scholarly journals Climate change over the high-mountain versus plain areas: Effects on the land surface hydrologic budget in the Alpine area and northern Italy

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Cassardo ◽  
Seon Ki Park ◽  
Marco Galli ◽  
Sungmin O
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Transfer Scheme ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Alpine Area

Abstract. Climate change may intensify during the second half of the current century. Changes in temperature and precipitation can exert a significant impact on the regional hydrologic cycle. Because the land surface serves as the hub of interactions among the variables constituting the energy and water cycles, evaluating the land surface processes is essential to detail the future climate. In this study, we employ a trusted Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer scheme, called the University of Torino model of land Processes Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA), in offline simulations to quantify the hydrologic components changes in the Alpine area and northern Italy, on the basis of regional future climate (FC) conditions produced by the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) via the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios. In FCs, the evapotranspiration generally increases, especially over the plain areas, and consequently the surface soil moisture decreases during summer, falling below the wilting point threshold for one more month compared to present climate. In the high-mountain areas, due to the earlier snow melting, the land surface becomes snowless for an additional month. The annual mean number of dry (wet) days increase remarkably (slightly) in FCs; thus increasing the risk of severe droughts, and slightly increasing the risk of floods coincidently. Our results have serious implications on human life, including agricultural production, water sustainability and general infrastructures, and can be used to plan the managements of water resources, floods, irrigation, forestry, hydropower, and many other relevant activities.

scholarly journals Climate change over the high-mountain versus plain areas: Effects on the land surface hydrologic budget in the Alpine area and northern Italy

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 3331-3350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudio Cassardo ◽  
Seon Ki Park ◽  
Marco Galli ◽  
Sungmin O
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Alpine Area

Abstract. Climate change may intensify during the second half of the current century. Changes in temperature and precipitation can exert a significant impact on the regional hydrologic cycle. Because the land surface serves as the hub of interactions among the variables constituting the energy and water cycles, evaluating the land surface processes is essential to detail the future climate. In this study, we employ a trusted soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer scheme, called the University of Torino model of land Processes Interaction with Atmosphere (UTOPIA), in offline simulations to quantify the changes in hydrologic components in the Alpine area and northern Italy, between the period of 1961–1990 and 2071–2100. The regional climate projections are obtained by the Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) via two emission scenarios – A2 and B2 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios. The hydroclimate projections, especially from A2, indicate that evapotranspiration generally increases, especially over the plain areas, and consequently the surface soil moisture decreases during summer, falling below the wilting point threshold for an extra month. In the high-mountain areas, due to the earlier snowmelt, the land surface becomes snowless for an additional month. The annual mean number of dry (wet) days increases remarkably (slightly), thus increasing the risk of severe droughts, and slightly increasing the risk of floods coincidently. Our results have serious implications for human life, including agricultural production, water sustainability, and general infrastructures, over the Alpine and adjacent plain areas and can be used to plan the managements of water resources, floods, irrigation, forestry, hydropower, and many other relevant activities.

scholarly journals Integrating dark diversity and functional traits to enhance nature conservation of epiphytic lichens: a case study from Northern Italy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Pires Ferraz Trindade ◽  
Meelis Pärtel ◽  
Carlos Pérez Carmona ◽  
Tiina Randlane ◽  
Juri Nascimbene
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Nature Conservation ◽  
Functional Traits ◽  
Growth Form ◽  
Northern Italy ◽  
Epiphytic Lichens ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
High Elevations ◽  
Harsh Conditions

AbstractMountains provide a timely opportunity to examine the potential effects of climate change on biodiversity. However, nature conservation in mountain areas have mostly focused on the observed part of biodiversity, not revealing the suitable but absent species—dark diversity. Dark diversity allows calculating the community completeness, indicating whether sites should be restored (low completeness) or conserved (high completeness). Functional traits can be added, showing what groups should be focused on. Here we assessed changes in taxonomic and functional observed and dark diversity of epiphytic lichens along elevational transects in Northern Italy spruce forests. Eight transects (900–1900 m) were selected, resulting in 48 plots and 240 trees, in which lichens were sampled using four quadrats per tree (10 × 50 cm). Dark diversity was estimated based on species co-occurrence (Beals index). We considered functional traits related to growth form, photobiont type and reproductive strategy. Linear and Dirichlet regressions were used to examine changes in taxonomic metrics and functional traits along gradient. Our results showed that all taxonomic metrics increased with elevation and functional traits of lichens differed between observed and dark diversity. At low elevations, due to low completeness and harsh conditions, both restoration and conservation activities are needed, focusing on crustose species. Towards high elevations, conservation is more important to prevent species pool losses, focusing on macrolichens, lichens with Trentepohlia and sexual reproduction. Finally, dark diversity and functional traits provide a novel tool to enhance nature conservation, indicating particular threatened groups, creating windows of opportunities to protect species from both local and regional extinctions.

scholarly journals Regionalization of Climate Change Simulations over the Eastern Mediterranean

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1944-1961 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bariş Önol ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
The Future

Abstract In this study, the potential role of global warming in modulating the future climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region has been investigated. The primary vehicle of this investigation is the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 3 (ICTP-RegCM3), which was used to downscale the present and future climate scenario simulations generated by the NASA’s finite-volume GCM (fvGCM). The present-day (1961–90; RF) simulations and the future climate change projections (2071–2100; A2) are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. During the Northern Hemispheric winter season, the general increase in precipitation over the northern sector of the EM region is present both in the fvGCM and RegCM3 model simulations. The regional model simulations reveal a significant increase (10%–50%) in winter precipitation over the Carpathian Mountains and along the east coast of the Black Sea, over the Kackar Mountains, and over the Caucasus Mountains. The large decrease in precipitation over the southeastern Turkey region that recharges the Euphrates and Tigris River basins could become a major source of concern for the countries downstream of this region. The model results also indicate that the autumn rains, which are primarily confined over Turkey for the current climate, will expand into Syria and Iraq in the future, which is consistent with the corresponding changes in the circulation pattern. The climate change over EM tends to manifest itself in terms of the modulation of North Atlantic Oscillation. During summer, temperature increase is as large as 7°C over the Balkan countries while changes for the rest of the region are in the range of 3°–4°C. Overall the temperature increase in summer is much greater than the corresponding changes during winter. Presentation of the climate change projections in terms of individual country averages is highly advantageous for the practical interpretation of the results. The consistence of the country averages for the RF RegCM3 projections with the corresponding averaged station data is compelling evidence of the added value of regional climate model downscaling.

scholarly journals Regional Climate Model Emulator based on Deep Learning: Concept and First Evaluation of a Novel Hybrid Downscaling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Doury ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Sébastien Gadat ◽  
Aurélien Ribes ◽  
Lola Corre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
The Way

Abstract Providing reliable information on climate change at local scale remains a challenge of first importance for impact studies and policymakers. Here, we propose a novel hybrid downscaling method combining the strengths of both empirical statistical downscaling methods and Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The aim of this tool is to enlarge the size of high-resolution RCM simulation ensembles at low cost.We build a statistical RCM-emulator by estimating the downscaling function included in the RCM. This framework allows us to learn the relationship between large-scale predictors and a local surface variable of interest over the RCM domain in present and future climate. Furthermore, the emulator relies on a neural network architecture, which grants computational efficiency. The RCM-emulator developed in this study is trained to produce daily maps of the near-surface temperature at the RCM resolution (12km). The emulator demonstrates an excellent ability to reproduce the complex spatial structure and daily variability simulated by the RCM and in particular the way the RCM refines locally the low-resolution climate patterns. Training in future climate appears to be a key feature of our emulator. Moreover, there is a huge computational benefit in running the emulator rather than the RCM, since training the emulator takes about 2 hours on GPU, and the prediction is nearly instantaneous. However, further work is needed to improve the way the RCM-emulator reproduces some of the temperature extremes, the intensity of climate change, and to extend the proposed methodology to different regions, GCMs, RCMs, and variables of interest.

scholarly journals Changes to the tropical circulation in the mid-Pliocene and their implications for future climate

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 135-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shawn Corvec ◽  
Christopher G. Fletcher
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Walker Circulation ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Future Projections

Abstract. The two components of the tropical overturning circulation, the meridional Hadley circulation (HC) and the zonal Walker circulation (WC), are key to the re-distribution of moisture, heat and mass in the atmosphere. The mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ∼ 3.3–3 Ma) is considered a very rough analogue of near-term future climate change, yet changes to the tropical overturning circulations in the mPWP are poorly understood. Here, climate model simulations from the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) are analyzed to show that the tropical overturning circulations in the mPWP were weaker than preindustrial circulations, just as they are projected to be in future climate change. The weakening HC response is consistent with future projections, and its strength is strongly related to the meridional gradient of sea surface warming between the tropical and subtropical oceans. The weakening of the WC is less robust in PlioMIP than in future projections, largely due to inter-model variations in simulated warming of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). When the TIO warms faster (slower) than the tropical mean, local upper tropospheric divergence increases (decreases) and the WC weakens less (more). These results provide strong evidence that changes to the tropical overturning circulation in the mPWP and future climate are primarily controlled by zonal (WC) and meridional (HC) gradients in tropical–subtropical sea surface temperatures.

scholarly journals Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5367-5390 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Kelly ◽  
P. A. Makar ◽  
D. A. Plummer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
North American ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Ammonia Emissions

Abstract. Ten year simulations of North American current and future air-quality were carried out using a regional air-quality model driven by a regional climate model, in turn driven by a general circulation model. Three separate summer scenarios were performed: a scenario representing the years 1997 to 2006, and two SRES A2 climate scenarios for the years 2041 to 2050. The first future climate scenario makes use of 2002 anthropogenic precursor emissions, and the second applied emissions scaling factors derived from the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP 6) scenario to estimate emissions for 2050 from existing 2020 projections. Ten-year averages of ozone and PM2.5 at North American monitoring network stations were used to evaluate the model's current chemical climatology. The model was found to have a similar performance for ozone as when driven by an operational weather forecast model. The PM2.5 predictions had larger negative biases, likely resulting from the absence of rainwater evaporation, and from sub-regional negative biases in the surface temperature fields, in the version of the climate model used here. The differences between the two future climate simulations and the current climate simulation were used to predict the changes to air-quality that might be expected in a future warmer climate, if anthropogenic precursor emissions remain constant at their current levels, versus if the RCP 6 emissions controls were adopted. Metrics of concentration, human health, and ecosystem damage were compared for the simulations. The scenario with future climate and current anthropogenic emissions resulted in worse air-quality than for current conditions – that is, the effect of climate-change alone, all other factors being similar, would be a worsening of air-quality. These effects are spatially inhomogeneous, with the magnitude and sign of the changes varying with region. The scenario with future climate and RCP 6 emissions for 2050 resulted in an improved air-quality, with decreases in key pollutant concentrations, in acute human mortality associated with air-pollution, and in sulphur and ozone deposition to the ecosystem. The positive outcomes of the RCP 6 emissions reductions were found to be of greater magnitude than the negative outcomes of climate change alone. The RCP 6 scenario however resulted in an increase in the deposition of nitrogen, as a result of increased ammonia emissions expected in that scenario, compared to current ammonia emissions levels. The results of the study raise the possibility that simultaneous reductions of greenhouse gases and air pollution precursors may further reduce air pollution levels, with the added benefits of an immediate reduction in the impacts of air pollution on human and ecosystem health. Further scenarios to investigate this possibility are therefore recommended.

The Common Land Model

2003 ◽  
Vol 84 (8) ◽  
pp. 1013-1024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongjiu Dai ◽  
Xubin Zeng ◽  
Robert E. Dickinson ◽  
Ian Baker ◽  
Gordon B. Bonan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Transfer Scheme ◽  
Soil System ◽  
Common Land Model ◽  
The Common ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Ice Water

The Common Land Model (CLM) was developed for community use by a grassroots collaboration of scientists who have an interest in making a general land model available for public use and further development. The major model characteristics include enough unevenly spaced layers to adequately represent soil temperature and soil moisture, and a multilayer parameterization of snow processes; an explicit treatment of the mass of liquid water and ice water and their phase change within the snow and soil system; a runoff parameterization following the TOPMODEL concept; a canopy photo synthesis-conductance model that describes the simultaneous transfer of CO2 and water vapor into and out of vegetation; and a tiled treatment of the subgrid fraction of energy and water balance. CLM has been extensively evaluated in offline mode and coupling runs with the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). The results of two offline runs, presented as examples, are compared with observations and with the simulation of three other land models [the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS), Bonan's Land Surface Model (LSM), and the 1994 version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics LSM (IAP94)].

scholarly journals Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing: an emulator-based approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 205-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Bounceur ◽  
M. Crucifix ◽  
R. D. Wilkinson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Global Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Principal Component ◽  
Arctic Region ◽  
Global Sensitivity ◽  
Oscillatory Pattern ◽  
Astronomical Forcing

Abstract. A global sensitivity analysis is performed to describe the effects of astronomical forcing on the climate–vegetation system simulated by the model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM in interglacial conditions. The methodology relies on the estimation of sensitivity measures, using a Gaussian process emulator as a fast surrogate of the climate model, calibrated on a set of well-chosen experiments. The outputs considered are the annual mean temperature and precipitation and the growing degree days (GDD). The experiments were run on two distinct land surface schemes to estimate the importance of vegetation feedbacks on climate variance. This analysis provides a spatial description of the variance due to the factors and their combinations, in the form of "fingerprints" obtained from the covariance indices. The results are broadly consistent with the current under-standing of Earth's climate response to the astronomical forcing. In particular, precession and obliquity are found to contribute in LOVECLIM equally to GDD in the Northern Hemisphere, and the effect of obliquity on the response of Southern Hemisphere temperature dominates precession effects. Precession dominates precipitation changes in subtropical areas. Compared to standard approaches based on a small number of simulations, the methodology presented here allows us to identify more systematically regions susceptible to experiencing rapid climate change in response to the smooth astronomical forcing change. In particular, we find that using interactive vegetation significantly enhances the expected rates of climate change, specifically in the Sahel (up to 50% precipitation change in 1000 years) and in the Canadian Arctic region (up to 3° in 1000 years). None of the tested astronomical configurations were found to induce multiple steady states, but, at low obliquity, we observed the development of an oscillatory pattern that has already been reported in LOVECLIM. Although the mathematics of the analysis are fairly straightforward, the emulation approach still requires considerable care in its implementation. We discuss the effect of the choice of length scales and the type of emulator, and estimate uncertainties associated with specific computational aspects, to conclude that the principal component emulator is a good option for this kind of application.

scholarly journals Reconciling Mountain Biodiversity Conservation in a Changing Climate: A Hindu Kush-Himalayan Perspective

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-27
Author(s):  
Nakul Chettri
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biodiversity Conservation ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Common Good ◽  
Economic Resilience ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Hindu Kush ◽  
Cooperative Agreements ◽  
Mountain Development

Mountains occupy 24% of the global land surface area and are home to 12% of the world’s population. They have ecological, aesthetic, and socioeconomic significance, not only for those living in mountain areas, but also for people living beyond. The Hindu Kush-Himalayan region (HKH) expanding to over four million square kilometres is endowed with rich biodiversity, culture, and sources of varied goods and services that serve more than 200 million people living in the region and 1.3 billion people living in the river basins receive services from them. The countries sharing the HKH have set aside 39% of the biodiversity rich area for different systems of protection. However, in the recent years, the HKH is facing numerous drivers of environmental change including climate change. Various studies suggest that warming in the HKH has been much higher than the global average over the last 100 years and the HKH is already facing climate change threats at ecoregions, ecosystems and species levels. While climate change is a global problem requiring a global solution, the HKH countries have initiated various reconciling initiatives to link conservation with climate change for enhancing ecological and socio-economic resilience. However, there is serious paucity of expertise, capacity and data on climate change as well as biodiversity in the HKH bringing challenges in enhancing the resilience. Considering the significance of the HKH on local, regional, and global levels, it is imperative to close the gaps to meet the challenges arising from the consequences of climate change. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), with its partners, has conceptualised a number of innovative conservation approaches with an objective to reconcile biodiversity conservation goals with climate change challenges. These conservation approaches have a huge potential for mutual benefits from the common good practices, resources and expertise and there is a need for more formal cooperative agreements between the various institutions and communities of the countries at the regional level for addressing regional issues of conservation in the changing climate.Conservation Science Vol.2(1) 2014: 17-27  

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