scholarly journals Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerstin Engström ◽  
Mats Lindeskog ◽  
Stefan Olin ◽  
John Hassler ◽  
Benjamin Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Terrestrial Biosphere ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit climate change-induced damage to the global economy and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining a climate-economy model, a socio-economic land-use model and an ecosystem model. We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) framework. Taking emissions from the land-use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 "Taking the green road"). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate mitigation strategies in the energy sector on global land use and carbon balance

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 773-799 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kerstin Engström ◽  
Mats Lindeskog ◽  
Stefan Olin ◽  
John Hassler ◽  
Benjamin Smith
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Terrestrial Biosphere ◽  
Global Carbon

Abstract. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions to limit damage to the global economy climate-change-induced and secure the livelihoods of future generations requires ambitious mitigation strategies. The introduction of a global carbon tax on fossil fuels is tested here as a mitigation strategy to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations and radiative forcing. Taxation of fossil fuels potentially leads to changed composition of energy sources, including a larger relative contribution from bioenergy. Further, the introduction of a mitigation strategy reduces climate-change-induced damage to the global economy, and thus can indirectly affect consumption patterns and investments in agricultural technologies and yield enhancement. Here we assess the implications of changes in bioenergy demand as well as the indirectly caused changes in consumption and crop yields for global and national cropland area and terrestrial biosphere carbon balance. We apply a novel integrated assessment modelling framework, combining three previously published models (a climate–economy model, a socio-economic land use model and an ecosystem model). We develop reference and mitigation scenarios based on the narratives and key elements of the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs). Taking emissions from the land use sector into account, we find that the introduction of a global carbon tax on the fossil fuel sector is an effective mitigation strategy only for scenarios with low population development and strong sustainability criteria (SSP1 Taking the green road). For scenarios with high population growth, low technological development and bioenergy production the high demand for cropland causes the terrestrial biosphere to switch from being a carbon sink to a source by the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Soil carbon debt of 12,000 years of human land use

2017 ◽  
Vol 114 (36) ◽  
pp. 9575-9580 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Sanderman ◽  
Tomislav Hengl ◽  
Gregory J. Fiske
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Global Environment ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Grazing Land ◽  
The Past ◽  
Human Land Use ◽  
History Database ◽  
Global Carbon

Human appropriation of land for agriculture has greatly altered the terrestrial carbon balance, creating a large but uncertain carbon debt in soils. Estimating the size and spatial distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) loss due to land use and land cover change has been difficult but is a critical step in understanding whether SOC sequestration can be an effective climate mitigation strategy. In this study, a machine learning-based model was fitted using a global compilation of SOC data and the History Database of the Global Environment (HYDE) land use data in combination with climatic, landform and lithology covariates. Model results compared favorably with a global compilation of paired plot studies. Projection of this model onto a world without agriculture indicated a global carbon debt due to agriculture of 133 Pg C for the top 2 m of soil, with the rate of loss increasing dramatically in the past 200 years. The HYDE classes “grazing” and “cropland” contributed nearly equally to the loss of SOC. There were higher percent SOC losses on cropland but since more than twice as much land is grazed, slightly higher total losses were found from grazing land. Important spatial patterns of SOC loss were found: Hotspots of SOC loss coincided with some major cropping regions as well as semiarid grazing regions, while other major agricultural zones showed small losses and even net gains in SOC. This analysis has demonstrated that there are identifiable regions which can be targeted for SOC restoration efforts.

scholarly journals Can biofuels be a solution to climate change? The implications of land use change-related emissions for policy

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Khanna ◽  
Christine L. Crago ◽  
Mairi Black
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Land Use Changes ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Payback Period ◽  
Sustainable Land Use ◽  
Ghg Mitigation ◽  
Modelling Assumptions ◽  
Global Carbon

Biofuels have gained increasing attention as an alternative to fossil fuels for several reasons, one of which is their potential to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector. Recent studies have questioned the validity of claims about the potential of biofuels to reduce GHG emissions relative to the liquid fossil fuels they are replacing when emissions owing to direct (DLUC) and indirect land use changes (ILUC) that accompany biofuels are included in the life cycle GHG intensity of biofuels. Studies estimate that the GHG emissions released from ILUC could more than offset the direct GHG savings by producing biofuels and replacing liquid fossil fuels and create a ‘carbon debt’ with a long payback period. The estimates of this payback period, however, vary widely across biofuels from different feedstocks and even for a single biofuel across different modelling assumptions. In the case of corn ethanol, this payback period is found to range from 15 to 200 years. We discuss the challenges in estimating the ILUC effect of a biofuel and differences across biofuels, and its sensitivity to the assumptions and policy scenarios considered by different economic models. We also discuss the implications of ILUC for designing policies that promote biofuels and seek to reduce GHG emissions. In a first-best setting, a global carbon tax is needed to set both DLUC and ILUC emissions to their optimal levels. However, it is unclear whether unilateral GHG mitigation policies, even if they penalize the ILUC-related emissions, would increase social welfare and lead to optimal emission levels. In the absence of a global carbon tax, incentivizing sustainable land use practices through certification standards, government regulations and market-based pressures may be a viable option for reducing ILUC.

scholarly journals Post COVID-19 Recovery and 2050 Climate Change Targets: Changing the Emphasis from Promotion of Renewables to Mandated Curtailment of Fossil Fuels in the EU Policies

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1347
Author(s):  
Kyriakos Maniatis ◽  
David Chiaramonti ◽  
Eric van den Heuvel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
European Union ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Climate Change Policy ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
The European Union

The present work considers the dramatic changes the COVID-19 pandemic has brought to the global economy, with particular emphasis on energy. Focusing on the European Union, the article discusses the opportunities policy makers can implement to reduce the climate impacts and achieve the Paris Agreement 2050 targets. The analysis specifically looks at the fossil fuels industry and the future of the fossil sector post COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis first revises the fossil fuel sector, and then considers the need for a shift of the global climate change policy from promoting the deployment of renewable energy sources to curtailing the use of fossil fuels. This will be a change to the current global approach, from a relative passive one to a strategically dynamic and proactive one. Such a curtailment should be based on actual volumes of fossil fuels used and not on percentages. Finally, conclusions are preliminary applied to the European Union policies for net zero by 2050 based on a two-fold strategy: continuing and reinforcing the implementation of the Renewable Energy Directive to 2035, while adopting a new directive for fixed and over time increasing curtailment of fossils as of 2025 until 2050.

Reexamine China’s terrestrial ecosystem carbon balance under land use-type and climate change

2021 ◽  
Vol 102 ◽  
pp. 105275
Author(s):  
Jiasheng Li ◽  
Xiaomin Guo ◽  
Xiaowei Chuai ◽  
Fangjian Xie ◽  
Feng Yang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystem ◽  
Land Use Type ◽  
Ecosystem Carbon ◽  
Ecosystem Carbon Balance

The Paradox of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation in Danish Housing

2012 ◽  
Vol 37 (4) ◽  
pp. 19-28
Author(s):  
Rob Marsh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Theoretical Study ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Mitigation Strategy ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Space Heating ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Passive Solar

Climate change means that buildings must greatly reduce their energy consumption. It is however paradoxical that climate mitigation in Denmark has created negative energy and indoor climate problems in housing that may be made worse by climate change. A literature review has been carried out of housing schemes where climate mitigation was sought through reduced space heating demand, and it is shown that extensive problems with overheating exist. A theoretical study of regulative and design strategies for climate mitigation in new build housing has therefore been carried out, and it is shown that reducing space heating with high levels of thermal insulation and passive solar energy results in overheating and a growing demand for cooling. Climate change is expected to reduce space heating and increase cooling demand in housing. An analysis of new build housing using passive solar energy as a climate mitigation strategy has therefore been carried out in relation to future climate change scenarios. It is shown that severe indoor comfort problems can occur, questioning the relevance of passive solar energy as a climate mitigation strategy. In conclusion, a theoretical study of the interplay between climate adaptation and mitigation strategies is carried out, with a cross-disciplinary focus on users, passive design and active technologies. It is shown that the cumulative use of these strategies can create an adaptation buffer, thus eliminating problems with overheating and reducing energy consumption. New build housing should therefore be designed in relation to both current and future climate scenarios to show that the climate mitigation strategies ensure climate adaptation.

scholarly journals The CarbonTracker Data Assimilation System for CO<sub>2</sub> and <i>δ</i><sup>13</sup>C (CTDAS-C13 v1.0): retrieving information on land–atmosphere exchange processes

2018 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 283-304 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ivar R. van der Velde ◽  
John B. Miller ◽  
Michiel K. van der Molen ◽  
Pieter P. Tans ◽  
Bruce H. Vaughn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Carbon Balance ◽  
Modular Design ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Co2 Exchange ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Terrestrial Biosphere ◽  
Global Carbon ◽  
Data Assimilation System ◽  
Assimilation System

Abstract. To improve our understanding of the global carbon balance and its representation in terrestrial biosphere models, we present here a first dual-species application of the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation System (CTDAS). The system's modular design allows for assimilating multiple atmospheric trace gases simultaneously to infer exchange fluxes at the Earth surface. In the prototype discussed here, we interpret signals recorded in observed carbon dioxide (CO2) along with observed ratios of its stable isotopologues 13CO2∕12CO2 (δ13C). The latter is in particular a valuable tracer to untangle CO2 exchange from land and oceans. Potentially, it can also be used as a proxy for continent-wide drought stress in plants, largely because the ratio of 13CO2 and 12CO2 molecules removed from the atmosphere by plants is dependent on moisture conditions.The dual-species CTDAS system varies the net exchange fluxes of both 13CO2 and CO2 in ocean and terrestrial biosphere models to create an ensemble of 13CO2 and CO2 fluxes that propagates through an atmospheric transport model. Based on differences between observed and simulated 13CO2 and CO2 mole fractions (and thus δ13C) our Bayesian minimization approach solves for weekly adjustments to both net fluxes and isotopic terrestrial discrimination that minimizes the difference between observed and estimated mole fractions.With this system, we are able to estimate changes in terrestrial δ13C exchange on seasonal and continental scales in the Northern Hemisphere where the observational network is most dense. Our results indicate a decrease in stomatal conductance on a continent-wide scale during a severe drought. These changes could only be detected after applying combined atmospheric CO2 and δ13C constraints as done in this work. The additional constraints on surface CO2 exchange from δ13C observations neither affected the estimated carbon fluxes nor compromised our ability to match observed CO2 variations. The prototype presented here can be of great benefit not only to study the global carbon balance but also to potentially function as a data-driven diagnostic to assess multiple leaf-level exchange parameterizations in carbon-climate models that influence the CO2, water, isotope, and energy balance.

scholarly journals The Land Use and Cover Change in Miombo Woodlands under Community Based Forest Management and Its Implication to Climate Change Mitigation: A Case of Southern Highlands of Tanzania

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Z. J. Lupala ◽  
L. P. Lusambo ◽  
Y. M. Ngaga ◽  
Angelingis A. Makatta
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Miombo Woodlands ◽  
Miombo Woodland ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Cover Density ◽  
Change Mitigation ◽  
Land Use And Cover

In Tanzania, miombo woodland is the most significant forest vegetation with both ecological and socioeconomic importance. The vegetation has been threatened from land use and cover change due to unsustainable utilization. Over the past two decades, community based forest management (CBFM) has been practiced to address the problem. Given the current need to mitigate global climate change, little is known on the influence of CBFM to the land use and cover change in miombo woodlands and therefore compromising climate change mitigation strategies. This study explored the dynamic of land use and covers change and biomass due to CBFM and established the implication to climate change mitigation. The study revealed increasing miombo woodland cover density with decreasing unsustainable utilization. The observed improvement in cover density and biomass provides potential for climate change mitigation strategies. CBFM also developed solidarity, cohesion, and social control of miombo woodlands illegal extraction. This further enhances permanence, reduces leakage, and increases accountability requirement for carbon credits. Collectively with these promising results, good land use plan at village level and introduction of alternative income generating activities can be among the best options to further reduce land use change and biomass loss in miombo woodlands.

scholarly journals The Consequences of Uncertainty: Climate Sensitivity and Economic Sensitivity to the Climate

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 189-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Hassler ◽  
Per Krusell ◽  
Conny Olovsson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Climate Sensitivity ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Green Energy ◽  
Integrated Assessment Model ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
Negative Impacts

We construct an integrated assessment model with multiple energy sources—two fossil fuels and green energy—and use it to evaluate ranges of plausible estimates for the climate sensitivity, as well as for the sensitivity of the economy to climate change. Rather than focusing explicitly on uncertainty, we look at extreme scenarios defined by the upper and lower limits given in available studies in the literature. We compare optimal policy with laissez faire, and we point out the possible policy errors that could arise. By far the largest policy error arises when the climate policy is overly passive; overly zealous climate policy (i.e., a high carbon tax applied when climate change and its negative impacts on the economy are very limited) does not hurt the economy much as there is considerable substitutability between fossil and nonfossil energy sources.

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