scholarly journals Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Paul Zischg ◽  
Guido Felder ◽  
Rolf Weingartner ◽  
Niall Quinn ◽  
Gemma Coxon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Infrastructure Management ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood ◽  
Flood Losses ◽  
Model Chain

Abstract. The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrologic and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below other uncertainties in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte-Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure and vulnerability, contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organisation of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

scholarly journals Effects of variability in probable maximum precipitation patterns on flood losses

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
pp. 2759-2773 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreas Paul Zischg ◽  
Guido Felder ◽  
Rolf Weingartner ◽  
Niall Quinn ◽  
Gemma Coxon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Spatial Organization ◽  
Critical Infrastructure ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Infrastructure Management ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Patterns ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood ◽  
Flood Losses

Abstract. The assessment of the impacts of extreme floods is important for dealing with residual risk, particularly for critical infrastructure management and for insurance purposes. Thus, modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) from probable maximum precipitation (PMP) by coupling hydrological and hydraulic models has gained interest in recent years. Herein, we examine whether variability in precipitation patterns exceeds or is below selected uncertainty factors in flood loss estimation and if the flood losses within a river basin are related to the probable maximum discharge at the basin outlet. We developed a model experiment with an ensemble of probable maximum precipitation scenarios created by Monte Carlo simulations. For each rainfall pattern, we computed the flood losses with a model chain and benchmarked the effects of variability in rainfall distribution with other model uncertainties. The results show that flood losses vary considerably within the river basin and depend on the timing and superimposition of the flood peaks from the basin's sub-catchments. In addition to the flood hazard component, the other components of flood risk, exposure, and vulnerability contribute remarkably to the overall variability. This leads to the conclusion that the estimation of the probable maximum expectable flood losses in a river basin should not be based exclusively on the PMF. Consequently, the basin-specific sensitivities to different precipitation patterns and the spatial organization of the settlements within the river basin need to be considered in the analyses of probable maximum flood losses.

scholarly journals Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) Analysis for Bakun Dam Area

2011 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 53-59
Author(s):  
Yiau S.S. ◽  
F.J. Putuhena
Keyword(s):  
Catchment Area ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Design Criterion ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Dam Construction ◽  
Research Publication ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood ◽  
The One

Probable Maximum Precipitation is defined as the greatest depth of precipitation which is possible for a given time and duration over a given size storm area under known meteorological conditions. This concept has been used as design criterion of major flood control measures such as spillways of large dams worldwide. It is essential for the generation of Probable Maximum Flood. This paper represents the results of PMP analysis for Bakun Dam Area which has a catchment area of 14,750 km2. Three sets of results were produced, i.e. by statistical method (with frequency factors from World Meteorological Organization manual and National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia in Technical Research Publication No. 1 (TRP 1)) for duration of 1 hour, 8 hours, 24 hours and daily and by experimental method for production of daily PMP. The results were compared with each other and the one made by Sarawak Electricity Supply Corporation on Bakun Dam construction. The set of PMP values results from substitution of Km developed by NAHRIM was concluded to be the most reliable results as daily PMP (276mm) was consistent with the one (280mm) produced by SESCO. However, 6 days PMP value (950mm) done by SESCO was recommended as the Bakun Dam Area cover huge catchment area which higher duration of PMP value should be applied .

scholarly journals Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) Using GSSHA Model (Case Study Area Upper Citarum Watershed)

2021 ◽  
Vol 893 (1) ◽  
pp. 012023
Author(s):  
Puji R A Sibuea ◽  
Dewi R Agriamah ◽  
Edi Riawan ◽  
Rusmawan Suwarman ◽  
Atika Lubis
Keyword(s):  
Model Simulation ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Model Case ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Hydrologic Analysis ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) used in the design of hydrological structures reliabilities and safety which its value is obtained from the Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). The objectives of this study are to estimate PMP and PMF value in Upper Citarum Watershed and understand the impact from different PMP value to PMF value with two scenarios those are Scenario A and B. Scenario A will calculate the PMP value from each Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) rainfall data grid and Scenario B calculate the PMP value from the mean area rainfall. PMP value will be obtained by the statistical Hershfield method, and the PMF will be obtained by employed the PMP value as the input data in Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA) hydrologic model. Model simulation results for PMF hydrographs from both scenarios show that spatial distribution of rainfall in the Upper Citarum watershed will affect the calculated discharge and whether Scenario A or B can be applied in the study area for PMP duration equal or higher than 72 hours. PMF peak discharge for Scenario A is averagely 13,12% larger than Scenario B.

Évaluation des méthodes utilisées pour l'estimation de la crue maximale probable en régions nordiques

1999 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 355-367 ◽  
Author(s):  
I Debs ◽  
D Sparks ◽  
J Rousselle ◽  
S Birikundavyi
Keyword(s):  
Return Period ◽  
Extreme Event ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Model Estimation ◽  
Hydrologic Response ◽  
Return Periods ◽  
Design Flood ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood

Among all existing methods for estimating extreme floods, the probable maximum flood method is the safest, since it is a flood with a probability of excedance that is theoretically zero. In the early 1970s, this flood was calculated as the combination of the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and the probable maximum snow accumulation (PMSA). In the 1990s, this combination has been considered to be highly improbable. Experts advise against combining two maximized events and, instead, recommend combining one maximized event with a relatively typical extreme event. This article presents a sensitivity analysis on the return period to be used for the typical extreme event to be combined with the maximized event to obtain a "more realistic" PMF. To achieve this, all the steps of a PMF study were reviewed and applied to the Sainte-Marguerite watershed, i.e., calibration and (or) validation of SSARR model, estimation of the PMP, the PMSA, and the temperature sequence. Different flood scenarios have been simulated including accumulated snowfall corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, and 500 years, followed by PMP and PMSA, followed by precipitation corresponding to return periods of 50, 100, and 500 years. It has been noticed that the use of a return period of 50, 100, or 500 years, to represent the unmaximized extreme event, has little effect on the hydrologic response of the basin. Based on the results of this work the use of a return period of 100 years is recommended.Key words: probable maximum flood, probable maximum precipitation, probable maximum snow accumulation, design flood, SSARR model.

scholarly journals Estimation of Extreme Precipitation in Norway

1989 ◽  
Vol 20 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 257-276 ◽  
Author(s):  
E.J. Førland ◽  
D. Kristoffersen
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Probable Maximum Flood

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) is an important parameter for estimation of Probable Maximum Flood. This paper describes results of PMP estimation by different methods, both meteorological and statistical. A survey of the highest recorded rainfall values in Norway is also presented.

scholarly journals Estimating Probable Maximum Precipitation for Linau River Basin in Sarawak

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
M. Hussain ◽  
S. Nadya ◽  
F.J. Chia
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Method ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Public Safety ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Hydraulic Modeling ◽  
Rain Gauge ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Probable Maximum Precipitation ◽  
Maximum Precipitation ◽  
The Impact

 The probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is the greatest depth of precipitation for a given duration that is physically possible over a given size storm area at a particular geographical location at a certain time of the year. PMP is very important to be considered for the design of river regulating structures i.e Dams and Barrages to overcome any possible chance of overtopping failure as well as for public safety and hazards downstream of any of these structures. Especially if these structures located in the upstream of the of the populated town or city than the failure could damage severely such areas. As such the PMP convention is always a requirement as primary design dam/reservoir criteria when public safety is of concern. The PMP is used to derive Probable Maximum Flood (PMF), which further used in hydraulic modeling to check the impact assessments for such occasions. This paper focuses on estimation of PMP for Linau River Basin in Sarawak using statistical method proposed by World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which is described in its operational manual. Long Lidam and Long Laku are located in Linau River Basin but Long Laku has long discontinuity in the data set thus the rainfall series at Long Lidam is further used for PMP estimation. The missing data was in-filled using Belaga rain gauge station as Long Lidam rainfall has good correlation with Belaga rainfall data. Hershfield statistical method has been adopted to estimate the 24-hour duration PMP. The Probable Maximum Precipitation for 24-hour duration storm is estimated as 691 mm for the Linau River Basin.

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