scholarly journals The Earth’s climate system recurrent & multi-scale lagged responses: empirical law, evidence, consequent solar explanation of recent CO<sub>2</sub> increases & preliminary analysis

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Sánchez-Sesma
Keyword(s):  
Solar Activity ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Volcanic Activity ◽  
Tropical Climate ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Climate Signal ◽  
Earth’S Climate

Abstract. This paper analyzes the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, as part of cosmic-solar-terrestrial processes. Firstly, we analyze and model the lagged responses of the Earth’s climate system, previously detected for geological and orbital scale processes, with simple non-linear functions, and we estimate a correspondent lag of ~1600-yr for the recently detected ~9500-yr scale solar recurrent patterns. Secondly, a recurrent and lagged linear influence of solar variation on volcanic activity and carbon dioxide (CO2) has been assessed for the last millennia, and extrapolated for future centuries and millennia. As a consequence we found that, on one side, the recent CO2 increase can be considered as a lagged response to solar activity, and, on the other side, the continental tropical climate signal during late Holocene can be considered as a sum of three lagged responses to solar activity, through direct, and indirect (volcanic and CO2), influences with different lags of around 40, 800 and 1600 years. Thirdly, we find more examples of this ~1600-yr lag, associated with oceanic processes throughout the Holocene, manifested in the mineral content of SE Pacific waters, and in a carbon cycle index, CO3, in the Southern Atlantic. Fourthly, we propose the global ocean circulation processes, that include the well known meridional overturning circulation, and the thermohaline circulation, as a global mechanism capable of explaining the lagged forcing (volcanic activity &amp; CO2) and continental tropical climate responses to solar activity variations. Finally, some conclusions are provided for the lagged responses of the Earth's climate system with their influences and consequences on present and future climate, and implications for climate modelling are preliminarily analyzed.

scholarly journals Glacial Indonesian Throughflow weakening across the Mid-Pleistocene Climatic Transition

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Petrick ◽  
Alfredo Martínez-García ◽  
Gerald Auer ◽  
Lars Reuning ◽  
Alexandra Auderset ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Isotope Composition ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Indonesian Throughflow ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Global Ocean Circulation ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Global Sea Level

AbstractThe Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) controls the oceanic flux of heat and salt between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and therewith plays an important role in modulating the meridional overturning circulation and low latitude hydrological cycle. Here, we report new sea surface temperature and aridity records from the west coast of Australia (IODP Site U1460), which allow us to assess the sensitivity of the eastern Indian Ocean to the major reorganization of Earth’s climate that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. Our records indicate glacial coolings at 1.55 and 0.65 million years ago that are best explained by a weakening of the ITF as a consequence of global sea level and tectonic changes. These coincide with the development of pronounced gradients in the carbon isotope composition of the different ocean basins and with substantial changes in regional aridity, suggesting that the restrictions of the ITF influenced both the evolution of global ocean circulation and the development of the modern hydrological cycle in Western Australia.

Evaluating Met Office uncoupled and coupled forecasts during the Iceland Greenland Seas Project field campaign in 2018

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris Barrell ◽  
Ian Renfrew ◽  
Steven Abel ◽  
Andrew Elvidge ◽  
John King
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Rapid Change ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Field Campaign ◽  
Important Region

&lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;During a cold-air outbreak (CAO) a cold polar airmass flows from the frozen land or ice surface, over the marginal ice zone (MIZ), then out over the comparatively warm open ocean. This constitutes a dramatic change in surface temperature, roughness and moisture availability, typically causing rapid change in the atmospheric boundary layer.&amp;#160;Consequently, CAOs are associated with a range of severe mesoscale weather phenomena and accurate forecasting is crucial.&amp;#160;Over the Nordic Seas CAOs also play a vital role in global ocean circulation, causing densification and sinking of ocean waters that form the headwaters of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;To tackle the lack of observations during wintertime CAOs and improve scientific understanding in this important region, the Iceland Greenland Seas Project (IGP) undertook an extensive field campaign during February and March 2018. Aiming to&amp;#160;characterise&amp;#160;the atmospheric forcing and the ocean response, particularly in and around the MIZ, the IGP made coordinated ocean-atmosphere measurements, involving a research vessel, a research aircraft, a meteorological buoy, moorings, sea gliders and floats.&amp;#160;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/div&gt;&lt;div&gt; &lt;p&gt;The work presented here employs these novel observational data to evaluate&amp;#160;output&amp;#160;from&amp;#160;the&amp;#160;UK&amp;#160;Met Office global operational&amp;#160;forecasting&amp;#160;system&amp;#160;and&amp;#160;from a pre-operational&amp;#160;coupled&amp;#160;ocean-ice-atmosphere&amp;#160;system.&amp;#160;The Met Office aim to transition to a coupled operational forecast in the coming years,&amp;#160;thus&amp;#160;verification of model versions in development is&amp;#160;essential. Results show&amp;#160;that&amp;#160;this&amp;#160;coupled model&amp;#8217;s&amp;#160;sea ice is&amp;#160;generally&amp;#160;more accurate&amp;#160;than&amp;#160;a persistent field.&amp;#160;However,&amp;#160;it&amp;#160;can also suffer from cold-biased sea surface temperatures around the MIZ,&amp;#160;which influences&amp;#160;the modelled near-surface meteorology.&amp;#160;Both these effects demonstrate the crucial importance of accurate sea ice simulation in coupled&amp;#160;model forecasting&amp;#160;in the&amp;#160;high latitudes. Hence,&amp;#160;an ice edge metric is then used to quantify the accuracy of&amp;#160;the coupled model MIZ edge at two ocean grid resolutions.&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt; &lt;/div&gt;

scholarly journals Arctic Mediterranean Exchanges: A consistent volume budget and trends in transports from two decades of observations

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Svein Østerhus ◽  
Rebecca Woodgate ◽  
Héðinn Valdimarsson ◽  
Bill Turrell ◽  
Laura de Steur ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Atlantic Water ◽  
Volume Transport ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Bering Strait ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Considerable Uncertainty ◽  
Denmark Strait

Abstract. The Arctic Mediterranean (AM) is the collective name for the Arctic Ocean, the Nordic Seas, and their adjacent shelf seas. Into this region, water enters through the Bering Strait (Pacific inflow) and through the passages across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (Atlantic inflow) and then modified within the AM. The modified waters leave the AM in several flow branches, which are grouped into two different categories: (1) overflow of dense water through the deep passages across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, and (2) outflow of light water – here termed surface outflow – on both sides of Greenland. These exchanges transport heat, salt, and other substances into and out of the AM and are important for conditions in the AM. They are also part of the global ocean circulation and climate system. Attempts to quantify the transports by various methods have been made for many years, but only recently, has the observational coverage become sufficiently complete to allow an integrated assessment of the AM-exchanges based solely on observations. In this study, we focus on the transport of water and have collected data on volume transport for as many AM-exchange branches as possible between 1993–2015. The total AM-import (oceanic inflows plus freshwater) is found to be 9.1 ± 0.7 Sv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1) and has a seasonal variation of amplitude close to 1 Sv and maximum import in October. Roughly one third of the imported water leaves the AM as surface outflow with the remaining two thirds leaving as overflow. The overflow is mainly produced from modified Atlantic inflow and around 70 % of the total Atlantic inflow is converted into overflow, indicating a strong coupling between these two exchanges. The surface outflow is fed from the Pacific inflow and freshwater, but is still ~ 2/3rds from modified Atlantic water. For the inflow branches and the two main overflow branches (Denmark Strait and Faroe Bank Channel), systematic monitoring of volume transport has been established since the mid-1990s and this allows us to estimate trends for the AM-exchanges as a whole. At the 95 % level, only the inflow of Pacific water through the Bering Strait showed a statistically significant trend, which was positive. Both the total AM-inflow and the combined transport of the two main overflow branches also showed trends consistent with strengthening, but they were not statistically significant. They do suggest, however, that any significant weakening of these flows during the last two decades is unlikely and the overall message is that the AM-exchanges remained remarkably stable in the period from the mid-1990s to the mid-2010s. The overflows are the densest source water for the deep limb of the North Atlantic part of the Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), and this conclusion argues that the reported weakening of the AMOC was not due to overflow weakening or reduced overturning in the AM. Although the combined data set has made it possible to establish a consistent budget for the AM-exchanges, the observational coverage for some of the branches is limited, which introduces considerable uncertainty. This lack of coverage is especially extreme for the surface outflows through the Denmark Strait, the overflow across the Iceland-Faroe Ridge, and the inflow over the Scottish shelf. We recommend that more effort is put into observing these flows as well as maintaining the monitoring systems established for the other exchange branches.

An Adjoint Analysis of the Meridional Overturning Circulation in a Hybrid Coupled Model

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (15) ◽  
pp. 3751-3767 ◽  
Author(s):  
Véronique Bugnion ◽  
Chris Hill ◽  
Peter H. Stone
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Conditions ◽  
Wind Stress ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Meridional Overturning

Abstract Multicentury sensitivities in a realistic geometry global ocean general circulation model are analyzed using an adjoint technique. This paper takes advantage of the adjoint model’s ability to generate maps of the sensitivity of a diagnostic (i.e., the meridional overturning’s strength) to all model parameters. This property of adjoints is used to review several theories, which have been elaborated to explain the strength of the North Atlantic’s meridional overturning. This paper demonstrates the profound impact of boundary conditions in permitting or suppressing mechanisms within a realistic model of the contemporary ocean circulation. For example, the so-called Drake Passage Effect in which wind stress in the Southern Ocean acts as the main driver of the overturning’s strength, is shown to be an artifact of boundary conditions that restore the ocean’s surface temperature and salinity toward prescribed climatologies. Advective transports from the Indian and Pacific basins play an important role in setting the strength of the overturning circulation under “mixed” boundary conditions, in which a flux of freshwater is specified at the ocean’s surface. The most “realistic” regime couples an atmospheric energy and moisture balance model to the ocean. In this configuration, inspection of the global maps of sensitivity to wind stress and diapycnal mixing suggests a significant role for near-surface Ekman processes in the Tropics. Buoyancy also plays an important role in setting the overturning’s strength, through direct thermal forcing near the sites of convection, or through the advection of salinity anomalies in the Atlantic basin.

scholarly journals High-latitude ocean ventilation and its role in Earth's climate transitions

2017 ◽  
Vol 375 (2102) ◽  
pp. 20160324 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto C. Naveira Garabato ◽  
Graeme A.  MacGilchrist ◽  
Peter J. Brown ◽  
D. Gwyn Evans ◽  
Andrew J. S. Meijers ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Climate System ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ocean Ventilation ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Warming World ◽  
Climate Transitions

The processes regulating ocean ventilation at high latitudes are re-examined based on a range of observations spanning all scales of ocean circulation, from the centimetre scales of turbulence to the basin scales of gyres. It is argued that high-latitude ocean ventilation is controlled by mechanisms that differ in fundamental ways from those that set the overturning circulation. This is contrary to the assumption of broad equivalence between the two that is commonly adopted in interpreting the role of the high-latitude oceans in Earth's climate transitions. Illustrations of how recognizing this distinction may change our view of the ocean's role in the climate system are offered. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Ocean ventilation and deoxygenation in a warming world’.

scholarly journals Risk of tipping the overturning circulation due to increasing rates of ice melt

2021 ◽  
Vol 118 (9) ◽  
pp. e2017989118
Author(s):  
Johannes Lohmann ◽  
Peter D. Ditlevsen
Keyword(s):  
Complex Systems ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Tipping Points ◽  
Parameter Change ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Critical Thresholds

Central elements of the climate system are at risk for crossing critical thresholds (so-called tipping points) due to future greenhouse gas emissions, leading to an abrupt transition to a qualitatively different climate with potentially catastrophic consequences. Tipping points are often associated with bifurcations, where a previously stable system state loses stability when a system parameter is increased above a well-defined critical value. However, in some cases such transitions can occur even before a parameter threshold is crossed, given that the parameter change is fast enough. It is not known whether this is the case in high-dimensional, complex systems like a state-of-the-art climate model or the real climate system. Using a global ocean model subject to freshwater forcing, we show that a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation can indeed be induced even by small-amplitude changes in the forcing, if the rate of change is fast enough. Identifying the location of critical thresholds in climate subsystems by slowly changing system parameters has been a core focus in assessing risks of abrupt climate change. This study suggests that such thresholds might not be relevant in practice, if parameter changes are not slow. Furthermore, we show that due to the chaotic dynamics of complex systems there is no well-defined critical rate of parameter change, which severely limits the predictability of the qualitative long-term behavior. The results show that the safe operating space of elements of the Earth system with respect to future emissions might be smaller than previously thought.

scholarly journals Wind-driven and buoyancy-driven circulation in the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean

2021 ◽  
Vol 477 (2256) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry L. Bryden
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Gulf Stream ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ekman Transport ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Western Boundary ◽  
Boundary Current ◽  
Deep Waters

Continuous observations of ocean circulation at 26°N in the subtropical Atlantic Ocean have been made since April 2004 to quantify the strength and variability in the Atlantic Meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), in which warm, upper waters flow northward and colder deep waters below 1100 m depth return southward. The principal components of the AMOC are northward western boundary current transport in the Gulf Stream and Antilles Current, northward surface Ekman transport and southward thermocline recirculation, all of which are generally considered to be part of the wind-driven circulation. Southward flowing deep waters below 1100 m depth are usually considered to represent the buoyancy-driven circulation. We argue that the Gulf Stream is partially wind-driven but also partially buoyancy-driven as it returns upper waters upwelled in the global ocean back to water mass formation regions in the northern Atlantic. Seasonal to interannual variations in the circulation at 26°N are principally wind-driven. Variability in the buoyancy-driven circulation occurred in a sharp reduction in 2009 in the southward flow of Lower North Atlantic Deep Water when its transport decreased by 30% from pre-2009 values. Over the 14-year observational period from 2004 to 2018, the AMOC declined by 2.4 Sv from 18.3 to 15.9 Sv.

scholarly journals Effects of eustatic sea-level change, ocean dynamics, and nutrient utilization on atmospheric <i>p</i>CO<sub>2</sub> and seawater composition over the last 130 000 years: a model study

2016 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 339-375 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Wallmann ◽  
B. Schneider ◽  
M. Sarnthein
Keyword(s):  
Southern Ocean ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Dissolved Inorganic Carbon ◽  
Nutrient Utilization ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Total Alkalinity ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Atmospheric Pco2

Abstract. We have developed and employed an Earth system model to explore the forcings of atmospheric pCO2 change and the chemical and isotopic evolution of seawater over the last glacial cycle. Concentrations of dissolved phosphorus (DP), reactive nitrogen, molecular oxygen, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), 13C-DIC, and 14C-DIC were calculated for 24 ocean boxes. The bi-directional water fluxes between these model boxes were derived from a 3-D circulation field of the modern ocean (Opa 8.2, NEMO) and tuned such that tracer distributions calculated by the box model were consistent with observational data from the modern ocean. To model the last 130 kyr, we employed records of past changes in sea-level, ocean circulation, and dust deposition. According to the model, about half of the glacial pCO2 drawdown may be attributed to marine regressions. The glacial sea-level low-stands implied steepened ocean margins, a reduced burial of particulate organic carbon, phosphorus, and neritic carbonate at the margin seafloor, a decline in benthic denitrification, and enhanced weathering of emerged shelf sediments. In turn, low-stands led to a distinct rise in the standing stocks of DIC, TA, and nutrients in the global ocean, promoted the glacial sequestration of atmospheric CO2 in the ocean, and added 13C- and 14C-depleted DIC to the ocean as recorded in benthic foraminifera signals. The other half of the glacial drop in pCO2 was linked to inferred shoaling of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and more efficient utilization of nutrients in the Southern Ocean. The diminished ventilation of deep water in the glacial Atlantic and Southern Ocean led to significant 14C depletions with respect to the atmosphere. According to our model, the deglacial rapid and stepwise rise in atmospheric pCO2 was induced by upwelling both in the Southern Ocean and subarctic North Pacific and promoted by a drop in nutrient utilization in the Southern Ocean. The deglacial sea-level rise led to a gradual decline in nutrient, DIC, and TA stocks, a slow change due to the large size and extended residence times of dissolved chemical species in the ocean. Thus, the rapid deglacial rise in pCO2 can be explained by fast changes in ocean dynamics and nutrient utilization whereas the gradual pCO2 rise over the Holocene may be linked to the slow drop in nutrient and TA stocks that continued to promote an ongoing CO2 transfer from the ocean into the atmosphere.

Sensitivity of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to Model Resolution in CMIP6 HighResMIP Simulations

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dorotea Iovino ◽  
Malcolm J. Roberts ◽  
Laura C. Jackson ◽  
Christopher D. Roberts ◽  
Virna Meccia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heat Transport ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Climate Modelling ◽  
Florida Current ◽  
Model Resolution ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning

&lt;p&gt;The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key component of the three-dimensional ocean circulation that transports warm and salty water northward, and exports cold and dense water from the Arctic southward.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The simulated AMOC in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models (both coupled and ocean-only) has been studied extensively. However, correctly simulating the AMOC with these models remains a challenge for the climate modelling community. One model aspect that can affect the AMOC representation is the model&amp;#160;resolution (i.e. grid spacing).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Here, we examine key aspects of the North Atlantic Ocean circulation using a multi-model, multi-resolution ensemble based on the CMIP6 HighResMIP coupled experiments.&amp;#160;The AMOC and associated heat transport tend to become stronger as&amp;#160;model resolution increases, particularly when the ocean resolution changes from non-eddying to eddy-present and eddy-rich. However, the circulation remains too&amp;#160;shallow compared to observations for most models, and this, together with temperature biases, cause the northward&amp;#160;heat transport to be too low for a given overturning&amp;#160;strength.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In the period 2015-2050, the overturning circulation tends to decline more rapidly in the higher&amp;#160;resolution models by more than 20% compared to the control state, which is related to both themean state and to the subpolar gyre contribution to deep water formation. The main part of the&amp;#160;decline comes from the Florida Current component of the circulation.&lt;/p&gt;

The Norwegian node for the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thibaut Barreyre ◽  
Ilker Fer ◽  
Bénédicte Ferré
Keyword(s):  
Water Column ◽  
Ocean Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Water Mass ◽  
Critical Role ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Fram Strait ◽  
Nordic Seas

&lt;p&gt;NorEMSO is a coordinated, large-scale deep-ocean observation facility to establish the Norwegian node for the European Multidisciplinary Seafloor and water column Observatory (EMSO). The project aims to explore the under-sampled Nordic Seas to gain a better understanding of the critical role that they play in our climate system and global ocean circulation. An overarching scientific objective is to better understand the drivers for the temporal and spatial changes of water mass transformations, ocean circulation, acidification and thermo-chemical exchanges at the seafloor in the Nordic Seas, and to contribute to improvement of models and forecasting by producing and making available high quality, near real time data. NorEMSO will achieve this by combining expansion of existing and establishment of new observatory network infrastructure, as well as its coordination and integration into EMSO.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;NorEMSO comprises of three main components: moored observatories, gliders, and seafloor and water column observatory at the Mohn Ridge (EMSO-Mohn).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Moored observation systems include an array of four moored observatories located at key positions in the Nordic Seas (Svin&amp;#248;y, Station M, South Cape, and central Fram Strait).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Gliders will be operated along five transects across both the Norwegian and the Greenland Seas to monitor circulation and water mass properties at those key locations. Transects in the Norwegian and Lofoten basins will focus on monitoring the Norwegian Atlantic Current, and a transect in Fram Strait will monitor properties and variability in the return Atlantic Water along the Polar Front in the northern Nordic Seas. In addition, transects in the Greenland and Iceland Seas will address the water mass transformation processes through wintertime open ocean convection, and the southbound transport of surface water from the Arctic Ocean and dense water that feeds the lower limb of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the East Greenland Current.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;EMSO-Mohn will establish, at the newly discovered hydrothermal site on the Mohn Ridge, a fixed-point seabed-water-column-coupled and wireless observatory with a multidisciplinary approach &amp;#8211; from geophysics and physical oceanography to ecology and microbiology. It is primarily directed at understanding hydrothermal fluxes and associated hydrothermal plume dynamics in the water column and how it disperses in an oceanographic front over the Mohn Ridge.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Following EMSO philosophy, NorEMSO will provide data and platforms to a large and diverse group of users, from scientists and industries to institutions and policy makers. The observations will serve climate research, ocean circulation understanding, numerical operational models, design of environmental policies, and education.&lt;/p&gt;

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