scholarly journals Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingcai Liu ◽  
Qiuhong Tang ◽  
Nathalie Voisin ◽  
Huijuan Cui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Central China ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
South Central ◽  
Hydropower Potential

Abstract. Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs) forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projected to change by −1.7 to 2% in the near future (2020–2050) and increase by 3 to 6 % in the late 21st century (2070–2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by −2.2 to −5.4 % (0.7–1.7 % of the total installed hydropower capacity [IHC]) and −1.3 to −4% (0.4–1.3 % of total IHC) for 2020–2050 and 2070–2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China, but decrease in southern China – mostly in South-Central China and Eastern China – where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in Southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multi-model assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China.

scholarly journals Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China

2016 ◽  
Vol 20 (8) ◽  
pp. 3343-3359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xingcai Liu ◽  
Qiuhong Tang ◽  
Nathalie Voisin ◽  
Huijuan Cui
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Central China ◽  
South Central ◽  
Socioeconomic Analysis ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
Regulation Model

Abstract. Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs), including a large-scale reservoir regulation model, forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projected to change by −1.7 to 2 % in the near future (2020–2050) and increase by 3 to 6 % in the late 21st century (2070–2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by −2.2 to −5.4 % (0.7–1.7 % of the total installed hydropower capacity (IHC)) and −1.3 to −4 % (0.4–1.3 % of total IHC) for 2020–2050 and 2070–2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China but decrease in southern China – mostly in south central China and eastern China – where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multimodel assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China, to be further combined with a socioeconomic analysis for strategic expansion.

Beneficial impacts of climate change on pastoral and broadacre agriculture in cool-temperate Tasmania

2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 194 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. C. Phelan ◽  
D. Parsons ◽  
S. N. Lisson ◽  
G. K. Holz ◽  
N. D. MacLeod
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Wheat Crop ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Diverse Range ◽  
Wheat Production ◽  
Elevated Atmospheric Co2

Although geographically small, Tasmania has a diverse range of regional climates that are affected by different synoptic influences. Consequently, changes in climate variables and climate-change impacts will likely vary in different regions of the state. This study aims to quantify the regional effects of projected climate change on the productivity of rainfed pastoral and wheat crop systems at five sites across Tasmania. Projected climate data for each site were obtained from the Climate Futures for Tasmania project (CFT). Six General Circulation Models were dynamically downscaled to ~10-km grid cells using the CSIRO Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model under the A2 emissions scenario for the period 1961–2100. Mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures at each site are projected to increase from a baseline period (1981–2010) to 2085 (2071–2100) by 2.3–2.7°C. Mean annual rainfall is projected to increase slightly at all sites. Impacts on pasture and wheat production were simulated for each site using the projected CFT climate data. Mean annual pasture yields are projected to increase from the baseline to 2085 largely due to an increase in spring pasture growth. However, summer growth of temperate pasture species may become limited by 2085 due to greater soil moisture deficits. Wheat yields are also projected to increase, particularly at sites presently temperature-limited. This study suggests that increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric CO2 concentrations are likely to increase regional rainfed pasture and wheat production in the absence of any significant changes in rainfall patterns.

Simulated impact of climate change on hydrology of multiple watersheds using traditional and recommended snowmelt runoff model methodology

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 665-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emile Elias ◽  
Albert Rango ◽  
Caitriana M. Steele ◽  
John F. Mejia ◽  
Ruben Baca ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Application ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Snowmelt Runoff ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Runoff Model ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

For more than two decades researchers have utilized the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) to test the impacts of climate change on streamflow of snow-fed systems. SRM developers recommend a parameter shift during simulations of future climate, but this is often omitted. Here we show the impact of this omission on model results. In this study, the hydrological effects of climate change are modeled over three sequential years with typical and recommended SRM methodology. We predict the impacts of climate change on water resources of five subbasins of an arid region. Climate data are downscaled to weather stations. Period change analysis gives temperature and precipitation changes for 55 general circulation models which are then subsampled to produce four future states per basin. Results indicate an increase in temperature between 3.0 and 6.2 °C and an 18% decrease to 26% increase in precipitation. Without modifications to the snow runoff coefficient (cS), mean results across all basins range from a reduction in total volume of 21% to an increase of 4%. Modifications to cS resulted in a 0–10% difference in simulated annual volume. Future application of SRM should include a parameter shift representing the changed climate.

scholarly journals Potential evapotranspiration method influence on climate change impacts on river flow: a mid-latitude case study

2016 ◽  
Vol 47 (5) ◽  
pp. 951-963 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. P. Koedyk ◽  
D. G. Kingston
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
High Sensitivity ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Projected Changes

Projected changes in 21st century climate are likely to impact water resources substantially, although much uncertainty remains as to the nature of such impacts. A relatively under-explored source of uncertainty is the method by which current and scenario evapotranspiration (ET) are estimated. Using the Waikaia River (New Zealand) as a case study, the influence of a potential ET (PET) method is investigated for a scenario of a 2°C increase in global mean temperature (the presumed threshold of ‘dangerous’ climate change). Six PET methods are investigated, with five general circulation models (GCMs) used to provide an indication of GCM uncertainty. The HBV-Light hydrological model is used to simulate river runoff. Uncertainty in scenario PET between methods is generally greater than between GCMs, but the reverse is found for runoff. The cause of the reduction in uncertainty from PET to runoff is unclear: the catchment is not water-limited during the summer half-year, indicating that it is not because of actual ET failing to reach the potential rate. Irrespective of the cause, these results stand in contrast to previous estimations of relatively high sensitivity of runoff projections to PET methods, indicating that further work is required to understand the controls on this source of uncertainty.

Implications of climate change for water resources development in the Ganges basin

Water Policy ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (S1) ◽  
pp. 26-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Jeuland ◽  
Nagaraja Harshadeep ◽  
Jorge Escurra ◽  
Don Blackmore ◽  
Claudia Sadoff
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Gangetic Plain ◽  
Hydropower Potential ◽  
The Ganges

This paper presents the first basin-wide assessment of the potential impact of climate change on the hydrology and production of the Ganges system, undertaken as part of the World Bank's Ganges Strategic Basin Assessment. A series of modeling efforts – downscaling of climate projections, water balance calculations, hydrological simulation and economic optimization – inform the assessment. We find that projections of precipitation across the basin, obtained from 16 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-recognized General Circulation Models are highly variable, and lead to considerable differences in predictions of mean flows in the main stem of the Ganges and its tributaries. Despite uncertainties in predicted future flows, they are not, however, outside the range of natural variability in this basin, except perhaps at the tributary or sub-catchment levels. We also find that the hydropower potential associated with a set of 23 large dams in Nepal remains high across climate models, largely because annual flow in the tributary rivers greatly exceeds the storage capacities of these projects even in dry scenarios. The additional storage and smoothing of flows provided by these infrastructures translates into enhanced water availability in the dry season, but the relative value of this water for the purposes of irrigation in the Gangetic plain, and for low flow augmentation to Bangladesh under climate change, is unclear.

scholarly journals Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on Snow Distribution and River Flows in a Snow-Dominated Mountainous Watershed in the Western Hindukush–Himalaya, Afghanistan

Hydrology ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 74
Author(s):  
Abdul Haseeb Azizi ◽  
Yoshihiro Asaoka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
21St Century ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Snow Cover Area ◽  
River Flows ◽  
Late 21St Century ◽  
The Impact

Projected snow cover and river flows are important for planning and managing water resources in snow-dominated basins of the Himalayas. To quantify the impacts of climate change in the data scarce Panjshir River basin of Afghanistan, this study simulated present and future snow cover area (SCA) distributions with the snow model (SM), and river flows with the snowmelt runoff model (SRM). The SRM used the degree-day factor and precipitation gradient optimized by the SM to simulate river flows. Temperature and precipitation data from eight kinds of general circulation models (GCMs) were used for bias correction. The SM and SRM were first calibrated and validated using 2009–2015 data, and then bias-corrected future climate data were input to the models to simulate future SCA and river flows. Under both the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5, the annual average SCA and river flow were projected to decrease in the mid and late 21st century, although seasonal increases were simulated in some instances. Uncertainty ranges in projected SCA and river flow under RCP 8.5 were small in the mid 21st century and large in the late 21st century. Therefore, climate change is projected to alter high-altitude stream sources in the Hindukush mountains and reduce the amount of water reaching downstream areas.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Historical and Future Climate Data in the Texas High Plains

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (15) ◽  
pp. 6036
Author(s):  
Yong Chen ◽  
Gary W. Marek ◽  
Thomas H. Marek ◽  
Dana O. Porter ◽  
Jerry E. Moorhead ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Quality Data ◽  
High Plains ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Texas High Plains ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Agricultural production in the Texas High Plains (THP) relies heavily on irrigation and is susceptible to drought due to the declining availability of groundwater and climate change. Therefore, it is meaningful to perform an overview of possible climate change scenarios to provide appropriate strategies for climate change adaptation in the THP. In this study, spatio-temporal variations of climate data were mapped in the THP during 2000–2009, 2050–2059, and 2090–2099 periods using 14 research-grade meteorological stations and 19 bias-corrected General Circulation Models (GCMs) under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Results indicated different bias correction methods were needed for different climatic parameters and study purposes. For example, using high-quality data from the meteorological stations, the linear scaling method was selected to alter the projected precipitation while air temperatures were bias corrected using the quantile mapping method. At the end of the 21st century (2090–2099) under the severe CO2 emission scenario (RCP 8.5), the maximum and minimum air temperatures could increase from 3.9 to 10.0 °C and 2.8 to 8.4 °C across the entire THP, respectively, while precipitation could decrease by ~7.5% relative to the historical (2000–2009) observed data. However, large uncertainties were found according to 19 GCM projections.

scholarly journals Application of an Integrated SWAT–MODFLOW Model to Evaluate Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Water Withdrawals on Groundwater–Surface Water Interactions in West-Central Alberta

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 110 ◽  
Author(s):  
David Chunn ◽  
Monireh Faramarzi ◽  
Brian Smerdon ◽  
Daniel Alessi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
High Volume ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

It has become imperative that surface and groundwater resources be managed as a holistic system. This study applies a coupled groundwater–surface water (GW–SW) model, SWAT–MODFLOW, to study the hydrogeological conditions and the potential impacts of climate change and groundwater withdrawals on GW–SW interactions at a regional scale in western Canada. Model components were calibrated and validated using monthly river flow and hydraulic head data for the 1986–2007 period. Downscaled climate projections from five General Circulation Models (GCMs), under the RCP 8.5, for the 2010–2034 period, were incorporated into the calibrated model. The results demonstrated that GW–SW exchange in the upstream areas had the most pronounced fluctuation between the wet and dry months under historical conditions. While climate change was revealed to have a negligible impact in the GW–SW exchange pattern for the 2010–2034 period, the addition of pumping 21 wells at a rate of 4680 m3/d per well to support hypothetical high-volume water use by the energy sector significantly impacted the exchange pattern. The results showed that the total average discharge into the rivers was only slightly reduced from 1294 m3/d to 1174 m3/d; however, localized flowrate differences varied from under 5 m3/d to over 3000 m3/d in 320 of the 405 river cells. The combined potential impact is that intensive groundwater use may have more immediate effects on river flow than those of climate change, which has important implications for water resources management and for energy supply in the future.

scholarly journals Modeling the Impacts of Future Climate Change on Irrigation over China: Sensitivity to Adjusted Projections

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (5) ◽  
pp. 2085-2103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guoyong Leng ◽  
Qiuhong Tang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Because of the limitations of coarse-resolution general circulation models (GCMs), delta change (DC) methods are generally used to derive scenarios of future climate as inputs into impact models. In this paper, the impact of future climate change on irrigation was investigated over China using the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4), which was calibrated against observed irrigation water demand (IWD) at the provincial level. The results show large differences in projected changes of IWD variability, extremes, timing, and regional responses between the DC and bias-corrected (BC) methods. For example, 95th-percentile IWD increased by 62% in the BC method compared to only a 28% increase in the DC method. In addition, a shift of seasonal IWD peaks (averaged over the country) to one month later in the year was projected when using the BC method, whereas no evident changes were predicted when using the DC method. Furthermore, low-percentile runoff has larger impacts in the BC method compared with proportional changes in the DC method, indicating that hydrological droughts seem to be exacerbated by increased climate variability. The discrepancies between the two methods were potentially due to the inability of the DC method to capture the changes in precipitation variability. Therefore, the authors highlight the potential effects of climate variability and the sensitivity to the choice of particular strategy-adjusting climate projection in assessing climate change impacts on irrigation. Some caveats, however, should be placed around interpretation of simulated percentage changes for all of China since a large model bias was found in southern China.

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