scholarly journals Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Tamsin Edwards ◽  
Matthew Beckley ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Large Perturbation ◽  
Intercomparison Exercises

Abstract. Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g., those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions can have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of the initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6). Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of 1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and 2) the response in two schematic forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly), and should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the wide diversity of data sets, boundary conditions and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to SMB changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap, but in general differences arise due to the initial size of the ice sheet. The spread in model drift is reduced compared to earlier intercomparison exercises.

scholarly journals Design and results of the ice sheet model initialisation experiments initMIP-Greenland: an ISMIP6 intercomparison

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 1433-1460 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heiko Goelzer ◽  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Tamsin Edwards ◽  
Matthew Beckley ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Sheets ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Intercomparison Project

Abstract. Earlier large-scale Greenland ice sheet sea-level projections (e.g. those run during the ice2sea and SeaRISE initiatives) have shown that ice sheet initial conditions have a large effect on the projections and give rise to important uncertainties. The goal of this initMIP-Greenland intercomparison exercise is to compare, evaluate, and improve the initialisation techniques used in the ice sheet modelling community and to estimate the associated uncertainties in modelled mass changes. initMIP-Greenland is the first in a series of ice sheet model intercomparison activities within ISMIP6 (the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6), which is the primary activity within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) focusing on the ice sheets. Two experiments for the large-scale Greenland ice sheet have been designed to allow intercomparison between participating models of (1) the initial present-day state of the ice sheet and (2) the response in two idealised forward experiments. The forward experiments serve to evaluate the initialisation in terms of model drift (forward run without additional forcing) and in response to a large perturbation (prescribed surface mass balance anomaly); they should not be interpreted as sea-level projections. We present and discuss results that highlight the diversity of data sets, boundary conditions, and initialisation techniques used in the community to generate initial states of the Greenland ice sheet. We find good agreement across the ensemble for the dynamic response to surface mass balance changes in areas where the simulated ice sheets overlap but differences arising from the initial size of the ice sheet. The model drift in the control experiment is reduced for models that participated in earlier intercomparison exercises.

scholarly journals Initial results of the SeaRISE numerical experiments with the models SICOPOLIS and IcIES for the Greenland ice sheet

2011 ◽  
Vol 52 (58) ◽  
pp. 23-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Fuyuki Saito ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Basal Sliding

AbstarctSeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) is a US-led multi-model community effort to predict the likely range of the contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets to sea-level rise over the next few hundred years under global warming conditions. The Japanese ice-sheet modelling community is contributing to SeaRISE with two large-scale, dynamic/thermodynamic models: SICOPOLIS and IcIES. Here we discuss results for the Greenland ice sheet, obtained using both models under the forcings (surface temperature and precipitation scenarios) defined by the SeaRISE effort. A crucial point for meaningful simulations into the future is to obtain initial conditions that are close to the observed state of the present-day ice sheet. This is achieved by proper tuning during model spin-up from the last glacial/interglacial cycle to today. Experiments over 500 years indicate that both models are more sensitive (exhibit a larger rate of ice-sheet mass loss) to future climate warming (based on the A1B emission scenario) than to a doubling in the basal sliding speed. Ice-sheet mass loss varies between the two models by a factor of ~2 for sliding experiments and a factor of ~3 for climate-warming experiments, highlighting the importance of improved constraints on the parameterization of basal sliding and surface mass balance in ice-sheet models.

scholarly journals Simulation of the future sea level contribution of Greenland with a new glacial system model

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 3097-3121 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reinhard Calov ◽  
Sebastian Beyer ◽  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Johanna Beckmann ◽  
Matteo Willeit ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level Rise ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
System Model ◽  
Surface Mass Balance ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. We introduce the coupled model of the Greenland glacial system IGLOO 1.0, including the polythermal ice sheet model SICOPOLIS (version 3.3) with hybrid dynamics, the model of basal hydrology HYDRO and a parameterization of submarine melt for marine-terminated outlet glaciers. The aim of this glacial system model is to gain a better understanding of the processes important for the future contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level rise under future climate change scenarios. The ice sheet is initialized via a relaxation towards observed surface elevation, imposing the palaeo-surface temperature over the last glacial cycle. As a present-day reference, we use the 1961–1990 standard climatology derived from simulations of the regional atmosphere model MAR with ERA reanalysis boundary conditions. For the palaeo-part of the spin-up, we add the temperature anomaly derived from the GRIP ice core to the years 1961–1990 average surface temperature field. For our projections, we apply surface temperature and surface mass balance anomalies derived from RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios created by MAR with boundary conditions from simulations with three CMIP5 models. The hybrid ice sheet model is fully coupled with the model of basal hydrology. With this model and the MAR scenarios, we perform simulations to estimate the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to future sea level rise until the end of the 21st and 23rd centuries. Further on, the impact of elevation–surface mass balance feedback, introduced via the MAR data, on future sea level rise is inspected. In our projections, we found the Greenland ice sheet to contribute between 1.9 and 13.0 cm to global sea level rise until the year 2100 and between 3.5 and 76.4 cm until the year 2300, including our simulated additional sea level rise due to elevation–surface mass balance feedback. Translated into additional sea level rise, the strength of this feedback in the year 2100 varies from 0.4 to 1.7 cm, and in the year 2300 it ranges from 1.7 to 21.8 cm. Additionally, taking the Helheim and Store glaciers as examples, we investigate the role of ocean warming and surface runoff change for the melting of outlet glaciers. It shows that ocean temperature and subglacial discharge are about equally important for the melting of the examined outlet glaciers.

scholarly journals On the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to sea level change

2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1933-1946 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michiel R. van den Broeke ◽  
Ellyn M. Enderlin ◽  
Ian M. Howat ◽  
Peter Kuipers Munneke ◽  
Brice P. Y. Noël ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mass Loss ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Pore Space ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Sea Level Change ◽  
Recent Contribution ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Level Change

Abstract. We assess the recent contribution of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) to sea level change. We use the mass budget method, which quantifies ice sheet mass balance (MB) as the difference between surface mass balance (SMB) and solid ice discharge across the grounding line (D). A comparison with independent gravity change observations from GRACE shows good agreement for the overlapping period 2002–2015, giving confidence in the partitioning of recent GrIS mass changes. The estimated 1995 value of D and the 1958–1995 average value of SMB are similar at 411 and 418 Gt yr−1, respectively, suggesting that ice flow in the mid-1990s was well adjusted to the average annual mass input, reminiscent of an ice sheet in approximate balance. Starting in the early to mid-1990s, SMB decreased while D increased, leading to quasi-persistent negative MB. About 60 % of the associated mass loss since 1991 is caused by changes in SMB and the remainder by D. The decrease in SMB is fully driven by an increase in surface melt and subsequent meltwater runoff, which is slightly compensated by a small ( <  3 %) increase in snowfall. The excess runoff originates from low-lying ( <  2000 m a.s.l.) parts of the ice sheet; higher up, increased refreezing prevents runoff of meltwater from occurring, at the expense of increased firn temperatures and depleted pore space. With a 1991–2015 average annual mass loss of  ∼  0.47 ± 0.23 mm sea level equivalent (SLE) and a peak contribution of 1.2 mm SLE in 2012, the GrIS has recently become a major source of global mean sea level rise.

scholarly journals initMIP-Antarctica: an ice sheet model initialization experiment of ISMIP6

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1441-1471 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hélène Seroussi ◽  
Sophie Nowicki ◽  
Erika Simon ◽  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi ◽  
Torsten Albrecht ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Surface Mass ◽  
Ice Shelves ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Model Initialization ◽  
Basal Melting ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract. Ice sheet numerical modeling is an important tool to estimate the dynamic contribution of the Antarctic ice sheet to sea level rise over the coming centuries. The influence of initial conditions on ice sheet model simulations, however, is still unclear. To better understand this influence, an initial state intercomparison exercise (initMIP) has been developed to compare, evaluate, and improve initialization procedures and estimate their impact on century-scale simulations. initMIP is the first set of experiments of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6), which is the primary Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) activity focusing on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Following initMIP-Greenland, initMIP-Antarctica has been designed to explore uncertainties associated with model initialization and spin-up and to evaluate the impact of changes in external forcings. Starting from the state of the Antarctic ice sheet at the end of the initialization procedure, three forward experiments are each run for 100 years: a control run, a run with a surface mass balance anomaly, and a run with a basal melting anomaly beneath floating ice. This study presents the results of initMIP-Antarctica from 25 simulations performed by 16 international modeling groups. The submitted results use different initial conditions and initialization methods, as well as ice flow model parameters and reference external forcings. We find a good agreement among model responses to the surface mass balance anomaly but large variations in responses to the basal melting anomaly. These variations can be attributed to differences in the extent of ice shelves and their upstream tributaries, the numerical treatment of grounding line, and the initial ocean conditions applied, suggesting that ongoing efforts to better represent ice shelves in continental-scale models should continue.

scholarly journals Evaluation of the updated regional climate model RACMO2.3: summer snowfall impact on the Greenland Ice Sheet

2015 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 1831-1844 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Noël ◽  
W. J. van de Berg ◽  
E. van Meijgaard ◽  
P. Kuipers Munneke ◽  
R. S. W. van de Wal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Elevation Gradient ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Detailed Comparison ◽  
Ablation Zone ◽  
Surface Mass

Abstract. We discuss Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) differences between the updated polar version of the RACMO climate model (RACMO2.3) and the previous version (RACMO2.1). Among other revisions, the updated model includes an adjusted rainfall-to-snowfall conversion that produces exclusively snowfall under freezing conditions; this especially favours snowfall in summer. Summer snowfall in the ablation zone of the GrIS has a pronounced effect on melt rates, affecting modelled GrIS SMB in two ways. By covering relatively dark ice with highly reflective fresh snow, these summer snowfalls have the potential to locally reduce melt rates in the ablation zone of the GrIS through the snow-albedo-melt feedback. At larger scales, SMB changes are driven by differences in orographic precipitation following a shift in large-scale circulation, in combination with enhanced moisture to precipitation conversion for warm to moderately cold conditions. A detailed comparison of model output with observations from automatic weather stations, ice cores and ablation stakes shows that the model update generally improves the simulated SMB-elevation gradient as well as the representation of the surface energy balance, although significant biases remain.

scholarly journals Basal Sliding Relations Deduced from Ice-Sheet Data

1984 ◽  
Vol 30 (105) ◽  
pp. 131-139 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. W. Morland ◽  
G. D. Smith ◽  
G. S. Boulton
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Condition ◽  
Mass Balance ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Lower Boundary ◽  
Tangential Velocity ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Overburden Pressure ◽  
Ice Flow ◽  
Surface Mass

AbstractThe sliding law is defined as a basal boundary condition for the large-scale bulk ice flow, relating the tangential tractionτb, overburden pressurepb, and tangential velocityubon a smoothed-out mean bed contour. This effective bed is a lower boundary viewed on the scale of the bulk ice flow and is not the physical ice/rock or sediment interface. The sliding relation reflects on the same scale the complex motion taking place in the neighbourhood of the physical interface. The isothermal steady-state ice-sheet analysis of Morland and Johnson (1980, 1982) is applied to known surface profiles from the Greenland ice sheet and Devon Island ice cap, with their corresponding mass-balance distributions, to determineτb,pb, andubfor each case. These basal estimates are used in turn to construct, using least-squares correlation, polynomial representations for an overburden dependenceλ(pb) in the adopted form of sliding lawτb═λ(pb)ub1/mwithm ≥1.The two different data sets determine functionsλ(pb) of very different magnitudes, reflecting very different basal conditions. A universal sliding law must therefore contain more general dependence on basal conditions, but the two relations determined appear to describe the two extremes. Hence use of both relations in turn to determine profiles compatible with given mass-balance distributions can be expected to yield extremes of the possible profiles, and further to show the sensitivity of profile form to variation of the sliding relation. The theory is designed as a basis for reconstruction of former ice sheets and their dynamics which are related to the two fundamental determinants of surface mass balance and basal boundary condition.

scholarly journals Resolution of ice streams and outlet glaciers in large-scale simulations of the Greenland ice sheet

2013 ◽  
Vol 54 (63) ◽  
pp. 209-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ralf Greve ◽  
Ute C. Herzfeld
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Control ◽  
Ice Streams ◽  
Bed Topography ◽  
The Future ◽  
Community Effort

AbstractThe dynamic/thermodynamic shallow-ice model SICOPOLIS is applied to the Greenland ice sheet. Paleoclimatic spin-ups from 125 ka BP until today, as well as future-climate experiments 500 years into the future, are carried out with three different grid spacings, namely 20, 10 and 5 km. The scenarios are a subset of those specified by the SeaRISE (Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution) community effort. The bed topography includes improved troughs for Jakobshavn Isbræ, Helheim, Kangerdlugssuaq and Petermann glaciers, processed by an algorithm that preserves shape, orientation and continuity of the troughs on the 5 km scale. Comparison of simulated and observed present-day surface velocities shows that these ice streams and outlet glaciers are resolved with different accuracies, ranging from poor (20 km grid) to reasonably good (5 km grid). In the future-climate experiments, the simulated absolute ice volumes depend significantly on the resolution, while the sensitivities (ice volumes relative to the constant-climate control run) vary only by a few centimeters of sea-level equivalent.

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