scholarly journals Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiawei Liu ◽  
Haiming Xu ◽  
Jiechun Deng
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Epr Method ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Precipitation Changes

Abstract. Much research is needed regarding two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity and associated precipitation changes under both warming targets are explored in this study. Multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5° and 2 °C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR) method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective to tighten the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, suppressed precipitation would appear over 30°–40° N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of western North Pacific high (WNPSH) and a southward shift of East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low level and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5° and 2 °C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference between 1.5 °C and 2 °C, but a pronounced moisture increase during extra 0.5 °C leads to enhanced EASM precipitation over large areas in East Asia at 2 °C warming.

scholarly journals Projections of East Asian summer monsoon change at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 427-439 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiawei Liu ◽  
Haiming Xu ◽  
Jiechun Deng
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Precipitation Change ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Epr Method ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract. Much research is needed regarding the two long-term warming targets of the 2015 Paris Agreement, i.e., 1.5 and 2 ∘C above pre-industrial levels, especially from a regional perspective. The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensity change and associated precipitation change under both warming targets are explored in this study. The multimodel ensemble mean projections by 19 CMIP5 models show small increases in EASM intensity and general increases in summer precipitation at 1.5 and 2 ∘C warming, but with large multimodel standard deviations. Thus, a novel multimodel ensemble pattern regression (EPR) method is applied to give more reliable projections based on the concept of emergent constraints, which is effective at tightening the range of multimodel diversity and harmonize the changes of different variables over the EASM region. Future changes projected by using the EPR method suggest decreased precipitation over the Meiyu belt and increased precipitation over the high latitudes of East Asia and Central China, together with a considerable weakening of EASM intensity. Furthermore, reduced precipitation appears over 30–40∘ N of East Asia in June and over the Meiyu belt in July, with enhanced precipitation at their north and south sides. These changes in early summer are attributed to a southeastward retreat of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) and a southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), which weaken the moisture transport via southerly wind at low levels and alter vertical motions over the EASM region. In August, precipitation would increase over the high latitudes of East Asia with more moisture from the wetter area over the ocean in the east and decrease over Japan with westward extension of WNPSH. These monthly precipitation changes would finally contribute to a tripolar pattern of EASM precipitation change at 1.5 and 2 ∘C warming. Corrected EASM intensity exhibits a slight difference between 1.5 and 2 ∘C, but a pronounced moisture increase during extra 0.5 ∘C leads to enhanced EASM precipitation over large areas in East Asia at 2 ∘C warming.

scholarly journals Revisiting the Physical Mechanisms of East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Changes During the Mid-Holocene: A Data–model Comparison

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yong Sun ◽  
Haibin Wu ◽  
Gilles Ramstein ◽  
Bo Liu ◽  
Yan Zhao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Data Model ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Dynamic Components ◽  
Precipitation Changes

Abstract The mid-Holocene (MH; 6 ka) is one of the benchmark periods for the Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) and provides a unique opportunity to study monsoon dynamics and orbital forcing (i.e., mostly precession) that differ significantly from the present day. We conducted a data–model comparison along with a dynamic analysis to investigate monsoonal (i.e., East Asian summer monsoon; EASM) precipitation changes over East Asia during the MH. We used the three phases of the PMIP simulations for the MH, and quantitatively compared the model results with pollen-based climate records. The data–model comparison shows an overall increase in precipitation, except for a local decrease in EASM precipitation during the MH. Decomposition of the moisture budget into thermodynamic, dynamic components and co-variations in both allowed us to assess the relative role of thermodynamic and dynamic components in controlling EASM precipitation during the MH, and to investigate the precipitation changes obtained from pollen records in terms of physical processes. We show that the dynamic effect, rather than the thermodynamic effect, is the dominant control in increased EASM precipitation during the MH in both the proxy records and models. The dynamic increase in precipitation results mainly from the enhancement of horizontal monsoonal moisture transport that is caused by intensified stationary eddy horizontal circulation over East Asia. In addition, a cloud cooling effect reduced the thermodynamic contribution to the increase in EASM precipitation during the MH.

scholarly journals Improving the Prediction of the East Asian Summer Monsoon: New Approaches

2012 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 1017-1030 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ke Fan ◽  
Ying Liu ◽  
HuoPo Chen
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Statistical Prediction ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Prediction Ability ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Prediction Approach

Abstract East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) prediction is difficult because of the summer monsoon’s weak and unstable linkage with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) interdecadal variability and its complicated association with high-latitude processes. Two statistical prediction schemes were developed to include the interannual increment approach to improve the seasonal prediction of the EASM’s strength. The schemes were applied to three models [i.e., the Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM), the Met Office (UKMO), and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)] and the Multimodel Ensemble (MME) from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) results for 1961–2001. The inability of the three dynamical models to reproduce the weakened East Asian monsoon at the end of the 1970s leads to low prediction ability for the interannual variability of the EASM. Therefore, the interannual increment prediction approach was applied to overcome this issue. Scheme I contained the EASM in the form of year-to-year increments as a predictor that is derived from the direct outputs of the models. Scheme II contained two predictors: both the EASM and also the western North Pacific circulation in the form of year-to-year increments. Both the cross-validation test and the independent hindcast experiments showed that the two prediction schemes have a much better prediction ability for the EASM than does the original scheme. This study provides an efficient approach for predicting the EASM.

Improvement of Multimodel Ensemble Seasonal Prediction Skills over East Asian Summer Monsoon Region Using a Climate Filter Concept

2013 ◽  
Vol 52 (5) ◽  
pp. 1127-1138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Doo Young Lee ◽  
Joong-Bae Ahn ◽  
Karumuri Ashok
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Multimodel Ensemble ◽  
Suitable Climate ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Summer Monsoon Region

AbstractThe authors propose the use of a “climate filter” concept to enhance prediction skill of a multimodel ensemble (MME) suite for the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) precipitation and temperature at 850 hPa. The method envisages grading models on the basis of the degree of reproducibility of the association of EASM variability with a few relevant climate drivers with the respective model hindcasts for the period 1981–2003. The analysis identifies the previous winter Niño-3.4 and spring North Atlantic Oscillation indices as the most suitable climate drivers in designing a climate filter for evaluating models that replicate the observed teleconnections to EASM well. The results show that the hindcast skills of a new MME with the better-performing models are significantly higher than those from the nonperforming models or from an all-inclusive operational MME.

A New Upper-Level Circulation Index for the East Asian Summer Monsoon Variability

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (24) ◽  
pp. 9977-9996 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guijie Zhao ◽  
Gang Huang ◽  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Weichen Tao ◽  
Hainan Gong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Good Choice ◽  
Circulation Index ◽  
Asian Summer

Abstract The East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its variability involve circulation systems in both the tropics and midlatitudes as well as in both the lower and upper troposphere. Considering this fact, a new EASM index (NEWI) is proposed based on 200-hPa zonal wind, which takes into account wind anomalies in the southern (about 5°N), middle (about 20°N), and northern areas (about 35°N) of East Asia. The NEWI can capture the interannual EASM-related climate anomalies and the interdecadal variability well. Compared to previous indices, the NEWI shows a better performance in describing precipitation and air temperature variations over East Asia. It can also show distinct climate anomalous features in early and late summer. The NEWI is tightly associated with the East Asian–Pacific or the Pacific–Japan teleconnection, suggesting a possible role of internal dynamics in the EASM variability. Meanwhile, the NEWI is significantly linked to El Niño–Southern Oscillation and tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies. Furthermore, the NEWI is highly predictable in the ENSEMBLES models, indicating its advantage for operational prediction of the EASM. The physical mechanism of the EASM variability as represented by the NEWI is also explicit. Both warm advection anomalies of temperature by anomalous westerly winds and the advection of anomalous positive relative vorticity by northerly basic winds cause anomalous ascending motion over the mei-yu–changma–baiu rainfall area, and vice versa over the South China Sea area. Hence, this NEWI would be a good choice to study, monitor, and predict the EASM.

Effects of the Tibetan Plateau on East Asian Summer Monsoon via Weakened Transient Eddies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiaoling Ren ◽  
Song Yang ◽  
Xinwen Jiang ◽  
Yang Zhang ◽  
Zhenning Li
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Early Summer ◽  
The Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Rain Belt ◽  
Westerly Jet ◽  
Asian Summer

<p>Previous studies have revealed that the Tibetan Plateau (TP) can weaken the high-frequency and low-frequency transient eddies (TE) transported along the westerly jet. Here the effects of TP on East Asian summer monsoon via weakened TE are investigated based on the simulations by the NCAR Community Earth System Model, in which a nudging method is used to amplify the TP’s inhibition of TE without changing the steady dynamic and thermodynamic effects of TP. Results reveal that the weakened TE by TP weaken the East Asian westerly jet (EAWJ) and shift the jet southward via transient vorticity flux. The southward EAWJ accompanied with reduced poleward transport of moisture by TE results in less rainfall in northern East Asia but more rainfall in southern East Asia, particularly in early summer when the EAWJ is stably located over the TP and the meridional gradient of water vapor is large. Furthermore, the anomalous precipitation can move the EAWJ further southward through the anomalous diabatic heating in early summer, forming a positive feedback. Therefore, the TP’s inhibition of TE can shift the East Asian rain belt southward, different from the TP’s steady forcing which favors a poleward shift of the rain belt. It is also demonstrated that the atmospheric internal variability can lead to the south-flood-north-drought pattern of summer rainfall change over East Asia, indicating the important role of TE in East Asian summer monsoon.</p>

scholarly journals Numerical Modeling of Topography-Modulated Dust Aerosol Distribution and Its Influence on the Onset of East Asian Summer Monsoon

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Sun ◽  
Xiaodong Liu
Keyword(s):  
Heat Source ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Dust Aerosol ◽  
Summer Monsoon Onset ◽  
Aerosol Distribution ◽  
Asian Summer

A regional climate model coupled with a dust module was used to simulate dust aerosol distribution and its effects on the atmospheric heat source over the TP, East Asian summer monsoon onset, and precipitation in East Asia modulated by the uplift of the northern TP. We carried out four experiments, including a modern (i.e., high-mountain) experiment with (HMD) and without (HM) the major deserts in Northwest China and a low-mountain experiment with (LMD) and without (LM) the deserts. The results show that dust greatly increases in the Taklamakan Desert accompanied with the uplift of the northern TP, and the increase exceeds 150 µg kg−1in spring. A strong cyclone in the Tarim Basin produced by the uplifted northern TP enhances dust emissions in the Taklamakan Desert in summer. Meanwhile, the dust loading over the TP also increases induced by the uplift of the northern TP, causing the heat source over the TP decreased. Under the condition of the northern TP uplift to present altitude, dust delays the East Asia summer monsoon onset by two pentads and one pentad, respectively, in the southern and northern monsoon regions and greatly suppresses precipitation in East Asia compared with results in the low terrain experiments.

scholarly journals Mechanisms for Spatially Inhomogeneous Changes in East Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation during the Mid-Holocene

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (8) ◽  
pp. 2945-2965 ◽  
Author(s):  
Na Wang ◽  
Dabang Jiang ◽  
Xianmei Lang
Keyword(s):  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
East Asian ◽  
Central China ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
West Central ◽  
Monsoonal Precipitation ◽  
Asian Summer ◽  
Precipitation Changes

AbstractThe East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) intensified during the early to mid-Holocene relative to the present primarily due to orbital forcing. However, on the regional scale, changes in the monsoonal precipitation exhibit considerable spatial disparity, and the underlying mechanisms remain unresolved. In this study, the dynamic processes responsible for the difference of the EASM precipitation between the mid-Holocene and preindustrial period are systematically examined using the CMIP5 multimodel simulations. The moisture budget diagnostic identifies vertical motion as the key factor determining the cross-like precipitation pattern in East Asia. Relative to the preindustrial period, the mid-Holocene anomalous ascending motion corresponds well with the excessive precipitation over northern and southern China, and vice versa for west-central China, the Korean peninsula, Japan, and its marginal seas. In the framework of the moist static energy budget, the increased insolation and the attendant intensification of land–sea thermal contrast give rise to anomalous ascending motions, while descending motions are fundamentally forced by the decreased latitudinal insolation gradient. In particular, thermodynamic changes, namely, the reduced pole–equator temperature and humidity gradients, account for the downward motions over the northwestern Pacific. Dynamic changes, namely, the weakened westerlies, play a leading role in suppressing updrafts in west-central China. This study highlights that the orbital-scale monsoonal precipitation changes are not solely determined by local radiative forcing as repeatedly emphasized before. The latitudinal uneven distribution of insolation is crucial to explain the spatial inhomogeneity in the EASM precipitation changes during the Holocene.

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