scholarly journals The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: Experimental and analytical protocols

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam S. Rabin ◽  
Joe R. Melton ◽  
Gitta Lasslop ◽  
Dominique Bachelet ◽  
Matthew Forrest ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase 1 ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Fire Models ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
First Time ◽  
Model Structures

Abstract. The important role of fire in regulating vegetation community composition and contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols make it a critical component of dynamic global vegetation models and Earth system models. Over two decades of development, a wide variety of model structures and mechanisms have been designed and incorporated into global fire models, which have been linked to different vegetation models. However, there has not yet been a systematic examination of how these different strategies contribute to model performance. Here we describe the structure of the first phase of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), which for the first time seeks to systematically compare a number of models. By combining a standardized set of input data and model experiments with a rigorous comparison of model outputs to each other and to observations, we will improve the understanding of what drives vegetation fire, how it can best be simulated, and what new or improved observational data could allow better constraints on model behavior. Here we introduce the fire models used in the first phase of FireMIP, the simulation protocols applied, and the benchmarking system used to evaluate the models.

scholarly journals The Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), phase 1: experimental and analytical protocols with detailed model descriptions

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1175-1197 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam S. Rabin ◽  
Joe R. Melton ◽  
Gitta Lasslop ◽  
Dominique Bachelet ◽  
Matthew Forrest ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Phase 1 ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Detailed Model ◽  
Fire Models ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
First Time

Abstract. The important role of fire in regulating vegetation community composition and contributions to emissions of greenhouse gases and aerosols make it a critical component of dynamic global vegetation models and Earth system models. Over 2 decades of development, a wide variety of model structures and mechanisms have been designed and incorporated into global fire models, which have been linked to different vegetation models. However, there has not yet been a systematic examination of how these different strategies contribute to model performance. Here we describe the structure of the first phase of the Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP), which for the first time seeks to systematically compare a number of models. By combining a standardized set of input data and model experiments with a rigorous comparison of model outputs to each other and to observations, we will improve the understanding of what drives vegetation fire, how it can best be simulated, and what new or improved observational data could allow better constraints on model behavior. In this paper, we introduce the fire models used in the first phase of FireMIP, the simulation protocols applied, and the benchmarking system used to evaluate the models. We have also created supplementary tables that describe, in thorough mathematical detail, the structure of each model.

scholarly journals Calibration of the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vcmax) using data mining techniques and ecophysiological data from the Brazilian semiarid region, for use in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

2016 ◽  
Vol 76 (2) ◽  
pp. 341-351
Author(s):  
L. F. C. Rezende ◽  
B. C. Arenque-Musa ◽  
M. S. B. Moura ◽  
S. T. Aidar ◽  
C. Von Randow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Native Species ◽  
Classification And Regression Tree ◽  
Northeastern Brazil ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Global Changes ◽  
Data Mining Techniques ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation

Abstract The semiarid region of northeastern Brazil, the Caatinga, is extremely important due to its biodiversity and endemism. Measurements of plant physiology are crucial to the calibration of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) that are currently used to simulate the responses of vegetation in face of global changes. In a field work realized in an area of preserved Caatinga forest located in Petrolina, Pernambuco, measurements of carbon assimilation (in response to light and CO2) were performed on 11 individuals of Poincianella microphylla, a native species that is abundant in this region. These data were used to calibrate the maximum carboxylation velocity (Vcmax) used in the INLAND model. The calibration techniques used were Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), and data mining techniques as the Classification And Regression Tree (CART) and K-MEANS. The results were compared to the UNCALIBRATED model. It was found that simulated Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) reached 72% of observed GPP when using the calibrated Vcmax values, whereas the UNCALIBRATED approach accounted for 42% of observed GPP. Thus, this work shows the benefits of calibrating DGVMs using field ecophysiological measurements, especially in areas where field data is scarce or non-existent, such as in the Caatinga.

scholarly journals Modelling tropical forest responses to drought and El Niño with a stomatal optimization model based on xylem hydraulics

2018 ◽  
Vol 373 (1760) ◽  
pp. 20170315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cleiton B. Eller ◽  
Lucy Rowland ◽  
Rafael S. Oliveira ◽  
Paulo R. L. Bittencourt ◽  
Fernanda V. Barros ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Forest ◽  
El Niño ◽  
Optimization Model ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Soil Drought ◽  
Forest Sites ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation

The current generation of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) lacks a mechanistic representation of vegetation responses to soil drought, impairing their ability to accurately predict Earth system responses to future climate scenarios and climatic anomalies, such as El Niño events. We propose a simple numerical approach to model plant responses to drought coupling stomatal optimality theory and plant hydraulics that can be used in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). The model is validated against stand-scale forest transpiration ( E ) observations from a long-term soil drought experiment and used to predict the response of three Amazonian forest sites to climatic anomalies during the twentieth century. We show that our stomatal optimization model produces realistic stomatal responses to environmental conditions and can accurately simulate how tropical forest E responds to seasonal, and even long-term soil drought. Our model predicts a stronger cumulative effect of climatic anomalies in Amazon forest sites exposed to soil drought during El Niño years than can be captured by alternative empirical drought representation schemes. The contrasting responses between our model and empirical drought factors highlight the utility of hydraulically-based stomatal optimization models to represent vegetation responses to drought and climatic anomalies in DGVMs. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

scholarly journals Identifying required model structures to predict global fire activity from satellite and climate data

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Forkel ◽  
Wouter Dorigo ◽  
Gitta Lasslop ◽  
Irene Teubner ◽  
Emilio Chuvieco ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Human Society ◽  
Fire Emissions ◽  
Fire Models ◽  
Fire Activity ◽  
Process Oriented ◽  
Density And Biomass ◽  
Global Vegetation ◽  
Model Structures

Abstract. Vegetation fires affect human infrastructures, ecosystems, global vegetation distribution, and atmospheric composition. In particular, extreme fire conditions can cause devastating impacts on ecosystems and human society and dominate the year-to-year variability in global fire emissions. However, the climatic, environmental and socioeconomic factors that control fire activity in vegetation are only poorly understood and consequently it is unclear which components, structures, and complexities are required in global vegetation/fire models to accurately predict fire activity at a global scale. Here we introduce the SOFIA (Satellite Observations for FIre Activity) modelling approach, which integrates several satellite and climate datasets and different empirical model structures to systematically identify required structural components in global vegetation/fire models to predict burned area. Models result in the highest performance in predicting the spatial patterns and temporal variability of burned area if they account for a direct suppression of fire activity at wet conditions and if they include a land cover-dependent suppression or allowance of fire activity by vegetation density and biomass. The use of new vegetation optical depth data from microwave satellite observations, a proxy for vegetation biomass and water content, reaches higher model performance than commonly used vegetation variables from optical sensors. The SOFIA approach implements and confirms conceptual models where fire activity follows a biomass gradient and is modulated by moisture conditions. The use of datasets on population density or socioeconomic development do not improve model performances, which indicates that the complex interactions of human fire usage and management cannot be realistically represented by such datasets. However, the best SOFIA models outperform a highly flexible machine learning approach and the state-of-the art global process-oriented vegetation/fire model JSBACH-SPITFIRE. Our results suggest using multiple observational datasets on climate, hydrological, vegetation, and socioeconomic variables together with model-data integration approaches to guide the future development of global process-oriented vegetation/fire models and to better understand the interactions between fire and hydrological, ecological, and atmospheric Earth system components.

scholarly journals Fractal properties of forest fires in Amazonia as a basis for modelling pan-tropical burnt area

2014 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1449-1459 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. N. Fletcher ◽  
L. E. O. C. Aragão ◽  
A. Lima ◽  
Y. Shimabukuro ◽  
P. Friedlingstein
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Fire Spread ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Burnt Area ◽  
Active Fire ◽  
Fractal Properties ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation

Abstract. Current methods for modelling burnt area in dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) involve complex fire spread calculations, which rely on many inputs, including fuel characteristics, wind speed and countless parameters. They are therefore susceptible to large uncertainties through error propagation, but undeniably useful for modelling specific, small-scale burns. Using observed fractal distributions of fire scars in Brazilian Amazonia in 2005, we propose an alternative burnt area model for tropical forests, with fire counts as sole input and few parameters. This model is intended for predicting large-scale burnt area rather than looking at individual fire events. A simple parameterization of a tapered fractal distribution is calibrated at multiple spatial resolutions using a satellite-derived burnt area map. The model is capable of accurately reproducing the total area burnt (16 387 km2) and its spatial distribution. When tested pan-tropically using the MODIS MCD14ML active fire product, the model accurately predicts temporal and spatial fire trends, but the magnitude of the differences between these estimates and the GFED3.1 burnt area products varies per continent.

Where is the carbon going? - A multi-model comparison

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael O'Sullivan ◽  
Pierre Friedlingstein ◽  
Stephen Sitch
Keyword(s):  
Model Comparison ◽  
Net Primary Productivity ◽  
Relative Increase ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Residence Times ◽  
Vegetation Carbon ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation

<p>Net terrestrial carbon uptake is primarily driven by increases in net primary productivity (NPP) and/or the residence time of carbon in vegetation and soil. As such, it is of critical importance to accurately quantify spatio-temporal variation in both terms and determine their drivers. Both NPP and residence times are modulated by changing environmental conditions, including climate change and variability, atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub>, and Land Use and Land Cover Changes (LULCC). For the historical period, 1901-2019, outputs from a suite of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) from the TRENDY consortium, driven with observed changes in climate, CO<sub>2</sub>, and LULCC are analysed. Changes in global and regional carbon fluxes, stocks, and residence times are quantified, as well as an attribution to the underlying drivers. We find that over the historical period the majority of models simulate an increase in NPP, predominantly driven by enhanced atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations. This generally leads to increased carbon storage in both vegetation and soils, however there is no agreement across models on the partitioning between vegetation and soils. This increased storage also acts to reduce soil carbon residence times due to a relative increase in carbon allocated in the faster decomposing soil pools. LULCC over this period has acted to reduce carbon inputs to the system and reduce vegetation carbon residence times due to conversion of forests to shorter vegetation. We find there is a large variation in simulated global and regional fluxes, stocks, and residence times in resonse to changes in climate, implying there are considerable uncertainties in current DGVMs. We therefore use long-term global observations of productivity and biomass change to constrain model estimates and provide insight into a process attribution for biospheric change as well as highlighting areas for future model improvement.</p>

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models

Plant Ecology ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 843-863
Author(s):  
Ernst-Detlef Schulze ◽  
Erwin Beck ◽  
Nina Buchmann ◽  
Stephan Clemens ◽  
Klaus Müller-Hohenstein ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation

Using Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) for Projecting Ecosystem Services at Regional Scales

2019 ◽  
pp. 57-61
Author(s):  
Alice Boit ◽  
Boris Sakschewski ◽  
Lena Boysen ◽  
Ana Cano-Crespo ◽  
Jan Clement ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ecosystem Services ◽  
Dynamic Global Vegetation Models ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
Global Vegetation
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