scholarly journals Setting-up an hydrometeorological early warning service in Niger: lessons learnt on the co-development approach 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vieri Tarchiani ◽  
Giovanni Massazza ◽  
Maurizio Rosso ◽  
Alessandro Pezzoli ◽  
Mohamed Housseini Ibrahim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
International Standards ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Sendai Framework ◽  
Lessons Learnt

<p>During the last 20 years, floods have become a major hazard in West Africa, particularly in the Sahelian belt, affecting livelihoods, infrastructure and production systems, and hence heavily impacting on sustainable development. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 recognized Climate Services (CS) as a powerful tool for more effective disaster preparedness. The European research and innovation Roadmap for CS expands their contribution, particularly “hydrometeorological services”, to the Sendai Framework. From this convergence, Hydrometeorological Early Warning Systems (EWS) become a strategic target and a building block of preparedness to hydrometeorological risks in developed and developing countries. In West Africa, EWS for floods are in place only for the main rivers and are conceived mainly top-down and hazard centered, lacking links with exposed communities and expected impacts. These gaps reduce the effectiveness of a flood EWS, while engaging local communities since de beginning through a co-production process can improve the effectiveness and ensure better response in case of alert.</p><p>Our study aims to present the lessons learnt from the set-up of a Community and Impact Based Flood EWS on the Sirba River in Niger. The service was developed with stakeholders at different levels, leveraging on existing resources and knowledge, using simple but effective approaches and integrating state-of-the-art hydro-meteorological science in a decisional scheme of Sahelian rural areas. This mechanism can be replicable in different contexts characterized by knowledge and structural deficits, by creating a better capacity to exchange data and information and by directly connecting available technical capabilities with the local level. The participatory approach allowed the beneficiaries to define the rules of the system, which, in any case, needed to be consistent with the national legislation and internationally recognized best practices.</p><p>The study suggests that it is not necessary to develop complex forecasting tools, while it can be preferable to enhance those already operating and calibrate them on the local scale through risk thresholds, field observations and potential impacts using flood scenarios. The strength of simplicity also lies in not having to spread complex messages, but simply the reference risk scenario, and finally its color-code (according to the international standards of ISO 22324:2015), which already embeds all other information including potential impacts. The simple and integrated approach illustrated in this case study, bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches, can inspire Governments, local administrations and development partners to invest in the improvement of existing tools and knowledge and in strengthening cooperation, collaboration and coordination to reduce hazards’ impacts and sustain the development of rural and urban areas.</p>

scholarly journals Community and Impact Based Early Warning System for Flood Risk Preparedness: The Experience of the Sirba River in Niger

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 1802 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vieri Tarchiani ◽  
Giovanni Massazza ◽  
Maurizio Rosso ◽  
Maurizio Tiepolo ◽  
Alessandro Pezzoli ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Community Monitoring ◽  
Operational Decision Making ◽  
Set Up

Floods have recently become a major hazard in West Africa (WA) in terms of both their magnitude and frequency. They affect livelihoods, infrastructure and production systems, hence impacting on Sustainable Development (SD). Early Warning Systems (EWS) for floods that properly address all four EWS components, while also being community and impact-based, do not yet exist in WA. Existing systems address only the main rivers, are conceived in a top-down manner and are hazard-centered. This study on the Sirba river in Niger aims to demonstrate that an operational community and impact-based EWS for floods can be set up by leveraging the existing tools, local stakeholders and knowledge. The main finding of the study is that bridging the gap between top-down and bottom-up approaches is possible by directly connecting the available technical capabilities with the local level through a participatory approach. This allows the beneficiaries to define the rules that will develop the whole system, strengthening their ability to understand the information and take action. Moreover, the integration of hydrological forecasts and observations with the community monitoring and preparedness system provides a lead time suitable for operational decision-making at national and local levels. The study points out the need for the commitment of governments to the transboundary sharing of flood information for EWS and SD.

Forecasting agropastoral water deficits in West Africa to support food insecurity early warning

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shraddhanand Shukla ◽  
Kathryn Grace ◽  
Abdou Ali ◽  
Daniel McEvoy ◽  
William Turnet ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Food Insecurity ◽  
Water Deficit ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Water Deficits ◽  
Rainfed Farming ◽  
Forecasting System

<p>West Africa (WA) is prone to food insecurity due to climate-, economic-, conflict-related shocks, as well as high population growth and lack of proper adaptation strategies. As per the USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network, which uses Integrated Phase Classification to classify acute food insecurity (AFI), between 2011 and early 2020, several parts of WA reported the “Stressed” phase of AFI >30% of the time. Food security and livelihood in the region relies substantially on rainfed farming and small-scale water holes. Droughts lead to water deficits resulting in adverse impacts on food production, human and livestock health and agricultural labor opportunities, leading to or worsening of food insecurity. Thus far, the focus of climate, drought outlooks and their impacts, to support food insecurity early warning in this region has mainly been on the seasonal scale (i.e., 3-6 months in future) forecasts whereas use of subseasonal scale (2-4 weeks in future) forecasts has been negligible. Recent advances in routine production (i.e. weekly) and open access to subseasonal forecasts provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve the existing climate services in the region by focusing on the impacts of subseasonal climate characteristics on food insecurity in the region. Here we report on an ongoing project with the AGRiculture HYdrology and METeorology Regional Centre (SERVIR’s WA Hub) that aims to develop a subseasonal water deficit forecasting system to support food insecurity early warning in the region. The presentation will describe  (i) the results of an ongoing analysis examining the influence of subseasonal climate characteristics (e.g. monthly climate variability, length of dry or wet spell) on food insecurity, as measures by different food insecurity indicators (such as vegetation index, food insecurity reports and household level health and malnutrition reports) and (ii) the major accomplishments towards implementation of the water deficit forecasting system, including development and evaluation of prototype products, (iii) capacity building and stakeholder engagement activities with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services across the region. </p>

scholarly journals Risk-Based Early Warning System for Pluvial Flash Floods: Approaches and Foundations

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 127 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julian Hofmann ◽  
Holger Schüttrumpf
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Flash Floods ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Heavy Rainfall Event

In times of increasing weather extremes and expanding vulnerable cities, a significant risk to civilian security is posed by heavy rainfall induced flash floods. In contrast to river floods, pluvial flash floods can occur anytime, anywhere and vary enormously due to both terrain and climate factors. Current early warning systems (EWS) are based largely on measuring rainfall intensity or monitoring water levels, whereby the real danger due to urban torrential floods is just as insufficiently considered as the vulnerability of the physical infrastructure. For this reason, this article presents a concept for a risk-based EWS as one integral component of a multi-functional pluvial flood information system (MPFIS). Taking both the pluvial flood hazard as well as the damage potential into account, the EWS identifies the urban areas particularly affected by a forecasted heavy rainfall event and issues object-precise warnings in real-time. Further, the MPFIS performs a georeferenced documentation of occurred events as well as a systematic risk analysis, which at the same time forms the foundation of the proposed EWS. Based on a case study in the German city of Aachen and the event of 29 May 2018, the operation principle of the integrated information system is illustrated.

scholarly journals Forecasting and communication key elements for low-cost fluvial flooding early warning system in urban areas

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 4143
Author(s):  
Melisa Acosta-Coll ◽  
Andres Solano-Escorcia ◽  
Lilia Ortega-Gonzalez ◽  
Ronald Zamora-Musa
Keyword(s):  
Power Consumption ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Signal To Noise Ratio ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Communication Protocols ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
High Energy ◽  
The Difference

Fluvial flooding occurs when a river overspills its banks due to excessive rainfall, and it is the most common flood event. In urban areas, the increment of urbanization makes communities more susceptible to fluvial flooding since the excess of impervious surfaces reduced the natural permeable areas. As flood prevention strategies, early warning systems (EWS) are used to reduce damage and protect people, but key elements need to be selected. This manuscript proposes the monitoring instruments, communication protocols, and media to forecast and disseminate EWS alerts efficiently during fluvial floods in urban areas. First, we conducted a systematic review of different EWS architectures for fluvial floods in urban areas and identified that not all projects monitor the most important variables related to the formation of fluvial floods and most use communication protocols with high-energy consumption. ZigBee and LoRaWAN are the communication protocols with lower power consumption from the review, and to determine which technology has better performance in urban areas, two wireless sensor networks were deployed and simulated in two urban areas susceptible to fluvial floods using Radio Mobile software. The results showed that although Zigbee technology has better-received signal strength, the difference with LoRAWAN is lower than 2 dBm, but LoRaWAN has a better signal-to-noise ratio, power consumption, coverage, and deployment cost.

Impact-based early warning for pluvial floods

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktor Rözer ◽  
Aaron Peche ◽  
Simon Berkhahn ◽  
Yu Feng ◽  
Lothar Fuchs ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Residential Buildings ◽  
Damage Model ◽  
Computation Time ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Extreme Rainfall Event ◽  
Storm Events ◽  
Validation Data ◽  
Model Chain

<p>Pluvial floods in urban areas are caused by local, fast storm events with very high rainfall rates, which lead to inundation of streets and buildings before the storm water reaches a watercourse.  An increase in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events and an on-going urbanization may further increase the risk of pluvial flooding in many urban areas.  Current early warning systems for pluvial floods are limited to rainfall predictions with fixed thresholds for rainfall duration and intensity and often do not provide the necessary information to effectively protect people and goods.  We present a proof-of-concept for an impact-based early warning system for pluvial floods. </p><p>Using a model chain consisting of a rainfall forecast, an inundation, a contaminant transport and a damage model, we are able to provide predictions for the expected rainfall, the inundated areas, spreading of potential contamination and the expected damage to residential buildings. We use a neural network-based inundation model, which significantly reduces the computation time of the model chain.  To demonstrate the feasibility, we perform a hindcast of a recent pluvial flood event in an urban area in Germany.  The required spatio-temporal accuracy of rainfall forecasts is still a major challenge, but our results show that reliable impact-based warnings can be issued up to 5 minutes before the peak of an extreme rainfall event.  To effectively disseminate the warnings issued by the model chain we propose a two-way mobile warning application that allows for the collection of real-time validation data.</p>

scholarly journals Application of Chemical Monitoring and Public Alarm Systems to Reduce Public Vulnerability to Major Accidents Involving Dangerous Substances

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1528
Author(s):  
Zsolt Cimer ◽  
Gyula Vass ◽  
Attila Zsitnyányi ◽  
Lajos Kátai-Urbán
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Safety System ◽  
Toxic Substances ◽  
Industrial Facilities ◽  
Chemical Monitoring ◽  
Alarm Systems ◽  
Dangerous Substances ◽  
Local Safety

As a result of economic development and an increase in the volume of industrial production, the use of dangerous substances is increasing despite the fact that most industrial facilities are committed to the principles of environmental protection and sustainable development. Protection of human health and the environment is ensured at the local level by the local safety system. Major accidents typically have an off-site impact that also affects the general public. The most significant asymmetric event is when toxic substances are release into a populated area following a major accident. Early warning systems can significantly reduce the harmful consequences of major accidents that may occur. The operation of a reliable and effective chemical monitoring and public alarm system can be used as a basic device of defence. This ultimately means restoring the symmetry of the local safety system. It was an important scientific objective in Hungary to identify the facilities endangering the population where it is necessary to install chemical monitoring and early warning external protection systems. In this context, the main objective of this study was to present dangerous plant identification methodology and to analyse and evaluate the results of the application of this methodology.

scholarly journals MIDAS: A New Integrated Flood Early Warning System for the Miño River

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 2319 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diego Fernández-Nóvoa ◽  
Orlando García-Feal ◽  
José González-Cao ◽  
Carlos de Gonzalo ◽  
José Antonio Rodríguez-Suárez ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Precipitation Forecast ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Flood Alert ◽  
The Impact

Early warning systems have become an essential tool to mitigate the impact of river floods, whose frequency and magnitude have increased during the last few decades as a consequence of climate change. In this context, the Miño River Flood Alert System (MIDAS) early warning system has been developed for the Miño River (Galicia, NW Spain), whose flood events have historically caused severe damage in urban areas and are expected to increase in intensity in the next decades. MIDAS is integrated by a hydrologic (HEC-HMS) and a hydraulic (Iber+) model using precipitation forecast as input data. The system runs automatically and is governed by a set of Python scripts. When any hazard is detected, an alert is issued by the system, including detailed hazards maps, to help decision makers to take precise and effective mitigation measures. Statistical analysis supports the accuracy of hydrologic and hydraulic modules implemented to forecast river flow and flooded critical areas during the analyzed period of time, including some of the most extreme events registered in the Miño River. In fact, MIDAS has proven to be capable of predicting most of the alert situations occurred during the study period, showing its capability to anticipate risk situations.

A review of the effectiveness of drought warning communication and dissemination in Malawi

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexia Calvel ◽  
Micha Werner ◽  
Marc van den Homberg ◽  
Hans van der Kwast ◽  
Andrés Cabrera Flamini ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Text Messages ◽  
Government Officials ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Cumulative Impact ◽  
High Dependency ◽  
Made In ◽  
Early Warnings

<p>Droughts constitute one of the major and complex natural hazards that may lead to food insecurity due to its long-term and cumulative impact, compounded by the difficulty of drought being predicted. Efforts to improve early warning systems are being conducted to help reduce the impacts caused by drought events, and although significant advances have been made in the forecasting of drought, provision of actionable warning that leads to effective response is challenging due to a range of factors.  In this study we aim to improve our understanding of how people-centred warning communication and dissemination is being carried out for drought warning in Malawi.  Our methodology is based on five focus group discussions with farmers and 25 semi-structured interviews with various government officials, as well as with representatives from UNDP, WFP and NGOs. The analysis of these interviews and discussions is based on a qualitative approach using the concept of grounded theory and content analysis; to better understand the organisational structure, communication processes and the ability of warnings triggering actions by farmers and NGOs.</p><p>Our results identified that both within the farming communities as with the NGO’s and working at the local level there is a different perception than expected of what constitutes drought. Droughts are considered to be events that cause the failure of crops, which relates primarily to the occurrence of prolonged dry spells following the planting season, fall army worms and even the occurrence of floods. Consistently, drought warnings that are disseminated at the local level have been found to focus on these aspects. Moreover, it was found that although these warnings do trigger actions, they do so only to a certain extent. Daily weather forecast are not being used by farmers due to the high uncertainty associated with these predictions. For NGOs, drought early warnings are used in combination with the famine early warnings to trigger early actions.</p><p>Communication channels and processes were found to be well adapted to local conditions and to disseminate the consistent drought warnings and guidance to end-users. This has led to improved trust towards drought early warnings received. However, the high level of illiteracy and lack of understanding of the link between impacts and weather information render the seasonal forecast and text-messages unusable to farmers, with agricultural extension officers and the community-radios the preferred channels of communication. Organisational structures and processes appear to be relatively clear. Nevertheless, feedback mechanisms were found to be only scantily implemented due to the lack documentation on local perceptions and indigenous knowledge. Overall our results show that progress has been made in meeting the requirements for a people-centred early warning. However, external challenges such as a lack of local funds which has led to a high dependency on donors or the frequent changes of government officials affect the well-development of such an approach.  </p>

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