scholarly journals Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuanhao Wu ◽  
Bill X. Hu ◽  
Guoru Huang ◽  
Peng Wang ◽  
Kai Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Western China ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the alteration of the temporal-spatial patterns of water resources. Based on the long-term (1960–2012) water budget data and climate projections from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to historical and future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results show that there is a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.2 to 3.3) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from −2.3 to −0.2) across China. The P elasticity is larger in northeast and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. The catchment properties elasticity of R appears to have a strong non-linear relationship with the mean annual aridity index and tends to be more significant in more arid regions. For the period 1960–2012, the climate contribution to R ranges from −2.4 % a−1 to 3.3 % a−1 across China, with the negative contribution in the North China plain and the positive contribution in western China and some parts of the southwest. The results of climate projections indicate that although there is large uncertainty involved in the 28 GCMs, most project a consistent change in P (or PET) in China at the annual scale. For the period 2071–2100, the mean annual P will likely increase in most parts of China, especially the western regions, while the mean annual PET will likely increase in all of China, particularly the southern regions. Furthermore, greater increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Overall, due to climate change, the arid regions and humid regions of China will likely become wetter and drier in the period 2071–2100, respectively (relative to the baseline 1971–2000).

scholarly journals Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 1971-1991 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuanhao Wu ◽  
Bill X. Hu ◽  
Guoru Huang ◽  
Peng Wang ◽  
Kai Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Aridity Index ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Western China ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Positive Contribution ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Mean

Abstract. China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the alteration of the temporal–spatial patterns of water resources. Based on the long-term (1960–2008) water budget data and climate projections from 28 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to historical and future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results show that there is a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.1 to 3.2) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from −2.2 to −0.1) across China. The P elasticity is larger in north-eastern and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. The catchment properties' elasticity of R appears to have a strong non-linear relationship with the mean annual aridity index and tends to be more significant in more arid regions. For the period 1960–2008, the climate contribution to R ranges from −2.4 to 3.6 % yr−1 across China, with the negative contribution in north-eastern China and the positive contribution in western China and some parts of the south-west. The results of climate projections indicate that although there is large uncertainty involved in the 28 GCMs, most project a consistent change in P (or PET) in China at the annual scale. For the period 2071–2100, the mean annual P is projected to increase in most parts of China, especially the western regions, while the mean annual PET is projected to increase in all of China, particularly the southern regions. Furthermore, greater increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Overall, due to climate change, the arid regions and humid regions of China are projected to become wetter and drier in the period 2071–2100, respectively (relative to the baseline 1971–2000).

scholarly journals Implications of Projected Hydroclimatic Change for Tularemia Outbreaks in High-Risk Areas across Sweden

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (18) ◽  
pp. 6786
Author(s):  
Yan Ma ◽  
Guillaume Vigouroux ◽  
Zahra Kalantari ◽  
Romain Goldenberg ◽  
Georgia Destouni
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Power Law ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Disease Outbreaks ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Site Specific ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Hydroclimatic Change

Hydroclimatic change may affect the range of some infectious diseases, including tularemia. Previous studies have investigated associations between tularemia incidence and climate variables, with some also establishing quantitative statistical disease models based on historical data, but studies considering future climate projections are scarce. This study has used and combined hydro-climatic projection outputs from multiple global climate models (GCMs) in phase six of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), and site-specific, parameterized statistical tularemia models, which all imply some type of power-law scaling with preceding-year tularemia cases, to assess possible future trends in disease outbreaks for six counties across Sweden, known to include tularemia high-risk areas. Three radiative forcing (emissions) scenarios are considered for climate change projection until year 2100, incuding low (2.6 Wm−2), medium (4.5 Wm−2), and high (8.5 Wm−2) forcing. The results show highly divergent changes in future disease outbreaks among Swedish counties, depending primarily on site-specific type of the best-fit disease power-law scaling characteristics of (mostly positive, in one case negative) sub- or super-linearity. Results also show that scenarios of steeper future climate warming do not necessarily lead to steeper increase of future disease outbreaks. Along a latitudinal gradient, the likely most realistic medium climate forcing scenario indicates future disease decreases (intermittent or overall) for the relatively southern Swedish counties Örebro and Gävleborg (Ockelbo), respectively, and disease increases of considerable or high degree for the intermediate (Dalarna, Gävleborg (Ljusdal)) and more northern (Jämtland, Norrbotten; along with the more southern Värmland exception) counties, respectively.

Climatology of Hail in China: 1961–2005

2008 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 795-804 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunxi Zhang ◽  
Qinghong Zhang ◽  
Yuqing Wang
Keyword(s):  
Southern China ◽  
Northern China ◽  
Western China ◽  
Mountainous Areas ◽  
Comprehensive Collection ◽  
Central Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Seasonal And Diurnal Variations ◽  
Information Center ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Made In

Abstract A previous hail climatology of China was based upon observations during 1951–60. An effort has been made in this study to update this hail climatology in China with the use of a much longer record of observations from 1961 to 2005. This is made possible with the release of a new, comprehensive collection of hail observational data in May 2006 by the National Meteorological Information Center of China. The focus herein is to document the mean annual geographical distribution of hail frequency and seasonal and diurnal variations of hail occurrence. The results show that hail occurs most frequently in the high mountainous areas and northern plains. As a result, hail frequency is generally higher in northern China than in southern China. The hail frequency is highest over the central Tibetan Plateau. Hail seasons start in late spring and end in early autumn in northern and western China; they start mainly in spring in southern and southwestern China. On the diurnal time scale, hail events occur mainly between 1500 and 2000 local time in most of China except in Guizhou and Hubei Provinces (central western China), where hail events often occur during nighttime.

scholarly journals Investigating future changes in Southern China precipitation characteristics based on dynamically downscaled CMIP5 climate projections

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ying Lung Liu ◽  
Chi-Yung Tam ◽  
Sai Ming Lee
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Annual Number ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Mean

<p>In this study, general circulation model (GCM) products were dynamically downscaled using the Regional Climate Model system version 4 (RegCM4), in order to study changes in the hydrological cycle - including extreme events - due to a warmer climate by the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century over Southern China. The performance of 22 GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the climate over the East Asian- western north Pacific region was first evaluated. It was found that MPI-ESM-MR, CNRM-CM5, ACCESS1-3, and GFDL- CM3 can reasonably reproduce the seasonal mean atmospheric circulation in that region, as well as its interannual variability. Outputs from these GCMs were subsequently downscaled, using the RegCM4, to a horizontal resolution of 25 km × 25km, for the period of 1979 to 2003, and also from 2050 to 2099, with the latter based on GCM projection according to the RCP8.5 scenario. Results show that the whole domain would undergo warming at the lower troposphere by 3 – 4 °C over inland China and ~2 °C over the ocean and low-latitude locations. Compared to the 1979-2003 era, during 2050-2099 boreal summer, the mean precipitation is projected to increase by 1 – 2 mm/day over coastal Southern China. There is also significantly enhanced interannual variability for the same season. In boreal spring, a similar increase in both the seasonal mean and also its year-to-year variations is also found, over more inland locations at about 25°N. Extreme daily precipitation is projected to become more intense, based on analyses of the 95<sup>th</sup> percentile for these seasons. On the other hand, it will be significantly drier during autumn over a broad area in Southern China: the mean rainfall is projected to decrease by ~1 mm/day. In addition, changes in the annual number of consecutive dry days (CDD) throughout the whole calendar year was also examined. It was found that CDD over the more inland locations will increase by ~5 days. Thus, there will be a lengthening of the dry season in the region. Global warming’s potential impact on sub-daily rainfall is also examined. For the rainfall diurnal cycle (DC), there is no significant change in both spatial and temporal patterns. Moisture budget analyses are also carried out, in order to ascertain the importance of change in background moisture, versus that in wind circulation, on the intensification of MAM and JJA mean rainfall as well as their interannual variability. The implication of these results on water management and climate change adaptation over the Southern China region will be discussed.</p>

scholarly journals Can we trust empirical marine DMS parameterisations within projections of future climate?

2010 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 1645-1656 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. R. Halloran ◽  
T. G. Bell ◽  
I. J. Totterdell
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Feedback ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Aerosol Formation ◽  
System Models ◽  
Annual Variability ◽  
Earth System Models

Abstract. Dimethylsulphide (DMS) is a globally important aerosol precurser. In 1987 Charlson and others proposed that an increase in DMS production by certain phytoplankton species in response to a warming climate could stimulate increased aerosol formation, increasing the lower-atmosphere's albedo, and promoting cooling. Despite two decades of research, the global significance of this negative climate feedback remains contentious. It is therefore imperative that schemes are developed and tested, which allow for the realistic incorporation of phytoplankton DMS production into Earth System models. Using these models we can investigate the DMS-climate feedback and reduce uncertainty surrounding projections of future climate. Here we examine two empirical DMS parameterisations within the context of an Earth System model and find them to perform marginally better than the standard DMS climatology at predicting observations from an independent global dataset. We then question whether parameterisations based on our present understanding of DMS production by phytoplankton, and simple enough to incorporate into global climate models, can be shown to enhance the future predictive capacity of those models. This is an important question to ask now, as results from increasingly complex Earth System models lead us into the 5th assessment of climate science by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Comparing observed and predicted inter-annual variability, we suggest that future climate projections may underestimate the magnitude of surface ocean DMS change. Unfortunately this conclusion relies on a relatively small dataset, in which observed inter-annual variability may be exaggerated by biases in sample collection. We therefore encourage the observational community to make repeat measurements of sea-surface DMS concentrations an important focus, and highlight areas of apparent high inter-annual variability where sampling might be carried out. Finally, we assess future projections from two similarly valid empirical DMS schemes, and demonstrate contrasting results. We therefore conclude that the use of empirical DMS parameterisations within simulations of future climate should be undertaken only with careful appreciation of the caveats discussed.

scholarly journals Prevalence of Corneal Astigmatism in Patients before Cataract Surgery in Western China

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
Wei Ma ◽  
Chengguo Zuo ◽  
Weirong Chen ◽  
Shaoyang Zheng ◽  
Jiangang Xu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cataract Surgery ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Cross Sectional Study ◽  
Corneal Astigmatism ◽  
Partial Coherence ◽  
Western China ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Autonomous Region ◽  
Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region ◽  
The Mean

Purpose. To investigate the demographics and distribution of corneal astigmatism before cataract surgery in patients from western China and to compare and analyze these findings with those of patients in southern China. Setting. People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Design. Clinical-based cross-sectional study. Methods. Patients undergoing cataract surgery in the People’s Hospital of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from February 2012 to August 2019 were recruited. Preoperative keratometric data measured by performing preoperative bilateral partial coherence interferometry (IOLMaster), and patient demographics were recorded and analyzed. Results. This study comprised 12,236 eyes of 7065 patients with a mean age of 64.75 ± 9.66 years, and 52.77% of the patients were female. The mean axial length was 23.14 ± 0.96 mm. Astigmatism ranged from 0 diopters (D) to 6.94 D, with a mean of 1.28 D. Corneal astigmatism was between 0.25 D and 1.25 D in 53.71% of eyes, 1.25 D or higher in 39.06% eyes, and less than 0.25 D in 7.23% of eyes. Astigmatism was with the rule (WTR) in 41.94% of the patients and against the rule (ATR) in 38.80% of patients. The mean flat and steep keratometry measurement was 43.19 ± 1.50 D and 44.24 ± 1.62 D, respectively. After matching, corneal astigmatism in western China was 1.30 ± 1.03 D, and it was significantly higher than that in southern China (0.98 ± 0.67 D, P<0.001). After matching, the proportion of WTR astigmatism was 40.99% in western China, which was also significantly higher than the proportion (26.46%) in southern China (P<0.001). Conclusion. Corneal astigmatism in patients before cataract surgery in western China was mainly between 0.25 D and 1.25 D. Compared with patients in southern China, patients in western China are younger, have a much higher degree of astigmatism, and have a higher proportion of WTR astigmatism.

scholarly journals Long-Term Climate Variability in the Mediterranean Region

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (11) ◽  
pp. 1172
Author(s):  
M. Carmen Alvarez-Castro ◽  
Pedro Ribera
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Mediterranean Region ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Special Issue ◽  
Past Climate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Evolution ◽  
The Mediterranean

The Mediterranean region is an area where prediction at different timescales (subseasonal to decadal or even longer) is challenging. In order to help constrain future projections, the study of past climate is crucial. By improving our knowledge about the past and current climate, our confidence in understanding the future climate will be improved. In this Special Issue, information about long-term climate variability in the Mediterranean region is assessed, including in particular historical climatology and model applications to assess past climate variability, present climate evolution, and future climate projections. The seven articles included in this Special Issue explore observations, proxies, re-analyses, and models for assessing the main characteristics, processes, and variability of the Mediterranean climate. The temporal range of these articles not only covers a wide period going from the present day to as far back as 25 centuries into the past but also covers projections of future climate over the next century.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Irrigation over China: Sensitivity to Adjusted Projections

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 2085-2103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoyong Leng ◽  
Qiuhong Tang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Because of the limitations of coarse-resolution general circulation models (GCMs), delta change (DC) methods are generally used to derive scenarios of future climate as inputs into impact models. In this paper, the impact of future climate change on irrigation was investigated over China using the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4), which was calibrated against observed irrigation water demand (IWD) at the provincial level. The results show large differences in projected changes of IWD variability, extremes, timing, and regional responses between the DC and bias-corrected (BC) methods. For example, 95th-percentile IWD increased by 62% in the BC method compared to only a 28% increase in the DC method. In addition, a shift of seasonal IWD peaks (averaged over the country) to one month later in the year was projected when using the BC method, whereas no evident changes were predicted when using the DC method. Furthermore, low-percentile runoff has larger impacts in the BC method compared with proportional changes in the DC method, indicating that hydrological droughts seem to be exacerbated by increased climate variability. The discrepancies between the two methods were potentially due to the inability of the DC method to capture the changes in precipitation variability. Therefore, the authors highlight the potential effects of climate variability and the sensitivity to the choice of particular strategy-adjusting climate projection in assessing climate change impacts on irrigation. Some caveats, however, should be placed around interpretation of simulated percentage changes for all of China since a large model bias was found in southern China.

An Analysis of Cloud-to-Ground Lightning in China during 2010–13

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (6) ◽  
pp. 1537-1550 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xinlin Yang ◽  
Jianhua Sun ◽  
Wanli Li
Keyword(s):  
Southern China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Cold Season ◽  
Western China ◽  
Southeastern China ◽  
The Mean ◽  
High Elevations ◽  
Cg Lightning

Abstract The cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning data being detected by the China Lightning Detection Network between 2010 and 2013 are employed to gain insight into the spatial and temporal distribution of CG lightning in China. There are clear interannual and seasonal variations of CG lightning activity. The mean total CG and positive CG (PCG) flashes in 2010–13 are approximately 6.44 million and 0.42 million, respectively, and the mean percentage of PCG (PPCG) is 6.6%. CG and PCG flashes predominately occur during summer, with August being the peak month for CG and June for PCG. PPCG in the cold season is considerably greater than in the warm season; its maximum of 56.2% is in January and the minimum value of 4.0% is found in August. The centers of maximum mean annual CG density are scattered throughout southern China, the Sichuan basin, and the south of Jiangsu Province. The CG density in the high elevations and arid regions of western China is less than that in the low elevations and coastal regions of southeastern China. In addition, daily CG density and CG lightning days in southeastern China are greater than in northwestern China, but PPCG in western China is apparently greater than that in eastern China. Areas experiencing more than 30 CG lightning days per year are primarily south of 30°N, with 10–30 lightning days per year in northern and northeastern China, and approximately 10–20 lightning days per year over the central Tibetan Plateau.

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