scholarly journals El Niño, La Niña, and the global sea level budget

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Piecuch ◽  
Katherine J. Quinn
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract. Previous studies show that nonseasonal variations in global-mean sea level (GMSL) are significantly correlated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, it has remained unclear to what extent these ENSO-related GMSL fluctuations correspond to steric (i.e., density) or barystatic (mass) effects. Here we diagnose the GMSL budget for ENSO events observationally using data from profiling floats, satellite gravimetry, and radar altimetry during 2005–2015. Steric and barystatic effects make comparable contributions to the GMSL budget during ENSO, in contrast to previous interpretations based largely on hydrological models, which emphasize the barystatic component. The steric contributions reflect changes in global ocean heat content, centered on the Pacific. Distributions of ocean heat storage in the Pacific arise from a mix of diabatic and adiabatic effects. Results have implications for understanding the surface warming slowdown and demonstrate the usefulness of the Global Ocean Observing System for constraining Earth's hydrological cycle and radiation imbalance.

scholarly journals El Niño, La Niña, and the global sea level budget

Ocean Science ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1165-1177 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christopher G. Piecuch ◽  
Katherine J. Quinn
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Surface Warming ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract. Previous studies show that nonseasonal variations in global-mean sea level (GMSL) are significantly correlated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, it has remained unclear to what extent these ENSO-related GMSL fluctuations correspond to steric (i.e., density) or barystatic (mass) effects. Here we diagnose the GMSL budget for ENSO events observationally using data from profiling floats, satellite gravimetry, and radar altimetry during 2005–2015. Steric and barystatic effects make comparable contributions to the GMSL budget during ENSO, in contrast to previous interpretations based largely on hydrological models, which emphasize the barystatic component. The steric contributions reflect changes in global ocean heat content, centered on the Pacific. Distributions of ocean heat storage in the Pacific arise from a mix of diabatic and adiabatic effects. Results have implications for understanding the surface warming slowdown and demonstrate the usefulness of the Global Ocean Observing System for constraining Earth's hydrological cycle and radiation imbalance.

scholarly journals ENSO-Related Global Ocean Heat Content Variations

2018 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 45-68 ◽  
Author(s):  
Quran Wu ◽  
Xuebin Zhang ◽  
John A. Church ◽  
Jianyu Hu
Keyword(s):  
Heat Exchange ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Vertical Direction ◽  
Ocean Heat Content ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Ocean Current ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract The modulation of the full-depth global integrated ocean heat content (GOHC) by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been estimated in various studies. However, the quantitative results and the mechanisms at work remain uncertain. Here, a dynamically consistent ocean state estimate is utilized to study the large-scale integrated heat content variations during ENSO events for the global ocean. The full-depth GOHC exhibits a cooling tendency during the peak and decaying phases of El Niño, which is a result of the negative surface heat flux (SHF) anomaly in the tropics (30°S–30°N), partially offset by the positive SHF anomaly at higher latitudes. The tropical SHF anomaly acts as a lagged response to damp the convergence of oceanic heat transport, which redistributes heat from the extratropics and the subsurface layers (100–440 m) into the upper tropical oceans (0–100 m) during the onset and peak of El Niño. These results highlight the global nature of the oceanic heat redistribution during ENSO events, as well as how the redistribution process affects the full-depth GOHC. The meridional heat exchange across 30°S and 30°N is driven by ocean current anomalies, while multiple processes contribute to the vertical heat exchange across 100 m simultaneously. Heat advection due to unbalanced mass transport is distinguished from the mass balanced one, with significant contributions from the meridional and zonal overturning cells being identified for the latter in the vertical direction. Results presented here have implications for monitoring the planetary energy budget and evaluating ENSO’s global imprints on ocean heat content in different estimates.

scholarly journals Extended ENSO Predictions Using a Fully Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Model

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 84-93 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jing-Jia Luo ◽  
Sebastien Masson ◽  
Swadhin K. Behera ◽  
Toshio Yamagata
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Past ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
First Time ◽  
Fully Coupled

Abstract Using a fully coupled global ocean–atmosphere general circulation model assimilating only sea surface temperature, the authors found for the first time that several El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events over the past two decades can be predicted at lead times of up to 2 yr. The El Niño condition in the 1997/98 winter can be predicted to some extent up to about a 1½-yr lead but with a weak intensity and large phase delay in the prediction of the onset of this exceptionally strong event. This is attributed to the influence of active and intensive stochastic westerly wind bursts during late 1996 to mid-1997, which are generally unpredictable at seasonal time scales. The cold signals in the 1984/85 and 1999/2000 winters during the peak phases of the past two long-lasting La Niña events are predicted well up to a 2-yr lead. Amazingly, the mild El Niño–like event of 2002/03 is also predicted well up to a 2-yr lead, suggesting a link between the prolonged El Niño and the tropical Pacific decadal variability. Seasonal climate anomalies over vast parts of the globe during specific ENSO years are also realistically predicted up to a 2-yr lead for the first time.

scholarly journals El Niño Effects and Upwelling off South Australia

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (10) ◽  
pp. 2458-2477 ◽  
Author(s):  
John F. Middleton ◽  
Craig Arthur ◽  
Paul Van Ruth ◽  
Tim M. Ward ◽  
Julie L. McClean ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
South Australia ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Shelf Edge ◽  
The West ◽  
Enso Events

Abstract To determine the possible importance of ENSO events along the coast of South Australia, an exploratory analysis is made of meteorological and oceanographic data and output from a global ocean model. Long time series of coastal sea level and wind stress are used to show that while upwelling favorable winds have been more persistent since 1982, ENSO events (i) are largely driven by signals from the west Pacific Ocean shelf/slope waveguide and not local meteorological conditions, (ii) can account for 10-cm changes in sea level, and (iii) together with wind stress, explain 62% of the variance of annual-averaged sea level. Thus, both local winds and remote forcing from the west Pacific are likely important to the low-frequency shelf edge circulation. Evidence also suggests that, since 1983, wintertime downwelling during the onset of an El Niño is reduced and the following summertime upwelling is enhanced. In situ data show that during the 1998 and 2003 El Niño events anomalously cold (10.5°–11.5°C) water is found at depths of 60–120 m and is more than two standard deviations cooler than the mean. A regression showed that averaged sea level can provide a statistically significant proxy for these subsurface temperature changes and indicates a 2.2°C decrease in temperature for the 10-cm decrease in sea level that was driven by the 1998 El Niño event. Limited current- meter observations, long sea level records, and output from a global ocean model were also examined and provide support for the hypothesis that El Niño events substantially reduce wintertime (but not summertime) shelf-edge currents. Further research to confirm this asymmetric response and its cause is required.

scholarly journals PDO–ENSO Effects in the Climate of Mexico

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (24) ◽  
pp. 6433-6438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgar G. Pavia ◽  
Federico Graef ◽  
Jorge Reyes
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Climate Anomalies ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
The Pacific

Abstract The role of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) in El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related Mexican climate anomalies during winter and summer is investigated. The precipitation and mean temperature data of approximately 1000 stations throughout Mexico are considered. After sorting ENSO events by warm phase (El Niño) and cold phase (La Niña) and prevailing PDO phase: warm or high (HiPDO) and cold or low (LoPDO), the authors found the following: 1) For precipitation, El Niño favors wet conditions during summers of LoPDO and during winters of HiPDO. 2) For mean temperature, cooler conditions are favored during La Niña summers and during El Niño winters, regardless of the PDO phase; however, warmer conditions are favored by the HiPDO during El Niño summers.

scholarly journals A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650

2010 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. McGregor ◽  
A. Timmermann ◽  
O. Timm
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Pass ◽  
Change In The Mean ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions ◽  
Common Signal

Abstract. In this manuscript we have attempted to consolidate the common signal in previously defined proxy reconstructions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation into one individual proxy titled the Unified ENSO Proxy (UEP). While correlating well with the majority of input reconstructions, the UEP provides better representation of observed indices of ENSO, discrete ENSO events and documented historical chronologies of ENSO than any of these input ENSO reconstructions. Further to this, the UEP also provides a means to reconstruct the PDO/IPO multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean as the low-pass filtered UEP displays multi-decadal variability that is consistent with the 20th century variability of the PDO and IPO. The UEP is then used to describe changes in ENSO variability which have occurred since 1650 focusing on changes in ENSOs variance, multi-year ENSO events, PDO-like multi-decadal variability and the effects of volcanic and solar forcing on ENSO. We find that multi-year El Niño events similar to the 1990–1995 event have occurred several times over the last 3 1/2 centuries. Consistent with earlier studies we find that volcanic forcing can induce a statistically significant change in the mean state of ENSO in the year of the eruption and a doubling of the probability of an El Niño (La Niña) event occurring in the year of (three years after) the eruption.

scholarly journals Global responses of terrestrial productivity to contemporary climatic oscillations

2008 ◽  
Vol 363 (1504) ◽  
pp. 2779-2785 ◽  
Author(s):  
F.I Woodward ◽  
M.R Lomas ◽  
T Quaife
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Gross Primary Production ◽  
Ecosystem Structure ◽  
Climatic Oscillations ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Wide Range

The terrestrial biosphere is subjected to a wide range of natural climatic oscillations. Best known is the El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) that exerts globally extensive impacts on crops and natural vegetation. A 50-year time series of ENSO events has been analysed to determine those geographical areas that are reliably impacted by ENSO events. Most areas are impacted by changes in precipitation; however, the Pacific Northwest is warmed by El Niño events. Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) has been simulated for these areas, and tests well against independent satellite observations of the normalized difference vegetation index. Analyses of selected geographical areas indicate that changes in GPP often lead to significant changes in ecosystem structure and dynamics. The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is another climatic oscillation that originates from the Pacific and exerts global impacts that are rather similar to ENSO events. However, the longer period of the PDO provided two phases in the time series with a cool phase from 1951 to 1976 and a warm phase from 1977 to 2002. It was notable that the cool phase of the PDO acted additively with cool ENSO phases to exacerbate drought in the earlier period for the southwest USA. By contrast in India, the cool phase of the PDO appears to reduce the negative impacts of warm ENSO events on crop production.

Evidence of a genetic bottleneck in an El Niño affected population of South American fur seals, Arctocephalus australis

2009 ◽  
Vol 89 (8) ◽  
pp. 1717-1725 ◽  
Author(s):  
Larissa Rosa de Oliveira ◽  
Diogo Meyer ◽  
Joseph Hoffman ◽  
Patricia Majluf ◽  
João S. Morgante
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Genetic Bottleneck ◽  
South American ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Fur Seals ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Fur Seal

The South American fur seal, Arctocephalus australis, was one of the earliest otariid seals to be exploited by humans: at least 6000 years ago on the Atlantic coast and 4000 on the Pacific coast of South America. More than 750,000 fur seals were killed in Uruguay until 1991. However, a climatological phenomenon—the severe 1997–1998 El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—was responsible for the decline of 72% of the Peruvian fur seal population due to starvation as a consequence of warming of sea-surface temperatures and primary productivity reduction. Currently, there is no precise information on global population size or on the species' conservation status. The present study includes the first bottleneck test for the Pacific and Atlantic populations of A. australis based on the analysis of seven microsatellite loci. Genetic bottleneck compromises the evolutionary potential of a population to respond to environmental changes. The perspective becomes even more alarming due to current global warming models that predict stronger and more frequent ENSO events in the future. Our analysis found moderate support for deviation from neutrality–equilibrium for the Pacific population of fur seals and none for the Atlantic population. This difference among population reflects different demographic histories, and is consistent with a greater reduction in population size in the Pacific. Such an event could be a result of the synergic effects of recurrent ENSO events and the anthropogenic impact (sealing and prey overfishing) on this population.

scholarly journals A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650

2009 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 2177-2222 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. McGregor ◽  
A. Timmermann ◽  
O. Timm
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Low Pass ◽  
Change In The Mean ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions ◽  
Common Signal

Abstract. In this manuscript we have attempted to consolidate the common signal in previously defined proxy reconstructions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation into one individual proxy titled the Unified ENSO Proxy (UEP). While correlating well with the majority of input reconstructions, the UEP provides better representation of observed indices of ENSO, discrete ENSO events and documented historical chronologies of ENSO than any of these input ENSO reconstructions. Further to this, the UEP also provides a means to reconstruct the PDO/IPO multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean as the low-pass filtered UEP displays multi-decadal variability that is consistent with the 20th century variability of the PDO and IPO. The UEP is then used to describe changes in ENSO variability which have occurred since 1650 focusing on changes in ENSOs variance, multi-year ENSO events, PDO-like multi-decadal variability and the effects of volcanic and solar forcing on ENSO. We find that multi-year El Niño events similar to the 1990–1995 event have occurred several times over the last 3 1/2 centuries. Consistent with earlier studies we find that volcanic forcing can induce a statistically significant change in the mean state of ENSO in the year of the eruption and a doubling of the probability of an El Niño (La Niña) event occurring in the year of (three years after) the eruption.

scholarly journals Changes in Tropical Pacific Thermocline Depth and Their Relationship to ENSO after 1999

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (19) ◽  
pp. 7230-7249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caihong Wen ◽  
Arun Kumar ◽  
Yan Xue ◽  
M. J. McPhaden
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Thermocline Depth ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Equatorial Thermocline ◽  
Good Precursor

Abstract The characteristics of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability have experienced notable changes since the late 1990s, including a breakdown of the zonal mean upper-ocean heat content as a precursor for ENSO. These changes also initiated a debate on the role of thermocline variations on the development of ENSO events since the beginning of the twenty-first century. In this study, the connection between thermocline variations and El Niño and La Niña events is examined separately for the 1980–98 and 1999–2012 periods. The analysis highlights the important role of thermocline variations in modulating ENSO evolutions in both periods. It is found that thermocline variation averaged in the central tropical Pacific, including both equatorial and off-equatorial regions, is a good precursor for ENSO evolutions before and after 1999, while the traditional basinwide mean of equatorial thermocline variation is a good precursor only before 1999. The new precursor, including both high-frequency variability in equatorial regions and low-frequency variability in off-equatorial regions, is found to be indicative of multiyear persistent warm and cold conditions in the tropical Pacific. Further, it is found that the strength of the subtropical cells (STCs) interior mass transport in both hemispheres increased rapidly around the late 1990s. It is proposed that the strengthened STC interior transports provide a pathway for the enhanced influence of off-equatorial thermocline variations on the development of ENSO events after 1999.

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