assimilation of paleoclimatic proxy data in climate models provides new opportunities to place recent climate changes in and around the Arctic in the context of long-term high-latitude variability. Building off of previous work, we investigate the relative role of internal atmospheric variability in modulating GrIS surface mass balance (SMB) using the newly available Ensemble Kalman Fitting Paleo-Reanalysis (EKF400) version 2, with monthly resolution for the period 1602-2003 AD, and the Last Millennium Reanalysis (LMR) version 2, which has an annual resolution from 0-2000 AD. We apply maximum covariance and empirical orthogonal function analyses on these two datasets to reveal co-varying patterns of Arctic upper-tropospheric changes and the GrIS SMB over centennial and millennial timescales with a special focus on remote tropical drivers of this local coupling. In light of these tropical-Arctic linkages in shaping GrIS conditions over the past two millennia, the application of proxy-assimilated model experiments provides deeper insights into the formation of such atmospheric dynamical connections that may impact GrIS SMB in the future.</span></p><p><span>I.G.H is supported by the Ministry of Human Capacties (NTP-NFTÖ-20-B-0043).</span></p>


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samira Samimi ◽  
Shawn Marshall ◽  
Michael McFerrin

<p>Mass loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased in recent decades due to significant increases in surface melt and runoff. The fraction of summer melt retains as a liquid water or refreezes as it percolates into the underlying cold firn, acting as a buffer to the summer runoff. There are challenges to quantifying both infiltration and refreezing of meltwater in this complex heterogeneous cold firn and to understand the spatial variability of these processes. In this study we present continuous in situ measurements of near-surface temperature and dielectric permittivity, a proxy for volumetric water content, using TDR (Time Domain Reflectometry) methods in the percolation zone of the southern Greenland Ice Sheet. We established two observation sites near Dye 2 in April, 2016, excavating firn pits to depths of 2.2 and 5.3 m. The two sites are 650 m apart to quantify the percolation and refreezing of meltwater and to observe the spatial variability of these processes through summer 2016. Thermistor arrays were used to track the thermal signature of meltwater penetration in firn, through the effects of latent heat release when meltwater refreezes. Through the addition of TDR probes, we attempt to directly quantify meltwater volume as well as hydraulic conductivity of the near-surface snow and firn. An automatic weather station (AWS) configured for surface energy balance monitoring was also installed. AWS data were used to calculate the surface energy balance and model meltwater production. The melting front, characterized by 0°C conditions and direct evidence of liquid water, penetrated to a depth of between 1.8 and 2.1 m in summer 2016; at depths of 2.1 m and greater, temperatures remained below 0°C, there was no evidence of abrupt warming (i.e. latent heat release), and dielectric permittivities remained at their background levels. Meltwater penetrated several thick ice layers, but not until temperatures reached the melting point at these depths, implying that ice layers may transition to a permeable ‘slush’ layer, given enough conductive and latent heating, permitting progressive penetration of meltwater to depth. Firn temperatures (sub-zero conditions below ~2 m) appear to have been the main barrier to deep penetration of meltwater during summer 2016.</p>


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