scholarly journals Identifying global patterns of stochasticity and nonlinearity in the Earth System

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Arizmendi ◽  
Marcelo Barreiro ◽  
Cristina Masoller
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Distance Measure ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Entropy Measure ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Atmospheric Phenomena ◽  
Low Entropy

Abstract. We demonstrate that two simple measures of time series analysis are able to capture different dynamical and statistical properties of large-scale atmospheric phenomena. We consider two surface air temperature (SAT) datasets, covering a spatial grid of points over the Earth surface (NCEP CDAS1 and ERA Interim reanalysis). In each location we analyze i) the distance between the lagged SAT time series and the insolation (i.e., the local top-of-atmosphere incoming solar radiation), and ii) the Shannon entropy computed from the probability distribution function (pdf) of SAT values. The distance quantifies the similarity between the lagged SAT waveform and the isolation waveform, while the entropy, as defined in information theory, measures the degree of disorder or uncertainty of each time series, which we refer to as stochasticity: the entropy captures the shape of the SAT pdf and is maximum when the pdf is uniform. With the distance measure we uncover well-defined spatial patterns formed by regions with similar SAT response to solar forcing, while with the entropy measure, we uncover regions that have SAT pdf of similar shape. The entropy analysis also allows identifying the geographical regions in which SAT time series has extreme values (i.e., values which are extreme in the local statistics), because the long-tail shape of the pdf is captured as low entropy values. We uncover significant differences between the NCEP CDAS1 and ERA Interim datasets in specific geographical regions, which are due to the presence of extreme values in one dataset but not in the other. In this way, the entropy maps are a valuable tool for anomaly detection and model inter-comparisons.

scholarly journals Identifying global patterns of stochasticity and nonlinearity in the Earth System

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Arizmendi ◽  
Marcelo Barreiro ◽  
Cristina Masoller
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Entropy Analysis ◽  
Solar Forcing ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Geographical Regions ◽  
Global Patterns

Abstract. By comparing time-series of surface air temperature (SAT, monthly reanalysis data from NCEP CDAS1 and ERA Interim) with respect to the top-of-atmosphere incoming solar radiation (the insolation), we perform a detailed analysis of the SAT response to solar forcing. By computing the entropy of SAT time-series, we also quantify the degree of stochasticity. We find spatial coherent structures which are characterized by high stochasticity and nearly linear response to solar forcing (the shape of SAT time-series closely follows that of the isolation), or vice versa. The entropy analysis also allows to identify geographical regions in which there are significant differences between the NCEP CDAS1 and ERA Interim datasets, which are due to the presence of extreme values in one dataset but not in the other. Therefore, entropy maps are a valuable tool for anomaly detection and model inter-comparisons.

scholarly journals Transport Catastrophe Analysis as an Alternative to a Monofractal Description: Theory and Application to Financial Crisis Time Series

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey A. Kamenshchikov
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Phase Diffusion ◽  
Description Theory ◽  
Mortgage Crisis ◽  
Memory Measure ◽  
Short Memory ◽  
Scale Failure

The goal of this investigation was to overcome limitations of a persistency analysis, introduced by Benoit Mandelbrot for monofractal Brownian processes: nondifferentiability, Brownian nature of process, and a linear memory measure. We have extended a sense of a Hurst factor by consideration of a phase diffusion power law. It was shown that precatastrophic stabilization as an indicator of bifurcation leads to a new minimum of momentary phase diffusion, while bifurcation causes an increase of the momentary transport. An efficiency of a diffusive analysis has been experimentally compared to the Reynolds stability model application. An extended Reynolds parameter has been introduced as an indicator of phase transition. A combination of diffusive and Reynolds analyses has been applied for a description of a time series of Dow Jones Industrial weekly prices for the world financial crisis of 2007–2009. Diffusive and Reynolds parameters showed extreme values in October 2008 when a mortgage crisis was fixed. A combined R/D description allowed distinguishing of market evolution short-memory and long-memory shifts. It was stated that a systematic large scale failure of a financial system has begun in October 2008 and started fading in February 2009.

scholarly journals Copula-based statistical refinement of precipitation in RCM simulations over complex terrain

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (7) ◽  
pp. 2401-2419 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Laux ◽  
S. Vogl ◽  
W. Qiu ◽  
H. R. Knoche ◽  
H. Kunstmann
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Copula Models ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Weather Situation ◽  
The Common

Abstract. This paper presents a new Copula-based method for further downscaling regional climate simulations. It is developed, applied and evaluated for selected stations in the alpine region of Germany. Apart from the common way to use Copulas to model the extreme values, a strategy is proposed which allows to model continuous time series. As the concept of Copulas requires independent and identically distributed (iid) random variables, meteorological fields are transformed using an ARMA-GARCH time series model. In this paper, we focus on the positive pairs of observed and modelled (RCM) precipitation. According to the empirical copulas, significant upper and lower tail dependence between observed and modelled precipitation can be observed. These dependence structures are further conditioned on the prevailing large-scale weather situation. Based on the derived theoretical Copula models, stochastic rainfall simulations are performed, finally allowing for bias corrected and locally refined RCM simulations.

scholarly journals Copula-based statistical refinement of precipitation in RCM simulations over complex terrain

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 3001-3045 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Laux ◽  
S. Vogl ◽  
W. Qiu ◽  
H. R. Knoche ◽  
H. Kunstmann
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Copula Models ◽  
Climate Simulations ◽  
Weather Situation ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper presents a new Copula-based method for further downscaling regional climate simulations. It is developed, applied and evaluated for selected stations in the alpine region of Germany. Apart from the common way to use Copulas to model the extreme values, a strategy is proposed which allows to model continous time series. In this paper, we focus on the positive pairs of observed and modelled (RCM) precipitation. As the concept of Copulas requires independent and identically distributed (iid) random variables, meteorological fields are transformed using an ARMA-GARCH time series model. The dependence structures between modelled and observed precipitation are conditioned on the prevailing large-scale weather situation. The impact of the altitude of the stations and their distance to the surrounding modelled grid cells is analyzed. Based on the derived theoretical Copula models, stochastic rainfall simulations are performed, finally allowing for bias corrected and locally refined RCM simulations.

Weather Generators

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shuiqing Yin ◽  
Deliang Chen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Continuous Simulation ◽  
Weather Generators ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Multiple Variables ◽  
Climate Time Series

Weather generators (WGs) are stochastic models that can generate synthetic climate time series of unlimited length and having statistical properties similar to those of observed time series for a location or an area. WGs can infill missing data, extend the length of climate time series, and generate meteorological conditions for unobserved locations. Since the 1990s WGs have become an important spatial-temporal statistical downscaling methodology and have been playing an increasingly important role in climate-change impact assessment. Although the majority of the existing WGs have focused on simulation of precipitation for a single site, more and more WGs considering correlations among multiple sites, and multiple variables, including precipitation and nonprecipitation variables such as temperature, solar radiation, wind, humidity, and cloud cover have been developed for daily and sub-daily scales. Various parametric, semi-parametric and nonparametric WGs have shown the ability to represent the mean, variance, and autocorrelation characteristics of climate variables at different scales. Two main methodologies including change factor and conditional WGs on large-scale dynamical and thermal dynamical weather states have been developed for applications under a changing climate. However, rationality and validity of assumptions underlining both methodologies need to be carefully checked before they can be used to project future climate change at local scale. Further, simulation of extreme values by the existing WGs needs to be further improved. WGs assimilating multisource observations from ground observations, reanalysis, satellite remote sensing, and weather radar for the continuous simulation of two-dimensional climate fields based on the mixed physics-based and stochastic approaches deserve further efforts. An inter-comparison project on a large ensemble of WG methods may be helpful for the improvement of WGs. Due to the applied nature of WGs, their future development also requires inputs from decision-makers and other relevant stakeholders.

STUDY OF ENVIRONMENTAL AWARENESS AMONG SENIOR SECONDARY SCHOOL STUDENTS IN RELATION TO THEIR GENDER AND ACADEMIC STREAM

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 262-265
Author(s):  
Dr.Navdeep Kaur
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Education ◽  
Natural Resources ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Environmental Awareness ◽  
Human Beings ◽  
School Students ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Stages Of Learning ◽  
The Masses

Since its evolution environment has remained both a matter of awe and concern to man. The frontier attitude of the industrialized society towards nature has not only endangered the survival of all other life forms but also threatened the very existence of human life. The realization of such potential danger has necessitated the dissemination of knowledge and skill vis-a-vis environment protection at all stages of learning. Therefore, learners of all stages of learning need to be sensitized with a missionary zeal. This may ensure transformation of students into committed citizens for averting global environment crisis. The advancement of science and technology made the life more and more relaxed and man also became more and more ambitious. With such development, human dependence on environment increased. He consumed more resources and the effect of his activities on the environment became more and more detectable. Environment covers all the things present around the living beings and above the land, on the surface of the earth and under the earth. Environment indicates, in total, all of peripheral forces, pressures and circumstances, which affect the life, nature, behaviour, growth, development and maturation of living beings. Irrational exploitation (not utilization) of natural resources for our greed (not need) has endangered our survival, and incurred incalculable harm. Environmental Education is a science, a well-thought, permanent, lasting and integrated process of equipping learning experiences for getting awareness, knowledge, understanding, skills, values, technical expertise and involvement of learners with desirable attitudinal changes about their relationship with their natural and biophysical environment. Environmental Education is an organized effort to educate the masses about environment, its functions, need, importance, and especially how human beings can manage their behaviour in order to live in a sustainable manner.  The term 'environmental awareness' refers to creating general awareness of environmental issues, their causes by bringing about changes in perception, attitude, values and necessary skills to solve environment related problems. Moreover, it is the first step leading to the formation of responsible environmental behaviour (Stern, 2000). With the ever increasing development by modern man, large scale degradation of natural resources have been occurred, the public has to be educated about the fact that if we are degrading our environment we are actually harming ourselves. To encourage meaningful public participation and environment, it is necessary to create awareness about environment pollution and related adverse effects. This is the crucial time that environmental awareness and environmental sensitivity should be cultivated among the masses particularly among youths. For the awareness of society it is essential to work at a gross root level. So the whole society can work to save the environment.

EXTREME VALUES OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-PERIOD PHENOMENA OCCURRED DURING 1960-2015 IN THE COLOMBIAN PACIFIC OCEAN

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diaz Juan Navia ◽  
Diaz Juan Navia ◽  
Bolaños Nancy Villegas ◽  
Bolaños Nancy Villegas ◽  
Igor Malikov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Pacific Ocean ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Sea Surface Temperature ◽  
Extreme Values ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Absolute Maximum ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Arctic Oscillation Index ◽  
Colombian Pacific

Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA), in four coastal hydrographic stations of Colombian Pacific Ocean, were analyzed. The selected hydrographic stations were: Tumaco (1°48'N-78°45'W), Gorgona island (2°58'N-78°11'W), Solano Bay (6°13'N-77°24'W) and Malpelo island (4°0'N-81°36'W). SSTA time series for 1960-2015 were calculated from monthly Sea Surface Temperature obtained from International Comprehensive Ocean Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS). SSTA time series, Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO), Arctic Oscillation index (AO) and sunspots number (associated to solar activity), were compared. It was found that the SSTA absolute minimum has occurred in Tumaco (-3.93°C) in March 2009, in Gorgona (-3.71°C) in October 2007, in Solano Bay (-4.23°C) in April 2014 and Malpelo (-4.21°C) in December 2005. The SSTA absolute maximum was observed in Tumaco (3.45°C) in January 2002, in Gorgona (5.01°C) in July 1978, in Solano Bay (5.27°C) in March 1998 and Malpelo (3.64°C) in July 2015. A high correlation between SST and ONI in large part of study period, followed by a good correlation with PDO, was identified. The AO and SSTA have showed an inverse relationship in some periods. Solar Cycle has showed to be a modulator of behavior of SSTA in the selected stations. It was determined that extreme values of SST are related to the analyzed large scale oscillations.

Pèlerinages barrésiens

2013 ◽  
pp. 116-123
Author(s):  
Claire Bompaire-Evesque
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
The Self ◽  
Joan Of Arc ◽  
The Third ◽  
National Importance ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Third Stage ◽  
The Dead

This article is a inquiry about how Barrès (1862-1923) handles the religious rite of pilgrimage. Barrès stages in his writings three successive forms of pilgrimage, revealing what is sacred to him at different times. The pilgrimage to a museum or to the birthplace of an artist is typical for the egotism and the humanism of the young Barrès, expressed in the Cult of the Self (1888-1891). After his conversion to nationalism, Barrès tries to unite the sons of France and to instill in them a solemn reverence for “the earth and the dead” ; for that purpose he encourages in French Amities (1903) pilgrimages to historical places of national importance (battlefields; birthplace of Joan of Arc), building what Nora later called the Realms of Memory. The third stage of Barrès’ intellectual evolution is exemplified by The Sacred Hill (1913). In this book the writer celebrates the places where “the Spirit blows”, and proves open to a large scale of spiritual forces, reaching back to paganism and forward to integrative syncretism, which aims at unifying “the entire realm of the sacred”.

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