scholarly journals Future Snow? A Spatial-Probabilistic Assessment of the Extraordinarily Low Snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric A. Sproles ◽  
Travis R. Roth ◽  
Anne W. Nolin
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Social Environmental

Abstract. In the Pacific Northwest, USA, the extraordinarily low snowpacks of winters 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 stressed regional water resources and the social-environmental system. We introduce two new approaches to better understand how seasonal snowpack during these two winters would compare to snowpacks under warmer climate conditions. The first approach calculates a spatial-probabilistic metric representing the likelihood that the snowpacks of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 would occur under +2 °C perturbed climate conditions. We computed snow water storage (basin-wide and across elevations), and the ratio of snow water equivalent to cumulative precipitation (across elevations). We applied these computations to calculate the occurrence probability for similarly low snowpacks under climate warming. Results suggest that, relative to +2 °C conditions, basin-wide snow water storage during winter 2013–2014 would be above average while that of winter 2014–2015 would be far below average. April 1 snow water storage corresponds to a 40 % (2013–2014) and 90 % (2014–2015) probability of being met or exceeded in any given year. The second approach introduces the concept of snow analogs to improve the anticipatory capacity of climate change impacts on snow derived water resources. The use of a spatial-probabilistic approach and snow analogs provide new methods of assessing basin-wide snowpack in a non-stationary climate, and are readily applicable in other snow dominated watersheds.

scholarly journals Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 331-341 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric A. Sproles ◽  
Travis R. Roth ◽  
Anne W. Nolin
Keyword(s):  
Water Resources ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Willamette River ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Social Environmental

Abstract. In the Pacific Northwest, USA, the extraordinarily low snowpacks of winters 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 stressed regional water resources and the social-environmental system. We introduce two new approaches to better understand how seasonal snow water storage during these two winters would compare to snow water storage under warmer climate conditions. The first approach calculates a spatial-probabilistic metric representing the likelihood that the snow water storage of 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 would occur under +2 °C perturbed climate conditions. We computed snow water storage (basin-wide and across elevations) and the ratio of snow water equivalent to cumulative precipitation (across elevations) for the McKenzie River basin (3041 km2), a major tributary to the Willamette River in Oregon, USA. We applied these computations to calculate the occurrence probability for similarly low snow water storage under climate warming. Results suggest that, relative to +2 °C conditions, basin-wide snow water storage during winter 2013–2014 would be above average, while that of winter 2014–2015 would be far below average. Snow water storage on 1 April corresponds to a 42 % (2013–2014) and 92 % (2014–2015) probability of being met or exceeded in any given year. The second approach introduces the concept of snow analogs to improve the anticipatory capacity of climate change impacts on snow-derived water resources. The use of a spatial-probabilistic approach and snow analogs provide new methods of assessing basin-wide snow water storage in a non-stationary climate and are readily applicable in other snow-dominated watersheds.

Seasonal Cycle Shifts in Hydroclimatology over the Western United States

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 372-384 ◽  
Author(s):  
Satish Kumar Regonda ◽  
Balaji Rajagopalan ◽  
Martyn Clark ◽  
John Pitlick
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Winter Precipitation ◽  
Western United States ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Northwest Region

Abstract Analyses of streamflow, snow mass temperature, and precipitation in snowmelt-dominated river basins in the western United States indicate an advance in the timing of peak spring season flows over the past 50 years. Warm temperature spells in spring have occurred much earlier in recent years, which explains in part the trend in the timing of the spring peak flow. In addition, a decrease in snow water equivalent and a general increase in winter precipitation are evident for many stations in the western United States. It appears that in recent decades more of the precipitation is coming as rain rather than snow. The trends are strongest at lower elevations and in the Pacific Northwest region, where winter temperatures are closer to the melting point; it appears that in this region in particular, modest shifts in temperature are capable of forcing large shifts in basin hydrologic response. It is speculated that these trends could be potentially a manifestation of the general global warming trend in recent decades and also due to enhanced ENSO activity. The observed trends in hydroclimatology over the western United States can have significant impacts on water resources planning and management.

Drought in the Pacific Northwest, 1920–2013

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (9) ◽  
pp. 2391-2404 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mu Xiao ◽  
Bart Nijssen ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Keyword(s):  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Drought Period ◽  
Variable Infiltration Capacity Model ◽  
Capacity Model ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The severity–area–duration (SAD) method is used in conjunction with the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC) to identify the major historical total moisture (TM; soil moisture plus snow water equivalent) droughts over the Pacific Northwest region, defined as the Columbia River basin and the region’s coastal drainages, for the period 1920–2013. The motivation is to understand how droughts identified using TM (a measure similar to that used in the U.S. Drought Monitor) relate to sector-specific drought measures that are more relevant to users. It is found that most of the SAD space is dominated by an extended drought period during the 1930s, although the most severe shorter droughts are in the 1970s (1976–78) and early 2000s (2000–04). The impact of the three severe TM droughts that dominate most of the SAD space are explored in terms of sector-specific measures relevant to dryland and irrigated agriculture, hydropower generation, municipal water supply, and recreation. It is found that in many cases the most severe droughts identified using the SAD method also appear among the most severe sector-specific droughts; however, there are important exceptions. Two types of inconsistencies are examined and the nature of the conditions that give rise to them are explored.

Catchment-scale evaluation of pollution potential of urban snow at two residential catchments in southern Finland

2013 ◽  
Vol 68 (10) ◽  
pp. 2164-2170 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nora Sillanpää ◽  
Harri Koivusalo
Keyword(s):  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Cold Climate ◽  
Road Maintenance ◽  
Catchment Scale ◽  
Small Surface ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Level ◽  
Mass Loads

Despite the crucial role of snow in the hydrological cycle in cold climate conditions, monitoring studies of urban snow quality often lack discussions about the relevance of snow in the catchment-scale runoff management. In this study, measurements of snow quality were conducted at two residential catchments in Espoo, Finland, simultaneously with continuous runoff measurements. The results of the snow quality were used to produce catchment-scale estimates of areal snow mass loads (SML). Based on the results, urbanization reduced areal snow water equivalent but increased pollutant accumulation in snow: SMLs in a medium-density residential catchment were two- to four-fold higher in comparison with a low-density residential catchment. The main sources of pollutants were related to vehicular traffic and road maintenance, but also pet excrement increased concentrations to a high level. Ploughed snow can contain 50% of the areal pollutant mass stored in snow despite its small surface area within a catchment.

Long-term (1900-2100) Hydrometeorological and Snow Water Equivalent reconstructions in the French Southern Alps (Mercantour Natural Parc).

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibault Mathevet ◽  
Cyril Thébault ◽  
Jérôme Mansons ◽  
Matthieu Le Lay ◽  
Audrey Valery ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Southern Alps ◽  
Snow Line ◽  
Snow Water

<p>The aim of this communication is to present a study on climate variability and change on snow water equivalent (SWE) and streamflow over the 1900-2100 period in a mediteranean and moutainuous area.  It is based on SWE and streamflow observations, past reconstructions (1900-2018) and future GIEC scenarii (up to 2100) of some snow courses and hydrological stations situated within the French Southern Alps (Mercantour Natural Parc). This has been conducted by EDF (French hydropower company) and Mercantour Natural Parc.</p><p>This issue became particularly important since a decade, especially in regions where snow variability had a large impact on water resources availability, poor snow conditions in ski resorts and artificial snow production or impacts on mountainous ecosystems (fauna and flora). As a water resources manager in French mountainuous regions, EDF developed and managed a large hydrometeorological network since 1950. A recent data rescue research allowed to digitize long term SWE manual measurements of a hundred of snow courses within the French Alps. EDF have been operating an automatic SWE sensors network, complementary to historical snow course network. Based on numerous SWE observations time-series and snow modelization (Garavaglia et al., 2017), continuous daily historical SWE time-series have been reconstructed within the 1950-2018 period. These reconstructions have been extented to 1900 using 20 CR (20<sup>th</sup> century reanalyses by NOAA) reanalyses (ANATEM method, Kuentz et al., 2015) and up to 2100 using GIEC Climate Change scenarii (+4.5 W/m² and + 8.5 W/m² hypotheses). In the scope of this study, Mercantour Natural Parc is particularly interested by snow scenarii in the future and its impacts on their local flora and fauna.</p><p>Considering observations within Durance watershed and Mercantour region, this communication focuses on: (1) long term (1900-2018) analyses of variability and trend of hydrometeorological and snow variables (total precipitation, air temperature, snow water equivalent, snow line altitude, snow season length, streamflow regimes) , (2) long term variability of snow and hydrological regime of snow dominated watersheds and (3) future trends (2020 -2100) using GIEC Climate Change scenarii.</p><p>Comparing old period (1950-1984) to recent period (1984-2018), quantitative results within these regions roughly shows an increase of air temperature by 1.2 °C, an increase of snow line height by 200m, a reduction of SWE by 200 mm/year and a reduction of snow season duration by 15 days. Characterization of the increase of snow line height and SWE reduction are particularly important at a local and watershed scale. Then, this communication focuses on impacts on long-term time scales (2050, 2100). This long term change of snow dynamics within moutainuous regions both impacts (1) water resources management, (2) snow resorts and artificial snow production developments or (3) ecosystems dynamics.Connected to the evolution of snow seasonality, the impacts on hydrological regime and some streamflow signatures allow to characterize the possible evolution of water resources in this mediteranean and moutianuous region This study allowed to provide some local quantitative scenarii.</p>

scholarly journals Projected cryospheric and hydrological impacts of 21st century climate change in the Ötztal Alps (Austria) simulated using a physically based approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (2) ◽  
pp. 1593-1614 ◽  
Author(s):  
Florian Hanzer ◽  
Kristian Förster ◽  
Johanna Nemec ◽  
Ulrich Strasser
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Early 21St Century ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
High Elevations

Abstract. A physically based hydroclimatological model (AMUNDSEN) is used to assess future climate change impacts on the cryosphere and hydrology of the Ötztal Alps (Austria) until 2100. The model is run in 100 m spatial and 3 h temporal resolution using in total 31 downscaled, bias-corrected, and temporally disaggregated EURO-CORDEX climate projections for the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 scenarios as forcing data, making this – to date – the most detailed study for this region in terms of process representation and range of considered climate projections. Changes in snow coverage, glacierization, and hydrological regimes are discussed both for a larger area encompassing the Ötztal Alps (1850 km2, 862–3770 m a.s.l.) as well as for seven catchments in the area with varying size (11–165 km2) and glacierization (24–77 %). Results show generally declining snow amounts with moderate decreases (0–20 % depending on the emission scenario) of mean annual snow water equivalent in high elevations (> 2500 m a.s.l.) until the end of the century. The largest decreases, amounting to up to 25–80 %, are projected to occur in elevations below 1500 m a.s.l. Glaciers in the region will continue to retreat strongly, leaving only 4–20 % of the initial (as of 2006) ice volume left by 2100. Total and summer (JJA) runoff will change little during the early 21st century (2011–2040) with simulated decreases (compared to 1997–2006) of up to 11 % (total) and 13 % (summer) depending on catchment and scenario, whereas runoff volumes decrease by up to 39 % (total) and 47 % (summer) towards the end of the century (2071–2100), accompanied by a shift in peak flows from July towards June.

Water conservation practices for sustainable dryland farming systems in the Pacific Northwest

1996 ◽  
Vol 11 (2-3) ◽  
pp. 58-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
John E. Hammel
Keyword(s):  
Winter Wheat ◽  
Pacific Northwest ◽  
Water Conservation ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Water Erosion ◽  
Residue Management ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Summer Fallow ◽  
Wind And Water Erosion

Sustainable crop production in the Pacific Northwest dry-farmed areas relies heavily on tillage and residue management systems to conserve water. Stable, sustainable yields cannot be achieved without adequate water conservation techniques. Frozen soil can reduce infiltration markedly, which decreases overwinter profile water storage and can cause severe soil erosion. Uncurbed evaporation losses throughout the year can greatly limit yields, particularly with summer fallow.In both summer-fallowed and annually cropped regions where soil freezes frequently, fall tillage is used to increase surface macroporosity and to provide open channels to below the frost depth. This enhances infiltration throughout the winter and insures better water intake during rapid snowmelt and rainfall when the soil is frozen. Fall tillage enhances overwinter water recharge under these conditions, whereas in areas where soil freezes infrequently, it does not improve water storage efficiency.In the dry-farmed regions receiving less than 330 mm annual precipitation, a winter wheat-fallow system is used to reduce the risk of uneconomical yields. Successful establishment of winter wheat following summer fallow is feasible only when proper management has suppressed evaporative loss. During the dry summer fallow, tillage is used to develop and maintain a soil mulch that restricts the flow of water, as both liquid and vapor. The tillage mulch effectively conserves stored soil water and maintains adequate seedzone moisture for fall establishment of winter wheat. However, the soil mulch can lead to high wind and water erosion.In the Pacific Northwest dry-farmed region, tillage by itself is not considered a substitute for proper residue management. Crop residues following harvest are important for conserving water and controlling erosion. Under conservation programs implemented since 1985, shallow subsurface tillage systems that maintain residues on the surface have substantially reduced wind and water erosion in the region. Surface residues are effective in decreasing evaporative water loss and trapping snow during the winter, and therefore increase overwinter recharge. While surface residues are much less effective in suppressing evaporative losses in dry-farmed areas during extended dry periods, residues provide substantial control of wind and water erosion during the fallow.Before conservation tillage systems came into use in the Pacific Northwest, water conservation frequently was achieved only through tillage. This helped to stabilize yields, but at a high cost to the soil resource. Poor use of surface residues and intensive tillage contributed to extensive wind and water erosion. Continued use of these practices would have caused yields to decline over time and required greater agrichemical inputs. To meet soil and water conservation needs, site-specific tillage and residue management systems were developed to account for the diversity and variability of soils and climate across the Pacific Northwest. Common to all these production systems is that both water conservation and effective residue management to protect the soil are required for long-term sustainable production.

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