scholarly journals Linking economic and social factors to peak flows in an agricultural watershed using socio-hydrologic modeling

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Dziubanski ◽  
Kristie J. Franz ◽  
William Gutowski
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Agricultural Watershed ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Land Use Decisions ◽  
Corn Prices ◽  
System Variables

Abstract. Hydrologic modeling studies most often represent humans through predefined actions and fail to account for human responses under changing hydrologic conditions. By treating both human and hydrologic systems as co-evolving, we build a socio-hydrological model that combines an agent-based model (ABM) with a semi-distributed hydrologic model. The curve number method is used to clearly illustrate the impacts of landcover changes resulting from decisions made by two different agent types. Aiming to reduce flooding, a city agent pays farmer agents to convert land into conservation. Farmer agents decide how to allocate land between conservation and production based on factors related to profits, past land use, and willingness. The model is implemented for a watershed representative of the mixed agricultural/small urban area land use found in Iowa, USA. In this preliminary study, we simulate scenarios of crop yields, crop prices, and conservation subsidies along with varied farmer parameters that illustrate the effects of human system variables on peak discharges. High corn prices lead to a decrease in conservation land from historical levels; consequently, mean peak discharge increases by 6 %, creating greater potential for downstream flooding within the watershed. However, when corn prices are low and the watershed is characterized by a conservation-minded farmer population, mean peak discharge is reduced by 3 %. Overall, changes in mean peak discharge, which is representative of farmer land use decisions, are most sensitive to changes in crop prices as opposed to yields or conservation subsidies.

scholarly journals Linking economic and social factors to peak flows in an agricultural watershed using socio-hydrologic modeling

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 2873-2894 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Dziubanski ◽  
Kristie J. Franz ◽  
William Gutowski
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Agricultural Watershed ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Land Use Decisions ◽  
Corn Prices ◽  
System Variables

Abstract. Hydrologic modeling studies most often represent humans through predefined actions and fail to account for human responses under changing hydrologic conditions. By treating both human and hydrologic systems as co-evolving, we build a socio-hydrological model that combines an agent-based model (ABM) with a semi-distributed hydrologic model. The curve number method is used to clearly illustrate the impacts of land cover changes resulting from decisions made by two different agent types. Aiming to reduce flooding, a city agent pays farmer agents to convert land into conservation. Farmer agents decide how to allocate land between conservation and production based on factors related to profits, past land use, and willingness. The model is implemented for a watershed representative of the mixed agricultural/small urban area land use found in Iowa, USA. In this preliminary study, we simulate scenarios of crop yields, crop prices, and conservation subsidies along with varied farmer parameters that illustrate the effects of human system variables on peak discharges. High corn prices lead to a decrease in conservation land from historical levels; consequently, mean peak discharge increases by 6 %, creating greater potential for downstream flooding within the watershed. However, when corn prices are low and the watershed is characterized by a conservation-minded farmer population, mean peak discharge is reduced by 3 %. Overall, changes in mean peak discharge, which is representative of farmer land use decisions, are most sensitive to changes in crop prices as opposed to yields or conservation subsidies.

scholarly journals ‘Fair’ policies for the coffee trade – protecting people or biodiversity?

2009 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 739-758 ◽  
Author(s):  
MITRI KITTI ◽  
JAAKKO HEIKKILÄ ◽  
ANNI HUHTALA
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Economic Sustainability ◽  
Economic Instruments ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Price Premiums ◽  
Land Use Decisions ◽  
Pollinating Insects

ABSTRACTWe investigate the role that economic instruments can play in promoting economic sustainability and the preservation of biodiversity in agroforestry management in coffee production. Most of the world's coffee producers live in poverty and manage agro-ecosystems in regions that are culturally and biologically among the most diverse on the globe. Despite the relatively recent finding that bees may augment pollination and boost coffee crop yields, the short-term revenues from intense monoculture drive land-use decisions that destroy the forest strips serving as habitats for pollinating insects. Our study investigates whether farmers specialize in environmentally detrimental (sun-grown) or sustainable (shade-grown) farming, or both practices coexist. We calibrate an empirical model to characterize the equilibria and investigate the ecological and economic impacts of three alternative policy instruments: conservation fees, price premiums, and minimum wages.

The Use of an Automated Nowcasting System to Forecast Flash Floods in an Urban Watershed

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 190-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hatim O. Sharif ◽  
David Yates ◽  
Rita Roberts ◽  
Cynthia Mueller
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Urban Settings ◽  
Flood Warning ◽  
Distributed Hydrologic Modeling ◽  
Physically Based

Abstract Flash flooding represents a significant hazard to human safety and a threat to property. Simulation and prediction of floods in complex urban settings requires high-resolution precipitation estimates and distributed hydrologic modeling. The need for reliable flash flood forecasting has increased in recent years, especially in urban communities, because of the high costs associated with flood occurrences. Several storm nowcast systems use radar to provide quantitative precipitation forecasts that can potentially afford great benefits to flood warning and short-term forecasting in urban settings. In this paper, the potential benefits of high-resolution weather radar data, physically based distributed hydrologic modeling, and quantitative precipitation nowcasting for urban hydrology and flash flood prediction were demonstrated by forcing a physically based distributed hydrologic model with precipitation forecasts made by a convective storm nowcast system to predict flash floods in a small, highly urbanized catchment in Denver, Colorado. Two rainfall events on 5 and 8 July 2001 in the Harvard Gulch watershed are presented that correspond to times during which the storm nowcast system was operated. Results clearly indicate that high-resolution radar-rainfall estimates and advanced nowcasting can potentially lead to improvements in flood warning and forecasting in urban watersheds, even for short-lived events on small catchments. At lead times of 70 min before the occurrence of peak discharge, forecast accuracies of approximately 17% in peak discharge and 10 min in peak timing were achieved for a 10 km2 highly urbanized catchment.

scholarly journals Investigation of Basin Characteristics: Implications for Sub-basins Level Flood Peak and Vulnerability Assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajeev Ranjan ◽  
Pankaj R. Dhote ◽  
Praveen K. Thakur ◽  
Shiv P. Aggarwal
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Geographical Information ◽  
Administrative District ◽  
Flood Vulnerability ◽  
Flood Peak ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
Gauging Station

Abstract Flood vulnerability is a significant component in assessing the probable degree of damage to various exposures in hazard conditions. In this study, a semi-distributed event-based hydrological model and indicator-based method were applied to evaluate the sub-basin level flood vulnerability using the Geographical Information System (GIS). The flood peak discharge of each sub-basin corresponding to the 2014 extreme flood of the Jhelum river was related with different sub-basins characteristics (terrain, hydrological, land use and soil) using a theoretical framework under an indicator-based method. The calibrated (2014) and validated (1992, 1997) hydrological model showed Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.98 and (0.99, 0.99) at relatively upstream gauging station Sangam against optimized Curve Number (CN) scaling factor of 0.98. The Anantnag and Kulgam districts, exhibiting multiple sub-basins contributing to the Sangam gauging station, are falling into a highly vulnerable category located in the Jhelum basin's southern part, Greater Himalayan Range. It was also revealed that sub-basins at the upstream of the Jhelum basin are more vulnerable compared to downstream area, where sub-basin W810 (Greater Himalayan), Anantnag district draining at Sangam gauging site is found as most vulnerable among the all other sub-basins. However, hydrological characteristics control the most vulnerable sub-basin peak discharge rather than other characteristics such as terrain, soil, or Land Use. Outcomes of the study will be helpful in prioritizing the flood mitigation planning not only with respect to the hydrological boundary (sub-basin level) but also with administrative district boundaries. The proposed method is generic and can be applied to any flood-prone river basin.

scholarly journals Modelización geoespacial del escurrimiento superficial en cuencas de las sierras del sudoeste, Tucumán, Argentina

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-46
Author(s):  
Romina Díaz Gómez ◽  
Fernanda Julia Gaspari
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Landsat Tm ◽  
Native Forest ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Land Cover Map ◽  
Vectorial Data ◽  
Land Use And Cover

La aplicación del modelo hidrológico L-THIA ©, con apoyo en la metodología del número de la curva (CN) del Servicio de Conservación de Suelos de Estados Unidos, es empleado para transformar la precipitación total en precipitación efectiva, constituyéndose en una herramienta de gran valor para realizar estudios hidrológicos en cuencas hidrográficas, en las que no se cuenta con registros lo suficientemente extensos y confiables. Esta metodología requiere del conocimiento del tipo y uso de suelo de la cuenca en estudio, así como de registros de precipitación, en estaciones cercanas a ella. El presente estudio se aplica en la cuenca hidrográfica de los ríos Singuil y Chavarria, Tucumán, Argentina. Se cuantificó el uso y cobertura del suelo a partir del procesamiento de imágenes Landsat TM, identificando los cambios de uso y cobertura del suelo para el período 1986-2010. El procesamiento digital de la base de datos vectorial consistió en la rasterización automática con herramientas de sistema de información geográfica. Se obtuvo el valor de CN y se cuantificó la lámina de escurrimiento. La disminución de la cobertura de pastizal y su reemplazo por bosque nativo, incrementa la tasa de infiltración reduciendo el escurrimiento superficial. AbstractThe application of the L-THIA ©, hydrologic model, supported on the curve number methodology (CN), SCS-USA, it is used to transform total precipitation into effective precipitation. This becomes a useful tool for hydrologic studies in basins lacking extended and truthful registers. This methodology requires: type of soil data, land use land cover map, and precipitation data. The study area was Singuil and Chavarria basins, Tucumán, Argentina. We analyzed land use and cover change during 1986-2010 using Landsat TM images. Vectorial data base was rasterized using Geographic Information System. CN value and run off level were obtained.The decrease of grassland cover and its replacement by native forest increases the rate of infiltration reducing the surface runoff in the analyzed basins.

scholarly journals Debit Puncak Harian Tahunan Metode HSS Nakayasu dan Debit Terukur di DAS Muke Kabupaten TTSS SERVICES-CURVE NUMBER DAN DEBIT TERUKUR DI DAERAH ALIRAN SUNGAI MUKE KABUPATEN TIMOR TENGAH SELATAN

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 25-35
Author(s):  
Monica T.R Utung ◽  
Judi K Nasjono ◽  
Elia Hunggurami
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Calculation Model ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Discharge Curve ◽  
Discharge Estimation ◽  
Plantation System

The Muke River is prone to flooding. flooding is caused by conversion in land use due to the migrating plantation system. In the Muke river, it is necessary to analyze the discharge estimation to determine the potential of water in the Muke river. In this study, the authors performed peak discharge calculation using measured calculation model and calculate. Measured calculations using discharge’s curve and calculated by using hydrographic method of synthetic unit namely Nakayasu. The results of the analysis for the calculation of discharge on the Muke river using the discharge curve obtained that the peak discharge occurred in 2012 with Qmax = 99.41 m3/s and the smallest discharge occurred in 2010 with Qmin = 13.19 m3/s, the results of the analysis for the calculation of discharge on the Muke river using the Nakayasu method obtained peak discharge occurred in 2010 with Qmax= 184.74 m3/s and the smallest discharge occurred in 2014 with Qmin = 94.33 m3/s.

scholarly journals Impacts of Land Use and Land Cover Changes on Peak Discharge and Flow Volume in Kakia and Esamburmbur Sub-Catchments of Narok Town, Kenya

Hydrology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
Etienne Umukiza ◽  
James M. Raude ◽  
Simon M. Wandera ◽  
Andrea Petroselli ◽  
John M. Gathenya
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
Curve Number ◽  
Peak Discharge ◽  
Land Use Land Cover ◽  
Flow Volume ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Event Based ◽  
Runoff Model

Due to population growth and an expanding economy, land use/land cover (LULC) change is continuously intensifying and its effects on floods in Kakia and Esamburmbur sub-catchments in Narok town, Kenya, are increasing. This study was carried out in order to evaluate the influence of LULC changes on peak discharge and flow volume in the aforementioned areas. The Event-Based Approach for Small and Ungauged Basins (EBA4SUB) rainfall–runoff model was used to evaluate the peak discharge and flow volume under different assumed scenarios of LULC that were projected starting from a diachronic analysis of satellite images of 1985 and 2019. EBA4SUB simulation demonstrated how the configuration and composition of LULC affect peak discharge and flow volume in the selected catchments. The results showed that the peak discharge and flow volume are affected by the variation of the Curve Number (CN) value that is dependent on the assumed LULC scenario. The evaluated peak discharge and flow volume for the assumed LULC scenarios can be used by local Municipal bodies to mitigate floods.

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