scholarly journals Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Parkes ◽  
Dimitri Defrance ◽  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Xuhui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
High Temperature Stress ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Maize Crop ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Time Frequency ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Near Term

Abstract. The ability of a country or region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is a question of importance. The population in West Africa is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of food crops to short term climate change is therefore critical to the population at large and the decision makers tasked with providing food for their people. An ensemble of near term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic and near term future. The mean yields are not expected to alter significantly, while there is an increase in inter annual variability. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond one standard deviation during a period of 20 years. The increasing variability increases the frequency and intensity of crop failures across West Africa. The mean return frequency between mild maize crop failures from process based crop models increases from once every 6.8 years to once every 4.5 years. The mean return time frequency for severe crop failures (beyond 1.5 standard deviations) also almost doubles from once every 16.5 years to once every 8.5 years. Two adaptation responses to climate change, the adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model in an idealised sensitivity test. The generalised adoption of a cultivar resistant to high temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting by both increasing yields and the return frequency of crop failures.

scholarly journals Projected changes in crop yield mean and variability over West Africa in a world 1.5 K warmer than the pre-industrial era

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Parkes ◽  
Dimitri Defrance ◽  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
Philippe Ciais ◽  
Xuhui Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
High Temperature Stress ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Crop Failure ◽  
Historic Period ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Near Term

Abstract. The ability of a region to feed itself in the upcoming decades is an important issue. The West African population is expected to increase significantly in the next 30 years. The responses of crops to short-term climate change is critical to the population and the decision makers tasked with food security. This leads to three questions: how will crop yields change in the near future? What influence will climate change have on crop failures? Which adaptation methods should be employed to ameliorate undesirable changes? An ensemble of near-term climate projections are used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the recent historic period (1986–2005) and a near-term future when global temperatures are 1.5 K above pre-industrial levels to assess the change in yield, yield variability and crop failure rate. Four crop models were used to simulate maize, millet and sorghum in West Africa in the historic and future climates. Across the majority of West Africa the maize, millet and sorghum yields are shown to fall. In the regions where yields increase, the variability also increases. This increase in variability increases the likelihood of crop failures, which are defined as yield negative anomalies beyond 1 standard deviation during the historic period. The increasing variability increases the frequency of crop failures across West Africa. The return time of crop failures falls from 8.8, 9.7 and 10.1 years to 5.2, 6.3 and 5.8 years for maize, millet and sorghum respectively. The adoption of heat-resistant cultivars and the use of captured rainwater have been investigated using one crop model as an idealized sensitivity test. The generalized doption of a cultivar resistant to high-temperature stress during flowering is shown to be more beneficial than using rainwater harvesting.

Future change in renewable energy availability in West Africa: a time of emergence approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marco Gaetani ◽  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
Serge Janicot Serge Janicot ◽  
Mathieu Vrac ◽  
Robert Vautard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Wind Potential

<p>Independence in energy production is a key aspect of development in West African countries, which are facing fast population growth and climate change. Sustainable development is based on the availability of renewable energy sources, which are tightly tied to climate variability and change. In the context of current and projected climate change, development plans need reliable assessment of future availability of renewable resources.</p><p>In this study, the change in the availability of photovoltaic (PV) and wind energy in West Africa in the next decades is assessed. Specifically, the time of emergence (TOE) of climate change in PV and wind potential is estimated in 29 CMIP5 climate projections.</p><p>The ensemble robustly simulates a shift into a warmer climate in West Africa, which already occurred, and projects a decrease in solar radiation at the surface to occur by the 70s. The reduction in solar radiation is associated with a projected increase in the monsoonal precipitation in the 21st century. It results a likely change into climate conditions less favourable for PV energy production by the 40s. On the other hand, the projected change in the monsoonal dynamics will drive the increase in low level winds over the coast, which in turn will result in a robustly simulated shift into climate conditions favourable to wind power production by mid-century. Results show that climate model projections are skilful at providing usable information for adaptation measures to be taken in the energy sector.</p>

scholarly journals Prediction of Maize Yield Response to Climate Change with Climate and Crop Model Uncertainties

2015 ◽  
Vol 54 (4) ◽  
pp. 785-794 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Zhang ◽  
Yanxia Zhao ◽  
Sining Chen ◽  
Jianping Guo ◽  
Enli Wang
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Maize Yield ◽  
Crop Model ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Yield Response ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Crop Models ◽  
Climate Change Uncertainty

AbstractProjections of climate change impacts on crop yields are subject to uncertainties, and quantification of such uncertainty is essential for the effective use of the projection results for adaptation and mitigation purposes. This work analyzes the uncertainties in maize yield predictions using two crop models together with three climate projections downscaled with one regional climate model nested with three global climate models under the A1B emission scenario in northeast China (NEC). Projections were evaluated for the Zhuanghe agrometeorological station in NEC for the 2021–50 period, taking 1971–2000 as the baseline period. The results indicated a yield reduction of 13% during 2021–50, with 95% probability intervals of (−41%, +12%) relative to 1971–2000. Variance decomposition of the yield projections showed that uncertainty in the projections caused by climate and crop models is likely to change with prediction period, and climate change uncertainty generally had a larger impact on projections than did crop model uncertainty during the 2021–50 period. In addition, downscaled climate projections had significant bias that can introduce significant uncertainties in yield projections. Therefore, they have to be bias corrected before use.

Livestock's Near-Term Climate Impact and Mitigation Policy Implications

2018 ◽  
pp. 37-57
Author(s):  
Gerard Wedderburn-Bisshop ◽  
Lauren Rickards
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Science ◽  
Climate Impact ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Human Consumption ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Responses ◽  
Methane Source ◽  
Near Term

Human consumption of livestock remains a marginal issue in climate change debates, partly due to the IPCC's arbitrary adoption of 100-year global warming potential framework to compare different emissions, blinding us to the significance of shorter-term emissions, namely methane. Together with the gas it reacts to form - tropospheric ozone - methane has been responsible for 37% of global warming since 1750, yet its atmospheric life is just 10 years. Neglecting its role means overlooking powerful mitigation opportunities. The chapter discusses the role of livestock, the largest anthropogenic methane source, and the need to include reduced meat consumption in climate change responses. Looking beyond the conventional focus on the consumer, we point to some underlying challenges in addressing the meat-climate relationship, including the climate science community's reluctance to adopt a short-term focus in its climate projections. Policy options are presented.

TOWARD IMPACT FUNCTIONS FOR STOCHASTIC CLIMATE CHANGE

2015 ◽  
Vol 06 (04) ◽  
pp. 1550015 ◽  
Author(s):  
FRANCISCO ESTRADA ◽  
RICHARD S. J. TOL
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Welfare Effects ◽  
Natural Variability ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
The Mean

Most functions of economic impact assume that climate change is smooth. We here propose impact functions that have stochastic climate change as an input. These functions are identical in shape and have similar parameters as do deterministic impact functions. The mean stochastic impacts are thus similar to deterministic impacts. Welfare effects are larger, and the stochasticity premium is larger than the risk premium. Results suggest that stochasticity is more important for past impacts than for future impacts. This outcome is partly caused by an underestimation of natural variability in the 21st century climate projections.

scholarly journals The impact of future climate change on West African crop yields: What does the recent literature say?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Philippe Roudier ◽  
Benjamin Sultan ◽  
Philippe Quirion ◽  
Alexis Berg
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
West Africa ◽  
Yield Loss ◽  
Crop Yields ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Median Response ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Symposium on Social Theory and the Environment in the New World (dis)Order ; International audience ; In West Africa, agriculture, mainly rainfed, is a major economic sector and the one most vulnerable to climate change. A meta-database of future crop yields, built up from 16 recent studies, is used to provide an overall assessment of the potential impact of climate change on yields, and to analyze sources of uncertainty. Despite a large dispersion of yield changes ranging from -50% to +90%, the median is a yield loss near -11%. This negative impact is assessed by both empirical and process-based crop models whereas the Ricardian approach gives very contrasted results, even within a single study. The predicted impact is larger in northern West Africa (Sudano-Sahelian countries, -18% median response) than in southern West Africa (Guinean countries, -13%) which is likely due to drier and warmer projections in the northern part of West Africa. Moreover, negative impacts on crop productivity increase in severity as warming intensifies, with a median yield loss near -15% with most intense warming, highlighting the importance of global warming mitigation. The consistently negative impact of climate change results mainly from the temperature whose increase projected by climate models is much larger relative to precipitation change. However, rainfall changes, still uncertain in climate projections, have the potential to exacerbate or mitigate this impact depending on whether rainfall decreases or increases. Finally, results highlight the pivotal role that the carbon fertilization effect may have on the sign and amplitude of change in crop yields. This effect is particularly strong for a high carbon dioxide concentration scenario and for C3 crops (e.g. soybean, cassava). As staple crops are mainly C4 (e.g. maize, millet, sorghum) in WA, this positive effect is less significant for the region. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Risk-Based Performance of Bioinfiltration Facilities under Climate Change Scenarios

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 1765 ◽  
Author(s):  
Conor Lewellyn ◽  
Bridget Wadzuk
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Green Infrastructure ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Couple Model Intercomparison Project ◽  
The World ◽  
Near Term

Many communities throughout the world are utilizing green infrastructure practices to mitigate the projected impacts of climate change. While some areas of the world are anticipating droughts, other areas are preparing for an increased flood risk, due to changes in precipitation volume and intensity. Cities rely on practices such as bioinfiltration to sustainably capture stormwater runoff and provide resilience against climate change. As cities aim to increase resilience and decrease climate-change-associated risks, a greater understanding of these risks is needed. A risk-based approach was used to evaluate bioinfiltration design and performance. Climate projections from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 were used to create near-term (2020–2049) and long-term (2050–2079) climate datasets for Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, using two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5). Both near-term and long-term climate models demonstrated increased precipitation and daily temperatures, similar to other areas in the U.S. Northeast, Midwest, Great Plains, and Alaska. Climate data were used to model bioinfiltration practices using continuous simulation hydrologic models. Overflow events and cumulative risk increased from bioinfiltration sites when compared to the baseline scenario (1970–1999). This study demonstrates how to apply a risk-based approach to bioinfiltration design using climate projections and provides recommendations to increase resilience in bioinfiltration design.

scholarly journals Robust rainwater harvesting: probabilistic tank sizing for climate change adaptation

2014 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 526-539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Lash ◽  
Sarah Ward ◽  
Tristan Kershaw ◽  
David Butler ◽  
Matthew Eames
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainwater Harvesting ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rainfall Characteristics ◽  
New Approach ◽  
British Standard ◽  
Time Period ◽  
Simplified Method ◽  
The Uk

Rainwater harvesting (RWH) systems are increasingly being implemented in buildings. It is common in the UK for simple RWH tank sizing methods to be utilised, and these do not consider future climate change. This paper describes the development of a tool, which integrates elements of basic and detailed sizing approaches from the British Standard for RWH, with the latest probabilistic UK Climate Projections data. The method was initially applied to the design of a university building in Cornwall, UK. The methodology utilises 3,000 equi-probable rainfall patterns for tank sizing for each time period. Results indicate that, to ensure that it is ‘likely’ that the same non-potable demand could be met in 2080 as in the present, a tank 112% larger would be required. This increases to a 225% over-sizing for a ‘very likely’ probability of meeting the same level of non-potable demand. The same RWH system design was then assessed for three further UK locations with different rainfall characteristics. From these assessments, a simplified method was developed to enable practitioners to size RWH system tanks for current and future climates. The method provides a new approach to meet present and future non-potable demands, while preventing excessive over-sizing of tanks.

scholarly journals Near-term regional climate change over Bangladesh

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeon-Woo Choi ◽  
Deborah J. Campbell ◽  
John C. Aldridge ◽  
Elfatih A. B. Eltahir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Adaptation Capacity ◽  
Near Term

AbstractBangladesh stands out as a climate change hot spot due to its unique geography, climate, high population density, and limited adaptation capacity. Mounting evidence suggests that the country is already suffering from the effects of climate change which may get worse without aggressive action. Here, we use an ensemble of high-resolution (10 km) regional climate model simulations to project near-term change in climate extremes, mainly heat waves and intense rainfall, for the period (2021–2050). Near-term climate projections represent a valuable input for designing sound adaptation policies. Our climate projections suggest that heatwaves will become more frequent and severe in Bangladesh under the business-as-usual scenario (RCP8.5). In particular, extremes of wet-bulb temperature (a temperature and humidity metric important in evaluating humid heat stress) in the western part of Bangladesh including Bogra, Ishurdi, and Jessore are likely to exceed the extreme danger threshold (according to U.S. National Weather Service criterion), which has rarely been observed in the current climate. The return periods of extreme heat waves are also significantly shortened across the country. In addition, country-averaged rainfall is projected to increase by about 6% during the summer months, with the largest increases (above 10%) in the eastern mountainous areas, such as Sylhet and Chittagong. Meanwhile, insignificant changes in extreme rainfall are simulated. Our results suggest that Bangladesh is particularly susceptible to climate extremes in the near future, in the form of extreme heat waves over the western part of the country.

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